Category: US Dollar
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, August 23, 2024
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Dollar dominance is slowly ebbing as the world looks to diversify away from the greenback.
The share of dollars making up global reserves has dropped by 14 percent since the turn of the century, according to data compiled by the Atlantic Council.
As of 2002, dollars accounted for 72 percent of global reserves. Today, dollars make up about 58 percent of reserves.
This doesn’t mean the dollar is about to collapse, but it does reveal a slow drift away from dollar dominance as other countries seek to minimize their dependence on the greenback and cut the monetary strings the United States often pulls on to advance its foreign policy goals.
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Is the Biden Administration Trying To Destroy the Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Confidence in Western financial markets has already been shaken enough by the 20% devaluation of the dollar over the last few years. But now the European Commission wants to hand Ukraine $300 billion seized from Russia. Doing so likely would sound the death knell for the dollar and eventually the euro.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who has worked for literally decades to undermine the strength of the dollar, recently urged world leaders to take this disastrous step of outright theft.
Saturday, March 09, 2024
US Dollar Trend 2024 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Generally when the dollar falls US stocks go up, and when the dollar rises US stocks would tend to exhibit a weaker trend, so a rising dollar does not necessary mean that stocks will fall, rather that it is the rate of change, how volatile the dollar is that can send ripples of uncertainty in the market, so the dollar trading sharply lower would be bearish for stocks -
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 14, 2023
US dollar Index (DXY) Hanging Tough / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
NFTRH subscribers and I have been keeping well aware of the implications of a) USD following its daily chart downtrend, or b) painting the July plunge as a bear trap and going bullish again. We’ll leave the detailed implications aside in this post and simply note that the process is still evolving.
From this NFTRH+ video update (now public), that projected the up move on July 19:
Read full article... Read full article...USD can break through it [clear resistance at the time, now support] and test the SMA 50 and still remain in a downtrend.
Saturday, April 01, 2023
America on Verge of Losing Petrodollar Privilege / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
As gold prices continue to hold firm near the $2,000 level, bulls are eying big developments ahead for the monetary metal along with the global monetary system.
Gold’s potential ascendancy to new record highs is coinciding with a decline in the global status of the U.S. dollar as world’s reserve currency.
China is pushing for its currency, the yuan, to be the primary competitor to the dollar in international trade. It has forged new partnerships with Russia and other countries who are willing to deal directly in Chinese yuan.
Friday, November 04, 2022
US Dollar Big Picture / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ultimately the fate of the dollar bull market is to spike in a blow off top and then collapse in spectacular style, probably at a faster pace then it is currently going higher.
Now don't take this chart as a literal trend forecast as I don't have the time to undertake such a study right now but it is a rough picture of what I have in mind of how the dollar trend could play out. There will be plenty of time to define a forecast trend pattern over the coming years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 19, 2022
How Much Longer Can the US Dollar Trade Last? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Mills
This year has seen a correction in the gold price, commensurate with rising interest rates, and the spectre of more to come. The precious metal has also been hammered by a strong US dollar, which is negatively correlated to the gold price.
Spot gold has fallen from about $1,800 an ounce at the start of the year, to $1,675 currently, a drop of 7.4%. On Thursday, Sept. 15, gold plunged to its lower level since April, 2020, on expectations of a 0.75% interest rate increase next week by the Federal Reserve.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 09, 2022
A Strengthening US Dollar Is A Double-Edged Sword / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Dollar continues to attract capital from investors all over the world. But could this be a double-edged sword for US stocks? As capital flocks to the USD, this in turn hurts US multinationals as they need to convert their weak foreign currency profits back into USD.
The USD safe-haven trade may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in US stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will shrink or disappear.
US Multinational $1 Billion Revenue Example:
- $1 billion in revenue-generating a 15% net profit with a net neutral 0% currency translation equals a $150 million profit.
- $1 billion in revenue-generating a 15% net profit with a negative -15% unfavorable currency translation expense equals a $0 profit!
In addition, the impact of inflation on the global consumer will lead to a pullback in consumer spending which will further reduce corporate revenues and profits. The combination of the global currency dislocation along with the economic cool off will bring on a global recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 10, 2022
Not About Gold – All About The US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Kelsey_Williams
IT’S NOT ABOUT GOLD
There is a lot of talk centering on the US dollar and its “ultimate end as the world’s reserve currency”.
There is also additional talk about what this means with respect to the price of gold, but that is just talk.
The price of gold tells us nothing about gold. The only thing a continually rising gold price tells us is that the US dollar continues to lose purchasing power. (see What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar)
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 07, 2022
U.S. Dollar (USD) Is On Our Radar! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since the USD plays such a strong role in global economics, we thought it appropriate to see how the USD performance is vs. other currencies and investments.
For the U.S. consumer, a strong USD means U.S. goods are more expensive in foreign markets. For U.S. companies that buy or sell products/services globally, a strong USD means they are less competitive. A strong dollar is a significant headwind that erodes the profits of U.S. multinationals.
Since we trade and invest in ETFs, it is especially interesting to see how the USD has been trading in 2022 compared to Gold (GLD), the S&P 500 (SPY), and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Gold is the top performer, followed by the Australian dollar (AUD) and the U.S. dollar (DXY). We can also see on the following chart the recent recovery rally in both the SPY and QQQ. Amazingly the QQQ has recovered half of its 2022 loss in just the last few weeks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 09, 2022
Are We Nearing the Final Days of the US Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
The dishonest fiat Federal Reserve Note “dollar” is slowly dying and will eventually need to be replaced with something more trustworthy.Perhaps it will be presented to Americans as a series of dramatic monetary reforms. Maybe people will be using something else entirely as money.
Either way, the destruction of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency promises to be a defining moment in the nation’s history and this moment may be growing nigh.
Should historians write a timeline of the dollar’s decline and fall, certain events must be included.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 14, 2022
Conflict with China and Russia Could Accelerate De-Dollarization / Politics / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Geopolitical tensions are casting a pall over the Olympics in China amid rising fears of war with Russia. As nations prepare for conflict, investors should brace for potential fallout in asset markets.
Both China and Russia play hugely important roles in the global economy. Both face economic sanctions from the United States. And both are eyeing long-term strategies for shifting the locus of global trade away from the Federal Reserve Note “dollar.”
The Biden administration announced a partial diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 07, 2022
Why the Federal Reserve Note’s Decline Is FAR Worse Than Reported / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Americans are waking up to some uncomfortable truths. One of these is the fact that government bureaucrats and the corporate media regularly lie about what is going on in the world.
They tell us the Federal Reserve Note “dollar” is strong and price inflation is completely under control. (We use quote marks because a true dollar is 24.057 grams of silver, whereas the Federal Reserve Note is a form of counterfeit.)
Millions of Americans now notice rapid price inflation and a good portion of them are pouring into physical bullion.
To illustrate just how much nonsense is baked into official inflation data, we are presenting three charts...
Sunday, January 16, 2022
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
“It’s my party and I’ll fall if I want to”, sang gold and kept its word. Although the dollar weakened, gold seemed reluctant to take advantage of it.
Now that was a big decline in the USD Index! What made gold yawn and why is it declining today? Because it doesn’t want to rally.
I’ve been writing this over and over again, and yet I’ll write it once more. Markets don’t move in a straight line up or down, and periodic corrections are natural. However, the way markets interact during those corrections tells us a lot about what’s likely to take place next, at least in the case of some markets.
Wednesday, December 08, 2021
US Dollar Still Has the Green Light / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The dollar looks poised for another rally, to gold’s dismay. So, what’s the price target for the greenback over the winter months?
While the consensus across the financial markets (especially at the beginning of the year) was that the U.S. dollar was destined for devaluation, I warned that the greenback would rise from the ashes. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, the latter’s ascent helped make the precious metals one of the worst-performing asset classes in 2021.
Moreover, after more dollar doubters emerged in October – and the precious metals rallied hard – the USD Index eventually cut through 94, 95, and then 96 like a knife through butter. And with the precious metals reversing sharply once again, I expect another rally to push the USD Index to ~98 over the medium term. Perhaps quite soon. And the implications for the precious metals sector, are bearish.
Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the dollar is on a tear, precious metal stocks have gotten away with it lately. But how long will their resistance last?
The USD Index (USDX)
After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote:
Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX).
Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated.
What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level.
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
USD Index: Are New Milestones in the Cards? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the greenback's failed breakout on Nov. 4th may seem bearish, it faced a similar situation in August and October, only to recover and achieve new highs.
After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote:
Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX).
Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated.
What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level.
Wednesday, September 22, 2021
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The declining medium-term outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks will eat away at the honey pot of US dollar bears. Get ready for bee stings.
With headline after headline attempting to knock the USD Index off of its lofty perch, I warned on Sep. 13 that dollar bears will likely run out of honey sooner rather than later.
I wrote:
While the USD Index was under fundamental fire in recent weeks, buyers eagerly hit the bid near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. And after positive sentiment lifted the greenback back above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern last week, the USDX’s medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish.
More importantly, though, after the USD Index rallied by 0.63% last week and further validated its bullish breakout, gold, silver, and mining stocks ran in the opposite direction. And with the divergence likely to accelerate over the medium term, the swarm should sting the precious metals during the autumn months.
Tuesday, September 07, 2021
Dovish Assassins of the USD Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
“I’ve got you in my sights” – the USDX heard that a lot over the last two weeks. While it was bullish for gold, the dollar might take revenge soon.
With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doubling down on his dovish dialogue on Aug. 27 and the Delta variant depressing U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Sep. 3, the stars aligned for a profound decline in the USD Index. However, while the greenback came under fire from all angles, the USD Index demonstrated immense resiliency in the face of adversity. Moreover, the bullish determination helped reinforce our expectation for another move higher over the medium term.
