Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis

Currencies / Bitcoin Aug 14, 2021 - 10:38 PM GMT

Dear Reader

This is part 4 of 5 of my extensive full spectrum analysis of the crypto markets, of what I expect to happen over the next 6 months in terms of a Bitcoin price trend forecast, and the strategy I am deploying to capitalise on as well as 5 potential black swans that could collapse the crypto markets where Stable Coins such as USDT are what could be imminent catalysts for.

Part 1 Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021,

Part 2 Bitcoin Halvings Price Forecast and Stock to Flow Analysis)

Part 3 Bitcoin, Crypto Market Black Swans from Google to Obsolescence

Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels

Topics covered in this analysis:

Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
Lessons Learned
Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
Black Swan 3 - USDT Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes!
BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
Alternative Scenarios
My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
Crypto's 7 to 10
Creating The Perfect Crypto
How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
CHIA SCAM COIN
Binance vs Coinbase
Have ARK Invest Funds Bottomed?

The whole of this extensive analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for currently just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS

Bitcoins price action during the first half of 2021 was a classic distribution pattern that had the smart money (you and me) SELLING out of Bitcoin and other crypto positions.

The chart shows a lower high followed by a break of the 48,000 low which resulted in a measuring move to $36k, around which Bitcoin has been gyrating as it works off an over sold state i.e. so that the scared crypto investors after the May blood bath can start to feel bullish once more, hence if you go online you are going to see a lot of chest pounding going on out there in the crypto world that each passing day proclaim that the bottom is in, Bitcoin withstood it's test and thus it's a Wyckoff to the moon! $180k by October and more!

When instead all Bitcoin has done is to gradually undo an oversold state all without having gone anywhere in price which should mean that Bitcoin is preparing for another leg lower that could be on par with the decline from $65k to $31k off of about $44k, so technically Bitcoin price could trade as low as $10k! No I don't expect $10k to be probable but it is possible, nevertheless trend analysis so far continues to suggest that significantly lower prices than $31k are more probable than not. Though the moves will be very volatile because there are a lot of technical traders out there, trading on margin and reacting to price triggering moves thus magnifying the price trends in either direction that and exchanges running stops to their own advantage.

Elliot Wave - Suggests that we have seen the first ABC of a probable 3-3-5 wave pattern. Which means the current pattern is corrective, that could even extend higher back towards the Mid $40,000. That I am sure would lull many crypto maniacs into a false sense of security before the REAL bear market begins in percentage terms i.e. the move from the high ($44k?), will likely exceed the 52% drop from $65k. Anyway gaming a 52% off 44k would suggest a target of $22k. Which I would equate as to the upper end of a bear market target for Bitcoin.

Support - In terms of where a falling Bitcoin price would gravitate towards and find support we have $29k, $23.5k, $20k, $18k, $14k, and then heavy support at $11.5k. At this time I can not imagine Bitcoin could trade lower than $11.5k, but it could, just that sitting here at $40k it seems pretty far fetched.

So in terms of trend analysis bitcoin is WEAK. The obvious target is the previous highs at 20k. and even below that we have support all the way to $14k, that should act as the key target range to accumulate Bitcoin in should such a decline materialise.

Price Pattern - Mega head and shoulders pattern (weak pattern), where a a break of the neckline would measure all the way down to $4000! But it is a weak pattern.

Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?

That magic number of $14,000 is cropping up once more when taking an average of the last 4 Bitcoin bear markets, this analysis also suggests that the bear market could run into 2022.

However taking the more conservative last bear market into March 2020 would project to a bottom at around Bitcoin $18,000 during December 2021.

Bitcoin Trend Forecast

The rest of this extensive analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for currently just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels

Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
Lessons Learned
Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
Black Swan 3 - USDT Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes!
BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
Alternative Scenarios
My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
Crypto's 7 to 10
Creating The Perfect Crypto
How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
CHIA SCAM COIN
Binance vs Coinbase
Have ARK Invest Funds Bottomed?

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Again for immediate access to all of my analysis then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your crypto's accumulating analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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