M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance
Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022 Mar 07, 2022 - 09:53 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The Ukrainian people have sleep walked into a nightmare that they did not see coming, neither did much of that which purports to be the mainstream press. However my consistent view since late January (AI Stocks Multi Buying Levels to Capitalise on the Stock Market Panic of 2022) has been that -
a. Russia WILL invade Ukraine.
b. That Putin wants the WHOLE of Ukraine.
c. That Putin is prepared to destroy the WHOLE of Ukraine, flatten every city to achieve victory.
And then we had the risk of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons if the war did not go his way.
And after the war comes the Moldova War and Putin could even target NATO baltic states!
Finally throw in the other armed to the teeth dictator in China and we have the makings of World War 3 as my following recant video illustrates of what China is likely planning for Taiwan.
This article is part 1 from my recent in-depth analysis that mapped out how low AI tech stocks could trade down to during the the coming series of stock market panic events of 2022.
Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
m = f - Everything is Waving!
How to Invest in Stocks 20202 and Beyond
Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Storm
Stock Market Forward Guidance
50% DRAWDOWNS ARE THE NORM!
Current State of Draw downs
Quantum AI Stocks Portfolio Current
AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
Earnings Growth Factor
GOOGLE TO BE SLICIED INTO 20 PIECES!
FACBOOK MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Whilst CNBC Clowns Buy the TOP and SELL the BOTTOM!
MICROSOFT Short and Sharp
Still Waiting to Take a BITE out of APPLE
NVIDIA is ARMless - To Buy or Not to Buy, that is the question.
AMD - The Chip Master
TSMC - The World's Supreme Chip Fabricator
AMAZON the Dark Horse!
ARKK SARK SHORT FUND
That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Whilst my most recent article taht you all got a taste of in my last newsletter is focussed on capitalising on the downward spiral in stock prices in response to first Inflation Panic and now plus Ukraine War Panic. With the primary focus on identifying 5 small cap tech growth stocks to add to my High Risk stocks portfolio out of a short list of 50 stocks.
World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War!
What Putin Plans for Ukraine
JRS.L Capitalising on Russia's War CRASHED Stocks
THE 2020's INFLATION MONSTER!
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
Stock Market FOMO Gives Way to FEAR of Buying the Dip
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State With Updated Buying Levels
FACEBOOK Stock 45% CRASH - Game Over for META?
FACEBOOK RINSE AND REPEAT
INVESTING LESSON - HAVE A PLAN AND THEN EXECUTE IT!
HIGH RISK STOCKS - INVEST AND FORGET
High Risk Stocks Portfolio Revised Buying Levels
GROWTH STOCKS TO CAPITALISE ON THE PANIC OF 2022
1. XXXX - RANK 1 - $121.8, PE 7.8, EGF 38%
2. XXXX - RANK 1 - $58.5, PE 9.9, EGF 30%
3. XXXX- RANK 2 - $16.7, PE 8.7, EGF 33%
4. XXXX - RANK 2 - $89.5, PE 17.2, EGF 23%
5. XXXX - RANK 2 - $49.7 - PE 196, EGF 188%
And gain access to my recent timely analysis lays out how to invest in during the panic of 2022, to be soon followed by scheduled analysis that continues my trend forecast into the end of 2022.
HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond
CONTENTS:
1. UNDERSTAND WHAT INVESTING IS
2. INVEST IN GOOD COMPANIES
3. UNDERSTAND THAT WHICH ONE IS INVESTING IN
4. STOCK PRICES
5. EARNINGS CATCHUP TRADING RANGE TREND PATTERN
6. EMOTIONAL INVESTING
7. MONITORING AND LIMITING EXPOSURE IS MOST IMPORTANT
8. BUY AND SELL on the Basis of VALUATIONS
9. INVESTORS BIGGEST MISTAKE
10. BEST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
11. WORST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
12. BUY VOLATILITY
13. INVESTING TIME
14. FUND MANAGERS
15. OPTIONS
16 . INFLATION
17. INVEST AND FOREGET
AI Tech Stocks Draw down and End of Year 2022 Price Targets
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Note: The information provided in this article is solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation or personalised advice.
m = f - Everything is Waving!
Imagine in the 1960's most had little idea of the world that the transistor would herald beyond that of maybe transistor radios and colour Tv's! Personal computers weren't even in most peoples imagination given that the movies and media of the day painted a picture of computing equating to giant super computers.