To explain, the USD Index suffered a breakdown below the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern on Sep. 3 (following the release of the payrolls). However, once cooler heads prevailed, the dollar basket recouped the key level during futures trading on Sep. 5/6/7. As a result, U.S. dollar sentiment still remains quite elevated, and at the moment of writing these words, the USD Index is trading back (not much but still) above the neck level of the pattern (dashed, thick line) that’s based on the closing prices.
Thursday, August 19, 2021
Will the U.S. Currency Regime Fall? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Afghanistan has fallen. The U.S. government’s nearly two-decade-long, multi-trillion-dollar “nation building” effort in the troubled, tribal country may now have nothing to show for itself.
“President Joe Biden and other top U.S. officials have been stunned by the pace of the Taliban’s nearly complete takeover of Afghanistan,” reports the Associated Press.
Unsurprisingly, they didn’t see it coming. Central planners almost never do.
They imagine their carefully constructed expert models backed by reams of data points and implemented with overwhelmingly superior resources will ensure victory. But to paraphrase the late former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, there are “unknown unknowns” that make forecasting future events impossible.
Thursday, July 29, 2021
USDX: More Sideways Trading Ahead? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The USDX reportedly invalidated its bullish H&S pattern yesterday, but did it actually do so? The line based on daily closing prices says otherwise.
Yesterday’s (Jul. 27) supposedly big news was the breakdown below the neck level of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the USD Index. Invalidations of breakouts are bearish, and what’s bearish for the USDX is usually bullish for gold, silver, and mining stocks. So, what happened? And what didn’t happen?
Thursday, July 15, 2021
Will the U.S. Dollar Lose Momentum In the Second Half of 2021? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
As the world’s most traded currency, the US dollar has significant impacts on global trade. With interest rates at record lows and an uncertain macro-environment, it has risen at a stellar pace against major currencies in the last decade.
The US dollar is also the world’s most widely held currency, with an estimated $2 trillion in circulation. The strength of the greenback depends on a variety of factors, including economic and geopolitical stability, interest rates, inflation, and political influence.
It is important for investors and people who have exposure to the USD to understand how the dollar’s value could impact their wealth and future plans.
Friday, July 09, 2021
EURUSD Drops Below 1.20 As Dollar Shorts Are Trimmed / / US Dollar
By: S_N_Chatterjee
Activity is back in full swing in the forex market after the latest FED meeting, which has stirred all major currency pairs, including the EURUSD. Even though the pair has been trading up since the beginning of April, the order flow shifted towards the bearish side as interest rates are expected to rise as soon as 2022 in the US, due to a faster economic recovery and robust inflation figures.
A weakening US Dollar for the entire 2020 had been a supportive factor for the global economy, at a time when the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic had started. However, experts at Axia Investments believe that reverse in Dollar weakness will have the opposite effect, acting as a tightening.
Wednesday, June 30, 2021
Will ‘Infrastructure’ Spending Collapse the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Recent collapses of bridges and a Florida condo building highlight what can go wrong when basic structural and foundational elements are neglected and allowed to deteriorate.
As corrosion and cracking spread, they may go little noticed at first, with repairs and upgrades put off. Meanwhile, the risks steadily build of a single point of failure leading to catastrophic consequences.
America’s deteriorating infrastructure is badly in need of fixing. On that issue, there is wide bipartisan agreement.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The precious metals seem to be ready for vacation deep dives, but all signs indicate that the USDX will stay on the side of the pool, perfectly dry.
The USD Index (USDX)
With the USD Index washing away its sins in recent weeks, the greenback has recorded five daily rallies of more than 0.40% since May 26. And with the up days growing stronger and the down days growing weaker, the change in the trend will be clear to more and more traders, which eventually would likely cause a shift in the sentiment. Case in point: while gold, silver and mining stocks are looking forward to their summer vacations (deep dives seem to be in the vacation plans, especially given today’s pre-market ~$20 decline in gold) , the USD Index has been hard at work rehabbing its reputation. And with the U.S. dollar easily the cleanest shirt among the currency basket of dirty laundry, the smell of fresh linen has begun to pique investors’ interest.
Monday, May 24, 2021
US Dollar Breaks Below 90 – Continue To Confirm Depreciation Cycle Phase / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you’ve been following my recent research posts, you already know my research team and I are expecting some very big volatility and trends in the US and global markets over the next 12 to 48 months.
The US Dollar Index fell below a critical support level above 90 recently. This move lower after attempting to bottom in early 2021 suggests our broad Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research is continuing to play out. This means we should start to prepare for bigger trends, more volatility, and the potential for broad market price rotation over the next few years. You can read about our Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research entitled Long Term Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals and Metals Rally Early In 2021.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 22, 2021
DXY Weakness: Are You in A Crowded Commodities Trade? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Have you been long commodities like agriculture or oil? The US Dollar has continued to weaken, but is this trade getting a little long in the tooth?
Happy Hump Day, folks. Here are some quick facts: The US dollar has been in a steep downtrend since late March. The most recent CPI print in the US was a monster. The Fed has continued with the “lower for longer” theme. The Biden administration is looking to spend trillions upon trillions with no clear path for repayment, and it doesn’t seem to matter. Has the short dollar/long commodities trade gotten “too easy"?
The answer is yes, or at least most likely. Some steam will have to come out at some point. I’m not setting off any immediate alarm bells here and don't care to theorize on whether inflation is indeed transitory, as the Fed states. However, when a trade theme has that much going for it, for so long, in leveraged markets, it usually ends suddenly or at least experiences a snapback. Just some food for thought.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) can give us some clues.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 01, 2021
US Dollar Index: Subtle Changes, Remarkable Outcomes / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Even the smallest moves can be of utmost importance to a number of investors. This time, the USDX was the one to give a subtle nod to the upcoming changes.
In yesterday’s analysis , I wrote about the subtle, yet very important short-term detail that likely indicated a major turnaround in the USD Index. This is huge news for the precious metals investors, as a major turnaround in the USDX (and the subsequent rallies) would be very likely to translate into a severe price slide.
Monday, April 12, 2021
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Americans appear to be growing more concerned about the skyrocketing national debt level – officially $28.1 trillion and counting.
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation’s monthly Fiscal Confidence Index recently shed five points, dropping to a level of 47, in the wake of the Biden Administration’s latest $2 trillion stimulus package.
That $2 trillion bill is simply piled on top of already massive budget deficits.
And it adds furthers to concerns over the country’s currency, the Federal Reserve Note “dollar.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this second part of our exploration of the recent US Dollar rally and what it may be reacting to in relation to the current US stock market highs and continued rally, we will explore some of the underlying factors that are translating into US Dollar strength while the US stock market continues to push higher.
In the first part of this research article, we highlighted the US Dollar reaction to the 2008-09 credit market crisis and how the US Dollar actually started to bottom/rally in early 2008 – just as the rollover top in the US stock markets continued to setup. The way the US Dollar reacts to stress factors in the global markets is to strengthen as a safe haven as capital is constantly seeking the best environment for investment and profits. When the markets enter a period of turmoil, the US Dollar typically begins to strengthen before the global markets really begin to react to the fear or turmoil.
The recent news of large financial institutions and hedge funds taking large losses and closing operations is somewhat similar to the Lehman event of 2008. These types of larger corporate debt collapses have wide-range global market effects. Sometimes, these events can ripple into other global corporations who engaged in this level of financing or credit functions. For example, Credit Suisse’s attempt to recoup potential losses from the Greensill collapse may be a very complicated and fruitless process according to a recent Wall Street Journal article.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Previously dismissed, the USDX may now be back with a vengeance. Sentiment is swinging away from shorts and there is an uncanny historical pattern.
With a potential bearish pattern already broken, the USDX is resuming its journey northward. And why is it geared to do well? Is it because the U.S. economy is ripping head? Definitely not - that’s not happening. It’s rather because other regions (think Europe and Japan) are doing even worse.
The dollar’s imminent rise doesn’t mean that gold can’t still experience some very short-term upswing, but for the medium-term, the precious metals continue to face bearish headwinds.
With the greenback laying back and enjoying a well-deserved Easter vacation, gold, silver and the gold miners avoided a dollar-drama for at least another day. However, with the USD Index working to regain its supremacy, along with investors’ respect, the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has quietly dissipated from the investing zeitgeist.
Case in point: the USD Index has broken above its monthly declining resistance line and has already made four new highs since the New Year. More importantly though, because the precious metals have a strong negative correlation with the U.S. dollar, the upward momentum has coincided with an 8.78% drawdown of gold, a 6.18% drawdown of silver and a 6.41% drawdown of the GDX ETF.
Wednesday, March 17, 2021
US Dollar Debasement Accelerates with Biden Bailout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
As Washington prepares to pump another $1.9 trillion in stimulus into the economy, asset prices are lifting. From food to housing to equities to precious metals, inflationary pressures are being felt in all markets this week.
Investors can thank politicians and their enablers at the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, President Joe Biden signed the massive $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package into law.
Direct payments of $1,400 will soon be hitting Americans bank accounts. And hundreds of billions of dollars will be deployed to bail out state and local governments. Of course, funding for various other programs unrelated to COVID losses was inserted into the legislation as well. As well as a remarkable federal ban on states enacting net tax cuts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 05, 2021
US Dollar Has Crossed the “Event Horizon” / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Raymond_Matison
The “event horizon” is a term used in astronomy which describes an imaginary point some distance from a black hole in the center of a galaxy where the gravitational force becomes so strong that any heavenly body which crosses that point (visualized as a circle around the black hole) cannot escape the hole’s gravitational pull, and matter is inexorably pulled into the black hole destroying it completely. This is an apt analogue to the continuous and increasing printing of fiat currency where once an astronomic amount of debt is issued creating the currency, it then starts to lose purchasing value such that it is no longer possible for it not to lose all or most of its value, and it collapses on itself. Similar to stellar mass being destroyed in the case of black holes, the currency and its purchasing value is completely or mostly destroyed.
