US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Nov 20, 2021 - 08:53 PM GMT

The first thesis is that when the dollar and yields are rising then stocks should be falling because it is seen as being deflationary, risk off. The actual correlation is basically 50/50, a coin flip. So a rising dollar and yields is a con flip for stock market weakness.

The second thesis is that rising interest rates are bearish for stocks and thus falling interest rates are bullish for stocks. In fact the opposite appears to be true, rising interest rates are bullish for stocks, whilst falling interest rates tend to be bearish for stocks. Which makes sense as the Fed raises interest rates to cool an overheating economy and cuts interest rates to stimulate a weak economy. So rising interest rates are definitely bullish for stocks. Whilst falling interest rates are usually eventually bullish for stocks (pattern since 2008).

So the sooner the Fed tapers and raises interest rates the better the outlook for the stock market.

Stock Market Conclusion

Stock market correction so far has been fairly mild with the tech stocks not reaching levels to offer enough of a discount to justify exposure to in the face of the coming inflation storm. Whilst October is not done with yet i.e. we could yet see a final leg down, especially given the potential for earnings surprises form the tech giants due over the next 10 days.. However with each passing day such an outcome diminishes, thus the stock market appears to be gearing up for another run to new all time highs which given the mild correction so far suggests that the Dow could trade nearer to 40k, than 37k by the end of this year.

However, my outlook for 2022 sees worsening conditions that will see transitory inflation become permanent, so there is going to come a time when investors will do the math of what high inflation means for future corporate earnings, i.e. lower earnings due to rising costs and less disposable incomes. Hence it remains highly probable that most stocks will trade to below their October 2021 lows during 2022.

This article is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis of why inflation will be far from transitory, so batton down the hatches for whats to come- Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation

Contents:

Best Real Terms Asset Price Growth Countries for the Next 10 Years
Worst Real Terms Asset Price Growth Countries for the Next 10 Years
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND
Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation!
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
US Dollar - Stocks Correlation
US Dollar vs Yields vs Dow
Stock Market Conclusion
34th Anniversary of the Greatest Crash in Stock Market History - 1987
Key Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
October Investing Plan
HIGH RISK STOCKS INVEST AND FORGET PORTFOLIO
Can US Save Taiwan From China?

Also access to my latest extensive analysis - AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing

Contents:
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
The China Syndrome
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
INVESTING LESSON - BUYING VALUE
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
How Stagflation Effects Stocks
INTEL Bargain - 15.5% Discount Sale
Why Intel stock price dropped 15%?
FACEBOOK - 10% DIscount
IBM - 20% Discount
Amazon - 5% Discount
APPLE 4% Discount
AMD $136 on Route to $200
TSMC - $117
Microsoft $336
Google $2980, PE 28.7, EC 30.
Nvidia Leaves planet Earth - $299, PE of 106
Heads Up on NEW Potential Tech Stocks
AI Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels
AI Stocks Buying Plan B
FREE TRADE the Perfect Stocks and Shares ISA?
FREE SHARE FROM FREETRADE
High Risk Stocks Brief
Crypto's 20% Discount Event
Bitcoin Trend
Palladium Brief

The whole of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Also access to my recent analysis that maps out what I expect to happen during the next big crypto bull market is only just beginning for most crypto's

Bitcoin NEW All time High is TRIGGER for Future Alt Coins Price Explosion

Contents:

Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend
Crypto Portfolio Current State
The BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING!
Ravencoin to the MOON!
What am I doing?
How to Invest in Crypto's
Bitcoin 2022 Price Target
Ethereum 2022 Price Target
Ravencoin 2022 Price Target
Cardano (ADA) 2022 Price Target
Chainlink 2022 Price Target
Pokadot 2022 Price Target
Solano 2022 Price Target
Litecoin 2022 Price Target
Arweave 2022 Price Target
Stellar Lumens - XLM 2022 Price Target
Eth Classic 2022 Price Target
Vechain 2022 Price Target
EOS 2022 Price Target
Earnings Noise Delivers INTEL And IBM Buy Opps
Facebook and Google Could CRASH 10% Post Earnings Day
High Risk Stocks Swings and Roundabouts

For crypto trading and investing see Binance for 10% discount on trading fees - Discount Code LZ728VLZ

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For GPU mining check out Nicehash (affiliate links).

And access to why inflation will be far from transitory, batten down the hatches for what's to come-

And my extensive analysis of Silver concluding in a trend forecast into Mid 2022.

Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022, CHINOBLE! AI Stocks Buying Plan

UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum
The 2% Inflation SCAM, Millions of Workers take the Red Pill
Silver Previous Forecast Recap
Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver
Silver Supply and Demand
Silver vs US Dollar
Gold / Silver Ratio
SILVER Trend Analysis
Long-term Trend Analysis
Formulating a Trend Forecast
Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022
Silver Investing Strategy
SIL ETF - What About Silver Mining Stocks?
Gold Price Trend Brief
Why the CCP is Living on Borrowed Time and Needs a War
Understanding the Chinese Regime and What it is Capable Of
Guanxi
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction!
AI Stocks Portfolio Investing Strategy
AI Stocks Portfolio Amendments
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
October Investing Plan
HIGH RISK STOCKS INVEST AND FORGET PORTFOLIO
Why China Could Crash Bitcoin / Crypto's!
My Next Analysis

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My analysis schedule includes:

UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada and China - 65% done
How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

US Dollar and British Pound analysis
Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your AI data preprocessing analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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