Imagine in the 1970's when few paid attention to Intel's 4004 processor that started the microprocessor ball rolling all thanks to Japan's Nippon Calculating Machine Corporation (Busicom) that contracted the tech start up to design 12 custom chips for them, in response to which rather than developing 12 custom chips Intel decided it was more cost effective to just develop one multipurpose processor that could be programmed and so was born what would become the 4004. Only one problem the Japanese company Busicom owned the rights to the chip! Intel eventually offered to return Busicom's $60k investment in exchange for the rights which the struggling Japanese company agreed to and the rest is history! Or will be when IBM gave Intel what it had been seeking for a decade, a big buyer with deep pockets to commit to volume orders for it's processors by ordering 10,000 units per year from 1982 onwards. All forgotten today just how small Intel was for a good 13 years since inception and that it was only when IBM started making use of Intel processors in IBM PC's that Intel started to take off.
Imagine in the 1980's with primitive inter-network services offering mostly low resolution text to dial into. coupled with hobbyists such as my self running bulletin board systems that other BBS's would dial into during the early hours to exchange information such as documents, images and emails that would take several days to hop between BBS systems to reach their destinations in the UK alone, with a good chance that many would get lost along the way. Whilst trans atlantic emails could take several weeks to reach their final destinations, little had any idea that this would become the corner stone of every day life as the internet has been now for a good 20 years!
And so it is with emerging artificial intelligence, AI will change everything on an epic scale, a trend that is now starting to become manifest with self driving cars that are literally just around the corner with humanoid robots to follow not long after.
However, the biggest change of the lot, bigger even than AI is once more not even on most peoples radar and that is Quantum Computing through which we can only truly begin to grasp the true nature of reality as so far even with the standard model of particle physics we only vaguely glimpse at the true nature of reality that likely has yet to condense down to probable single point like particle from which everything follows.
QUANTUM COMPUTERS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING FOR OUR REALITY IS QUANTUM in nature, everything resolves to the Quantum level. Not so long ago we thought that the Sun could not be older than a 100 million years (Lord Kelvin 1866) because it would have burnt itself out by now if it were any older.
It would be a good 50 years with the advent of Quantum Mechanics before we start to get a glimpse into the true nature reality that our existence is built upon, that drives the likes of the SUN, fusion largely courtesy of quantum tunneling that allows protons to overcome electromagnetism and fuse unto helium
For instance quantum entanglement implies that everything is instantly connected via a wave function as energy ripples or excitations in quantum fields.
Empty space is not empty, virtual particles are constantly coming in and out of existence, the so called vacuum fluctuation. We exist in a reality that is mind bending and boggling fluctuations of virtual particles that come in and out of existence. Something from nothing means that the sum of the whole equals nothing!
We need quantum computers to investigate where the quantum fields come from which will likely herald a new era (for good or for bad) the implications for which we can barely imagine in sci-fi movies. For instance to answer whether the universe is deterministic or not.
Perhaps the ultimate fate for humanity is in some eons in the far distant future like Gods in their last act give birth to the next singularity fine tuned for matter, stars, black holes, galaxies, with a sprinkling of life baring planets universe. Perhaps that is how our universe also began? An intelligence in a dying universe giving birth to our fine tuned universe as their final act before they headed off into their long night.
Until then, let's make sure we are well positioned to ride both the AI and Quantum mega-trends that most still fail to comprehend the exponential nature of whenever the financial world gives us opportunities to accumulate into such as they did in March 2020 and just as they are doing right now during February 2022 because one day people are going to wake up and smell the coffee and realise what's happening, but of course by then it will be too late to look back in hindsight wish one had acted years earlier just as one does today at Intel of the 1970's and so on.
