Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Current State - 22nd Apr 21
Gold Rebounds Amid Positive Economic Reports - 22nd Apr 21
China's record first quarter fuels strong expansion in 2021 - 22nd Apr 21
Gold Price Next Key Level - 22nd Apr 21
Here's What to Look For When Hiring a Real Estate Agent - 22nd Apr 21
Ethereum EIP 1559 and Raven Coin - 21st Apr 21
Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving - 21st Apr 21
World Economies Need to Find a Lot More COPPER! - 21st Apr 21
DogeCoin CRASH! Time to Start Mining BOODGIE Coin! Crypto Mania 2021 - 21st Apr 21
Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks - 21st Apr 21
Precious Metals and Miners Start of New Longer-Term Bullish Trend - P2 - 21st Apr 21
Looking For A Mortgage Broker? Here Is How To Hire One - 21st Apr 21
Amazon AMZN Stock PRIMEDAY SALE! Trend Analysis - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Phase Two Projection - 20th Apr 21
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? - 20th Apr 21
Inflation: First the Gain, Then the Pain… - 20th Apr 21
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model - 19th Apr 21
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War - 19th Apr 21
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? - 19th Apr 21
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story - 19th Apr 21
YuanPay Team Discuss The Process Of Crypto Diversification - 19th Apr 21
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy Government PANICs! Sterling Collapses!

Politics / Pandemic Mar 19, 2020 - 07:41 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Finally Britain's schools are going to close on Friday the 20th of March, a good 2 weeks later than they should have and 1 week later than I forecast they would do over a month ago! As the government had been following the mad scientist doctrine of wanting to spread the virus via those most able to withstand and survive infection i.e. children who thankfully are being spared by the coronavirus. Who were expected to go on to infect their parents and thus eventually approximately 60% of the UK population would reach herd immunity and bring the outbreak to an end.

A protocol that I for several weeks have been warning was a recipe for disaster that would result in anywhere from 400,000 deaths to 1.4 million UK deaths, far beyond anything any other nation has experienced as illustrated by my following video -


UK Government Implements Coronavirus Herd Immunity Protocol, Plans for 1.4 Million Covid-19 Deaths

The government had been following this protocol because it's the cheapest and fastest way out of the Coronavirus crisis as saving lives costs time and money!

However, following much outcry from a myriad of medical institutions who painted a stark picture for Britain if it continued along the 'Herd Immunity' path that the number of deaths would number in the hundreds of thousands. Thus prompting a public about turn as an out of his depth Boris Johnson swung in the other direction, promising to test upwards of 25,000 people per day as being the only effective means of managing the outbreak by identifying those infected and then quarantining them, though the current rate of testing is barely above 5,000 per day..

The UK currently has capacity for 5000 ICU beds of which 80% are already populated, the objective is about half of these will be vacated by the 15th April with a planned 5000 more coming on stream to total 10,000, and then a further 30,000 high dependency beds to be made available, thus the UK should be in a position to cope with about 30,000 seriously ill and approximately 8,000 critically ill patients by late April.

Unfortunately government incompetence and negligence in NOT having taken the pandemic seriously enough by wasting the whole of February, and only really starting to act in the wake of financial panic and street panic as shoppers fearing a shutdown France and Italy style panic shopped, clearing supermarkets of all of their produce literally leaving nothing on the shelves!

That prompted stores to implement policies of first 1 to 3 items per customer of certain high demand products, that today has changed to no more than 2 of ANY item per customer so as to bring a halt to he panic buying that began with the world wide obsession for toilet paper as if it seemed to offered some magical protection against Covid-19.

Whilst the Bank of England attempted to stem economic collapse by cutting UK interest rates to an all time low of just 0.1%! With the bigger story being monetizing of £250 billion of government debt that hastened the collapse of the sterling which had been falling since last weeks rate cut to 0.25% and in the wake of government promises to spend as much as it would take to support the economy during the Coronavirus collapse.

As the government promised to offer imminent grants and loans to prevent companies from going bust and laying off workers as the people of Britain were urged to adopt social distancing so as to slow down the rate of infections that are literally going parabolic as I have been warning of for several weeks.

Coronavirus Pandemic Going Parabolic, US and UK COVID19 Infections Forecasts

UK Coronavirus Trend Forecast Update

The total number of infections continues to exceed my trend forecast on a parabolic curve, exceeding my forecast by 350%. My original forecast as of 14th Feb 2020 was for the number of infections to target a parabolic trend from 9 at the time to 5000 by the end of March 2020. The actual trend trajectory now suggests that the UK is heading for more than 17,000 officially recorded infected numbers by the end of March!

Whilst the number of deaths at 144 exceeds my forecast by over 800%, which puts Britain on a worse trajectory to where Italy was at this stage barely 2 weeks ago! So does not bode well for what is about to transpire that I am sure will spark even more panic amongst the general population as this now implies that the UK could be heading for over 750 deaths by the end of March 2020!

So it looks like "Herd Immunity" is no longer on the menu, though following that plan up until the end of last week means that the damage has already been done. Where I now would not be surprised if Britain's death toll over the next 3 months could exceed 50,000! Never mind the chaos of having upwards of 2 million people ill trying to get any kind of treatment from an NHS that would be in a state of collapse.

ALL of which was avoidable as South Korea illustrates, not only that but Britain had advance warning from China, South Korea and then Italy of what was coming so had plenty of time to prepare for, instead Boris Johnson's government listened to mad scientists with their herd immunity doctrine.

Thus the UK has been giving advice to the elderly and weak to self quarantine themselves for the next 3 months as I suspect the "herd Immunity" protocol has not really gone away, just watered down a little so as to make the death toll lower and more palatable to the general population than anything in the region of 400,000 to 1.4 million. Therefore likely targeting as death toll of at least 50,000.

CoronaVirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Implications and AI Stocks Buying Levels

The rest of this analysis including AI stocks buying levels has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. https://www.patreon.com/posts/us-and-uk-trend-34969504

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules