S&P 500 Just 2% Below Record High, But There's More Stock Market Uncertainty

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were basically unchanged on Wednesday, as investors took short-term profits off the table following the recent rally. Is this a topping pattern before downward reversal, or just a quick flat correction before another leg up? Will quarterly earnings releases drive the market higher?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and 0.3% on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment remained pretty bullish following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index reached the highest since the early February, as it slightly extended its short-term uptrend yesterday. It currently trades just 2.0% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% and the technology Nasdaq Composite was unchanged on Wednesday.

The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,790-2,800, marked by the previous resistance level. The next level of support is at 2,780-2,785, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at 2,765-2,770, marked by last week's Wednesday's local low along with last week's Monday's daily gap up of 2,764.41-2,768.51. On the other hand, a potential resistance level is at 2,835-2,850, marked by January the 30th daily gap down of 2,837.75-2,851.48.

The broad stock market extended its short-term uptrend yesterday, as the S&P 500 index reached new local high above the level of 2,815. It is getting closer to the January topping pattern of around 2,840-2,870. Will it continue towards new record highs? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios - bearish that will lead us below the February low following trend line breakdown, and the bullish one in a form of medium-term double top pattern or a breakout towards 3,000 mark. The latter one is getting more and more real. The S&P 500 index seems to be "climbing a wall of worries" here:

Slightly Above 2,800

The index futures trade between -0.2% and -0.3% vs. their yesterday's closing price, so expectations before the opening of today's trading session are negative. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will wait for the economic data announcements today: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m., Leading Indicators at 10:00 a.m. Investors will also wait for quarterly earnings release from Microsoft, among others. The S&P 500 index will probably extend its short-term fluctuations along the level of 2,800 today. There have been no confirmed negative signals. For now, it looks like a relatively flat correction within an uptrend.

The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday downtrend following yesterday's intraday downward reversal. The market bounced off resistance level of around 2,815-2,820. On the other hand, the support level remains at 2,800-2,805. The next level of support is at 2,790, marked by the recent local low. The futures contract continues to trade slightly above 2,800 mark, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Nasdaq Also Lower

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it retraces its yesterday's intraday advance. Is this a new short-term downtrend or just consolidation? The market is still around 1% below Tuesday's record high of 7,437. The nearest important level of support is at 7,350-7.380. The next support level is at around 7,300, among others. The Nasdaq futures contract backs off from the new record high, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Amazon at another New Record High, Apple Lags

Let's take a look at Apple, Inc. stock (AAPL) daily chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). The stock slightly extended its advance last week, but it still trades at the resistance level of around $190-195. On the other hand, support level remains at around $185, marked by the previous level of resistance:

Now let's take a look at Amazon.com, Inc. stock (AMZN) daily chart. It reached another new record high yesterday at the price of $1,858.88. The bull market seems unstoppable here, but there are still negative medium-term technical divergences. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far:

Blue-Chip Stocks Continue Higher

The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its short-term uptrend yesterday, following the recent breakout above the level of 25,000. The market gets closer to the early June topping pattern. And we may see some uncertainty there:

The S&P 500 index extended its short-term uptrend yesterday. So the broad stock market continues retracing its January's-February's sell-off. But will it reach new record highs? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see some short-term consolidation along the level of 2,800.

Concluding, the broad stock market will likely open slightly lower today. The S&P 500 index may fluctuate along the level of 2,800 for a while. Investors will wait for the economic data announcements along with quarterly earnings releases.

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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts
SunshineProfits.com

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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Disclaimer

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