This article proposes that unrelenting growth of national debt, which is the basis for currency creation has reached a global inflection level such that the value of fiat currencies across the globe, with several notable country exceptions, are drawn into a whirlpool of decline that will ultimately result in its near complete loss of value.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 22, 2021
US Dollar Decline creates New Sector Opportunities to Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The weakness in the US Dollar, which initiated after the Covid-19 peak in March 2020, has entered an extended downward price trend which is nearing a key support level near 88.33. One key factor related to this trend is a weakness in the US Dollar, which means other foreign currencies become comparatively stronger. This transitional currency valuation phase creates an environment where localized foreign investments may become much more opportunistic than the US stock market/sectors if this US Dollar decline continues. Simply put, foreign investors will suddenly start to realize they are losing alpha in US Dollar based investments compared to stronger, foreign currency-based investments over time and move their capital to profit from the US Dollar’s decline.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 06, 2021
What Will the U.S. Dollar Ring in for 2021? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The fate of the U.S. Dollar will weigh heavily on the future of the precious metals in 2021. At first glance, the USDX’s prospects look rather bleak in the first months of the year, but as the pages of the book turn, the dollar’s likely later ascension could prove rather bearish for gold and the PMs.
Breaking hearts as the USD Index falls in and out of love, the greenback continues to leave bulls at the altar, which is likely to have important implications for the gold market in the following weeks . Dressed to impress, investors lined the cathedral aisles as the USDX looked ready to commit to the 90-level.
But as cold feet turned into a dash for the exit, 2020 ended without a celebration.
However, as we enter 2021 and net-short futures positions (non-commercial traders) remain at their highest level since 2006, the slightest shift in sentiment could have wedding bells ringing again.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 30, 2020
Further U.S. Dollar Debasement Ahead in 2021 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
In a year that was marred by a global pandemic and a wave of economic restrictions that crippled many small businesses, financial markets proved to be resilient.
Of course, that resilience owes in no small part to the unprecedented outpouring of stimulus from Congress and the Federal Reserve.
More stimulus is on the way. On Sunday, President Donald Trump signed the latest COVID relief package into law.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 02, 2020
US Dollar Staying Engulfed in Bearish Bias Amid U.S Presidential Debate / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The USD Index declined yesterday, while the precious metals market moved higher, possibly due to the relatively “turbulent” pre-election debate in the U.S. But still, did anything actually change regarding the outlook?
Not really.
As we have stated in our previous analyses, while gold and the rest of the precious metals market will probably decline significantly in the following weeks, and that a short-term correction would not be surprising at all. The same holds true for the USD Index, except that the direction of any possible moves could be considered the opposite.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 23, 2020
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
So far, 2020 has been an incredible and challenging year for the many markets, and that does not exclude gold, arguably one of the most important and most valuable commodities in the world.
The yellow metal’s price is influenced by a myriad of obvious and non-obvious short and long-term factors, such as the long-term turning point and its self-similar pattern. In recent months, we’ve already discussed the presence of gold’s long-term turning point in broad detail. Furthermore, only a couple of weeks ago, we’ve learned about the powerful self-similarity pattern in gold, making sense of similarly shaped patterns in the marketplace over different periods.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 20, 2020
US Dollar Setting Up for Potential Upside Election Trend / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
- Presidential election cycles drive US Dollar trends.
- US Dollar expected to rise before the election and then stall right before the day of the election.
- Money will start shifting away from the stock market now, and traders will likely target safe-haven investments and undervalued traditional investments (dividends, blue chips, utilities, energy, bonds, consumer service and supplies, and possibly technology suppliers) going forward.
- The potential for a US Dollar upside price rally after the elections (just like the 2013~2014 setup) is a very valid expectation from a technical analysis perspective.
Thursday, August 20, 2020
Technical Analysis Points to US Dollar Upside Potential / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Article Highlights:
- The US Dollar Presidential Price Cycle indicates rising US Dollar
- The US Dollar is not the best asset, but rather the best of all currencies
- Price Relationships Suggest The US Dollar Is Currently Undervalued
- How The Presidential Price Cycle May Create Opportunities in Precious Metals and the US Stock Market
It’s been a while since we published an article about the US Dollar and this is the perfect time to discuss that is likely to happen over the next 6 to 18+ months. The US Presidential Election is just around the corner and traders/investors are certain to interpret the uncertainty of the US Presidential Election cycle, and the pending policy and liability related changes, as a warning that equities and the US Dollar may be in for a wild ride over the next 6+ months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 31, 2020
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Steinbock
As US economy is heading toward its disastrous 2nd quarter results, the Trump administration is considering the expansion of the trade war to finance, which could destabilize the US dollar and derail the post-pandemic global economy.
After its failure in the COVID-19 containment and the expected -53 percent plunge of real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter, President Trump’s re-election campaign is in serious trouble. To deflect the blame, his administration has launched a series of provocative measures against China thereby fueling elevated bilateral tensions.
Worse, the White House is reportedly considering moving from a bilateral trade war to an effort to exclude China from the dollar-denominated international payment network. In Beijing, that would be seen as weaponization of US dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 27, 2020
US Dollar Cycle Review / Currencies / US Dollar
By: readtheticker
If investors can correctly forecast the US Dollar then their portfolio will be standing on better ground.
Jesse Livermore said investors must familiarise themselves with all matters of the market. The sine wave cycle below shows regular tops and bottoms and if the investor ignores this repeating phenomena it could be at their peril. If you decide to do so, you best have a good technical or fundamental reason.
The sine wave cycle below was found with readtheticker.com 'Cycle Finder Spectrum' use of 'Bartels' logic. Yes it is mathematics, but within the site RTT Plus service we also examine the dollar fundamentals (like: inflation, money supply, banking risk, interest rates, market risk) and subject to another market like COVID19 smash the fundamentals suggest a slump in the US dollar in the immediate short term future.
Friday, July 17, 2020
In Weaponizing the Dollar Trump’s Lieutenants Flunk Finance 101 / Politics / US Dollar
By: Steve_H_Hanke
In a scoop, Bloomberg reported last week that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and some of President Trump’s top lieutenants are considering fully weaponizing the U.S. dollar to undermine Hong Kong’s financial system. The idea has been hatched to punish China for its recent aggressions in Hong Kong.
Just what does the weaponization of the greenback entail? The U.S. dollar is the international currency. It is the major reserve currency held by central banks, the most prominent currency used to denominate debt, and the unit of account for invoicing goods and services in international trade. The dollar’s stable value means that it is used widely for both international payment and interbank transactions, as well as for official intervention in foreign-exchange markets. In short, the dollar is entrenched at the center of the international financial system. This gives the United States an “exorbitant privilege,” as the Frenchman Valéry Giscard d’ Estaing pointedly put it. For the U.S., the benefits are incalculable.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 01, 2020
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
June started off with speculators decidedly negative toward the U.S. dollar.
On the second day of the month, the Financial Times said:
Wall Street strategists say dollar could be set for "dramatic" falls
Elliott Wave International's June 10 U.S. Short Term Update, a three-times-a-week publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, took note of the bearish sentiment when it showed this chart and said:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 29, 2020
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles / Currencies / US Dollar
By: readtheticker
Where is price going, is there strength or weakness in the chart?
Previous Post on the US Dollar : Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?
The question is always what will the future price action look like ?
This post will highlight the use of lines generated by angles. Not trend lines, as trend lines require two known points on a chart, where as angles require only one known point and a angle degree to draw a line. The question then becomes how is the angle degree determined.
There are two theories: Gann Angles and Ney Angles. Gann angles are a fixed set of degrees (see below) and these degrees are based loosely on astrology and the regular cycle of planets around the sun. Gann said price would move between these angles as the angles acted as like critical support and resistance.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 22, 2020
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: readtheticker
where-is-the-us-dollar-trend-headedJesse Livermore said we consider all matters concerning the market, this includes demand and supply fundamentals, general conditions and price patterns.
A high US dollar is the mighty destroyer of all, it explodes foreign debt and risk assets, and it will likely change US politics.
The chart below supports a greater supply of US dollars and a bearish dollar view.
The green line is the spread between the German 10 yr interest rate versus the US 10 yr interest rates, and it is showing bearish pressure on the US dollar. The black line is the trend of the US twin deficits and the US dollar as followed this trend over a very long time and the forecast is for deeper deficits into 2020-22.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 04, 2020
The US Dollar Index: How Can it Help You Trading? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Luckily, there are various ways to optimize your trading besides technical and fundamental analysis, especially when it comes to forex trading. Chances are that you are currently thinking about the live forex rates, however, there is an even more powerful tool to take advantage of the US dollar Index.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 08, 2020
Coronavirus Infects US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Mills
Up to a month ago the US dollar was showing resilience in the face of a slowdown in the global economy evidenced by anemic growth. As central banks including the US Federal Reserve reacted by lowering interest rates, it looked as though strength in the US economy (stock market bull, 50-year-low unemployment, etc.) would see the States through the downturn, especially since US Treasury yields were that much higher than those of competing bonds such as the German “bund”.
All that has changed with the coronavirus.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
The US Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold and the US dollar. The yellow metal and its fiat nemesis. Often, they move inversely, though the strength and even the direction of their relationship varies when examined from different time perspectives. What is the message the greenback is sending out currently?
The USD Index is moving up in a rising trend channel (all medium-term highs are higher than the preceding ones) that formed after the index ended a very sharp rally. This means that the price movement within the rising trend channel is actually a running correction, which is the most bullish type of correction out there. If a market declines a lot after rallying, it means that the bears are strong. If it declines a little, it means that bears are only moderately strong. If the price moves sideways instead of declining, it means that the bears are weak. And the USD Index didn’t even manage to move sideways. The bears are so weak, and the bulls are so strong that the only thing that the USD Index managed to do despite Fed’s very dovish turn and Trump’s calls for lower USD, is to still rally, but at a slower pace.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 18, 2019
Setting Up A U.S. Dollar Crash And Metals Rise / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Avi_Gilburt
I know that many investors follow correlations as if they were gospel. But, do they really understand what a correlation represents?
