UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis directly continues on from (UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

Instead my analysis so far (first made available to patrons) continues to paint a picture for UK house prices to remain on an overall upward trend trajectory.

• Current State and Momentum Analysis
• UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Trend Forecast
• UK Ageing Population Demographics and House Prices Trend Forecast

UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture

Whilst the focus of this analysis so far has been the ratio of workers to retirees, however Britain also carries the burden of its benefits culture which has about 8.6 million people of working age who are sat idle, this is set against the official unemployment number of 1.4 million which results in an unrecorded economically inactive gap of 7.2 million which illustrates the true extent of the failure of the last Labour government to manage the potential of the work force during the boom years as illustrated by the fact that 80% of the 2.1 million jobs created under Labour went to foreign workers and therefore did nothing to address the true level of UK unemployment that contained a hidden ticking social security financing time bomb that has exploded as an extra £40 billion annual budget deficit that first the Coalition government and then the Conservative government has been focused on grappling with.

Off course not all of those that are economically inactive can work such as through disablement or long-term illness, nevertheless the real level of unemployment if including those that can work but choose not to work is nearer to 5.5 million than the official level of 1.4 million.

Therefore the Conservative government has been correct in recognising this huge and unsustainable burden on the state by attempting to implement measures such as Universal Credit to force those of working age to actively seek employment rather than remain a burden on the state for their entire working lives and then again during retirement, which would have the dual effect of turning many millions of today's benefit claimers into tomorrows tax payers.

The next article in this series concldues in the impact of Demographics on house prices.

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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