Dow Stock Market Long-term Trend Analysis

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Mar 11, 2021 - 03:58 PM GMT

The Dow has broken out to new all time highs above 29,600 which successfully held as support during the January correction.

(Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)

TREND CHANNELS - The Dow crashed out of it's 2019 trading channel which it recovered to trade into during November with the lower channel extending to 33k into the end of 2021, and the upper channel to 35,500 thus implies to expect the Dow to trade within this channel during the year. Whilst the newer channels since the Pandemic crash low extend to a range of 34,000 to 35,000 into the end of 2021.

So a bullish 2021 should see the Dow trade between 34,000 and 35,500 during the year, with significant support at 30,000 during the first half of the year.

TREND ANALYSIS - The Dow continues to trend higher making higher highs and lows, and given the behaviour during the January correction there may not be much downside opportunities to accumulate into during the year.

RESISTANCE - Resistance lies at the 32,000, 33,000, 34,000 and 35k.

SUPPORT - There is heavy support between 29,600 and 30,000. I cannot see the Dow trading much below 30,000 during the remainder of 2021.

TRENDLINES - There are 2 rising trend lines off the post pandemic crash lows with the upper acting as short-term support and resistance and the second as key support for 2021, which implies that 30k is unlikely to break on any correction into Mid year.

MACD - MACD is neutral so supportive of a continuing bull run for a couple of months or so.

This article is an excerpt form latest extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 that has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021

UK Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
US Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
Stock Market Forecasts and Analysis Review of 2020
The Stock Market Big Picture
Post Covid Economic Boom
GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS
FED Balance Sheet
Dow Short-term Analysis
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
ELLIOTT WAVES
SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Presidential Cycle
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)
Dow Stock Market 2021 Outlook Forecast Conclusion

As a guide here's my forecast conclusion for 2020 -

31st Dec 2019 - Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020

Dow Stock Market 2020 Outlook Forecast Conclusion

Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Dow to target a trend to between 30,750 and 31,000 by the end of 2020. For a likely gain of 8% to 9% for the year (on the last close of 28,642).

My series of 2020 stock market analysis will seek to map out multi-month detailed trend forecasts as was the case for 2019. With the first to be completed during January, going into which my expectations are for a correction early 2020. Which given my bullish outlook implies should prove to be a buying opportunity.

Here is how the Dow trended during 2020 and where it ended the year.

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And my most recent analysis posted 1st of March - AI Tech Stocks Buying Ratings, Levels and Valuations March 2021

My analysis schedule includes:

High Risk Tech Stocks
UK house prices trend forecast
Bitcoin price trend forecast
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US Dollar and British Pound analysis

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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