US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis posted in January 2023 that despite MSM hysteria strongly suggested that there would be NO recession during 2023, as there had never been a recession during a pre-election year. Whilst the highest risk is that the recession materialises during 2025, though both 2024 and 2026 are equally high recession risk years.

However as my above analysis states the recession already happened during 2022 (mid-terms)! It's madness that the econofools are ignoring that which is staring them in the face! Both the recession AND the bear market have already happened! Which lowers the probability for a recession during 2024 though that does not mean there won't be some sort of economic weakness during 2024 after all rates have rocketed higher which will depress economic activity resulting rate cuts.

So following what the table is saying, some sort of weakening in the economy during 2024 that resolves in a probable recession during 2025, which will become much clearer at the time of next years analysis.

In terms of the stock market, this suggests not to expect a repeat of 2023's 24% advance, more likely is half that advance so maybe 5300 by year end as possible.

This article is an excerpt from my in-depth analysis and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 has first been made available to patrons who support my So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Analysis that seeks to replicate the accuracy of 2023:

S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024

CONTENTS
Investing in the Stock Market is Like Boxing With Mike Tyson
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks
Synthetic Intelligence
The Roaring AI 2020's
Stock Market 2023 Trend Forecast Review
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE
Major Market lows by Calendar Month
US Exponential Budget Deficit
QE4EVER
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic
S&P Real Earnings Yield
S&P EGF EPS Growth
When WIll the Fed Pivot
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates
US Dollar Trend 2024
US Recession Already Happened in 2022!
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions
Margin Debt
Stock Market Breadth
Stock Market Investor Sentiment
Bitcoin S&P Pattern
SP Long-term Trend Analysis
Dow Annual Percent Change
Stock Market Volatility (VIX)
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Correlating Seasonal Swings
Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal
Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Primary AI Stocks
AI - Secondary Stocks
TESLA

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By Nadeem Walayat

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Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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