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Gold Price on the Move

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Jan 23, 2018 - 11:21 AM GMT

By: The_Gold_Report

Commodities

Since bottoming on December 11, 2017, at $1,242, gold has tacked on nearly $100 to its price. Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss what they see going on.

Clearly, one reason for the move in gold is the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The black line tracks the U.S. dollar index over the past two months while the gold line tracks the gold price. The dollar hit its recent high exactly when gold reached its low and the two have diverged since then.


The weakness in the dollar appears to reflect a longer-term trend going back to the mid-1980s as the chart below indicates. The downtrend was broken in 2015 but this now looks like a temporary departure from a gradual deterioration in its value against other currencies.

The other significant development in the past two months is that gold is beginning to trend in the same direction as long-term interest rates. The rates have begun rising, probably because of growing concerns about the return of inflation. The chart below tracks the yield on the U.S. 10 year Treasury note while the gold line represents the gold price. As you can see, they are moving together in lock step.

The chart below is the Pring index of inflation expectations (the black line), also over the last two months. The gold line is the gold price. Once again, they track each other closely since the bottom in gold.

What does all this mean? It looks to us as if the gold price has turned upward based on U.S. dollar weakness driven by rising inflation expectations. The key is increasing long-term interest rates which now appear to favor gold after several years of the exact opposite relationship. When these key relationships change, it's time to pay attention.

This article is the collaboration of Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, and reflects the thinking that has helped make them successful gold investors. Rudi is the current Chairman and CEO of Seabridge and Jim is one of its largest shareholders. Disclaimer: The authors are not registered or accredited as investment advisors. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable but is not necessarily complete and accuracy is not guaranteed. Any securities mentioned on this site are not to be construed as investment or trading recommendations specifically for you. You must consult your own advisor for investment or trading advice. This article is for informational purposes only.

Disclosures:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The authors are wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the content preparation. The authors were not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the authors to publish or syndicate this article.
2) Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony: we, or members of our immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Seabridge Gold. We personally are, or members of our immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: Seabridge Gold.
3) Seabridge Gold is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article.

Charts provided by the authors.


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