YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov is set to update their MRP methodology based election polling seats forecast at 10pm today. Their existing forecast as of 27th November is for Boris Johnson to win a majority of 68 on 359 seats, whilst Labour drops from 242 to 211. As apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what Yougov and the mainstream press keep iterating and thus the obsession with their MRP forecast for 2019.

A quick search reveals - "As the dust of the general election settles, many commentators are still stating they didn’t see it coming. But we did." https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/14/how-we-correctly-called-hung-parliament , Yougov.

However this is what Yougov's website looked like going into voting day.

"Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority"

So take Yougov's MRP forecast with a pinch of salt especially since it is currently showing a significant deviation against my house prices momentum based forecast. Nevertheless the mainstream media have an unnatural obsession with Yougov MRP all on the basis that 'they called the 2017 election correctly' and thus likely to be the focus of attention for the whole of Wednesday 11th December.

I have taken a look at Yougov's MRP data and charts, specifically their forecasting the number of Tory seats. Then applied my 35 years+ trend analysis experience which resolves to expect Yougov to REDUCE the number of seats that they are forecasting for Tories to win down from 359 to to 338. And it is even possible that they could reduce the number still further, perhaps all the way towards hung parliament territory.

After all I consider my analysis and forecast to be the most accurate, thus for Yougov to have any chance of getting the election right then I would expect them to converge to my forecast that on the core house prices analysis basis is 322, fine tuned to xxx in 5 further pieces of extensive analysis that have first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Given that it is highly probable that Yougov psephologists are unaware of my forecast then if their new MRP forecast delivers a contrary outcome will thus amount to a hedging exercise so that no matter what the outcome is, they can claim victory of sorts, much as appears to have happened in 2017. So I doubt very much their updated forecast will by anywhere near the their existing forecast of 359 Tory seats which given my own expectations of for a Tory seats result in the 320's thus implies a far lower seats number. Anyway we will soon find out in about 9 hours time.

UK General Election Forecast

Meanwhile what has actually proven consistently accurate, UK house prices momentum analysis, the proven single most accurate predictor of UK general elections since 2010. So at the core of my UK general election forecast analysis is UK house prices momentum that concludes in a forecast of 322 Tory seats that was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019.

The rest of my analysis (first made available to Patrons) is aimed at fine tuning the core forecast towards the most probable outcome:

1. UK House Prices 322 (UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast)
2. Manifestos Bribes 311 (Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast)
3. Economy 324 (What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019)
4. Marginal Seats (patrons) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019)
5. Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019)
6. Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion

With my final analysis set to be completed today (10th December) "Opinion Polls and Betting Markets, UK General Election Forecast Conclusion"

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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