Stock Market Long and Short-term Seasonal Trends

Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends Nov 10, 2021 - 03:02 PM GMT

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.

This year we got our strong July and a strong August which was contrary to the bull markets usual pattern. Which means that whilst the bull market has had a tendency to go against it's longer term seasonal trend by moving higher during September, nevertheless the strong August likely sows the seeds for a weak September. Then it's a case of off to the races for a Strong October, even stronger November and more gains in December courtesy of Santa all before a weak January and February.

So the seasonal pattern points to a window of opportunity spanning September and likely into Mid October to allow one to pick up stocks trading at a discount of sorts hence my original plan to buy back stocks after the October low, following which the bull trend is expected to resume into the end of the year. Especially take note of November strengthening over time which looks like the santa rally starting earlier each year as investors attempt to preempt exposure and thus December has been gradually losing it's stock market lustre to November. So one should want to be positioned BEFORE the start of November else be chasing after rising stock prices all month long.

Though note If what we have seen is THE BULL MARKET TOP then well we won't get a Santa rally, what we probably will get is a stock market bouncing around in a trading range repeatedly off or near the October lows. It's going to be an interesting next few months, imagine the shock on market participants if come December stocks aren't trading much off their October lows and perhaps nudging below from time to time.

Short-term Seasonal Trend

Short-term seasonal pattern for the past 2 years has been fairly robust, i.e. higher lows all the way! This years high going into the correction season came Mid August which therefore means there is not much time left for more downside price action before a counter trend rally, thus stocks should bottom fairly soon for a rally of sorts. Now to achieve a low around Mid October the rally would need to be pretty brief in terms of time. How likely is this pattern to unfold? The early October rally appears to be too brief to seem natural, thus we may get the rally starting earlier and continuing a little later into October which therefore suggests the final sell off continuing deeper into the 2nd half of October, maybe into the end of October so as to spread the trend out into a more natural price pattern.

This article was an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis on the prospects for the stock market into Mid 2022 see - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Contents:

Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
FED Balance Sheet
Weakening Stock Market Breadth
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
FANG Stocks
Margin Debt
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
Dow Annual Percent Change
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Short-term Seasonal Trend
US Presidential Cycle
Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
Investing fundamentals
IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
Aukus Ruckus

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AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing

Contents:
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
The China Syndrome
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
INVESTING LESSON - BUYING VALUE
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
How Stagflation Effects Stocks
INTEL Bargain - 15.5% Discount Sale
Why Intel stock price dropped 15%?
FACEBOOK - 10% DIscount
IBM - 20% Discount
Amazon - 5% Discount
APPLE 4% Discount
AMD $136 on Route to $200
TSMC - $117
Microsoft $336
Google $2980, PE 28.7, EC 30.
Nvidia Leaves planet Earth - $299, PE of 106
Heads Up on NEW Potential Tech Stocks
AI Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels
AI Stocks Buying Plan B
FREE TRADE the Perfect Stocks and Shares ISA?
FREE SHARE FROM FREETRADE
High Risk Stocks Brief
Crypto's 20% Discount Event
Bitcoin Trend
Palladium Brief

And my latest analysis Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022, CHINOBLE! AI Stocks Buying Plan

UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum
The 2% Inflation SCAM, Millions of Workers take the Red Pill
Silver Previous Forecast Recap
Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver
Silver Supply and Demand
Silver vs US Dollar
Gold / Silver Ratio
SILVER Trend Analysis
Long-term Trend Analysis
Formulating a Trend Forecast
Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022
Silver Investing Strategy
SIL ETF - What About Silver Mining Stocks?
Gold Price Trend Brief
Why the CCP is Living on Borrowed Time and Needs a War
Understanding the Chinese Regime and What it is Capable Of
Guanxi
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction!
AI Stocks Portfolio Investing Strategy
AI Stocks Portfolio Amendments
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
October Investing Plan
HIGH RISK STOCKS INVEST AND FORGET PORTFOLIO
Why China Could Crash Bitcoin / Crypto's!
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Warning Crypto Markets Are About to Explode Higher!
How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

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US Dollar and British Pound analysis
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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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