US election night proved to be a nail biting event, one of Biden taking an early lead that within hours evaporated where by Midnight US time it looked as though Trump could pull off another election miracle like 2016 with a lot of glum faces on the Democrats propaganda network channel CNN, whose presenters spent subsequent hours trying to ignore the stream of bad news by repeating the mantra that there are a lot of Democrat votes to come in later (mail in ballots) after election night is over as if they were party to inside information?

Betting Markets

The betting markets had given a consistent comfortable lead for over a week going into the early hours after the close of the vote with Betfair having Biden typically trading at 1.4 against Trump on 2.9. However come election chaos the betting markets gyrated all over the place, first Trump closing the gap and then even taking the lead! In fact I saw Biden trade to as high as 4 and Trump down to 1.3, and even though the betting market was now saying that Trump was going to win, could not resist putting a sizeable bet on Biden when he was trading over 3 as representing a good risk vs reward with the odds sharply narrowing as the mail in ballots were counted over the subsequent 24 hours.

In fact I suspected that we were going to be in for a night of election chaos and so was primed to take advantage of anomalies the counts threw up as illustrated by my following video posted about 8 hours before the polls closed in the US, warning to expect election chaos as Trump claims an early election victory before the count for the mail in ballots begins, just as subsequently transpired.

Whilst my election forecast conclusion as of 31st October was that the polls were a lot closer than the landslide that the pollsters such as the likes of Nate Silver were peddling, less than than a 3% in it between Biden and Trump -

Stock Market Trend Forecast into January 2021, Final Election Forecast Matrix

With my video version posted on the 1st of November -

It is now some 36 hours on since the betting markets put Biden back in the lead early 4th November since when the odds have narrowed in Biden's favour which thus means the election is basically over, Biden HAS WON! There has been no further volatility in the betting markets.

This analysis is an excerpt from my latest in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into January 2021.

Stock Market Trend Forecast into January 2021, Final Election Forecast Matrix

Stock Market Big Picture
Dow Short-term Analysis
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
VIX Analysis
2020 vs 2016 and 2012
ELLIOTT WAVES
Seasonal Trend / Election Cycle
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Conclusion
US Presidential Election Forecast Matrix Final Update
AI Stocks - AMD is Killing Intel

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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