Learn to Value Stocks Using the Earnings Growth Factor

InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest Mar 29, 2022 - 02:19 PM GMT

After the current panic passes I will revert to posting my primary AI stocks table as the main table for data, presently the table retains my original pre-panic buying levels as of 22nd November 2022 for comparison purposes with levels achieved in red against those that remain pending. Remember all of these levels once upon a time seemed far out of reach, who could have imagined Nvidia would fall from $336 to $236 over a couple of months! Google to $2625! Microsoft to $282, Intel to $48, okay I'll give you Intel, but many of the levels have now been achieved and then some!

Large version - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Feb/NW-AI-Stocks-Port-Table-Big-5-2-22.jpg

Also note upgrades to the table in response to Patron feedback. I now include a column the shows my current exposure as a percentage of target for an explanation of what this exactly means see item 7 in my earlier analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond). But basically it shows what I am focused on accumulating i.e. I am only 30% invested in Google of target exposure so I am eager to buy more Google stock. Whilst I am fully invested in Intel and Facebook.

Earnings Growth Factor

Another new column is the earnings growth factor. A useful little pocket knife indicator that I use that unlike the EC ratio anyone can calculate for themselves for any stock by following these steps -

1. Obtain stocks current PE ratio (last 4 EPS).

2. Divide share price by (current quarters EPS X 4).

3. Divide Step 1 PE by Step 2 to get the earnings growth factor.

So for Google -

1. Current PE ratio 25.5,

2. Current Share Price $2860 divided by (EPS $30.69 X4 = $122.76) = 23.3

4. 25.5 divided by 23.3 = 9%.

The higher the growth factor the better the stocks future prospects. Now couple this with the PE ratio and the EC ratio and one gets a good picture of a stocks valuation right now.

For instance look at Amazons EGF of 71%! Conversely look at intel's negative EGF of -20%. However that bad score is partially offset by the low PE of 8.8 and and EC score of 13.

So for a truly great stock to buy right now one wants to see a high EGF, coupled with a low PE and low EC.

The number 1 stock right now that fits the bill is surprise, surprise APPLE! The one stock that has so far refused to budge lower! Though this list of GOOD stocks contains several close contenders such as Qualcom, AMD, Nvidia, and of course Amazon!

I have also added the stocks that were on my watch list to buy into the primary table that I briefly covered in my last analysis, apart from Oracle, and where apart from Micron these were all unplanned buys where distant limit orders that I have had in place for some time were triggered during the recent sell off.. Stocks that I will cover in-depth in future updates, but all are what I consider secondary stocks. Whilst AMD and TSMC now rise to Primary status. And if one needs clarification on this Primary means that these are THE PRIMARY AI tech stocks to be invested in for the long-run, with Google as numero uno.

And now for visualising the buying levels for the 9 primary AI tech stocks..

This article is an excerpt from my recent in-depth analysis that mapped out how low AI tech stocks could trade during the stock market panic of 2022.

Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels

Content:
m = f - Everything is Waving!
How to Invest in Stocks 20202 and Beyond
Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Storm
Stock Market Forward Guidance
50% DRAWDOWNS ARE THE NORM!
Current State of Draw downs
Quantum AI Stocks Portfolio Current
AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
Earnings Growth Factor
GOOGLE TO BE SLICIED INTO 20 PIECES!
FACBOOK MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Whilst CNBC Clowns Buy the TOP and SELL the BOTTOM!
MICROSOFT Short and Sharp
Still Waiting to Take a BITE out of APPLE
NVIDIA is ARMless - To Buy or Not to Buy, that is the question.
AMD - The Chip Master
TSMC - The World's Supreme Chip Fabricator
AMAZON the Dark Horse!
ARKK SARK SHORT FUND

That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Also access to my most recent analysis focused on continuing to capitalise on the downward spiral in stock price in response to first Inflation Panic and now added to by War Panic.

50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation and Ukraine War Panic

World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War!
What Putin Plans for Ukraine
JRS.L Capitalising on Russia's War CRASHED Stocks
THE 2020's INFLATION MONSTER!
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
Stock Market FOMO Gives Way to FEAR of Buying the Dip
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State With Updated Buying Levels
FACEBOOK Stock 45% CRASH - Game Over for META?
FACEBOOK RINSE AND REPEAT
INVESTING LESSON - HAVE A PLAN AND THEN EXECUTE IT!
HIGH RISK STOCKS - INVEST AND FORGET
High Risk Stocks Portfolio Revised Buying Levels
GROWTH STOCKS TO CAPITALISE ON THE PANIC OF 2022
1. XXXX - RANK 1 - $121.8, PE 7.8, EGF 38%
2. XXXX - RANK 1 - $58.5, PE 9.9, EGF 30%
3. XXXX- RANK 2 - $16.7, PE 8.7, EGF 33%
4. XXXX - RANK 2 - $89.5, PE 17.2, EGF 23%
5. XXXX - RANK 2 - $49.7 - PE 196, EGF 188%

And gain access to my recent timely analysis lays out how to invest in during the panic of 2022, to be soon followed by scheduled analysis that continues my trend forecast into the end of 2022.

HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond

CONTENTS:
1. UNDERSTAND WHAT INVESTING IS
2. INVEST IN GOOD COMPANIES
3. UNDERSTAND THAT WHICH ONE IS INVESTING IN
4. STOCK PRICES
5. EARNINGS CATCHUP TRADING RANGE TREND PATTERN
6. EMOTIONAL INVESTING
7. MONITORING AND LIMITING EXPOSURE IS MOST IMPORTANT
8. BUY AND SELL on the Basis of VALUATIONS
9. INVESTORS BIGGEST MISTAKE
10. BEST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
11. WORST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
12. BUY VOLATILITY
13. INVESTING TIME
14. FUND MANAGERS
15. OPTIONS
16 . INFLATION
17. INVEST AND FOREGET
AI Tech Stocks Draw down and End of Year 2022 Price Targets
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My analysis schedule includes:

UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada and China - 65% done
Stock Market Trend Forecast into the End of 2022
How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

US Dollar and British Pound analysis
Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your analyst capitalising on stock market panic selling

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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