Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Interview With the Kress Stock Market Cycle Master, Part2

Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis Jan 27, 2009 - 10:33 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have long been an admirer of the stock market cycle analysis of one Samuel J. “Bud” Kress, proprietor of SJK Capital and publisher of the cycle-based SineScope advisory. During my 10 year acquaintance with Mr. Kress, I’ve been privileged to learn of his discovery of a remarkable series of weekly and yearly cycles. These cycles (Kress Cycles as I’ve taken to calling them) have an amazing correlation to each other and are based on the Fibonacci sequence. More importantly, they have accurately identified the major turning points in the financial markets and the economy over the last several years. The Kress Cycles are predicting a major period of change ahead for the U.S. stock market and economy, particularly between the years 2010-2014.


Using his cycle system, Mr. Kress correctly identified the 1999/2000 stock market top and also the 2002/2003 end to the bear market. More recently, Kress identified the stock market top in 2007 and is looking for the start of a new cyclical bull market to begin soon. Kress recently published a “Special Edition” to his SineScope publication, the sixth one of the past 10 years, with a seventh Special Edition to be published later this year. Each previous Special Edition has been eye-opening in its predictions for equities and thus far has proven to be accurate in its predictions.

Following our previous interview in August, Kress was kind enough grant me another interview concerning his cycle work and investment/economic outlook for the U.S. in the foreseeable future. He also shared his longer-term outlook for gold and commodities.

Q: In the previous interview we talked about the latest Special Edition entitled “The Grand Bull’s Terminal Years: 2009-2011.” In it you mentioned that America was under liquidation and in serious trouble. Most compelling is the long-term (yearly) cycles warning of a once-in-a-lifetime tsunami during the three year period between 2012-2014. In terms of equity market participation, you mentioned that the traditional “buy and hold” mindset of the long-term fundamental investor has become obsolete and that the “old generals” must change to an intermediate-term orientation (intra-year) to achieve returns on capital. Has your position changed to any significant degree since our last interview?

Kress: Not at all, but it’s becoming more confirmed. Let’s backtrack momentarily to the first Special Edition published about 10 years ago. It discussed the 1999/2000 top of a super bull market high, the high for the post World War II economic expansion. Accordingly, I’ve referred to this top as the terminal high not to be potentially exceeded for several decades. It discussed a bear market to last until after 2002. Last year’s Special Edition displayed the long term cycles and how they portend a once-in-a-lifetime severe market decline, implying underlying economic devastation from 2012-2014. It discussed that the classic boom-bust credit cycle had peaked and was now in its declining phase with deflation and depression to follow. The current recession could be only the proverbial shot across the bow. Recent unprecedented volatility is the natural reflection of the underlying economic instability. The next three years, 2009-2011, should prove to be a wide trading range prior to the subsequent potential tsunami to begin in 2012.

Q: I understand you plan to publish Special Edition VII in the next few months to be entitled, “Final Opportunities: 2009.” Can you provide a preliminary summary?

Kress: It will review the predictions of Special Edition VI, where we are currently, and will provide an individual index corroborating the severity of the deterioration from 2012-2014. It will also suggest the most probable time frame for the intra year high and low for each year of the 2009-2011 trading range, with lower highs being made in the S&P until 2012. The title of the Special Edition refers to the 2009 high as the final opportunity to position portfolios for the ensuing tsunami.

Q: In addition to the yearly cycles for the long-term investor, you also track the weekly cycles for the interim oriented participant. Please elaborate.

Kress: In recent years, numerous funds and ETFs have become available for both bull and bear markets thereby affording traders the ability to continuously achieve gains regardless of the market’s direction, advancing or declining. The interim reversals provide the potential to employ these innovative vehicles. My weekly cycles identify these intra year reversals. Except for unique, smaller companies which have extraordinary potential, there is no need to purchase major companies, for cumulative interim returns can significantly exceed the longer term gains of major companies. The old general who continues to fight the old war experienced a 0% return of principal for the last eleven years. When adjusted for the decline in the value of the dollar, such an old general is left with a present value of $0.70 per dollar invested.

Q: Let’s focus on commodities for a minute. You refer to Kondratieff’s discovery of a long-wave in commodity prices as a “K wave” instead of a cycle. Does your 60-year cycle have any relation to the Kondratieff wave?