How to Invest in Stocks 20202 and Beyond
First order of bushiness is to quickly skim thorough my recent how to invest analysis which is exclusive to patrons only so that we are all reading from the same page,
HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond
1. UNDERSTAND WHAT INVESTING IS
2. INVEST IN GOOD COMPANIES
3. UNDERSTAND THAT WHICH ONE IS INVESTING IN
4. STOCK PRICES
5. EARNINGS CATCHUP TRADING RANGE TREND PATTERN
6. EMOTIONAL INVESTING
7. MONITORING AND LIMITING EXPOSURE IS MOST IMPORTANT
8. BUY AND SELL on the Basis of VALUATIONS
9. INVESTORS BIGGEST MISTAKE
10. BEST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
11. WORST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
12. BUY VOLATILITY
13. INVESTING TIME
14. FUND MANAGERS
15. OPTIONS
16 . INFLATION
17. INVEST AND FOREGET
AI Tech Stocks Draw down and End of Year 2022 Price Targets
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE
Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Storm
A quick recap on the state of play (saving time by using existing charts) in terms of my trend expectations as of September 2021 for the Dow to correct form early January to at least Mid February, which my CI18 Switch of 5th Dec deepened somewhat.
My last update showed the steep pace of decline that was ahead of forecast trend trajectory which implied over shoot to the downside both in terms of price and time, though I did conclude to expect a relief rally for at least the first few days of last week that transpired.
With more bearish expectations for the Nasdaq for ultimately steep trend to some way below 13.000.
In terms of the Dow I have 31k penciled in as a target for the current sell off, though there is always the risk of overshoot to the downside due to the ongoing high risk of a panic event triggering water fall drops. Still 31k off the last close 35,070 would represent a pretty sharp drop of 12% and you can near double that for most tech stocks, which means many of those distant buying levels that we are all salivating over are still in play!
Stock Market Forward Guidance
Since the Fed tends to give forward guidance so shall I, my expectations are for the stock market to have put in a significant bottom BEFORE the first Fed rate hike, after which stocks on balance should enter into an uptrend into Summer. Following which there is the risk of a second significant sell off that at best targets a double bottom and worst lower lows as out of control Inflation continues to imply to expect a recession, which means corporate earnings would contract sending valuations higher and stock prices lower, which I will cover the trend implications of in my forthcoming analysis..
50% DRAWDOWNS ARE THE NORM!
The indices tend to smooth out what is actually taking place in the stock market, as we have had a taste of these past few weeks where some stocks have stuck near their highs, even risen in price, the likes of LMT and GPN, whilst others have crashed and burned all whilst the Dow is currently down barely 5.5% off it's all time high! Try telling that to holders of MOST stocks that are typically down by 50% or more off their highs! And now being joined by FAANGBOOK,
Investors HAVE to expect the potential for 50% draw downs, THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS TO MOST STOCKS MOST YEARS!
That is the cost of investing in the stock market, does not matter that the stock is Google, Apple, Amazon, FACEBOOK!, 50% DRAWDOWNS, IF YOU CANNOT DEAL WITH THIS FACT THEN DO NOT INVEST IN THE STOCK MARKET because it is normal! And why I often say just invest and forget and you'll save yourselves a lot of grief staring at the draw downs that WILL HAPPEN REGARDLESS OF STOCK!
Yes one can diminish the potential for draw downs by distributing into over valued FOMO highs as I and many Patrons were doing during Q3 and Q4 last year, coupled with then BUYING the DEVIATIONS from the highs and thus one can manage to smooth things out somewhat. For instance by selling most of my Facebook and buying it back at first around $301 and then sub $240, brings my average NEW exposure price down to $273, which is a a 30% deviation from the high, so my potential draw down risk to say $200 (about half Facebook high) is for about a 25% draw down. Which is about the best investors can hope to achieve without having the benefit of HINDSIGHT!
The rest of this analysis was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
Content:
m = f - Everything is Waving!
How to Invest in Stocks 20202 and Beyond
Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Storm
Stock Market Forward Guidance
50% DRAWDOWNS ARE THE NORM!
Current State of Draw downs
Quantum AI Stocks Portfolio Current
AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
Earnings Growth Factor
GOOGLE TO BE SLICIED INTO 20 PIECES!
FACBOOK MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Whilst CNBC Clowns Buy the TOP and SELL the BOTTOM!
MICROSOFT Short and Sharp
Still Waiting to Take a BITE out of APPLE
NVIDIA is ARMless - To Buy or Not to Buy, that is the question.
AMD - The Chip Master
TSMC - The World's Supreme Chip Fabricator
AMAZON the Dark Horse!
ARKK SARK SHORT FUND
My analysis schedule includes:
- UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada and China - 65% done
- Stock Market Trend Forecast Mid Feb to End 2022
- How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.
- US Dollar and British Pound analysis
- Gold Price Trend Analysis
Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Your analyst capitalising on the series of stock market panic selling events (discount sales).
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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