Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis - 6th Oct 21
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom - 6th Oct 21
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes - 6th Oct 21
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back - 6th Oct 21
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? - 5th Oct 21
Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia - 5th Oct 21
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? - 5th Oct 21
Fractal Design Meshify S2, Best PC Case Review, Build Quality, Airflow etc. - 5th Oct 21
Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 4th Oct 21
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 4th Oct 21
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern - 4th Oct 21
US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio - 4th Oct 21
Aptorum Group - APM - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 3rd Oct 21
US Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care - 3rd Oct 21
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
Original Oculus VR HeadSet Rift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus - 3rd Oct 21
Microsoft Stock Valuation 2021 vs 2000 Bubble - Buy Sell or Hold Invest Analysis - 1st Oct 21
How to profit off the Acquisition spree in Fintech Stocks - 1st Oct 21
�� Halloween 2021 TESCO Shopping Before the Next Big Panic Buying! �� - 1st Oct 2
The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online - 1st Oct 21
BioDelivery Sciences International - BDSI - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 30th Sep 21
America’s Revolving-Door Politics Behind the Fall of US-Sino Ties - 30th Sep 21
Dovish to Hawkish Fed: Sounds Bearish for Gold - 30th Sep 21
Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed - 30th Sep 21
Should you include ESG investments in your portfolio? - 30th Sep 21
Takeda - TAK - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 29th Sep 21
Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation - 29th Sep 21
Why Workers Are NOT Returning to Work as Lockdown's End - Wage Slaves Rebellion - 29th Sep 21
UK Fuel PANIC! Fighting at the Petrol Pumps! As Lemmings Create a New Crisis - 29th Sep 21
Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November! - 29th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

A “Silver” Lining In The Precious Metals Market

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017 Nov 10, 2017 - 09:24 AM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Commodities

When I look at the 3 charts that I follow in the metals complex, they seem to be telling a different story today, at least in their micro structures.

Silver seems to have broken out of its downtrend, and can be viewed as having completed wave i of its (c) wave to the target box above. GLD seems to be stuck in neutral, with the same “potential” structure as silver, but without as much clarity to its micro count as silver has potentially presented.


And, then we are left with the GDX. As long as the GDX remains below the 23.05 level, it still has a smaller degree set up to test the 22 region before a rally may ensue.

So, on Friday (Nov 3), GDX has now dropped down and provided us the lower low I was looking for this past week right into the support region I noted last weekend between 21.95-22.30. Moreover, both gold and silver have now pulled back from their rallies begun this past week, and have still retained a set up to rally in the upcoming week.

Based upon the smaller degree wave counts, it certainly still seems as though the miners and the metals are potentially in different patterns, with the upcoming week set up to provide us further confirmation of this potential.

As I have noted for the last several weeks, silver really seems to be the more telling of the metals charts. I have been following a potential count which suggests that a (c) wave rally within a b-wave of wave ii is taking shape. And, I have noted that as long as we hold over the 16.40-16.50 support region, we can rally back up towards the September highs.

This past week, silver broke out of its downtrend channel, and suggested that the (b) wave of the b-wave had completed, and that we also completed wave i of the (c) wave of the b-wave rally. While the micro structure can still support one more small drop before a rally may begin, as long as we hold over 16.65, my expectation is to see us rally back up towards at least the 17.85 region.

However, if silver were to break down below the 16.65 level, it would break its immediate upside set up, and place this pattern into serious question. And, if the market would then continue below the 16.30 level, it certainly opens the door for a much larger decline to be seen in silver. So, please remember that my primary expectation is that any rally we see is likely going to be corrective, which means you must remain quite vigilant, as it is quite possible that the market may not provide us with the larger bounce that I ideally want to see, despite my primary expectation. Along these lines, I have now provided you with the parameters which would suggest the market may be dropping a lot deeper than I had initially expected.

Now, as I have mentioned in the title to the article, I am starting to see a “silver lining” in the market action, and it relates to the miners rather than silver itself. I have warned that GDX could see as much as a 30% decline down to the 17 region once we broke below the upper support in September. And, that was based partly upon my read of the ABX, which is one of the major holdings within the GDX. This past week, ABX has dropped almost to the point where it would complete wave iii of (c), as you can see from the attached chart of the ABX. (Also, please note that I have dropped down our resistance region on the ABX chart). Yet, GDX has not seen a commensurate drop alongside of the ABX. While GDX may certainly catch up in the coming week or two, once ABX begins its wave iv bounce, it will likely pull the GDX up with it. And, should that wave iv begin in the coming week or so, it may suggest that the GDX may not break below the 21 region.

So, while we certainly had a set up to see the GDX drop to much lower levels, the recent relative strength we have seen in the GDX as compared to the ABX may suggest that it may not see as deep a drop for which it had been set up over the last few weeks. And, as I have noted before, the next rally will likely tell the story for the miner’s complex as a whole. As long as we do not see a direct and strong break below the 21.20-21.87 (slightly modified support region), we may see the GDX retain a more immediate bullish stance, which could suggest the yellow count may take shape into the end of the year.

Over the past several months, especially since we broke below the upper support back in September, I have been noting this market has now entered a region of uncertainty. And, I am still of the opinion that we will need to see how the next rally takes shape for us to have a better understanding of which pattern we will need to follow into the end of the year. But, what these patterns have in common is that it still does not look like this market will be ripe for a major rally again until early 2018. And, the probabilities are beginning to increase that the GDX may not see as deep a drop as I had initially expected, and the next few weeks may provide evidence that can make this potential much more likely than not. Stay tuned.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD & Silver (YI).

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2017 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in