Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory
Companies / Nvidia Nov 05, 2024 - 05:58 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's voting day in the US election 2024 and if you don't know already my consistent view since the start of the year has been that Donald Trump will beat Kamala Harris and enter the Whitehouse for the second time as illustrated by my recent video.
However, the US President has NO REAL POWER - Over the decades the Deep State Military Industrial Complex has eroded what power the office of the President had as Eisenhower warned would happen when he left office in 1961.
Once upon a time Presidents battled to control the reach of the military industrial complex, now they are mere puppets on the payroll of the Deep State. Biden would have been the perfect puppet president as most of the time he does not even remember who he is!
Not to worry both puppets currently standing are just acting out a role for the masses and as the great Bill Hicks once said -
On his first day in office the new president is introduced to his staff, they all congratulate him then someone says “And if you can just come through here Mr President…” and they take him to a side room, sit him down and run the Zapruder film of Kennedy’s head being blown off. “Now lets talk about how things actually work round here Mr President…”
Fight the Power!
Excerpted from my latest analysis - Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season
CONTENTS
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
BItcoin Breaking Out
Bitcoin Big Picture
MSTR $272 �� ����️������������ ������
MSTR Dream For Some WIll be a Nightmare for Most!
AI Stocks Portfolio Earnings Season
30th - Microsoft $427 - EGF's +2%, +19%, Dir +1%, PE 36.2, PE Range 89% / 38%
30th - KLAC $674 - EGF's +15%, +30%, Dir +14%, PE 28, PE Range 170% / 104%
30th - GPN $101 EGF +11%, +12%, Dir +7%%, PE 9.1, PE Range -295% / -335%
31st - Arrow $134 EGF -25%, -5%, Dir +14%, PE 10, PE Range 92% / 104%
31st - AMAZON $188 - EGF's +12%, +25%, Dir -7%, PE 45 , PE Range -94% / -203%
31st - APPLE $233 - EGF's -11%, +8%, Dir 0%, PE 35 , PE Range +161% / +127%
BPMC has left the building.
The Coming AI IPO Bubble
ISRAELS NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL
The US Dollar is FINISHED MANTRA
Bonds SUCK!
The Housing Market 18 year / 18.6 Year Cycle
Which was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
.......
Nvidia Earnings vs Stock Market Correction Window
if you blink you missed the stock market bottom! Barely 3 weeks ago when there was literally panic in the air as stocks dived on the Yen Carry Trade unwinding nothing burger event that was accompanied by MSM hysteria calling for an emergency Fed rate cut of as much as a 1% as apparently the economy had fallen off the edge of the cliff into a recession, 3 weeks on and the panic is gone, S&P trading near it's bull market high and no emergency rate cut!
This illustrates the extent of the BS you are exposed to and why you should cease reading and watching any MSM financial press / fooltoobers, they will always place you on the WRONG SIDE of the market! The so called PANIC delivered mega buying opportunities across target stocks where all one needed to do was follow the buying ranges and hoover up the likes of Nvidia for as little as $92, which I did, doubling my exposure to 20% invested in this core AI mega-trend stock, such deep deviations of more than 33% don't come along often.
You are going to lose money if you listen to the mainstream financial press that tends to get regurgitated on Twatter and Fooltube that primarily focus only selling fear and panic so as to maximise eyeballs. My keep calm and carry on getting rich message does not attract anywhere near as much interest.
In terms of the stock market trend nothing much has changed the pattern remains as posted early July for being in a correction window that runs into October that will sow the seeds for a post election bull run. All one has to do is place limit orders in target stocks and then let the trends play out and see what gets triggered. We had a Wave A decline to 5090, followed by a B wave rally to 5625 and thus should be gearing up for the final leg lower which targets 5060 to 5000 for a marginally lower low than Wave A.
Fed Rate Cut Recession Noise Incoming
There is going to be a lot of noise that the Fed first rate cut is a recession signal, but even if a recession eventually materialises it won't prevent the stock market from going ballistic to the upside over the next 12 months, especially for AI tech stocks. All whilst the recession crash is coming fools will watch from the sidelines. My view has been consistent for some months to expect a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, which will likely be followed by at least one more cut before the end of 2024.