You see, markets are not linear in nature. While two different markets may be traveling in the same direction for a period of time, unless you understand each chart on its own, how will you ever know when a seeming correlation will break? And, if you assume that they will align indefinitely, how long does it take for you to cut your losses in determining that a seeming correlation has broken?
Remember, when you are following a correlation, all you are doing is assuming a relationship will continue indefinitely in a linear manner, despite the fact that markets are simply not linear in nature.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Is the Run on the US Dollar Due to Panic or Greed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ellen_Brown
What’s going on in the repo market? Rates on repurchase (“repo”) agreements should be about 2%, in line with the Federal Reserve funds rate. But they shot up to over 5% on Sept. 16 and got as high as 10% on Sept. 17. Yet banks were refusing to lend to each other, evidently passing up big profits to hold onto their cash—just as they did in the housing market crash and Great Recession of 2008-09.
Because banks weren’t lending, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York jumped in, increasing its overnight repo operations to $75 billion, and on Oct. 23, it upped the ante to $120 billion in overnight operations and $45 billion in longer-term operations.
Why are banks no longer lending to each other? Are they afraid that collapse is imminent somewhere in the system, as with the Lehman collapse in 2008?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 03, 2019
Is US Dollar Topping? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The Fed’s monetary stance has turned 180 degree this year. Recall last year the Fed talked about shrinking the balance sheet on auto pilot and raising interest rate. The QT (Quantitative Tightening) of $50 billion a month, according to former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, should be boring like watching paint dry. By July this year, the $50 billion monthly rundown has ended. Instead, the Fed embarks in another balance sheet inflation to the tune of 60 billion a month. In mid-September, short term funding in repo market spiked to 10% from 2% overnight. This suggests stress in the financial system as some banks and financial institution can’t find necessary cash in the market. The Fed quickly points out this balance sheet expansion is different than asset purchase from years ago. Below is the chart of the Fed’s balance sheet. It has dropped steadily from 2017 and reverses higher this year.
Friday, October 11, 2019
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A good technical starting point would be a quick look at the prospects for the US Dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 10, 2019
Monetary Madness Puts U.S. Dollars Holders in Jeopardy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
We’re in uncharted territory. Never before have U.S. fiscal and monetary policy been leveraged so heavily to boost an economy that wasn’t even in recession.
Something will break – and it could be the value of U.S. currency. The Federal Reserve Note now faces devaluation pressures on multiple fronts.
With the federal government running a trillion-dollar budget deficit and an election year approaching, fiscal restraint is a dead letter in Washington, D.C. Politicians are fighting over who can promise to borrow and spend the most.
Monday, September 09, 2019
UUP Bullish Cycles from May 2011 lows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Firstly the dollar tracking ETF fund UUP inception date was 2/20/2007. Interestingly the dollar index has a low in March 2008. The UUP ETF fund shows a low in May 2011. The dollar index did make a pullback cycle low in May 2011 however it was well above the March 2008 lows. The bullish cycle up from the May 2011 lows in UUP is the focus of this analysis where it begins on the weekly chart. It should see some further upside before any larger size pullbacks relative to the longer term cycles.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 31, 2019
King Dollar Global Reserve Paradox / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
An intriguing paradox is evident, whereby the USDollar continues to rise despite the global economic recession. In fact, it can be argued that the USDollar is rising in the past several months, because of the global recession. On a worldwide basis, the economy is struggling badly, especially in the West. Worse still, without a doubt, the rising USDollar is destroying the individual economies of smaller nations, one by one. The King Dollar is truly an economic machete. Numerous factors are at work. All contribute toward the continued rise of the USDollar until the systemic breakdown hits both the economy and the financial system. The sign of systemic breakdown is the bond rally, which has taken bond yields into negative territory. Nobody with a working cerebrum can claim that $17 trillion in sovereign bonds sporting negative yields can defend the current system as either normal or stable. The Fed Valuation Model justifies higher stock index values when bond yields are lower, but the model has no modern feature for negative rates. Eventually, and soon, the only beneficiary will be Gold & Silver, along with a few hard assets like diamonds.
Tuesday, August 13, 2019
US Dollar Finally the Achillles Heel / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
All important factors are finally putting tremendous pressure on the USDollar. The weak economy will result in lower interest rates, thus more downward USD pressure. The enormous USGovt debt will result in further bond dumps in addition to trade settlement outside the USD, thus more downward pressure. The resentment for threatened hot wars, trade wars, economic sanctions, and SWIFT obstructions will result in amplified resentment. They will respond with a global boycott of the King Dollar, dumping of USTreasury Bonds, and thus more downward pressure. Worse, a global currency war might erupt in the very near future, which might have basis in competing interest rates from monetary policy in addition to competing bond yields. The remarkable fact that has come to the table in the last few weeks is that foreign sovereign bond offerings are having strong demand despite lower bond yields offered than USTreasurys. However, the USTreasury auctions are being gradually noticed as failures, despite higher bond yields offered. The message is crystal clear, that collateral for the huge debt is far more important than the carry, namely the bond yield. Finally the USGovt debt is being questioned, as it rises past the $22 trillion level, as the debt limit is suspended, and as the over $20 trillion in missing funds is publicized. The USGovt financial room is a recognized crime scene.
Friday, August 02, 2019
After Fed Disappoints, Will Trump Initiate Currency Intervention? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Following months of cajoling by the White House, the Federal Reserve finally cut its benchmark interest rate. However, the reaction in equity and currency markets was not the one President Donald Trump wanted – or many traders anticipated.
The Trump administration wants the Fed to help drive the fiat U.S. dollar lower versus foreign currencies, especially those of major exporting countries.
Instead, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied throughout July ahead of the expected rate cut and continued rallying after Fed chairman Jerome Powell made it official on Wednesday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Strong Dollar is good for Small Businesses / Politics / US Dollar
By: BATR
The Trump economy has provided a much needed optimism. While confidence for the future has grown over the meager performance under Obama, the fabric of prosperity has not yet achieved universal reach. Remember that an America First economy thrives on a strong dollar. So it is unfortunate that the establishment is pushing President Trump into favoring an internationalist trading system that hinders a domestic small business economy. The corporatists on Wall Street hate independent business.
In order to combat the export of American jobs, much higher tariffs should be imposed. Raising the value of the U.S. Dollar (Federal Reserve notes) would put an end to the oversea search for the cheapest labor regime. International trade that diminishes domestic output has been the primary cause of destroying our national autonomy. For those who are in denial, admitting this fact is a major threat to their cartel of global interdependency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 30, 2019
US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A major breakdown is in progress for the USDollar index. It has broken its intermediate uptrend which began in April 2018. Eighteen months of official rate hikes and tremendous hidden activity with derivative bond purchases, which obscure the absent USTreasury Bond buyers, have finally weighed on the King Dollar. The USEconomy suffers from 20 key breakdown signals, about which the lapdog press refuses to report. The historical tightening has turned into a failed experiment, an attempt to return to normalcy when no such event can possibly occur. Ponzi Schemes cannot be gradually unwound. The USGovt debt has gone past $22 trillion. The USGovt deficit this year is set to surpass $1.3 trillion. The missing money volume for the USGovt, a fat pig exploited by various departments, is conservatively estimated at $21 trillion. The global bond market investors no longer expect the USGovt debt to be repaid, as a failure mindset has crept into the bond arena. Given the repeated treatment since 2008, with expansion, the USTreasury Bond has become the global subprime bond. Next comes the reversal of monetary policy, where the US Federal Reserve begins to do emergency rate cuts in sequence. Expect some big name corporations to be monetized. The USDollar will be harmed, Gold will surely rise, and Oil will likely fall. A very valid point must be made. In past financial crises, the United States drew $trillions in capital from foreign markets. Next the opposite will occur, as foreigners will remove $trillions from their US holdings in both stocks and bonds. The US will be left to defend itself with corrupt devices. Gold will respond.
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US dollar rallied nearly half a percent off recent support near $96.50. This upside price move confirms the capital shift we have been talking about. Foreign capital is pouring into US markets and US dollar as strength in the US economy continues to dominate.
This new upside move in the US dollar has established a new lower price channel that should continue to act as price support going forward. Fibonacci price structure dictates that a higher low and a higher high price rotation may follow. We would expect some resistance just below the $98 level and if the Fed lowers the rate the dollar will likely pullback and consolidate for a few weeks to digest the news, but investors will still see the USD as the strong currency and keep buying it longer term.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 17, 2019
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One of the biggest movers of the day on Friday was the US dollar. The US stock market appeared very weak prior to the opening bell and precious metals, especially gold, appeared to be rocketing higher. Almost right from the open, the markets washed out the fear and changed direction. The US dollar did the same thing.
This renewed strength in the US dollar continues to baffle foreign investors and foreign governments as they continue to try to support their economies and currencies against a stronger and more agile US economy and currency. Even as the US dollar strength is frustrating many investors, it is also attempting to keep a lid on traditional safe havens such as precious metals.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 04, 2019
New U.S. Sanctions Spark Blowback Against Federal Reserve Note Dollar System / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
U.S. leaders are demanding the rest of the world recognize economic sanctions and stop buying Iranian oil. The U.K., Germany, France, Russia, China, and India are among the nations who don’t fully support the sanctions and would rather not pay higher prices for oil elsewhere.
American officials more and more often resort to delivering ultimatums, both to adversaries and allies alike. Nations that do not follow orders stand to lose access to the U.S. financial system and could face trade sanctions of their own. That is a serious threat.
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Mills
Ahead of the Herd has been digging into why central banks are buying a lot of gold recently . What we’ve found is eyebrow-raising, to say the least. It may be the best reason you’ve ever read for wanting to buy gold.
