Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Stocks Break to New Yearly Lows!

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021 Aug 21, 2021 - 07:31 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Commodities

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a breakdown! Gold stocks underperformed the yellow metal so much that they reached the lowest levels seen this year…

The HUI Index (gold stocks) broke to new 2021 lows while the USD Index broke to new 2021 highs. Just as I’ve been warning you.

Mining stocks’ extreme weakness relative to gold continued yesterday, and while it may seem like the weakness has to have a limit, this limit is likely still quite far from the markets right now.

Let’s take a look at the long-term HUI Index chart for details.





Remember when I told you that the tiny buy signal from the stochastic indicator was unlikely to trigger anything more than a brief pause? That was based on the analogy to what happened in late 2012 when miners paused, and then the decline simply continued. Well, gold stocks did exactly that and gold stocks declined once again. Right now, they are right after the breakdown to new yearly lows, and this has profound implications in light of the analogy to the 2012 – 2013 decline.

You see, when the HUI Index declined below the previous lows back in 2013, it meant that the biggest part of the slide was underway. The profit potential was still there, as it was still the first half of the biggest decline, but it meant that waiting for another big rebound in order to add to one’s short positions was not a good idea.

To clarify, there were two short-term consolidations soon after the breakdown in 2013. One of them took the HUI about 4% higher (in February 2013) and then we saw a decline. Afterwards, about 7%-8% correction (in March 2013) followed and then the biggest part of the decline took place.

Consequently, we might see a consolidation in gold stocks quite soon, but I wouldn’t expect it to be anything to write home about. At the current price levels, 4% – 8% means a decline of about 9 – 19 index. In the case of the GDXJ (if it moved in tune with the HUI), it would imply a move up by $1.5 - $3.

Of course, this is a hypothetical discussion of what might happen when gold stocks correct, but it doesn’t imply that they are likely to correct now. Actually, the opposite seems likely because of the HUI’s breakdown and the USD’s breakout. Again, forecasting gold stocks at higher levels in the near term might be a dangerous thing to do.

So, to clarify, the above-mentioned corrective upswing is likely to take place after another short-term move lower. If the GDXJ bottoms at about $35, then seeing it correct to about $36.5 - $38 will be quite normal.

As far as the short-term price moves in the mining stocks are concerned, my previous comments remain up-to-date. Yesterday, I wrote the following about the GDX ETF:



What happened? Senior gold miners finally broke decisively below the neck level of their head-and-shoulders formation, while juniors’ freefall continued.

Yesterday, senior miners closed below the neck level of the pattern for the second day, which means that the breakdown is almost confirmed.

The GDX has encountered strong support provided by the previous 2021 lows, but it doesn’t mean that we have to see a rebound here. Why? Because other proxies for mining stocks are already after the breakdown. This is the case with the GDXJ ETF, the HUI Index, and also the XAU Index. Even silver stocks – the SIL ETF –closed below the previous 2021 lows for the second day in a row.

So, did mining stocks encounter strong support here? Not really, only one of the proxies did – the GDX ETF. The remaining ones are already after a breakdown to new 2021 lows, and if we get a weekly close below them as well, the breakdown will be confirmed.

Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.

Thank you.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments - SunshineProfits.com

Tools für Effektives Gold- und Silber-Investment - SunshineProfits.DE

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in