Silver Long-term Trend Analysis

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021 Nov 28, 2021 - 04:28 PM GMT

Silver during the post pandemic gold rush managed to break above resistance at $21 that propelled the price 50% higher to just over $30 which the price is now correcting from, and silver being silver the trends tend to be deep and messy, hence why Silver has just about retraced the whole of the breakout move.

(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)

Nevertheless, the break out was decisive and thus the subsequent price action should be seen as being corrective even if the Silver price falls back below the breakout point of $21,

Moving Average - For the Silver bull to resume it needs to cross it's 200day moving average which is at a distant $25.5, but falling each day.

Support - Silver has huge amount of support in the zone $19 to $18 which should contain any decline into this price zone. Technically one would expect a bounce at $19, but Silver does not care much for nice and neat technical's so a spike down to $18 is probable.

Elliott Wave - The simplest pattern resolves to Silver being in a Wave 4 correction that is supported by the sub wave structure of ABC waves. Which implies that when the dust settles the Silver bull is going to make another run for higher highs beyond $30. And if Silver replicated the near 50% advance off $21 then that would imply $45!

MACD - MACD has worked out of it's overbought state. I hear the Wall street Bets crowd attempted something with Silver early in the year but got their fingers burnt and likely have largely fled the scene by now. In fact the MACD implies that downside is limited.

Seasonal Pattern - September tends to be weak, October strong, November weak, with December and January very strong, with Feb and March weak, followed by a bull run into the end of May. So the seasonally weakest period for Silver should be over and so Silver price should overall be heading higher into May 2022.

Pattern Recognition - A weak June, July, August and September implies the bear market could continue into Feb 2022 i.e. weakness continuing for another 5 months! Followed by a bull run into the end of May.

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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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