Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Will resolution of the Debt ceiling nothing burger send indices such as the S&P to the moon? Despite the fact that I have stated countless times that they are a red herring as the red hot chili pepper AI stocks rally illustrates S&P has been flat whilst AI tech stocks have gone to the moon. Nevertheless most remain obsessed by what the S&P will do, just as long as I can continue to ignore the Nasdaq! Getting ones knickers in a twist over the Nasdaq is what would sow maximum confusion when one just needs to stick with the script of gaining and maintaining exposure to the AI tech stocks as long as they remain largely grounded in reality and not go nuts as Nvidia has just done, more on Nvidia later.

In terms of my stock market trend forecast that was the focus of my recent stock market brief -

Stock market maximum confusion, are we going for 4300 or 4000? A 7 week trading range has resulted in many bull and bear busted technical signals. as every indicator has only a certain probability of coming to pass, it's just that one does not expect virtually all to be uncertain at the same time! Swings, MACD, even basic trend analysis of higher high and lows, false breaks, Rising Dollar, Falling Bonds, Central banks reducing liquidity, then there are the OPTIONS MAX PAINERS fixated on the S&P being destined to be forever stuck at 4000 lodged between CALL and PUT WALLS as per expected moves.

These are the facts -

1. We are in a BULL MARKET as of Mid October 2022 (Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1 )that will run for many years, which means the primary direction of travel over time is UPWARDS. Instead I get the impression that many tend to forget this fact, look at my portfolio, I am 88% invested.

2. The retail herd AND the funny managers are sat on the sidelines with trillions parked in money market accounts having been convinced by the cartoon network that short-term t-bills are the place to be whilst watching stocks soar are now desperate for stocks to fall so they can buy as this graph by TDA illustrates that the retail crowd all but sold out of their holdings December 2022 - https://imx.tdameritrade.com/imx/p/imx-pub/

3. Corrections are just that CORRECTIONS, it IS a fools errand to attempt to trade the downside during a bull market as the risks are to the UPSDE!

Still the fog of what happens next is THICK and technical analysis is proving useless. it will only become obvious in hindsight which is the scam of most annalists, they show you indicators of what the market did in the PAST IN HINDSIGHT! Head and shoulders garbage patterns and such like. only good in hindsight! Then we have the perma SHORTING the market fools, don't they realise that the market goes UP 85% of the time?. Instead what we need is a powerful Light house to SHINE a BEAM through the fog that is completely immune to all of the noise of not just the past 7 weeks, but 7 months! .

STOCK MARKET CHEAT SHEET -

S&P ultimately target a trend to 4500+ by Mid Summer 2023.

In terms of the current state of the trend forecast the Dow by now should be trading at 33,900 vs actual last close of 33,426 thus a deviation of -1.4% against the forecast. Whilst the S&P should be trading at 4200 vs actual of 4192 for a -0.002% deviation against trend forecast.

So forget all of the chart porn that is TA, the stock market cheat sheets are clear in that the indices are targeting their respective highs during Mid Summer 2023 i.e. S&P 4500.

What am I doing?

Trimming as the market goes, up, especially in those stocks where I am over extended, current exposure is 87.3% invested, so the rate of trimming is roughly 2% for every 100 S&P points advance, which suggests 6% by 4500 that will bring me down to about 82% invested, In fact many stocks have already achieved their Mid year target highs as per the AI tech stocks spread sheet -

This ARTICLE is an excerpt form my recent analysis on the current state of the stocks bull market as it FOMO'd to new highs Can AI Tech Stocks Mania Push the S&P Through 4300? that was was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

For Immediate first access to ahead of the curve analysis as my extensive analysis of the stock market illustrates (Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1), that continues on in the comments section of each posted article, all for just 5 bucks per month which is nothing, if you can't afford 5 bucks for month then what you doing reading this article, 5 bucks is nothing, if someone did what I am doing then I would gladly pay 5 bucks for it! Signup for 1 month for a taste of the depth of analysis that cannot be beat by those charging $100+ per month! I am too cheap! I am keeping my analysis accessible to all, those willing to learn because where investing is concerned the sooner one gets going the better as portfolios compound over time, $5 month is nothing for what you get access to so at least give it a try, read the comments, see the depth of analysis, you won't be sorry because i do do my best by my patrons, go the extra mile.

S&P

Targetting 4500 Mid Summer 2023.

And gain access to the following most recent analysis -

• Stocks Bull Market Phase One End Game Sector Rotation
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• S&P500, Gold, Silver and Crypto's Trend Forecasts 2023

So for immediate first access to to all of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your trimming the FOMO rally analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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