US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024 Nov 29, 2024 - 09:22 PM GMT

So far the election year seasonal trend has had 4 misses out of 9 months, so on it's own as is the case with most individual pieces of analysis has been a coin flip as to whether any particular month will follow the seasonal pattern or not.

The miss for September has especially caught many including myself by surprise, though as I often state the S&P really is a nothing burger as ones focus should be on seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented in target AI tech stocks as and when they come along through use of limit orders hence why I tend to keep around 20% of my portfolio in cash most of which is deployed in limit orders, basing ones decisions on what one expects the S&P to do is a huge investing mistake!

Seasonally October should be a strong down month, BUT! Given what has transpired to date it is a COIN FLIP! Instead one should take the deviation from the September's closing prices as THE opportunities to accumulate rather then where the S&P or any stock ends October, for instance August was UP, but it gave a huge early month opportunity similar for September, so despite the months ending up strongly both gave intra month opps to accumulate just as I expect October will also regardless of where the S&P ends the month.

This article is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis that was first made available to patrons who support my work - Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally

CONTENTS

Presidential Election Year Seasonal Trend
What Does a Strong September Mean for the Stock Market?
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market
2025 Mid Decade Year
The Risks are to the Upside!
Presidential Cycle - Best time to buy stocks
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
LRCX Stock Split
META $596
Nvidia 5X to 30X
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER?
Never Buy an IPO
STOP LOSSES
CHINA Stocks Short Squeeze
Bubble Drivers
Fourth Reich Carving out an Empire Out of the Corpse of the US Empire
Why the US Empire Would Lose In a War Against Iran
Bitcoin Counting Down To Pump to New All Time Highs!
MSTR No Brainer
CRYPTO EXIT STRATEGY REVISITED
STOCKS BEAR MARKET STRATEGIES
CAPTALISNG ON THE NEXT BEAR MARKET

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Most Recent Analysis - Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump

CONTENTS
America's Angry Grandpa President
Trump War on Immigration WAR!
Trump Tariff Economic War
DONALD DEBT PUMP!
Trump Stock Market Road Map 2025
Why Apple Stock Refuses to Drop!
Nvidia Stock on a Stairway to Heaven Counting Down to Earnings
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
Current Stocks Portfolio Buying Opps
Crypto FOMO Mania
Bitcoin Seasonal Trend
BItcoin Bull Market Target
Bitcoin Mind Game $98k to $104k Topping Zone
Bitcoin Bull Market Targets Redux
ALT COINS SEASON
SOLANA Bull Market Targets
Bitcoin & Crypto Corrections
MSTR Rocket Will Eventually Get Sucked Into the Crypto Black Hole
Exit Strategy - Leaving the Crypto Casino with Your Profits
The CURE for Diabetes!

Recent analysis includes -

Bitcoin Break Out, MSTR Rocket to the Moon! AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season

Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump!

Stock Market October Correction Window Into Post US Election Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally

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Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide 2023

Learn to Use the FORCE! How to Really Get Rich Part 2 of 3

The Investing Assets Spectrum - How to Really Get RICH

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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