Nvidia Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush
Folk need to realise that the likes of Chat GPT are mere milestones and not the final destination. As I have said before OpenAI will probably soon become a footnote in the history books. LLM's are a toy compared to what's to come but this also means all those companies going all in on LLM's won't survive or not capitalise on their investments. This is what a bubble looks like, inflated on ever higher expectations as is happening with LLM's when they are just toys. We are probably looking at the top of the LLM's bubble that will give way to the next phase in this building AI bubble where what remains at the core of the AI mega-trend is Nvidia with it's GPU's now rebranded as a family of AI processors or which more accurately should be called compute accelerators. So it was well past the time for Nvidia to become the NEW Numero Uno, with Google nudged to 2nd place in my Quantum AI tech stocks portfolio as we watch Nvidia getting rich by selling AI shovels to ALL of the tech giants. And in this case the shovels have an expiry date as they become OBSOLETE! At the maximum for most applications the life span of the infrastructure Nvidia is selling is 5 years! So not only is the Accelerated Compute market growing, all of the hardware also needs to be refreshed every 4-5 years!
Bottom line you want to be very careful of over trimming Nvidia, it's better to suffer deep draw downs then be sat on the bench watching this gravy train speed past. A mistake most of us have made in numero Uno from time to time as the dips all too soon give way to new all time highs.
Nvidia Numero Uno!
Nvidia is the new numero uno in my AI tech stocks spreadsheet switching places with Google. What does this mean? I have upped target exposure for Nvidia by 10% and reduced Google by 10%. Why? Because Nvidia IS AI, and whilst Google's stock price has done well, it's definitely not better than Nvidia. So I will be even more eager to add to Nvidia whilst seeking to reduce Google a little to around 75% invested.
Nvidia Earnings - $128.3, EGF 42%, 69%, Dir+4%, PE Range 79%, Forward 28%
Nvidia's metrics remain STRONG pointing to another earnings beat and thus expectations are for a positive stock price reaction to earnings. However before folk start running to add more at the current price understand that today's Nvidia is not that of even a year ago, today's Nvidia has a massive market cap of $3.2 trillion, let that sink in Nvidia has x14'd it's market cap in less than 2 years! It is easier for a stock to go from say $1trillion to $3 trillion than to just x2 from $3.2 trillion to $6.4 trillion. So most of the growth in the stock price for the the next year or so is behind Nvidia, that's not to say it cannot keep trending higher by perhaps another 50% to $200, but it's already gone up by near 50% from it's recent correction low of $92 which is how the money will be made in this stock by accumulating on the corrections and then trimming on the rips and rebounds, those who buy and hold for say $200 are going to find it a rough ride because you are asking for a $3.2 trillion stock to near X2 to $6.4 trillion, which is a tough ask, much easier to expect a X2 from $2 trillion to $4 trillion i.e. from $92 then from $128. So whilst I do want to have heavy exposure to Nvidia which is clearly at the core of the AI mega-trend, however I can see it is going to be difficult for a $3.2 trillion stock to X2 to $6.4 trillion hence if any stock is ripe for deep corrections on market FEARs then that stock is Nvidia as we witnessed barely 3 weeks ago when it dived from a high of $140 down to $92, which prompted me to double my exposure from 10% to 20%. currently trimmed down to 18.3%.
Can Nvidia 14X again? Yes but not over the next 2 years, maybe over the next 14 years.
The bottom line is that Nvidia is now too big for easy growth. It WILL continue to grow earnings and coupled with multiples expansion the stock price should go higher i.e. target $200 but the easy gains are in the rear view mirror thus despite Nvidia being numero Uno I am only 18% invested where I seek to accumulate via buying the dips and distribute some of what I bought by selling the FOMO rips and thus as my exposure increases my average price paid per share goes DOWN. Which yes is hard work but that's how to play the likes of Nvidia, you want to accumulate when the stock is cheaper which gives one the potential upside to trim into all whilst seeking to increase exposure because in this stock at least the draw downs will be temporary, which is self evident not just from the metrics but also by understanding what this company actually does and likewise AMD despite crushing Intel is not in the same league as Nvidia, NO stock is in the same league as Nvidia! Even if the whole stock market crashed and burned what you will soon see is that Nvidia would rebounds to trade to a new all time high as we got a taste of during this month.