Take this headline from the Northern Miner: “Editorial: Central banks are major gold buyers in 2019”. Citing statistics from the World Gold Council, the Northern Miner reports that central banks netted 51 tonnes in gold purchases, the most since October 2018, when they increased gold held in central bank vaults by 105 tonnes. Switching to ounces, the Miner states that gold holdings grew by a startling 2.9 million ounces in January and February 2019, versus 1.9 Moz during the same period of 2018. This is the highest level of gold buying by central banks since the first two months of 2008 - during the financial crisis.
Central banks backed up the truck for gold in 2018, buying 651.5 tonnes versus 375 tonnes in 2017. That’s the largest net purchase of gold since 1967.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 08, 2019
What’s Next for the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
People don’t understand gold. They don’t understand the U.S. dollar either.Mostly, it’s the same people.
Gold bugs thought we were debasing the dollar by printing our way out of the 2008/9 financial crisis. Ha! Actually, the dollar has been rising since the start of that recession. The dollar, not gold, is actually the safe haven for the markets.
Right now, it’s range bound, but the dollar strengthened as much as 47%, at its best, during the last 11 years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 08, 2019
US Dollar Key Fundamentals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
A reminder that we are not using the standard gold bug method of evaluating the USD (perma “death to the dollar!!”). We are using fundamentals in evaluating its potential to correct (and launch a global macro trade). The blue shaded boxes on this weekly chart tell the story of Fed policy (Fed Funds/3 mo. T-Bill) that significantly lagged the upturn in the 2yr yield into late 2015. But USD turned up much earlier (in 2014) to follow the 2yr.
Today we have an opposite situation. The 2yr has turned down (putting the Fed in dove mode) but Fed policy is going sideways. We are relatively early in a new blue box and if the correlation between USD and the 2yr holds (in reverse) either USD will correct soon or the 2yr will rise again (and whipsaw an increasingly clownish looking Fed).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 23, 2019
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund explains why the dollar breakdown after the Fed's rate announcement is good news for precious metals.
The Fed statement that it won't be raising rates again this year had a dramatic effect on both the dollar and the precious metals sector. The dollar had been struggling to make further progress for some time and the Fed statement kicked the crutches out from under it, and it broke sharply lower, as we can see on its latest 1-year chart below. It broke below its 200-day moving average, the 1st time it has been below it for almost a year, and it also broke it down below its uptrend. This was a development made all the more serious and decisive by the fact that it is currently tightly bunched with its moving averages, which means that it is at a key inflexion point—it could have broken either way, but the Fed has decided its direction with its stated policy not to raise rates this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 16, 2019
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Kelsey_Williams
When it comes to analysis of gold, the U.S. Dollar Index finds nearly universal acceptance. Or rather, when most analysts refer to comparison/correlation of the U.S. dollar to gold, they usually illustrate their point with a chart of the U.S. dollar index.
While they won’t say it straight out, most of them see the U.S. Dollar Index as a proxy for the U.S. dollar. But, is it? From Wikipedia…
“The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners’ currencies. The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains “strength” (value) when compared to other currencies.”
The “basket of foreign currencies” used are: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Swiss franc.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Consequences of US Dollar Lost Global Reserve Status / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Gold suppression game appears finally to be coming to an end. A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (QE), an external factor (SGE), and a systemic factor (Basel). All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. They have been willing to destroy the global financial structure and many national economies, in order not just to maintain the political power, but also to continue the privilege of granting themselves $trillion free loans. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. They saw corrupted underwriting, corrupted title database, rigged market pricing, and corrupted demand functions. Slowly the realization is coming to the fore, stated by a few astute analysts. In the last decade, the US-UK banksters have created the USTreasury bond as the global subprime bond. This is the result of astounding persistent magnificent QE abuse and hidden corruption. The so-called financial stimulus is actually hyper monetary inflation, which has destroyed the bond market.
Friday, December 21, 2018
UUP Update…The Dollar Channel / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Yesterday I posted this daily chart for the UUP suggesting that it could very well be building out a new uptrend channel with the current price action trading at the top rail where it has been chopping out the small blue rising wedge. Today we are getting some follow through to the downside.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 03, 2018
DXY: “The Reports Of My Death Are Greatly Exaggerated” / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those literary enthusiasts amongst us, you would recognize the title as the line supposedly penned by Mark Twain when it was inquired of him while in London regarding a published obituary written in the United States.
However, more accurately, his response to the reporter’s inquiry was “The report of my death was an exaggeration.” But, I digress.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 12, 2018
US Dollar Engulfing Bearish Pattern Warns Of Dollar Weakness / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A unique setup has occurred in the UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index) that resembles an Engulfing Bearish type of pattern (even though it is not technically an Engulfing Bearish pattern). Technically, an Engulfing Bearish pattern should consist of a green candle followed by a larger red candle whereas the red candle’s body (the open to close range) completely engulfs the previous candle’s body. In the instance we are highlighting in this article, a unique variation of what we’ll call a “Completely Filled Engulfing Bearish” pattern is setting up.
Friday, October 05, 2018
USD Lifted by Data and Fed Chair Powell’s Remarks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
The US dollar outperformed all its major peers yesterday following solid economic data and hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Italian assets were supported by the reports that Italy’s government is planning to scale back its deficit targets for 2020 and 2021, while in the UK, PM May’s speech did not result in any major market reaction.
Dollar and Tr. Yields Surge on Upbeat US Data and Powell’s Comments
The dollar managed to outperform all the other G10 currencies on Wednesday. It gained the most against NZD, AUD and NOK, while the currencies against which it gained the least were GBP and CAD.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Mills
Donald Trump will go down in history for many things, including a justice department investigation into US-Russian collusion in the 2016 election, a guilty verdict for his former campaign chair, Paul Manafort, and a guilty plea by his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, in relation to hush-money payments to women in violation of campaign finance laws. Then there was the Access Hollywood tape, the ban on Muslims, the implicit condoning of neo-Nazis, the plans to build a border wall to keep out illegal Mexicans, the separation of immigrant children from their parents (though some say that law was drafted under Obama), and Trump’s ban on global abortion funding to please the pro-life portion of his base. Could Trump’s legacy though be something few had ever predicted: The beginning of the end of the dollar?
On the economic front though, it appears that Trump is doing all the right things. The Dow was at its highest-ever level of 26,616.71 in January, just over a year after Trump took office. The US dollar is strong, unemployment is at its lowest level in 20 years, the stock market is booming, and the Fed thinks things are going so well that they are ready to pass more interest rate hikes. Why has the US dollar done well? Mostly because of high demand for US Treasuries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 10, 2018
Should You be Worried About the Rising U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. Dollar Index has been going up over the past 5 months, driven higher by Trump’s trade war.
This has some stock market traders worried, because economic theory states that “a rising U.S. Dollar is bad for the economy and stock market”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 26, 2018
The PetroDollar Matrix / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
At the forefront of the media’s attention today is Russia. We’re not really sure why, (well, of course we are) but it seems that Russia has become the new boogeyman. Everything is Russia’s fault. I’ve even heard rumors that the National Weather Service has plans to blame Russia for all the confounded rain in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this summer. We know – right away you’re thinking this is going to be about Russia but it’s really not. It’s about what the media isn’t telling you. It’s why (we believe), Trump’s Tweets, Ivanka’s Sweets, Russiagate, the left’s hate, the right’s hate (aka, establishment theatre) are all taking the headlines while a very disturbing trend is left in plain sight. It’s the 800-pound gorilla in the room during any discussion involving economics and geopolitics, but nobody wants to talk about it.
Friday, August 24, 2018
US Dollar Rumbling Below the Surface / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Today is all about Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speech at 10 am Eastern, but from a market perspective, we might want to keep a close watch on the reaction of the USD to what Powell says or does not say.
Why? Yesterday's strength in the Dollar has reversed overnight into this morning's pre-market session.
In a post to members at 15:30 yesterday, I posited the following about the USD: "The $64,000 question about Gold and the Gold Miners depends on the direction of the USD: Was the recent decline in DXY the start of a period of weakness or a completed correction?"
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 17, 2018
US Dollar Index Mini Crash Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Latest Price – 96.57
Previous analysis updated – previous daily chart analysis was a bust. There remains no change to the overall outlook.
Daily Chart
Friday, July 27, 2018
Trump Put to Lower US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Has President Trump introduced a Trump Put by lashing out about rising interest rates and calling for a weaker dollar? The market reacted swiftly - and rationally - albeit not the way Trump had intended. Let me explain.
Trump suggests the U.S. is put at a “disadvantage” given that the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan continue their more expansionary monetary policies. Markets reacted by selling off the dollar versus major currencies. If that were all, you might shrug this off as disruptor-in-chief rattling the currency markets a bit. Maybe there isn’t much more to it. After all, speculators had been bidding up the greenback of late and, possibly, this was as good a catalyst as any to take some profits.1 But that’s not the end of it. First, Mr. Trump appears to favor a weaker dollar and may well provide more verbal intervention should the dollar resume its climb. In that sense, Mr. Trump has introduced Trump put. But why is it that a comment by the President moves currency markets? Partially, this may be because he has shown a willingness to use executive power to interfere with trade.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
Has the USD Finally Topped? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
The USD has had a bullish run out of it’s Intermediate and Yearly Cycle Low (YCL) in early February but it is now deep in my timing band to start seeking out its next 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). While I don’t want to overplay the negative correlation between the USD and Gold the correlation has been quite strong for most of 2018. A major top in the USD here, should benefit Gold and the broader CRB here.
