Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 2nd January 2009
Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 02, 2009 - 07:56 AM GMTBy: INO
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. From a broader perspective, March continues to extend last month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1254.00 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1254.00 are needed to renew the rally off November's low.
If March renews Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1135.00 is the next downside target. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 6.25 pts. at 1218.75 as of 5:52 AM CST. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1224.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1248.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1156.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1135.00. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 918.50 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 918.50 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. If December renews last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 828.60 is the next downside target.
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 908.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 918.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 880.10. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 853.00. The March S&P 500 Index was up 4.80 pts. at 904.70 as of 5:54 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of Wednesday's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 141-28. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 137-32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-24.
ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally and is trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.27. However, stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends Wednesday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 52.95 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 36.94 would temper the near-term gains. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 45.54. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 52.95. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 36.94. Second support is December's low crossing at 35.13.
February heating oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the January 2005 low crossing at 116.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 145.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 162.98. First support is December's low crossing at 121.36. Second support is the January 2005 low crossing at 116.80.
February unleaded gas was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 121.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews 2008's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 73.73 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 108.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.66. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 82.60.
February Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 5.245 then psychological support crossing at 5.000 are February's next downside targets. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 6.180 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.704. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.180. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.477. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.245.
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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was slightly higher in quiet overnight trading as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.03. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this winter's decline, the 75% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 76.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 82.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.11. First support is December's low crossing at 78.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 76.56.
The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 139.932. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.346 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 75% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at 148.780 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139.932. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 146.870. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 138.170. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.344.
The March British Pound was lower overnight and is trading below broken support crossing at 1.4500. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4004 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4830 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4830. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.5700. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.4329. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.4004.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8936 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, the 87% retracement level of the March-November decline crossing at .9701 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at .9662. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at .9701. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9320. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8936.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates above support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.27. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the May- December decline crossing at 86.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.55. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 86.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.27. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 80.85.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to profit taking and is trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11029. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a short- term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11029 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .11085 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11029. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11085. First support is Monday's low crossing at .10958. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the August-December rally crossing at .10912.
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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-
term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 833.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends this winter's rally, October's high crossing at 938.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 892.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.80. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 860.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 833.30.
March silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.815. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews last month's rally, the 25% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at 11.700 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.527 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 11.425. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 11.615. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.816. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.527.
March copper was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.36. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 154.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.97 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 142.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.99. Second support is December's low crossing at 125.50.
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above moving average resistance due to year-end position squaring. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 11.400 are needed to renew this month's rally. If March renews Monday's decline, this month's low crossing at 10.215 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above this summer's downtrend line. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the September 29th gap crossing at 27.20 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.07 are needed to renew this month's rally. If March renews last week's decline, November's low crossing at 10.51 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed higher on Tuesday and above resistance marked by November's high crossing at 48.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's breakout above resistance crossing at 48.00 opens the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 51.30 later this winter. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.14 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis
The Grain markets will begin trading at 9:30 AM CST. Here is a recap of Wednesday's trading.
March Corn closed up 10 3/4-cents at 4.07.
March corn closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.71 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 4.33 1/2 then November's high crossing at 4.38 1/2 are the next upside targets. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.21. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 4.33. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.71 1/2.
March wheat closed up 6-cents at 6.10 3/4.
March wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally and closed above November's high crossing at 6.07. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the October 6th gap crossing at 6.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.44 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 1/4-cents at 6.30.
Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.65 3/4 would temper the friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this month's rally, the October 6th gap crossing at 6.91 is the next upside target.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 3/4-cents at 6.54 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Wednesday; however, the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.10 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.74, which coincides with the 25% retracement level of the June-December decline crossing at 6.77 are the next upside targets.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans closed up 27-cents at 9.80.
January soybeans closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.75 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 9.89, then the 25% retracement level of the July- December decline crossing at 9.97 3/4 are needed the next upside targets.
March soybean meal closed up $2.50 at $299.80.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.30 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 311.10 is the next upside target.
March soybean oil closed up 118 pts. at 33.60.
March soybean oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended this week's rally. Spillover buying from the rally in the energy complex lifted soybean oil higher today. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 33.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.33 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed up $1.15 at $60.87.
February hogs posted a key reversal up on Wednesday filling last Friday's gap crossing at 60.60 and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.84. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 56.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 60.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.08. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 58.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at 56.85.
February bellies closed up $2.15 at $87.37.
February bellies posted a key reversal up due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 91.80 are needed to needed to renew the late-December rally.
February cattle closed up $0.15 at 86.05.
February cattle closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.51. The high-range close sets the stage for additional short covering gains in early trading on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews this month's rally, November's high crossing at 95.60 is the next upside target.
March feeder cattle closed down $0.97 at $93.67.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday however, the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, November's high crossing at 101.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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