The S&P 500 made a monthly closing all-time high in August. This is uncommon, because the U.S. stock market is usually more volatile from May – September.

Historically, this has been a short term bearish sign for the U.S. stock market in September. Here’s what the S&P did in September when it closed at a monthly all-time high in August.

As you can see, the S&P tends to make a short term pullback in September. However, this short term weakness usually doesn’t extend beyond September. Forward returns after September are no different than random.

Conclusion

This study is a short term bearish factor for the U.S. stock market in September. If you are not long stocks right now and are thinking about chasing the rally, you might want to wait a little before joining the long side.

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By Troy Bombardia

BullMarkets.co

I’m Troy Bombardia, the author behind BullMarkets.co. I used to run a hedge fund, but closed it due to a major health scare. I am now enjoying life and simply investing/trading my own account. I focus on long term performance and ignore short term performance.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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