Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Current State - 22nd Apr 21
Gold Rebounds Amid Positive Economic Reports - 22nd Apr 21
China's record first quarter fuels strong expansion in 2021 - 22nd Apr 21
Gold Price Next Key Level - 22nd Apr 21
Here's What to Look For When Hiring a Real Estate Agent - 22nd Apr 21
Ethereum EIP 1559 and Raven Coin - 21st Apr 21
Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving - 21st Apr 21
World Economies Need to Find a Lot More COPPER! - 21st Apr 21
DogeCoin CRASH! Time to Start Mining BOODGIE Coin! Crypto Mania 2021 - 21st Apr 21
Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks - 21st Apr 21
Precious Metals and Miners Start of New Longer-Term Bullish Trend - P2 - 21st Apr 21
Looking For A Mortgage Broker? Here Is How To Hire One - 21st Apr 21
Amazon AMZN Stock PRIMEDAY SALE! Trend Analysis - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Phase Two Projection - 20th Apr 21
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? - 20th Apr 21
Inflation: First the Gain, Then the Pain… - 20th Apr 21
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model - 19th Apr 21
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War - 19th Apr 21
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? - 19th Apr 21
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story - 19th Apr 21
YuanPay Team Discuss The Process Of Crypto Diversification - 19th Apr 21
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Containing the Coronavirus: Chinese lessons

Politics / Pandemic Mar 16, 2020 - 04:26 PM GMT

By: Dan_Steinbock

Politics Despite containment in China, international response against the coronavirus has been lagging. So, what can be learned from the Chinese experience?

As the novel coronavirus is globalizing, the very nature of the outbreak – which the World Health Organization (WHO) has now declared a global pandemic – is changing.     

As the early imported cases are now being augmented with local transmissions, the novel coronavirus outbreak has moved into a new, more serious phase. That’s why March will be the critical month worldwide.


International virus escalation

During the first week of February, I projected the turnaround in the outbreak; that is, deceleration of cases in China and acceleration of cases outside China. At the time, the number of the infected in the Chinese mainland was still below 30,000 and outside China less than 300.

Some observers, even “market experts,” thought that was the end of the story, whereas those with greater foresight understood it was just the tip of the iceberg.

Although relative infection rates were already increasing internationally, too many international observers saw the virus as “China’s problem.” In the coming months, that flawed misperception will prove very costly in terms of human lives and economic damage.

As confirmed cases in China now exceed 80,000, those outside China are climbing closer to that level. In China, the turnaround came about 1 month after the first recorded cases. Outside China, the early cases were first reported after mid-January, but there has been no turnaround. Instead, international escalation is rapidly intensifying (Figure).

Figure          Daily new cases in and outside China



Source: WHO, China National Health Commission, Difference Group

Chinese containment               

Facing a previously unknown virus, China rolled out what the WHO later called “perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history.” Here’s how it worked.

  1. Aggressive containment in three phases

The strategy that underpinned the Chinese containment effort started as a national approach, which pushed hard for universal temperature monitoring, masking, and hand washing. When China initiated the quarantine of tens of millions, it was a drastic measure amid a drastic crisis. But at the time, all alternatives were worse.

As the outbreak evolved, deepened and spread, more knowledge was gained. That’s when China took a science and risk-based approach to tailor the implementation.

Finally, specific containment measures were adjusted to the provincial, county and even community context, the capacity of the setting, and the nature of novel coronavirus transmission there. 

  1. Leadership and solidarity

It was the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action, which was devised and implemented by the Chinese leaders, that made possible broad containment and its enforcement - but not just at the national level.

Critically, remarkable solidarity was achieved in provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities. Effective at national, provincial and municipal levels, it was a lesson about the power of collective solidarity and multi-level governance cooperation, as opposed to disunity and friction.

What impressed many international observers who visited China at the time was the simple fact that, despite ongoing outbreaks in their own areas, Chinese governors and mayors continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital personal protection equipment supplies into Wuhan, the epicenter of the crisis, and its surrounding province Hubei. In the battle against the coronavirus, we are only as strong as our weakest links.

3.    Resolute determination

It was this bold approach to contain the rapid spread of the novel respiratory pathogen that changed the course of the rapidly escalating epidemic. What seemed to be a crushing plague-like disaster that would first spread through Hubei across China, then through Asia and the rest of the world was subdued in weeks.

As WHO’s executives like to point out, when their mission first arrived in China, there were almost 2,500 newly confirmed cases daily. Two weeks later, when they left, the number of new cases had shrunk to barely 400 – to less than a fifth.

Here’s why it’s so impressive: Outside China, the number of daily new cases was also about 2,500 by March 3. Today, that figure is not falling but soaring – and almost four times higher.

So, that’s the Chinese approach in a nutshell: Try to contain the crisis aggressively in phases. Foster leadership, bolster solidarity. Act decisively and with determination.

It sounds easy but it’s not. And no approach is devoid of mistakes; but what really matters is how quickly one can learn from those mistakes.

People before GDP

When Italy on March 9 imposed a national quarantine over some 60 million people, it has the potential to delay the spread and reduce the number of the infected in Italy and Europe, and internationally. If that costly decision had not been made, the repercussions would have been disastrous to Italy, Europe and the world.

It was also a lesson from China. When Beijing imposed the cordon sanitaire around Wuhan and neighboring municipalities on January 23, 2020, it was criticized in much of the West as a reflection of “Beijing’s autocratic measures” that would not help but could make the crisis a lot worse.  

In reality, the quarantine and all the accompanying measures dramatically delayed and reduced further exportation of the coronavirus to elsewhere in the country, regional proximity and worldwide. That’s why the Chinese blueprint is now adapted elsewhere, when alternatives are few and rare.

Every country can learn from the Chinese experience, but all must also adjust those lessons to local conditions. Not every country is in a comparable situation, but no country can any longer avert a virus impact.

In China, economic development is seen as critical to the country’s future. But ultimately, Chinese leaders are not accountable to cold GDP figures. People come first.

It is thanks to that mindset that China is now busy getting back to business, working to bolster the economy with accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, while reopening schools and trying to contain the remaining chains of transmission. As the populous country is moving from containment to the mitigation stage, the real challenge will be to contain new imported cases in the borders, while quickly extinguishing any potential new virus cluster at home.  

There are no miracle cures against dangerous viruses. But some lessons are better than others. This is neither the first nor the last global pandemic. We can’t afford to learn too slowly.

Dr. Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net/  

© 2020 Copyright Dan Steinbock - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dan Steinbock Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules