Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow has barely had any significant correction in now approaching a year, chugging along the upper resistance trend line for the past 6 months.

TREND CHANNELS - The Dow fought it's way back into it's tight converging bull market trend channel, all the way towards trading beyond the channel for the past 6 months. The channel extends to 35,500 and 34000 into the end of the year. Whilst the Dow has fallen below the converging post pandemic crash channels thus signaling weakness.

TREND ANALYSIS - The Dow has now made a lower high and low and thus signaled a trend change of sorts right smack at the weakest time of the year. So implies to expect a correction to at least target the May low of $33.3k along which exists significant support. so it's going to be tough for this strong bull market to trade below $33.3k. However below that we have the gap from 28,500 to 29000. Will the Dow fill the gap? It's going to be tough to do given the amount of support. It would take a panic event to do so. At this point at best the Dow appears to be targeting is the string of highs at 31.5k as the probable low.

RESISTANCE - Resistance is along a string of highs just over 35k, to 35.6k.

SUPPORT - There is heavy support at 33k and 31.5k.

TRENDLINES - Apart from the channels there is the support trendline from the first post pandemic low that extends to 33k into Mid Oct, so suggests 33k could be the lowest a correction could carry.

MACD - MACD has been unwinding an overbought state during the rally. So suggests a mild correction to prime the Dow for it's next advance into the end of the year.

This article was an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis on the prospects for the stock market into Mid 2022 see - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Contents:

• Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
• Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
• US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
• US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
• Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
• Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
• FED Balance Sheet
• Weakening Stock Market Breadth
• Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
• FANG Stocks
• Margin Debt
• Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
• Dow Annual Percent Change
• Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
• ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
• Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
• SEASONAL ANALYSIS
• Short-term Seasonal Trend
• US Presidential Cycle 
• Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
• 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
• Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
• Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
• Investing fundamentals
• IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
• AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
• My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
• HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
• Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
• CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
• Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
• Aukus Ruckus

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Including access to my most recent extensive analysis updating AI stocks buying levels as we head into the year end stock market rally .

AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing

Contents:
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
The China Syndrome
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
INVESTING LESSON - BUYING VALUE
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
How Stagflation Effects Stocks
INTEL Bargain - 15.5% Discount Sale
Why Intel stock price dropped 15%?
FACEBOOK - 10% DIscount
IBM - 20% Discount
Amazon - 5% Discount
APPLE 4% Discount
AMD $136 on Route to $200
TSMC - $117
Microsoft $336
Google $2980, PE 28.7, EC 30.
Nvidia Leaves planet Earth - $299, PE of 106
Heads Up on NEW Potential Tech Stocks
AI Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels
AI Stocks Buying Plan B
FREE TRADE the Perfect Stocks and Shares ISA?
FREE SHARE FROM FREETRADE
High Risk Stocks Brief
Crypto's 20% Discount Event
Bitcoin Trend
Palladium Brief

And my latest analysis Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022, CHINOBLE! AI Stocks Buying Plan

• UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum
• The 2% Inflation SCAM, Millions of Workers take the Red Pill
• Silver Previous Forecast Recap
• Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver
• Silver Supply and Demand
• Silver vs US Dollar
• Gold / Silver Ratio
• SILVER Trend Analysis
• Long-term Trend Analysis
• Formulating a Trend Forecast
• Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022
• Silver Investing Strategy
• SIL ETF - What About Silver Mining Stocks?
• Gold Price Trend Brief
• Why the CCP is Living on Borrowed Time and Needs a War
• Understanding the Chinese Regime and What it is Capable Of
• Guanxi
• Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak
• CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction!
• AI Stocks Portfolio Investing Strategy
• AI Stocks Portfolio Amendments
• AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
• October Investing Plan
• HIGH RISK STOCKS INVEST AND FORGET PORTFOLIO
• Why China Could Crash Bitcoin / Crypto's!
• My Next Analysis

My analysis schedule includes:

• Silver Price Trend Analysis, AI Stocks Portfolio Update - Complete
• Warning Crypto Markets Are About to Explode Higher!
• How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

• UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada - 15% done
• US Dollar and British Pound analysis
• Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your AI data preprocessing analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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