My first chart is a close up Daily showing Friday’s bearish reversal candle and close below the 10ma on day 9. A close below the 10ma usually always signal’s a move into a short term Trading or Daily Cycle Low (TCL/DCL) and should provide enough Time for the USD to test the 200ma near 92 on my Daily chart. Day 9 is the earliest top we have seen in a short term Trading or Daily Cycle but we now need further confirmation, including a close next week below the 10wma on the Weekly. Note that the 10wma has been very strong support since early April but Time is also becoming an Issue for the USD here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 15, 2018
The US Dollar Crash of 2018 Has Begun / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Previous analysis updated – in previous analysis produced on the 21st June 2018, I called the high of the rally at 95.22. This was wrong. It traded marginally higher, 3 pips in fact, putting in a high of 95.25 on the 28th June. It now appears as if it is all systems go for the mini crash of 2018. This should, in my opinion, be confirmed next week with follow through to the downside.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 05, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis: Is US Dollar About to Turn? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
At Elliottwave-Forecast.com, we use correlation as one tool to complement our forecast. We often use USDPLN as we believe it is good proxy for Dollar Index (DXY). In below’s chart, we overlay the two instrument, and we can clearly see they are nearly identical
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 29, 2018
Where the U.S. Dollar Will Go Next / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Troy_Bombardia
For a long time I said that “Money Flow” determines a currency pair’s direction. But I’ve never been able to quantify that concept using an indicator. I’ve tried various things over the years: inflation differentials, interest rate differentials, etc. All of these were commonly accepted theories but were disproven in the light of historical data.
From Ed Yardeni’s book “Predicting the Markets”, we can now quantify the idea behind Money Flow:
On a 12 month basis, the United States has been running widening trade deficits for decades. The trade deficit of the U.S. must equal the trade surplus of the rest of the world. So the 12 month change of non-gold international reserves held by all central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) minus the trade surplus of the rest of the world should be a proxy for capital inflows (and outflows) to the rest of the world from the U.S.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 23, 2018
A Trade War Won’t Be Good for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
On Wall Street, it's best not to think too hard or to look too closely into the mouths of gift horses. Since making predictions based on actual economic understanding is rare, analysts typically look to provide explanations after the fact. Within the financial services industry, currency traders are perhaps the greatest practitioners of this craft. While they often get the fundamentals completely wrong, it never seems to stop them from offering bizarre theories to explain currency movements.
Friday, June 22, 2018
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Previous analysis updated – price has continued rallying right up to the previous swing high and I believe the 2018 top was made today at 95.22. The expectation of a mini crash in the second half of the year remains unchanged.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 06, 2018
USD IS POINTING HIGHER IN THE SHORT TERM / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Enda_Glynn
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Crude Oil Inventories.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: N/A.
JPY: N/A.
Thursday, May 24, 2018
The USD Index’s Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
While we regularly cover the individual currency pairs, in today’s alert, we’ll focus on their common denominator – the USD Index. The reason is that whatever happens to it, will have profound implications on what happens in the rest of the forex world. And it seems that quite a lot is going to happen, and it’s not going to be intuitive.
As one can see, there is a general tendency for a given market to move up until it is very overbought and then to correct or decline significantly. At the least - visibly and at the most - extremely and another way of describing the latter is to say that the market is going to become very oversold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 14, 2018
U.S. Dollar Rally Is Doomed / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses movements in the U.S. dollar. There was an article written a few days back where the author vehemently denied that the U.S. dollar could go any lower and where the phrases "face-ripping," "face ripper," and "rip your face off" (as well as derivatives thereof) were mentioned no fewer than nine times in a fifteen-paragraph article. The reasons given were all highly subjective and based in Modern Portfolio Theory, but what was concluded is that, once again, the U.S. dollar remains the "least smelly shirt in the laundry hamper" with aromas emitted by the euro, yen, pound and yuan all significantly more pungent than the Yankee greenback. I whole-heartedly disagree and it has nothing to do with anything taught in the CFA course or at the Rotman School of Business but rather in The Academy of Common Sense and The Ballanger Institute for Non-BS Learning.
Monday, May 14, 2018
US Dollar One Reversal Too Many / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Friday was the day when silver and mining stocks were likely to reverse based on their triangle-apex-based turning points and today is the day of gold’s apex-based reversal. Therefore, it seems likely that gold, silver and mining stocks are forming the final top for this short-term upswing, or that it is already in place. The problem with the reversal scenario is that the previous week was one big bearish reversal in the USD Index. Weekly reversals are significant and thus odds of a move lower in the USD increased substantially. This means more upside in metals and miners. What should one do with the profits from the current long position?
Saturday, May 12, 2018
The US Dollar Crash of 2018 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Latest Price – 92.41
Price has rallied solidly over the last few weeks however absolutely no damage has been done to the overall downtrend and I believe a mini crash will occur over the coming months that sees price drop down to around the 80 level.
Monday, April 30, 2018
The Battle to Save the Dollar and Treasuries / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a look at the prospect of a growing interest rate differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world and what that means to the dollar.
The latest dollar Hedgers charts make clear that the dollar is unlikely to drop soon, and that it is more likely that the recent rally will continue. How can that be, given the U.S. has proportionally more debt than most other countries in the world?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 13, 2018
If Inflation is Just 2%-3%, Why is the US Dollar Dropping Like a Brick? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
The financial world is finally waking up to the fact that inflation is in fact MUCH higher than previously believed.
As we noted yesterday, the official measure of inflation, the CPI, is now clocking in at 2.4%, well above the Fed’s so-called target of 2%.
This is really, REALLY bad news because the CPI is actually massaged to make inflation look LOWER than it really is.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 08, 2018
US Dollar Index Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – price looks to be in a consolidating the downtrend. Once this consolidation is over, which I believe is imminent, the downtrend should resume and see price crack to new lows.Bollinger Bands – these bands clearly show the sideways action in play currently. Price looks like it has just turned down failing to reach the upper band. The lower band has already been hit three times during this consolidation phase and the fourth attempt is usually successful at breaking through.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 07, 2018
U.S. Dollar: Why It Pays to Use the Elliott Wave Model / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
See the signs that could’ve helped you nail two junctures in the greenback's trend
The legendary football coach Vince Lombardi believed that a winning team is built on mastering the game's basics -- so much so that at the start of the season he would "remind" veteran players, "Gentlemen, this is a football."
Lombardi would even take them out to the field, discuss the boundaries and remind the players that the goal is to get the football into the end zone.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 03, 2018
China Moves to Neuter King Dollar in International Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Last Monday, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched the first futures contract for crude oil priced in Chinese yuan. It’s a major step forward in the process of international de-dollarization. Now Chinese and other international traders can buy and sell the world’s most important commodity in a liquid market without using U.S. dollars.
The “petro dollar” now faces the prospect of being rendered unnecessary as China – the world’s biggest oil importer – attempts to establish a “petro yuan.”
Friday, March 23, 2018
Blaming the Fed for Weaker Greenback US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although the Federal Reserve raised interest rates yesterday, the forecast for two more hikes this year (instead of three) disappointed market participants who turned their backs on the U.S. dollar, triggering quite sharp selloff. But did anything really change in the technical picture of the greenback?
Before we analyze our currency pairs, let’s check what changed (and what has not changed) in the short-term picture of the USD Index after yesterday’s news (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 05, 2018
US Dollar at the Start of Multi-Year Downtrend / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Since the US Dollar trades freely in the 1970s, on average it has rallied and declined in a period of 7.5 years. The chart below shows short term and long term US Dollar cycle:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 23, 2018
Why Recent Lows Are Crucial for US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
Since Friday, the USD Index extends increases and makes up for lost points. Looking at the daily chart you can even conclude that the bulls use every opportunity to push away their opponents from the recent lows. Why are they so important to them? We took a closer look at the situation and we already know the Achilles’ heel of the bulls. Do you also want to know it? We invite you to read today's alert.
Focus on the USD Index
Before we analyze the recent changes in our currency pairs, we decided to take a closer look at the current situation in the USD Index as it is the key driver who generates the major changes on the currency market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 16, 2018
U.S. Dollar Bull and Bear Markets / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The idea of endlessly repeated cycles is a very old one. This is how the ancients perceived time: not as linear sequence of events, but as replaying patterns of dark and golden ages. Although the Judeo-Christian culture changed the way we view time, we like to see the market as an area of constant struggle between bulls and bears, and the resulting upward and downward trends.
Since the end of the Bretton Woods system back in the early 1970s, the U.S. dollar has also moved in trends and cycles. Due to data availability, the chart below shows the trade weighted index of the greenback against the currencies of America’s major trading partners from 1973 until January 2018, with bull and bear markets marked with green and red arrows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 05, 2018
“Strong Dollar,” “Weak Dollar,” What About a Gold-Backed Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Antonius_Aquinas
The recent hullabaloo among President Trump’s top monetary officials about the Administration’s “dollar policy” is just the start of what will likely be the first of many contradictory pronoucements and reversals which will take place in the coming months/years as the world’s reserve currency continues to be compromised. So far, the Greenback has had its worst start since 1987, the year of a major stock market reset.
The brief firestorm was set off by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who said in response to the dollar’s recent slide, “Obviously, a weaker dollar is good for us, it’s good because it has to do with trade and opportunities.”* Mnuchin backtracked a bit as international financial leaders criticized the apparent shift in policy while Administration officials sought to clarify the Secretary’s remarks. President Trump weighted in on the matter saying, “Ultimately, I want to see a strong dollar” and added that Mnuchin’s comments were “taken out of context.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 27, 2018
US Dollar Shocker Plus Gold’s Mutiny Equals Epic Opportunity / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s alert, we wrote that the situation could change quickly and that in such a case, we would send another alert. Six minutes after yesterday’s opening bell, we already posted the second alert. And for a very good reason. The USD Index took a deep dive and metals were not even close to reacting in a normal way. They were actually a bit lower. We know an extremely bearish signal when we see one and that was definitely the most bearish development for the PMs that we’ve seen this year.
Let’s take a look at what happened. This time we’ll start with the short-term USD Index chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) as we want to show you the action of yesterday’s session.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 20, 2018
Has the U.S. Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the January 04, 2018: Market Minute titled: U.S. dollar weakness provides short-term lift to commodities, the $US has been declining for the last four weeks, much to the benefit of many commodity prices and gold in particular.
