Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Failed Attempt

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 May 07, 2019 - 08:02 AM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend Final long-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend –  The trend which started at 2346 could be close to making a final high (as a B-wave?) before another significant correction begins.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends 


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com

  Failed Attempt

Market Overview

The last newsletter focused on the warning issued by Erik Hadik (Insiide Track)  that market cycles were coming together to reproduce another version of the September-December sudden and sharp market correction which was brutal but short-lived.  Since then, the market (in general) has recovered the lost ground completely, and some of the major indexes have even made new all-time highs, SPX being one of them.  No doubt, Erik sees something on the near-term horizon that could have a negative effect on stocks.  Whether or not it will come to pass is another question!  But could last week’s quick 55-point drop presage what comes next – as early as in the next couple of weeks?  The selling spell was due to a negative reaction to the FOMC report but was quickly offset by a positive jobs report.

Some top Elliott Wave Theory analysts are also cautious, seeing the near-completion of a structure which should be followed by a sharp correction, perhaps even the end of a B-wave from 2346 in the low 3000’s (SPX), followed by a devastating C-wave.  In that sense, last week’s correction may have been the set-up required for the final phase of the structure to get underway. 

With top-notch analysts of two different analytic media forecasting the same near-term outcome for the stock market, it is best not to react to this warning with a big yawn! 

Chart Analysis (The charts that are shown below are courtesy of QCharts)

SPX daily chart

Let’s start with channel analysis. Prices have travelled within an intermediate-term channel since the December low.  Within this larger channel, there is a smaller channel which is angling toward the larger channel’s lower trendline.  Last week, for the first time in over a month the center line of that smaller channel was violated, but the next day the index bounced back above it and, as of Friday’s close, there was still no sign that the uptrend was is in jeopardy

Before it can reverse, the index will first need to close outside of the smaller channel, and then outside of the larger channel.  This is not likely until higher prices are seen, and there is plenty of time for that to occur since the cycles are not expected to peak until the middle of the month.  In last week’s letter,  I mentioned that, on a purely technical basis, I did not see any sign of an imminent reversal, and I can repeat this assertion this week.   The daily oscillators did weaken somewhat but, with Friday’s price recovery, a mid-week dip was quickly neutralized.

SPX hourly chart

The hourly chart gives us a detailed view of the small channel, but before we get to it, I want to point out something else.  To simplify the analysis, price channels can usually be divided into two or three fairly equal sections.  On this chart we have an example of both.  Parallels to the main channel lines have been drawn from valid anchor points (this is the basis for the Andrew’s Pitchfork methodology).  The large channel has been separated into three sections and the smaller one into two.  These parallels act as boundaries to price movement within the channel.  In this case, we can see that prices respected the upper dashed parallel in early April, and last Thursday, the lower dashed parallel contained the short-term decline.  This is even more visible in the case of the smaller channel where prices remained contained in its upper half for about six weeks.  Normally, prices will gradually progress from the upper channel division to the lower until they move outside of the channel completely and a reversal takes place.  This is what we must wait for to signal a reversal.
As brief as it was, the penetration by the index into the lower portion of the small channel is an early sign of weakness.  If prices fail to break out of the red consolidation channel right away and they pull back one more time below the dashed middle line, it will be a sign of increasing  weakness.  This pull-back may be facilitated by the fact that two minor cycles are expected to make their lows next week.  By the end of the week, if we are back in an uptrend, we can now monitor how much more progress we make on the upside, and how long it takes for the bears to retake control. 

Once again, we were warned of last week’s correction by negative divergence in the oscillators when the index made its high, but there was no such warning at the subsequent low.    

QQQ, SPX, DJIA, IWM (weekly)

I’m going to stick to the weekly charts of the four indexes that were shown last week.  The same ranking prevails at the weekly level, but IWM outperformed the others at the daily level which is an indication that new highs can probably be expected. 

UUP (Dollar ETF) daily

UUP is in a well-established uptrend channel, but may be on its way to retest the recent low.  To simplify the analysis, let’s see to see if it falls below the important green 30-dma and what that portends.

GDX (Gold miners ETF) daily

GDX broke another intermediate trend line last week and started to trade below its 200-dma.  It needs to get back above both right away to prevent further technical damage.  Positive divergence in the oscillator is promising.

ACB (Aurora Cannabis) daily7

ACB continues to trade in a narrow range, seemingly waiting for some news catalyst to move it off the dimeThere are good reasons to expect a positive development to occur.

BNO (U.S. Brent oil fund) daily

BNO appears to have found a short-term top and has started to correct.  There is good support at the junction of 50-dma and 200-dma (about 19.50).

Summary

Keeping in mind the credible warnings that an important top will be reached around the middle of the month, we continue to monitor the technical health of the SPX.  Last week, an attempt to sell off was quickly neutralized and the uptrend from 2346 remains in good health with only minor negatives appearing.

Andre

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in