US Coronavirus Infections About to Go Parabolic - Day 42 Update

Politics / Pandemic Mar 04, 2020 - 02:15 PM GMT

Apparently the CDC has been sending out Coronavirus test kits that don't work! So how many hundreds of infected have been roaming US streets infecting fellow citizens because the CDC is incompetent. it looks like the CDC wants to 'control' media attention on the Coronavirus than actually do their job in preventing outbreaks, much as the WHO have been shown to be little more than media whores rather do anything proactive in preventing outbreaks, an example of which is failure to halt all flight from China! That they should have done in January!.

My US trend forecast is for 13,000 infected by the end of March resulting in about 180 deaths. Though the actual number may turn out to be significantly higher because I see little sign that the US is taking the Coronavirus seriously enough, where many are still shrugging it off as being not that much worse than the flu. Instead it is at least 15 times as deadly as the flu, and depending on quality of healthcare can be 100 times as deadly!

The bottom line is that most western nations are still in the calm before the coronavirus storm stage where outbreaks could spread at nearer to r0 5.0 rather than oft mentioned r0 2.6, at least for the first 4 or 5 days of an outbreak, which means the UK and US having only 50 managed cases each is nothing to get complacent about for there WILL be outbreaks that will be just as bad as in South Korea and Italy, it is only a matter of time that should not be wasted but rather utilised to prepare for, especially given the fact that the likes of Britain's NHS has only spare capacity for 400 critically ill patients that could number 1000 by the end of March alone, let alone be able to cope with what looks increasingly likely for April and May. And worse still most of the beds by then will likely be occupied by infected HEALTH care workers, as they are most at risk of becoming infected. So the general public stands a hope in hells chance of getting treated for Coronavirus once the epidemic gets going by Mid March.

Stock Market Trend Implications

My stock market analysis and trend forecast BASED on my Coronavirus analysis of late January was first made available to Patrons who support my work. That basically WARNED to expect THIS decline on the 9th of February! Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020?

Whilst my latest update of what to expect has first been made available to Patrons who support my work - The Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Begins, When Will it End?

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Recent analysis includes :

Scheduled Analysis Includes:

UK Housing market series
Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
Bitcoin trend forecast
Euro Dollar Futures
EUR/RUB
US House Prices trend forecast update

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.