UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion

Housing-Market / UK Housing Jul 13, 2022 - 08:43 PM GMT

My expectations are for for average UK House prices (Halifax) to continue to trend higher over the next 3 years, punctuated by a brief pause during early 2023 in response to interest rate hikes, weakening economy and tax rises. However persistent high inflation, extreme over crowding and continuing strong population growth ensures that the bull market will remain in tact. Therefore my forecast conclusion is for average UK house prices (Halifax) to target a rise from £278,123 as of February 2022 over the next 3 years to £340,632 for February 2025 data (Halifax) targeting a price increase of 22.5% over 3 three years as as illustrated by my trend forecast graph below -

Peering into the Mists of TIme

It is highly probable that the UK housing bull market will continue trending higher beyond my three year trend forecast by posting year on year gains all the way into into 2027.

Risks to the Forecasts

Sorry if you were hoping that there is a risk that house prices could fall as the risk I see is that UK house prices enter a mania phase when house price inflation exceeds 20% per annum. However, given rising rates, slowing economy, and increasing taxes then a mania during 2022 and 2023 appears to be unlikely.

US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

My analysis and trend forecast for US house prices will follow in about 1 weeks time, but briefly - My US housing market trend forecast of January 2021 based on date Upto October 2020 (US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021) concluded in the following trend forecast:

Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the US housing market bull market to further accelerate to an annualised momentum of just over 10% per annum during Mid 2021 before momentum slows to end 2021 with a gain of about 7.7% for the year, on top of again of 1% for November and December 2020. For a total house prices gain of about 9% by the end of 2021. i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 248.5 (Oct 2020 data) to 271 (Dec 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.

The updated graph shows we had a spectacular bull run courtesy of continuing Fed rampant money printing.

As for where US house prices are headed next well US house prices are RED HOT galloping ahead at near 20% per annum which is unsustainable which means momentum will significantly moderate over the coming months. so expect a sharp slowdown in US house price inflation.

US House prices 3 year trend probability was covered in my most recent analysis analysis - Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season, US House Prices 3 Year Probability Range

The whole of my extensive US housing market analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

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Whilst my recent analysis include -

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UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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