Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast
ElectionOracle / General Election 2019 Dec 11, 2019 - 12:36 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my final analysis of a 6 part series that aims to apply lessons learned from the 2017 general election towards a forecast that at it's core is based on my UK house prices momentum analysis that was first made available to Patrons on the 24th of November 2019.
Tory Seats projection analysis to date :
- UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
- Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
- Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
- Marginal Seats 326 - UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
- Social Mood (patrons) - Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
- Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
Analysis to date averages to 3xx Tory seats which shows little deviation against my core house prices based forecast of 322 tory seats.
THE OPINION POLLS!
Which I consider to be the least accurate predictor of UK elections, hence why I have left them till last given the fact that they tend to gyrate all over the place during the course of a campaign. So the polls on the day before the vote should make them slightly less useless. Though the pollsters are masters at referring to their huge margins of error such as 6% which effectively means regardless of outcome they can claim to be right, even when they are very badly wrong! As they were for 2017, 2015 and 2010! Never mind for the EU referendum, Scottish Independence Referendum, and of course Trump! ALL WRONG!
But still the goldfish memory mainstream media exclusively focuses on opinions polls during each and every election campaign. BUT that is good for us because from time to time it can throw up huge betting market anomalies to profit from because the bookies always tend to side with what the pollsters are saying, which as why Trump and the EU referendum and the 2015 general election were such big winners. Whilst 2017 proved a tough one to get right though it has provided lessons to learn for next time i.e. for this election.
So last but least are OPINION POLLS! What are they saying in terms of the probable outcome of the general election, for I can't imagine the polls changing much over the next 24 hours or so until the polls open.
The BBC Poll tracker resolves to 43% for the Tories, 33% for Labour and 13% for the Liberal Democrats. A 10% spread between the Tories and Labour which is basically were we stood when I first posted my house prices based forecast several weeks ago.
The only things that's changed is that the Tories have hoovered up Brexit Party votes whilst Labour has hoovered up Lib Dem support. Hence little net difference. At the time this typically resolved to a Tories seats forecast range of 342 to 376 seats.
However, where polling is concerned then the media obsession has been with Yougov and their MRP based seats forecast. Which following publication of their 27th November MRP forecast for 359 Tory seats, saw the pollsters, pundits and bookies all converging to a range of between 352 to 368 Tory seats which is where the pollsters have sat until last night.
YouGov updated their MRP methodology based election seats forecast at 10pm on Tuesday 10th December. Their existing forecast as of 27th November was for Boris Johnson to win a majority of 68 on 359 seats, whilst Labour dropping from 242 to 211. As apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election? We'll that's what Yougov and the mainstream press keep iterating and thus the obsession with their MRP forecast for the whole of the 2019 campaign, generating much free publicity for the pollster.
A quick search reveals - "As the dust of the general election settles, many commentators are still stating they didn’t see it coming. But we did." https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/14/how-we-correctly-called-hung-parliament , Yougov.
However this is what Yougov's website looked like going into voting day 2017.
"Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority"
And here is Yougov's new seats forecast side by side with their 27th November call.
So Yougov has CUT their Tory seats forecast by 20 dropping from 359 to 339. Which I actually forecast they would do some 9 hours BEFORE they posted their update!
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article66261.html
Accompanied by facebook posts and tweets.
So take Yougov's MRP forecast with a giant pinch of salt especially since it is still showing a significant deviation against my house prices momentum based forecast. Nevertheless the mainstream media have an unnatural obsession with Yougov MRP all on the basis that 'they called the 2017 election' and thus likely to be the focus of attention for the whole of today and tomorrow. Expect to see Yougov's Curtice's face plastered all over the news channels. The guy who called it for REMAIN AFTER the polls closed on 23rd June 2016!
And since this is the focus of the mainstream media attention then there is little point in my wasting time looking at the various pollster sites out there but to just go with Yougov's forecasts for what the opinion pollsters expect as there isn't going to be much deviation from it if what followed the 27th November Yougov MRP poll is any indications of.
Final Tory Seats Analysis Forecast Summary
- UK House Prices 322
- Manifestos Bribes 311
- Economy 324
- Marginal Seats 326
- Social Mood (Patrons)
- Opinion Polls 339
The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019
So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
UK General Election Forecast
- UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
- Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
- Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
- Marginal Seats (326) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
- Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
- Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
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Your Analyst
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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