Friday, December 20, 2024
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 20th Dec 2024
Crypto's are dumping, Bitcoin $94k, Solana $180, Doge $0.28, AVAX $34, COIN $260 can be very enticing to buy the dip for the next FOMO rally but I have always considered crypto's to be fairy dust, easy come easy go, so this is a warning that the TOP for crypto's could be in, so as I've been saying in the comments I would be very wary of buying the dip as the plan since the Trump pump began has been to disinvest from crypto's. Those who have followed should by now should have banked profits, I mean my exit strategy in recent articles could not have made things any clearer of what I am doing.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? / Companies / Nvidia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
MSM Cerebras IPO hype has already started!
HEADLINES -
- Cerebras, an Nvidia Challenger, Files for IPO Confidentially
- Forget Nvidia: Billionaires Are Selling It and Buying This Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Rival Hand Over Fist Instead
- Forget Intel and AMD - Nvidia's next big competitor might be a company you've never heard of
This is how the IPO game is played, pump the media with fake stories of how good Cerebus is and that it could take Nvidia's place to get fools to FOMO into a piece of garbage IPO.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X / Companies / Nvidia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a reminder of why folk should not make the mistake of having little exposure to Nvidia, the more exposure the better - next gen accelerator (Black well) is 5x current gen H100 and depending on application and config delivers upto a 30X boost in performance, the AI bubble is nowhere near it's peak, take current deviation from the high as an opp you will regret missing, reminds me of buying bitcorn during Q4 2023, we all wanted it to dip but I nibbled a bit every other day to build up exposure, that's what folk should be doing with Nvidia.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
LRCX Stock Split / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Investors in Lam Research the 11th stock on my AI list get 10 new crispy shares for every one held, the normal pattern for most stocks is to rise into a split and fall afterwards as a sell the news event. Lam Research did bottom out $720 on 10th September and since rose to a recent high of $860 so a 20% rally, though in reality the stock has not done anything other than follow the script for the correction window that runs from Mid July to at least Mid October following it's FOMO run to $1120.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far we are not getting the dip in the S&P, to the contrary as mentioned earlier the S&P traded to a new all time high which lowers the probability for an October dip getting down to anywhere the target of 5200, instead the S&P correcting down to 5500 looks doable from where we currently stand. Note the operative word "correction". Octobers tend to be one of the most volatile months of the year as does August and we saw what happened during August. a huge spike down that reversed to see the month close up, none of which will be visible in the monthly seasonal data. So whilst it might not seem like it right now with the S&P trading at 5740 as I write, October volatility is likely to see the S&P trade down by about 5% targeting a spike to below 5500 during the next few weeks which given the timing of will likely result in a DOWN OCTOBER, following which we will be set for that rip the face off the bears rally to well over 6000 during January 2025 as per trend forecast.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Submissions
Silver is stepping back into the spotlight, glinting with the promise of rising prices, surging demand, and shifting market dynamics. Building on insights from my previous article, “Silver Worth $150-$170? Facts to Make the Case for a Major Price Surge,” it’s clear the metal isn’t just playing second fiddle to gold, it’s tuning up for its own symphony.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
How many hours of work would it take to purchase one ounce of gold? Now you’ll know.
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Monday, December 16, 2024
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 16th Dec 2024
Tesla $460 - I sold a big chunk today now down to 11% invested, 2.7% of portfolio, Fomo mania in msm and twit land, I"ll probably have sold 80% by 500! I remember when I bought huge at $166 those who followed were soon crying because it continued to fall to a low of $139, that's the thing, one does not want to try and buy THE low because you won't! At THE low you'll think THE low is much lower. Now folk wish they could turn back time and buy at $166 just as I said they will wish they could in the not too distant future. How to time travel will be a topic in my next article ��
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just so that we are all reading from the same page - A Correction is a Correction is a Correction, 5500 vs 5750 is not even 5%! Primary focus is to remain exposed to the AI mega-trend stocks and seek opps to accumulate as they come along, look at what happened to Chinese AI tech stocks!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Statistically 2025 is expected to be the stronger of 2022,2023 and 2024, which again is supportive of the thesis that 2025 will see a gain of between 20% and 30% and probably nearer to 30%, i.e. a rip the face of the bears rally where those sat on the sidelines throw caution to the wind and FOMO in propelling the S&P well beyond 7000 towards 8000
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Sheffield city clowncil had a whole year to prepare for the big city centre event of 2024, Christmas markets, one would have thought that the clowncil would pull out the stops to deliver as good a market event as they did for 2023, instead when visiting the Sheffield Christmas market we were met with a bloody building site! Fargate is a ruin! What they did to Castle Market they have now done to Fargate! This stupid useless city clowncil!
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Sunday, December 15, 2024
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Copper, silver, and gold quite often move together, especially during the big moves.
Impending Massive Slide
And this is currently very helpful.
Given gold’s recent decline and a much bigger decline in silver and mining stocks, one might wonder whether miners’ and silver’s weakness are telling the truth about the precious metals market’s outlook, or if it’s gold that’s been holding up relatively well.
Friday, December 13, 2024
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market performance based on whether the President is Democrat or Republican.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A strong September during a strong year that has only seen 1 down month (April), so what does this rare pattern suggest could come next?
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Friday, December 13, 2024
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
September is seasonally the weakest month of the year, and has been so for 3 years in a row until September 2024 resulting in the unexpected up closing month, though there are too factors that should be obvious -
1. Three years down in a row increases the probability for an UP September, a little more attention to detail should have flagged this as being probable.
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
According to CNBC on November 11, "Trump Is the Most Pro-Stock Market President in History." "The stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration," says the author of Stocks for the Long Run.
This belief is producing some spectacular risk-on biases. Here's a November 22 headline from Bloomberg that highlights investors' willingness to embrace his supposed influence on the futures markets: "Trump Set to Supercharge Options Boom by Retail Investors."
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Donald_W_Dony
December's Federal Reserve meeting next week suggests a 25bps rate reduction. Traders are consolidating bets on a 90% chance of a cut by year-end. Still, there are concerns that price expansion will be sticky to lower. Core inflation remains unchanged at 3.30%. In addition, upside tariff threats and tax cuts magnified inflation risks. Both policies result in expansionary pressures.
The bond market and the US dollar illustrate the balancing act of persistent inflationary pressure and keeping interest rates low to support the economy (Chart 1).
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Friday, December 13, 2024
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Kelsey_Williams
FED BALANCE SHEET
Below is a chart posted and updated regularly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis…
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
S&P is up 27.5% YTD! This after a 24% gain for 2023, this is NOT NORMAL, we are in early stage FOMO MANIA! Further evidence for which one only need look at crypto's as BTC up 130% YTD broke above $100k trading to $104k before the exchanges FLASH CRASHED leveraged longs out of their positions and now trading back over $100k.
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Sunday, December 08, 2024
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In my yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert, I wrote that we had some clues regarding the end of the corrective upswing.
Corrective Upswing Nearing Its End
We saw an invalidation in the GDXJ (of the tiny move to new short-term highs), and before that silver outperformed on a short-term basis, which was also a bearish indication. Today, we got some more.
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