Buoyed by tight world supply and higher demand, Light crude oil prices are expected to reach the first resistance level of $124.50 over the next few weeks. WTI prices are being driven by several factors. First, the summer driving season in the US, and second by the relaxation of China's Covid curbs (Chart 1).

On the supply side, the EIA has said that US Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped by a record 7.3 million barrels at the start of June to 519 million barrels, the lowest level since March 1987.

Five-year forecast models (Chart 2) suggest an ongoing rise in WTI prices going into Q3. With demand outstripping supply, the upward spike to the target of $133.00 is probable.

Bottom line: Light crude oil prices remain in an upward trend fueled by increasing demand and a short-term dip in supply. $124.50 is the first target followed by $133.00.

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
www.technicalspeculator.com

COPYRIGHT © 2022 Donald W. Dony
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA has been in the investment profession for over 20 years, first as a stock broker in the mid 1980's and then as the principal of D. W. Dony and Associates Inc., a financial consulting firm to present. He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator, a monthly international investment newsletter, which specializes in major world equity markets, currencies, bonds and interest rates as well as the precious metals markets.

Donald is also an instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI). He is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs and to provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada's leading brokerage firms. He is a respected specialist in the area of intermarket and cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at investment conferences.

Mr. Dony is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

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