UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So Boris Johnson is infected and self isolating, Matt Hancock the Health Minster is infected and self isolating, Chris Whitty the Chief Medical officer is infected and self isolating. Westminister is now turning into a hottest of UK hotspots as the officials and MP's failed to practice that which they preached. Maybe with these idiots out of the picture the nation can act more competently in containing the pandemic. Meanwhile the government representative at the daily briefings has started mentioning that if the UK can keep deaths below 20,000 than that would be a good thing! What's South Korea's number? 150! CRIMINAL! That's what the governments response to Coronavirus has been CRIMINAL! Now there are even reports that the government is under reporting the number of deaths perhaps in attempts to average out the numbers over a month rather than to post spikes that would panic healthcare workers and the general public.

Of course the hidden agenda all along has been one of fostering HERD IMMUNITY amongst the population with the goal of achieving a 60% infection rate as my video from several weeks ago illustrated. Which is why they kept the Schools open for a good 2 weeks longer than they should have done, only closing on the 20th of March, a decision that will cost many thousands of lives!

On the plus side the UK began work on converting large exhibition centres across the UK into huge field hospitals, all named as Nightingale hospitals, with beds ranging from 2000 to 5000 each. Though don't be under much illusion that they will be able to treat at anywhere near same level of regular hospitals, instead high concentration of viral particles will mean people sent there will be at a higher risk of dearth.

However, every action the government has announced to date is a case of chasing the curve rather than being proactive in containing the virus, for if they had been competent and contained the virus South Korea style than this weeks total shutdown and the panic building of temporary hospitals with thousands of beds would have been completely unnecessary!

Even worse, the UK has barely enough ventilators to cope with the current load, let alone for what is to come. Where Dyson the vacuum cleaner says they are going to build 10,000 ventilators, which would be great news were it not for the fact that they state first deliveries will be in about 100 days time! Which where this pandemic is concerned is about 90 days too LATE!

So it's more probable that simpler devices will emerge over the coming week rather than full blown ventilators which clearly are not as easy to make as the Health Secretary was propagandising barely a week ago before he fell victim to Covid-19 due to not following his own social distancing advice.

The NHS staff have been badly let down by an incompetent government, though most governments have proved incompetent other than that of South Korea and Germany which has nearly 7 times the number of critical care beds per head of population as does the UK, which is being reflected in a far lower number of deaths despite having more people testing positive.

My trend forecast as of 22nd of March concluded in the UK trending towards 123,000 infected tested positive, and 8,100 deaths by the end of April 2020.

The latest number of infected is 19,522 which is marginally better than forecast (21,777). Whilst actual deaths reported of 1228 is also marginally better than forecast (1447).

So it appears that the UK is on track for about 8,100 deaths by the end of April which is better than what the governments spokesman started announcing this weekend (for the first time) that if the UK achieved less than 20,000 deaths then that would be considered a success.

The rest of this extensive analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work - US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector

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Nadeem Walayat

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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