The recent gyrations between Jun – Aug 2018 appear to count well enough as a running triangle. For those readers that have some knowledge of Elliott Wave, will note that a triangle is a very common pattern for a 4th wave of an impulse wave. I am counting the current decline from April 2018 as a 5th wave of a larger impulse wave that started from the 2016 highs (2016 lows on the Russell 2000).

It’s possible to now count a completed thrust from a 4th wave triangle, although until we see a strong move back above 14.00, then wave 5 of wave [5] may still extend lower. A small 5 wave advance on a 15-30 min time frame would be a good sign to support a low in place.

Many people are fearful of bearish ETFS as they seldom like to trade the markets on the short side; I personally think the bearish ETFS have a role to play in the markets provided that you can time your entries as close as you can to major turns in the markets. This is where Elliott Wave can offer an advantage over other forms of technical analysis, whilst Elliott Wave is not perfect; I still feel it’s an edge in the current environment.

In Bear markets, the bearish ETFS will play a major role. If the current move on the Russell 2000 is the culmination to the advance from the 2016 lows, then as the Russell 2000 declines, TWM will rally. So even if you did not want to directly sell short the Russell 2000, buying some TWM could also be used as a hedging position against any bullish positions you may have.

Until we see a strong move above 14.00 on TWM, then traders need to respect the current strength on the Russell 2000, but if the current idea on TWM is correct, then I am expecting a strong move lower on the Russell 2000 soon, so by default a rally on TWM.

Until next time,
Have a profitable week ahead.

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