The Stock Market Big Picture
Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Feb 19, 2021 - 06:54 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has continued to confound all of the doom merchants out there who blindly continue to point to the worst economic contraction since the great depression if not in history for most western economies. All whilst the Dow pushed its way to a new all time high into the end of 2020 and has continued to march ever higher during 2021 in response to which most investors have faced a barrage of that messages that the bubble is always about to burst, whilst my Patrons have received an unequivocal consistent message that this bull market has a long ways to go and that investors should not look a gift horse in the mouth when all of the stocks on my AI list were typically marked down by over 1/3rd against their Pre pandemic trading levels during March 2020.
The Stock Market Big Picture
This bull market began in March 2009! That's nearly 12 YEARS AGO! This is an AGEING BULL MARKET on any traditional measure so it's no wonder that many investors who have missed the greatest bull market in history are desperately seeking it's END in the rambling of broken clocks with their perma end of the bull market Armageddon messages that populate the mainstream financial media. THE END IS ALWAYS NIEGH!
However, against this we have the AI mega-trend that to me suggests this stocks bull market has got many more years to run, well AI tech stocks have at least, that the general stock indices should track to some degree given the ever increasing weight that AI stocks tend to play in their composition, as well as boosting overall corporate productivity.
So how could this translate into stock indices where we have the tug of war taking place of an ageing bull market that wants to follow the rules of the past and turn over into a bear market against this time things being different. The answer is VOLATILITY, the market will gyrate in both directions with little apparent explanation of why, which is a function of where we are on this path that inexorably leads towards super human intelligence. Increasingly we are not going to be able to understand fully the processes that are driving markets, which is why it is important to infer foot prints that we should see manifest in the stock charts beneath the chaos i.e. stock prices will trend higher to a point where most recognise they are trending higher and then abruptly cease to do so and the same holds true on the downside. Which means now more than ever is the time to stay focused on the real trends in motion which is that towards super human intelligence, and I am not talking about Einstein, Newton or even Tesla level of intelligence, for their genius well soon be left behind as this exponential trend continues to unfold.
So to be able to 'predict' stock prices one seeks to infer the impact of an inexorable exponential trend that my best guess as of Mid 2020 was for the overall bull run to in AI stocks into at least 2027, after which the AI will likely be in charge and do what it will do to drive wealth and power into it's orbit. After all the easiest way to get rid of the competition is to crash the market and economy that will result in most humans in the west becoming unemployed and subsisting on a universal basic income trying to make some extra bucks on what were formerly leisure activities, competing in the likes of e-sports and trying to make it big via vlogging of which 2020 was just a taste of what is to come.
This article is an excerpt form latest extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 that has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
- UK Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
- US Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
- Stock Market Forecasts and Analysis Review of 2020
- The Stock Market Big Picture
- Post Covid Economic Boom
- GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS
- FED Balance Sheet
- Dow Short-term Analysis
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Presidential Cycle
- Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)
- Dow Stock Market 2021 Outlook Forecast Conclusion
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
My forthcoming schedule for analysis includes:
- AI stocks buying levels update
- UK house prices trend forecast
- How to Get Rich
- Bitcoin price trend forecast
- US Dollar and British Pound analysis
And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.
Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
Nadeem Walayat Archive |
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