Kress: Of course it does. The K-wave can be anywhere from 40-80 years, averaging 60 years. The 60-year cycle correlates to the average K-wave. There’s an economic significance to the 60-year cycle. Of any cycle, the last 25% is the down phase. In terms of the 60-year cycle, that’s 15 years. Fifteen years from 2014 is 1999 when we hit the terminal high. The 60-year cycle has four seasons, like the K-wave: spring, summer, fall and winter. We are now past midway of winter of the 60-year cycle, indicating that deflation began last year and should continue through 2011 and then to begin the three hard down years of depression from 2012-2014.

Q: Based on your knowledge of market history and the cycles can you make some general comments about the long-term future of the gold price?

Kress: I don’t track gold on a year to year basis. But there are two thoughts and one must be kept in mind. In a lifetime there are two major periods to buy gold. The first is in the face of hyperinflation because it’s the ultimate hedge. In hyper inflation began in the late 1960s until 1981 for about 15 years gold went from $35 to around $800 an ounce. The second period to buy gold is in the face of economic collapse, etc., because it’s the ultimate storehouse of value. After peaking in 1980 when hyperinflation ended and disinflation began, gold bottomed in 1999 at about $250/ounce at the beginning of economic winter. It has been going up since then. In the future years it should begin to accelerate when economic collapse comes to bear. Any portion of the similar increase from ’66 to ’81 bodes for astronomic prices in gold from here. In the more recent decades the “buy and hold” mentality of the long-term fundamental investor was proven gainful with conventional equities. But at the revolutionary changes at the turn of the century this has gone the way of the buggy whip. Consequently, to replace that gold will be the contemporary equivalent and one should retain long-term positions in gold and add to positions on interim corrections. Due to all the innovative vehicles available in recent years without having to buy the bullion, one can participate with gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Q: In reference to the tough times ahead that your long-term cycles predict, what U.S. states do you think will emerge relatively unscathed by the economic turmoil in the years to come?

Kress: I think the agrarian states with minimal industrial composition economies will be the best relative performers. States like Iowa, South Dakota and Wyoming which have virtually no industrial base but are primarily involved in the production of essential food commodities should escape the turmoil. When have you ever heard of the agricultural states ever having major financial problems? No, it’s always the Rust Belt states of the east or the go-go states like Florida, California and Nevada that have the problems. Owing to the stability of agriculture, the western agrarian states should be relatively stable [during the “hard down” phase of the 60-year cycle which is the equivalent to the average K-wave].

Q: Getting back to the stock market, you’re looking for a final cyclical bull market before the last of your long-term cycles peaks next year, correct? What is the significance of 2009 in the cyclical scheme of things? Could the coming cyclical bull market be of the “blow off” variety?

Kress: It’s a recovery rally bear market in the economic winter scheme of things and the 2009 high will be significantly lower than the 1999 high. This will be discussed in detail in Special Edition 7 to be forthcoming in the next several months. A maximum upside target of 1,200-1,250 in the S&P 500 is not to be exceeded. I refer to the 1999-2000 high as the terminal high not to be equaled for several decades. The 2009 high will be the recovery high not to be exceeded for a decade or so. While referring to this as a recovery cyclical mini bull market it might also be referred to as an interim advance in an ongoing long-term bear market. Such occurrences can be powerful but equally deceptive.

Q: In a battle between the combined forces of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and other financial institutions and your major long-term cycles, who wins the battle?

Kress: Big Brother keeps getting better but Mother Nature and Father Time will prevail. What the Fed is doing is an instantaneous response equal to the 1930s, which took several years to respond. It’s the ultimate band-aid and buys us some time before Mother Nature and Father Time take over.

Q: I understand you also track the weekly cycles for those participants desiring intra-year value added. From July-October you published several letters. In May you said worst of bear market is yet to come and on Nov. 21 you published that the bear market low had most likely been achieved. On Friday, Jan. 16, you published a letter that the recovery bull market has probably begun, confirming that to be the case on Jan. 23. Are these letters available for public consideration?

Kress: Yes but under the condition that these are experienced interim market participants. A request should be in writing to: Samuel J. Kress, SineScope, 15 Phoenix Ave., Morristown, NJ 07960.

By Clif Droke
www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in