At the end of the day it's a balancing act between having exposure and over paying for a mega cap stock. The easiest thing to do would be to just invest and forget, which really does mean invest and forget, i.e. not asking why it has suddenly dropped by 40% that's not invest and forget! Personally I can't do that for stocks such as Nvidia, it's too volatile to not try and capitalise on the volatility hence you see me cycling in and out of Nvidia depending on what the stock price does whilst attempting to build a core position in the stock because regardless of what stock prices do, the AI Mega-trend is going to run for decades more to come as I explained why in this video of now 8 years ago....
Nvidia Stock Chart
As i stated in my last article posted just ahead of the flash crash, Nvidia falling below $100 would be us getting lucky and we DID get lucky as the stock chart illustrates as the price dipped below $100 down to $92 and then abruptly rebounded as smart money capitalised on the yen carry trade market panic nothing burger. We can hope for similar events but Nvidia falling below $100 would again be getting lucky given that Nvidia still trades below it's two near term highs of $135 and $140 it is possible that we could see Nvidia trade down to $100 i.e. range bound given that we remain in a corrective window into early October that is resulting in increased market volatility even in stocks such as Nvidia.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
Nvidia is in a trading range of $135 to $100 pending a breakout to a NEW ALL TIME HIGH where another short lived dip below $100 would be a case of getting lucky so I will seek to accumulate more Nvidia towards the lower end of it's trading range as we continue to trade within the general stock markets corrective window that extends into early October.
And what if Nvidia misses earnings?
That would be fantastic news! Because BAD news is what delivers the BUYING OPPs! The likes of which folk look back on and wish they had capitalised on at the time but were too scared to do so because instead of BTFD they were sat paralysed by fear. As Aug 5th illustrates, as Oct 2022 illustrates, you want to BUY FEAR!
The bottom line is I want Nvidia to be my largest holding, the hard part is getting there from here..... Nvidia is a hard stock to accumulate given that the buying opps tend to be rare and it has a tendency to keep blasting off to new all time highs which is probably what it's going to do once more after today's market close.
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FICHeQvTU1pSYalH0fS1e4VYMD6Ra0T8IwVu_LCnZNQ/edit?usp=sharing
And lastly don't forget we are in a bull market that at least has another year to run which means when stocks fall it's time to get greedy not fearful!
12th June 2020 - Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!
Therefore the following graph illustrates my road map forecast conclusion of how I expect the AI mega-trend to play out over the next 15 years and why I will continue the mantra of buy the dips and panics all the way towards liquidating holdings during the next mania peak when valuations go out the window and when I will likely heavily short these same stocks all the way down towards the buying opportunity of the 2030's.
Your buy the dips analyst.
Again for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Most Recent Analysis - Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season
CONTENTS
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
BItcoin Breaking Out
Bitcoin Big Picture
MSTR $272 �� ����️������������ ������
MSTR Dream For Some WIll be a Nightmare for Most!
AI Stocks Portfolio Earnings Season
30th - Microsoft $427 - EGF's +2%, +19%, Dir +1%, PE 36.2, PE Range 89% / 38%
30th - KLAC $674 - EGF's +15%, +30%, Dir +14%, PE 28, PE Range 170% / 104%
30th - GPN $101 EGF +11%, +12%, Dir +7%%, PE 9.1, PE Range -295% / -335%
31st - Arrow $134 EGF -25%, -5%, Dir +14%, PE 10, PE Range 92% / 104%
31st - AMAZON $188 - EGF's +12%, +25%, Dir -7%, PE 45 , PE Range -94% / -203%
31st - APPLE $233 - EGF's -11%, +8%, Dir 0%, PE 35 , PE Range +161% / +127%
BPMC has left the building.
The Coming AI IPO Bubble
ISRAELS NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL
The US Dollar is FINISHED MANTRA
Bonds SUCK!
The Housing Market 18 year / 18.6 Year Cycle
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Your buying the dips selling the rips analyst.
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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