Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Investors: Are You in Danger of Emotion-Driven Decisions? You're Not Alone

InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest Dec 19, 2019 - 02:41 PM GMT

By: EWI

InvestorEducation

Or...Your Defense Against FOMO

As the winter holidays draw near, many of us will fall victim to the affliction we call "S.N.O.M.O." -- the Sudden Need of More Objects (to own, play with... and eventually, store in the basement).

Lists and budgets are no match for SNOMO once we take our first steps into a big-box store with its flashing signs and blazing blue lights. Within minutes, a powerful urge takes over and suddenly we're leaping in front of an old lady with a cane for the last cat-massage combing kit despite not knowing a single person who owns a cat, self included.


Our friends at Elliott Wave International assert that the same fear and emotion driving holiday shoppers to make irrational purchases ALSO drives the year-round speculation by investors in uber-hyped "it" markets.

To investors and traders, this phenomenon is known as FOMO -- the Fear of Missing Out. And we can't cure shoppers' SNOMO, for investors the ultimate defense against the sudden need of more is Elliott wave analysis.

The Wall Street bestseller and ultimate resource guide on all things Elliott., Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior writes:

"The Wave Principle exists partly because man refuses to learn from history, because he can always be counted upon to be led to believe that two and two can and do make five.

"He can be led to believe that the laws of nature do not exist (or more commonly, 'do not apply in this case') ... and that the fears which reason supports will evaporate if they are ignored or derided."

Essentially, the Wave Principle acts as a mood-stabilizer to man's innate fears of missing out on the next big thing. It provides a defined forecasting method for looking at markets, including a clear set of rules and guidelines, which govern the extent and direction of trends.

One of the starkest examples of Elliott waves combatting investor emotion comes via the recent history in bitcoin. In late 2017, the cryptocurrency had gone from a "fake," "fringe" novelty to the new darling of Wall Street -- after rocketing in 2017 alone from below $1000 per coin to above $20,000 by December of that year.

Every major company from Apple Store to Zappos to Playboy began accepting Bitcoin as a payment medium. Average citizens were literally mortgaging their homes to buy the "hottest new investment trend" (Dec. 12 Forbes). And mainstream analysts were re-upping their bullish bitcoin forecasts for the year ahead, as these headlines from December 2017 reveal:

  • "Bitcoin could easily reach $40,000 by the end of 2018." (CNBC)
  • "Bitcoin: Mystery Investor Bets a million it hits $50,000." (Forbes)
  • "Bitcoin Will Surge Above $100,000 in 2018" (CNBC)

As one Wall Street bitcoin strategist summarized in a December 22, 2017 article: "Make no mistake - the long-term bull market is firmly intact." (The Street)

The pressure to get in on Bitcoin before the next thousandth-percent price surge could be felt the world over. Investors collective emotion was at an all-time high, and most speculators espoused the sentiment alluded to in Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior -- namely; that the rules of nature and gravity didn't apply to bitcoin.

By stark contract, Elliott Wave International’s December 2017 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast took an objective stance based on bitcoin’s completed bullish Elliott wave pattern and identified the hallmarks of a late-stage bubble, issuing this warning to crypto-crazed investors:

"A rising sea of euphoria, ever-higher price projections and the capitulation of financial sophisticates only reinforce our stance:

"We are more convinced than ever that bitcoin will disappoint its late-coming enthusiasts."

Result: From its December 2017 peak of near $20,0000 Bitcoin plummeted 70%-plus to below $6000 per coin in just two months! (By the end of 2017, bitcoin was trading near $3000, an 80% crash.)

In fact, the first quarter of 2018 was the worst period for cryptocurrencies in history. Here again, Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior offers singular insight into the psychological machinations of this type of market's reversal:

"Panics are sudden emotional mass realizations of reality, as are the initial upswings from the bottoms of those panics. At these points, reason suddenly impresses itself upon the mass psyche, saying, 'Things have gone too far. The current levels are not justified by reality.'

"To the extent that reason is disregarded, then, will be the extent of the extremes of mass emotional swings and their mirror, the market."

For any investor, fomo begets disappointment and regret. Yet, nobody is immune. In October 2017, JP Morgan Chase's CEO called bitcoin a "fraud" and said, "If you're stupid enough to buy it, you'll pay the price." Two months later, amidst the crypto hype and glitz, the bank started prepping its clients for investing in bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

A new bitcoin-like "it" market is born every day. Whether you approach those markets led by emotion, or by a clear Elliott wave discipline, is your choice. All free Club EWI members get instant, no-cost access to the complete Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior the minute they sign up. Join them today and learn to keep your emotions in check with Elliott wave analysis!

Who is Elliott Wave International? EWI is the world's largest independent technical analysis firm. Founded by Robert Prechter in 1979, EWI helps investors and traders to catch market opportunities and avoid potential pitfalls before others even see them coming. Their unique perspective and high-quality analysis have been their calling card for nearly 40 years, featured in financial news outlets such as Fox Business, CNBC, Reuters, MarketWatch and Bloomberg.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in