Chinese Students Spreading Coronavirus Infections Across UK Universities - Pandemic Day 55

Politics / Pandemic Feb 01, 2020 - 03:29 PM GMT

The primary conduit for the spread of the Coronavirus outside of China are Chinese people (mostly students) who traveled out of China during the past few weeks, including several tens of thousands from the Wuhan epicentre of the outbreak. So it should not come as much of a surprise that the first declared infection in the UK is from a Chinese student at York University who has sent authorities scrambling to investigate all contacts that the student had as potential sources for further outbreaks of this deadly coronavirus.

This illustrates the short window of opportunity the UK had to prevent outbreaks in the UK has now gone, after failing to take stringent efforts in the prevention of infected persons from either traveling into the UK or for those arriving at airports to be quarantined for 14 days. Instead It is likely too late and thus the expectations are that over the coming days and weeks for several such outbreaks of the virus which will have their source at Britain's Universities that are host to over 120,000 Chinese students, a population pool from which many dozens are likely infected and have been spreading the virus.

CoronaVirus Outbreak Trend Forecast

My analysis of 28th Jan concluded forecast expectations for the virus to spread exponentially first across China and then across the world to target 1 million infections by the end of February resulting in 35,000 deaths.

Forecast youtube Video : https://youtu.be/c1rXvXMD3jc

Latest youtube video update as of Pandemic Day 53.

The graph illustrates the trend trajectory forecast infections to only really start taking off globally mid February when the number of infections are expected to exceed 100,000 and deaths 2,500. So we are still some 10days away from when the Coronavirus pandemic really starts to take off globally and starts to overwhelm healthcare systems that is the real reason why the number of deaths will greatly start to expand.

Unfortunately, the worlds governments are doing the exact opposite to what's needed to be done which is to prevent travel from infected areas into their uninfected nations, where even at this stage are actively flying home potentially infected nationals with a flight of some 150 British nationals brought back to the UK yesterday. No matter what the authorities state, the British government just as the Chinese government before it will NOT be able to contain infections from such flights as it only takes 1 person to start an epidemic in the UK which has now transpired given the news out of York.

Coronavirus Infection Spread Day 55 - 1st Feb 2020 Update

The forecast for the number of infections and deaths by 1st of Feb 2020 vs actual:

	Infections	Deaths
Forecast for 1st Feb	10210	357
Actual - 1st Feb	11400	259
% Diiff	118%	73%

Were this trend to continue into the end of February 2020 then the number of infected would increase to 1.11 million, whilst the number of deaths would fall to 25,365. So the latest data implies a wider spread but a lower mortality rate.

However, these are still the very early days of the spread of the Coronavirus, especially given that there are large susceptible populations groups with poor healthcare infrastructure such as India that announced it's first infection Friday where outbreaks could soon overwhelm heathcare systems. Also that a vaccine is still a good 4 months away so far too late to have any impact on this pandemic.

Meanwhile this is what China and Asia's infections map currently looks like, a harbinger of what to expect as the virus travels into uninfected populations.

Contrary to all of the measures taken by the Chinese to limit it's spread the virus has now spread to the whole of China which means it cannot be contained and is only a matter of time before it goes global at roughly the same rate of spread.

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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