Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Miners’ Status Updated

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Jan 13, 2018 - 02:49 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

After a positive year-end with the expected precious metals rally we noted on Dec. 31, in NFTRH 480:

“With HUI dwelling just under the 195 resistance parameter, a pullback can come at any time. But there are enough other factors still in line to expect a resumed rally after any grind at resistance comes into play.”

and then on Jan. 7, in NFTRH 481:

“What HUI actually did was immediately push up into the 195-200 resistance zone, become overbought and hang around there all week in consolidation. Here is the noisy daily chart once again. Let’s focus on how the most recent RSI oversold condition in December did indeed spring a tradable rally. As chartists saw the October/November shelf of support break down and then the July lows breached the call was ‘BEARISH!’ far and wide. Shorts were taken on the say so of people who know how to look laterally and see one thing lower than the other thing.


Yes, that is a swipe at charting in a vacuum. There were other things in play like sentiment, seasonals and a rapidly improving Commitments of Traders. The other thing we had going for us was a backlog of experience. Simply as a human (as opposed to a chart reader) I’d seen trap door washout whipsaws in this sector all too often. In 1st half December, the bottom was in.

While my gut says there is more rally to come, we are at the ‘bounce’ target of 195-200 and traders who do not care about scouting new bull markets or the like, should have taken profits in that zone. I simply took a few profits, but hold positions still. Huey could test the SMA 200 (black) and fill the gap (blue shaded oval above) and possibly test the green dashed support line before another leg up if another leg up is coming.”

We have been on this rally since chartists far and wide sounded the alarm on the false breakdown and whipsaw that cleaned out the sector in mid-December. See December 15’s Amid Bad Fundamentals Gold Sector Rally May Have Begun.

The plan had been for a pullback to shake the tree and that is exactly what we got, to the noted green dashed support line. While suggesting pure traders take profits at the initial target (195-200) I had done only very minor profit taking before the pullback and as noted in the Trade Log, was buying during and just after the hit of the dashed support line.

Of course, HUI is just a rough guide. The individual stocks I’ve bought and those reviewed in NFTRH have presented their own opportunities in their own ways. Anyway, HUI makes a good – if blunt – guide for the sector. Here is the above daily chart updated. Today confirms the view that the sector would have another leg up in January.

Let’s look at the longer-term ‘perspective’ views that we have kept at the forefront in NFTRH.

The monthly chart has for 1.5 years now been instructing that the chop and grind after the summer of 2016 is a consolidation to the impulsive leg up in the first half of that year. Everybody got aboard back then and it happened with too much force and momentum… and it happened amid badly deteriorating fundamentals! This flag or right side inverted shoulder had a job to do and that was to kill everybody’s spirits. But through the endless drudgery we have noted all along the way in NFTRH that it appears to be a bullish consolidation.

Another prospective big picture is of the HUI/Gold ratio. We have been watching this pattern form since the initial rally blew out in mid-2016 as well. Can you imagine the bludgeoning over eager and/or committed gold bugs have taken, and the frustration of overly skittish ones who got flushed in December? Meanwhile, nominal HUI and its ratio to gold simply lumber on. Markets move slower than our hyper kinetic brains and they don’t care what we think we know on any given daily or weekly basis (aided by the media’s hysterical inputs, no less).

Ah, but all of the above are just charts. The whole reason we did not get shaken out of the rally is because there are other short-term factors involved. Those were seasonal, sentiment and CoT related. As for the most important aspect, the macro fundamentals, a quick look at some gold ratio charts in my list tells me that things are improving there. But due to the big macro party the improvement is not yet substantial. We’ll update the sector view in NFTRH 482 along with quality miners and explorers.

For now, the precious metals are rising with the ‘inflation trade’. When the hysterics fade and inflation traders are one day sent to walk the plank then it will be time for the real distinct bull market in the PMs, probably after a flush of some degree with said inflation trade.* There is a rhythm in play and the majority will not dance to it.

Meanwhile, Garth Gary parties on with the rest of ’em.

* It is tradition in the gold sector; the periodic running of the inflationist gold bugs.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 40-55 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter ;@BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits, RSS or sign up to receive posts directly by email (right sidebar).

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2018 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in