Since mid-December, the $US has fallen about four percent and gold has advanced over seven percent.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 15, 2018
Will USD Fall to New Lows in 2018? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Markets are starting to return to full strength again, now that the holiday period has officially come to a close. The next moves in the US Dollar Index (DXY) could be significant in terms of their possibility to define the broader market trends seen for the remainder of this year. As we will see here, this did happen in 2017 and this does match the historical averages that develop in the USD when its value is compared to a basket of heavily traded currency counterparts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 11, 2018
US Dollar Could See Further Declines in Forex Markets / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
The US Dollar has had a tumultuous period over the last year, as optimism and pessimism have vied for broader control in the foreign exchange markets. Rallies in the stock market have emerged as the major victor, however, as investors seem to be reading the pro-growth agenda put forward by the Trump administration as a better precursor for improvements in corporate earnings (rather than in the US Dollar itself).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 30, 2017
US Dollar Index Monthly Chart / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
5 point broadening top in play with recent low at 91.01 likely the point 4 low. If correct, price now headed to point 5 high. Could even develop into very bearish 7 point broadening top in time.
Recent low around support from the 88.6% angle of the bullish Fibonacci Fan and the 76.4% angle from the bearish fan. Next resistance likely to be around the 88.6% angle from the bearish fan.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Three USD Markets Point One Way! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Enda_Glynn
Hi everyone,
We got an indication today of how much the idea of Bitcoin has penetrated society.
FOMC member Dudley says that the Fed is starting to think about its own digital currency.
I found that ironic,
Seen as the lions share of FIAT currency itself is digitally generated
through credit emission in the banking system and monetized government debts!
Simply put;
The USD is the biggest digital currency, and it dwarfs bitcoin by several orders of magnitude.
It seems that the FED itself does not realize its own game.
Monday, November 06, 2017
The US Dollar Reports of its death have been greatly exaggerated / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Plunger
In deference to Mark Twain, I will review the USD, general stock market, precious metals, the electric metals and various other topics. In the past two weeks Rambus has been so prolific with such high impact charts that I find it a challenge to offer value added material so I offer charts with some different perspectives.
USD-No I Am NOT Dead Yet!
Currencies tend to be a very emotional subject. I try to be objective when analyzing them, sticking to the language of the market and it’s message. It is always important to guard against the gold bug narrative, it can even influence our views of currencies. Demanding posts insisting the USD is toast and immediately headed towards history’s ash heap seem closely related to this gold bug narrative. The USD has spent the first 8 months of 2017 in a well defined downtrend, however it does not appear to be in a death spiral. Actually the shouting and insistence that it must continue down has been a fairly predictable sign that its move downward was reaching its limit. The dollar may have now completed a base and is set to continue its move higher. This is not dogma as it could reverse downward, but for now it’s making all the right moves if the trend is higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
US Dollar Breaks Out / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the outlook for the dollar, euro and precious metals sector after the predicted major dollar breakout occurs. Yesterday saw one of our most important predictions become reality—the dollar broke decisively out of its Head-and-Shoulders bottom. We can clearly see this breakout on the latest 6-month chart for the U.S. dollar index shown below. Fundamental reasons for this are believed to include the current (weak) trend to higher rates in the U.S., and perhaps more importantly, the euro starting to unravel if Catalonia succeeds in its push for independence from Spain. Whatever, this chart says the dollar index is going to advance to our target in the 97 area.
Sunday, October 29, 2017
Learn Why Axel Merk Sees Problems Ahead for the US Dollar… / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of Mark Investments, and author of the book Sustainable Wealth. Axel is a highly sought-after guest at financial conferences and on new outlets throughout the world, and it's great to have him on with us again. Axel, thanks for joining us today.
Axel Merk: Good to be with you.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
USDCHF Is Now In Uptrend From 0.9420 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Franco_Shao
USDCHF recently broke below the bottom support trend line of the price channel on its 4-hour chart, suggesting that the upside movement from 0.9420 had completed at 0.9836 already. Near term support is at 0.9704, a breakdown below this level could trigger another fall towards 0.9564.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
USD Intermediate Cycle update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
I need to see a bit more follow through confirmation in the days ahead, but it sure looks to me that the USD found support at the 50ma and found a short term Trading or Daily Cycle Low (TCL/ DCL) last Friday on day 24.
If I am correct, we are on day 1 of Trading Cycle #2 and this also means that the USD has found its longer term 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) back in early September near the 7 month mark. My first chart is a close up daily that shows the price action.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 02, 2017
The Fed’s Tightening Because the US Dollar Is in Big Trouble / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now, to welcome back our good friend David Morgan, of The Morgan Report. David, it's always a real pleasure to have you on with us. How are you, sir?
David Morgan: Mike, I'm doing well. Thank you for having me.
Mike Gleason: Well, first off, let's discuss what's been driving the recent pullback in your view. Gold was over $1,350 not too long ago and is now is decisively back under $1,300, as we're talking here on Wednesday afternoon. Silver has pulled back, and is moving toward the lower end of its year-long trading range, and has a 16 handle, once again. So what do you make of the recent market action, and what's behind it David?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 28, 2017
A New Challenge to the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
In a move that was little noticed outside of the financial world, China announced the creation of an oil futures contract (open to international traders) that will be denominated in Yuan and convertible into gold. This move provides the first official linkage of oil to gold, and more importantly a linkage between the Chinese currency and gold. While the contract volumes that will be traded on this new platform will certainly be minuscule in comparison to those in the dominant markets of New York and London (at least initially), I believe the move is the latest, and perhaps most significant, step that China has taken down the path that could lead to a global economic system that is not fully dependent on the U.S. dollar. The move amounts to a direct challenge to the dollar's privileged reserve status and could threaten U.S. dollar price erosion.
Monday, September 11, 2017
USDJPY Broke Below 108.13 Key Support / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Franco_Shao
USDJPY recently broke below a major support level at 108.13, indicating that the sideways movement in a trading range between 108.13 and 115.50 is complete and the downtrend from 118.66 has resumed.
Monday, September 11, 2017
The Big Unwinding / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Below is $USDJPY weekly, with $GOLD:$USD in the background. I am using $USD as the denominator for consistency.
Comments:
1. $USDJPY and $GOLD:$USD are inversely correlated
2. The long super cycle for $USDJPY is 180 months (or 15 years) low to low, and the half cycle harmonic is 90 months, low to low.
3. The long super cycle low bottomed in 2011, and its next low will be in 2026/27, which also coincides with the 5th K wave peak in commodities.
4. The 90 month half cycle also bottomed in 2011, with the 15 year super cycle. The next half cycle low will be in first half of 2019, followed by 2026/27, with the 5th K wave peak in commodities.
Saturday, September 09, 2017
Debt Ceiling Capitulation Spells Trouble Ahead for the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
“Frustration” no longer adequately describes what reformers in Congress – along with millions of investors and taxpayers who voted for reform – are feeling. For many, hopelessness is beginning to set in on the prospects for tax, budgetary, and monetary reform following Wednesday’s GOP capitulation on the debt ceiling.
Democrats shamelessly exploited the Hurricane Harvey disaster to couple the $7.85 billion disaster aid package with demands on unrelated issues in the budget. Congress didn’t pay for the bill with offsetting spending cuts, as the Club for Growth and other fiscal conservatives had urged.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 06, 2017
US Dollar Crashing, Gold Soars: Justuce at Last! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
As the North Korean crisis escalates, Tom Beck, founder of Portfolio Wealth Global, discusses the rise of gold and other metals.
North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan last Tuesday, sending gold to its highest level in 2017. Last month, we told you that Ray Dalio, the world's largest hedge fund manager, suggested holding up to 10% of your portfolio in gold, warning of rising risks.
It's time to effectively prepare for the best buying opportunities.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 31, 2017
Are You Ready to Profit From the US Dollar Collapse? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
The US Dollar collapse has already triggered a major move in inflation plays.
To whit, Gold has broken its SEVEN-YEAR downtrend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
The Coming US Dollar Collapse and How It Will Impact Portfolios / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday we talked about the US Dollar ($USD) dropping below critical support.
By quick way of review, here’s the key chart. As you can see, the $USD staged a large bull market run in 2014 as the Fed wound down its QE program. The greenback was then range bound for three years until this month when it broke down in a big way.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 29, 2017
USDJPY Is Facing Major Support At 108.13 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Franco_Shao
USDJPY moved sideways in a trading range between 108.13 and 115.50 for several months and is now facing the previous low support level at 108.13 once again.
Sunday, August 27, 2017
USD Super Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
My first chart is a 27 year Weekly showing a Fractal comparing the price action we are seeing today against the USD’s last Super Cycle top in 2001. The USD’s Super Cycles last 15 years Low to Low on average and my chart shows the critical role that the 200wma plays in the USD’s Bull and Bear phases.
Clearly, the USD is teetering at critical support right now as my chart shows what happened the last tine in 2002 when it lost this key, long term, moving average. My second weekly chart shows a close up of the current Fractal Blue box in my first chart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 24, 2017
New Eastern Energy Cartel Replacement To The Dead Petro-Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Petro-Dollar is dead. It had served so well for over 40 years in maintaining the USDollar as global currency reserve, while keeping tight the controls on geopolitical power. The link between crude oil and the USDollar has been broken, painfully evident since 2016 with a harsh price decline that cannot rise about the $50 level. It remains stuck below that level despite heavy collusion in a demonstration that OPEC is dead defunct also. A void has been created in the energy sector, a most important sector. Enter Russia & China to fill the void. Both the crude oil market and the natural gas market have new alliances which feature nations acting in a cooperative manner. The common element is Russia on the production side, complete with pipeline arrays.
