Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Precious Metals Complex Big Picture

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020 Jun 07, 2020 - 04:58 PM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Commodities

From the March 23rd low in the PM complex we’ve enjoyed the first easy part of this rally that should have many years to run yet. Every bull market will consist of an impulse move followed by a consolidation period, rinse and repeat until the bull market ends with some type of reversal pattern. Normally in a secular bull market the turning points will generally be very large to buildup the energy to advance to new highs.

The current 2nd leg up in the secular PM complex bull market actually began in January of 2016 after the first leg up ran from 2000 to 2011. There was a cyclical bear market within the secular bull market that ran from the 2011 high to the January 2016 low. It’s important to understand which part of a bull market one is in as to not get confused on what may lay ahead.

Tonight I would like to show you some long term quarterly line charts that I use when looking for big chart patterns that usually show up at important long term reversal points that can take years to complete. I usually only post these charts just a couple of times a year as change comes very slowly but when change does come it’s important to pay close attention because the change usually represents a major trend change.


Keep in mind when looking at these long term quarterly line charts that only the quarterly closing price is used which makes the chart patterns not very symmetrical looking. When I do spot a long term chart pattern on the quarterly line chart I will switch it over to a bar chart which will make the patterns a little more clear. Again, it is the major trend we want to trade with unlike a salmon swimming upstream using up all of its energy before it reaches the spawning grounds.

When looking at these charts to follow we still have over 3 weeks of trading yet before these quarterly line charts complete their 2nd quarter results which will then be put into stone. Also, since these are line charts you will be able to see more clearly reverse symmetry. How a stock goes down is often how it can go back up over that same area, which can play an important role in understanding the potential sweet spots where the price action can easily move with little in the way of resistance.

This is the HUI secular 2000 bull market uptrend channel that I will use as reference to the quarterly line charts to follow.

Lets start with the quarterly line chart for the GDM which begins in the early 1990’s. Keep in mind we are just looking for big chart patterns. It took almost 10 years to complete the double H&S bottom which launched the first leg of the secular bull market that ended at the 2011 high. That first leg of the secular bull market ended with the formation of a very symmetrical multi year H&S top, not so much on this quarterly line chart, but on a bar chart. That H&S top led to the bear market that ended at the January 2016 low. From that low the GDM carved out a 7 year H&S bottom reversal pattern with the long term breakout taking place this quarter. The blue arrows show you how reverse symmetry looks. The reason reverse symmetry works is because there were no big consolidation patterns that were made during the long term rallies and declines. If you look at the bear market decline out of the 2011 H&S top you can see a straight line down without any quarterly rallies. Now look at the current breakout taking place above the neckline. As you can see there is little in the way of slowing down any rally until the price action reaches the 2011 H&S top neckline.

I’m going to show you the exact same chart as the one above but this will be a bar chart so you can see how these two compliment each other.

Next is the quarterly line chart for the HUI which is just beginning its breaking out process.

As we all know gold has been the leader during this second phase of the secular bull market. This quarterly line chart should give you a preview of coming attractions. Note how gold reversed symmetry over the same area on the way down as shown by the blue arrows.

Silver is set up a bit differently than the other areas in the PM complex. As we know silver has been the lagging component within the PM complex. The price action is currently testing the top rail of its 5 point 2016 triangle reversal pattern. A breakout above the top rail will confirm it has joined the second half of the secular bull market in the PM complex.

You may have noticed that some of the 2016 H&S bottoms could also be considered a 5 point bullish rising wedge reversal pattern. I have put both pattens on this quarterly line chart for the XAU so you can see both patterns.

The HGU.TO doesn’t have a lot of history but it appears to be forming a large double bottom reversal pattern.

Next is the GDX which looks like many other big bases we’ve looked at tonight with the combo unbalanced H&S bottom with the 5 point bullish rising wedge reversal pattern. Also notice the possible reverse symmetry that lies just above.

We also know that the GDXJ has been slightly weaker that most of the other PM stock indexes but its now getting close to testing its multi year neckline.

The other weakest component within the PM complex is SIL. If it can close out the month of June right where it is currently trading it will have put in a higher high and higher low which is the first sign of an uptrend.

The GOEX is another area within the PM complex which doesn’t have a lot of history but it does have enough to show a 5 point triangle reversal pattern that is beginning to breakout.

There is no such thing as a guarantee when it comes to the stock markets but the closest thing I can say is that I will get the big picture and trend right which is the most important part of trading. Getting the big trend right is half the battle. All the best…Rambus

All the best

By Rambus Chartology

https://rambus1.com

FREE TRIAL - http://rambus1.com/?page_id=10

© 2020 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in