UK General Election 2019 BBC Exit Poll Forecast Accuracy Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 34 million voters out of a total of approx 49 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place during the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 5 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.

Exit Polls Accuracy:

2017 General Election exit poll vs actual outcome:

• Conservative 314 / 318 (-4)
• Labour 266 / 262 (+4)
• Lib Dems 14 / 12 (+2)
• SNP 34 / 35 (-1)

2016 EU Referendum exit poll vs actual outcome:

• REMAIN 52% / 48%
• LEAVE 48% / 52%

2015 General Election exit poll vs actual outcome:

• Conservative 316 / 331 (-15)
• Labour 239 / 232 (+7)
• Lib Dems 10 / 8 (+2)
• Others 85 / 79 (+6)

2010 General Election exit poll vs actual outcome:

• Conservative 307 / 307 (0)
• Labour 255 / 258 (-3)
• Lib Dems 59 / 57 (-2)
• Others 29 / 28 (+1)

2005 General Election exit poll vs actual outcome:

• Conservative 209 / 198 (+11)
• Labour 356 / 356 (0)
• Lib Dems 53 / 62 (-9)
• Others 28 / 30 (-2)

2001 General Election exit poll vs actual outcome:

• Conservative 177 / 166 (+11)
• Labour 408 / 413 (-5)
• Lib Dems 44 / 52 (-8)
• Others 30 / 28 (+2)

The BBC and other broadcaster pollster based exit polls proved very accurate for the 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2017 general elections in determining the outcome in terms of which major party would form the next government, which also proved far more accurate than the opinion pollster forecasts such as that of the US election forecasting guru Nate Silver who got the 2015 UK general election badly wrong as I covered at then time - Nate Silver UK General Election Forecast 2015 as Wrong as 2010?. Or virtually everyone for 2017.

However the BBC exit poll for 2015 was very badly wrong as it forecast a hung parliament when the result was for a Conservative outright election victory. And even worse was to come for the EU Referendum, though there it was not really an exit poll rather YouGov's last throw of the dice that got the result very badly wrong with all hell breaking loose on the financial markets shortly after midnight as the actual results were pointing in the exact opposite direction.

So in conclusion expect tonight's BBC exit poll to be out by about 6 seats for the Tories, i.e. if the BBC Exit poll is 330 then the actual result would be closer to 324 to 326. Which in terms of my forecast of 326 in this example the BBC would be over estimating the actual outcome.

UK General Election Seats Forecast

Here's a quick summary of my general election seats per party forecasts ahead of the polls opening.

• Conservatives 326
• Labour 241
• SNP 40
• Lib Dems 17

This forecast is based on extensive in-depth analysis that was first made available to Patrons who support my work:

1. UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
2. Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
3. Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
4. Marginal Seats (326) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
5. Social Mood (330) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
6. Opinion Polls (339) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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