Thursday, August 10, 2017
The Strange Fall of the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the exuberant Trump White House has been mugged by realities, US dollar is plunging to record lows.What a difference a year makes! Last November, US dollar hit its 13-year high. According to the US Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a basket of six other major currencies, the greenback soared to a peak of 103. By early August, US dollar is struggling around less than 93.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 03, 2017
US Dollar Testing Long Term Support / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Mike Golembesky : The U.S. Dollar has continued to fall hitting a low of 92.72 on Monday, July 31st. The U.S. Dollar also broke through shorter term support levels and is now closing in on long term support that could very well define the longer term trend over the next several years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 27, 2017
US Dollar - Make Way For Uncle Buck / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a contrarian trade that has not yet worked out; by that I mean my short position on the Euro and preparation for a firming US dollar. Yesterday the market cheered the supposedly dovish Fed, and USD got smeared again as the world’s counter party paper boosted assets far and wide… on nothing but perceptions and a hell of a lot of momentum and gaming on FOMC day.
USD opened weak again today but so far at least, is sporting a Hammer which, if it stays in play, would be a bullish reversal candle.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 27, 2017
The Fed May Influence the Bounce in USD / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
USD futures remain flat at this time. However, it may have reached its Head & Shoulders target and Master Cycle low today. The Fed action may have some influence on the bounce, since it is ready to do so.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 24, 2017
Last Chance For US Dollar To Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
I think we need to focus on what is happening to the dollar. The intermediate cycle is now 63 weeks long. Clearly that isn’t normal. I’ve maintained for several years that the end game was going to play out in the currency markets. There has to be consequences to printing trillions and trillions of currency units , and leaving interest rates at 0 for 8 years. I don’t think the consequences are going to be deflation. I think the end game will be inflation, just like it was in the 70’s, and just like it was in 2007 and 2008.
It’s taken a while to manifest as other countries have jumped into the game and turned on their printing presses as well, so the collapse in the currency I’ve been looking for has taken quite a while to unfold. The first leg down ended in 2008.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 20, 2017
The US Dollar Falls To New Lows, And So Do The Excuses To Explain It / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Mike Golembesky writes: The DXY Index, which is widely cited in the financial press as the "Dollar" or "US Dollar," has seen a correction that began in January of this year after topping at the 103.82 level, and has continued into this week's (Tues July 18) low, which came in at 94.48. This represents a move of just under 9%, which in the currency markets is not a small move.
Friday, July 14, 2017
Yellen’s Shocking Announcement:The $USD is TOAST / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
Fed Chair Janet Yellen just announced that the Fed will be kicking the $USD off a cliff.
She didn’t use those words, but the words she did use weren’t all that different.
But first a little context…
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
Down Dollar Down: Time for "UP"? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
Don't rely on after-the-fact headlines. Our charts and forecasts explain how we got here -- and where we're going.
Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Stage Analysis Gold and US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
This post will use Weinsteins Stage Analysis to examine where we are in both Gold and the USD. For this analysis, I will use Weekly charts and highlight the Weekly 30ema as a guidepost for our analysis.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=394282
First lets start with a bit of History and go back to 1998 to 2002 to examine the transition in Gold and the HUI from Stage 4 Bear, to Stage 1 Basing to Stage 2 Bull Market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 11, 2017
USDJPY Time for a Minor Correction / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: n/a. USD: JOLTS Job Openings, FOMC Member Brainard Speaks.
Wednesday, July 05, 2017
US Dollar Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I just listened to an interview with Martin Armstrong on YouTube about what to expect from the world financial arena. As much as I respect him, I cannot agree with what he says concerning (1) the direction of the US Dollar and (2) its impact on equities. Of course, his research is far deeper than mine, so I defer on that count. However, The best analysis that I have is that the USD may continue to decline (should I say collapse?) in the near term. That does not bode well for either domestic stocks or bonds.
Sunday, July 02, 2017
USD Intermediate Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
Cycle Status/Outlook: Long term I believe the USD found a 15 Year Super Cycle top in early 2015. To confirm this we need to see the USD find a Yearly Cycle Low soon and bounce high enough to break the YC down trend line on my first chart, a three year weekly that shows Price has dropped below my Blue 2014 uptrend line and now the 30ema is starting to roll over and should start to cap rallies acting as resistance rather than support.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 29, 2017
USD Intermediate Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
USD Cycle Status/Outlook: Short term is a bit cloudy but my preferred count is day 10. Longer term, it is clear that the USD is still seeking out its Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). If my last ICL is correct, we are now nearing the 5 month timeframe is a normal 5-6 mont ICL timing band.
Once the YCL is found, my expectations are that future rallies will be still be corrective in nature against the longer term cycle trend which should now be down. Out of the next ICL, the next IC High should be a lower high.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 25, 2017
Dollar May Become “Local Currency of the U.S.” Only / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we’ll hear part one of an amazing two-part interview with Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars, The New Case for Gold and The Road to Ruin. Jim shares his insights on the Fed’s supposed plan to unwind its balance sheet and what it will mean for the economy and for gold prices. He’ll discuss some potential fireworks involving the U.S. dollar as it continues losing its reserve currency status. Don’t miss a must-hear interview with Jim Rickards, coming up after this week’s market update.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 16, 2017
USDJPY Still Under Pressure / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Franco_Shao
USDJPY stays below the bearish trend line from 111.71 to 110.81 with resistance at around 110.20 on its 4-hour chart, suggesting that the pair remains in bearish movement from the May 11 high of 114.36. As long as the pair is below the trend line, the bearish move could be expected to continue, and next target would be at the April 17 low of 108.13. A breakdown below 108.13 support will indicate that the longer term downtrend from the December 2016 high of 118.66 has resumed, then the pair will find next support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from the June 2016 low of 98.97 to 118.66 at around 106.50.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 15, 2017
The US Dollar Bull Case / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
I see just about everyone has their own theory or trading discipline on where the US dollar is headed next. It’s all these different ideas that make the markets work. Everyone can’t be bullish at the bottom or bearish at the top, it’s just the way it has to be.
For my 2 cents worth I’m still looking at the possible fractal, bullish rising wedge as a halfway pattern to the upside. I did an in depth report on currencies and the US dollar several months ago in which I showed how it could play out. Since that report the US dollar has declined down to the point, where if the fractal is going to work, now is the time for the US dollar to put in its bottom.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 22, 2017
US Dollar 3 Year Cycle Low Charts / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
The dollar is now 4 days into its final bloodbath phase. This phase usually lasts 5-7 days. We should get a bottom this week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 21, 2017
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
I thought I would start off this weekend by recapping one of the most important aspects of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Theory. Very simply put, it is that Longer Cycles almost always dominate the shorter Cycles. This is Huge because if you understand where you are in the Longer Cycles, trading the shorter ones becomes much easier.
Is the USD really topping here? This is an extremely importing Cycle call here because if it is, Gold and the broader Commodity Complex may well be ready to become much more bullish going forward. There is no doubt that the USD has been very bullish since 2014 but this post and related charts will provide you with why a trend change maybe upon us.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 15, 2017
Trump Rally or Geopolitical Meltdown: Currency Management for Dollar Risk / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
The dollar index, which measures the strength of the U.S. currency against a basket of other major currencies, hit a 14-year high on January 3rd of this year. The USD’s reinvigorated bull run after Donald Trump was elected as Barrack Obama’s successor as President of the U.S.A, on expectations for major infrastructure spending and tax cuts during his mandate, has featured prominently in the news. However, the U.S. dollar has more quietly been on an extended rally for a few years now and despite its worst January in 30 years since that early post-New Year peak, many analysts expect that to continue over 2017.
Thursday, May 11, 2017
The USD is Going Higher from Here... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zach
Got a great set-up here on the $USD index for readers of The Market Oracle.The USD will be going higher from here. How do I know? - The charts are
talking (screaming infact) to us!
So, let's take a look at the UUP DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts...
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 01, 2017
Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Enda_Glynn
My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: EU Economic Forecasts. USD: Treasury Sec Mnuchin Speaks, Personal Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Sunday, April 23, 2017
USD Cycle Update - 23rd April / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
This Update will provide both a near term and long term update on the USD an where I think it stands in its short and long term cycles. My first two charts are the same near term daily chart. The first provides my cycle counts for the past 6 Trading Cycles. The second shows a potential Blue Fork Channel that should hold it. USD did find a TC low on day 17 last week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 03, 2017
USD and Gold: Intermediate and Super Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
Beyond the 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle and Yearly Cycle (2-3 Intermediate Cycle), there are also longer Cycles for all assets. Gold for example has a 4 Year Cycle and the USD has a 3 Year Cycle (measured Low to Low). The USD also has a 15 Year Super Cycle (5 of its 3 Year Cycles).
I have stated that my longer term Cycle analysis indicates the USD should be making its 15 Year Super Cycle top in 2017 but I am not sure just yet if this is behind us or dead ahead. As always, the Price and Time action on the charts will guide me. For now the Wedge in my first chart needs to be watched closely over the next couple of weeks. A break to the upside of my Red down trend line will confirm a new Intermediate Cycle for the USD while a more serious breach of my Blue Uptrend line that goes all the way back to early 2014 would have me strongly consider that the 15 year top is in.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 02, 2017
Time to Repair the Deflating US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tony_Caldaro
Every century the US has been existence there has been a new USD. And we believe it is time for a new US Dollar in the 21st century. In the following paragraphs we hope to explain why this is required, and how this could be accomplished in the coming years. First a little history.
In the 18th century (1792) the US established the first USD with the one ounce Silver coin. There was no paper currency only Silver and Gold coins. The US was on a Silver standard, and one ounce of Silver was worth $1.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 30, 2017
USD May Stay Soft in Near Term / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Although the Fed is in the rate hike cycle, USD rally started to lose momentum early this year when market started to realize that monetary policy divergence started to narrow. ECB has started to talk about rate hikes, while China started to tighten monetary policy by raising money market rates early last month. The Fed also sounded less hawkish in their last rate hike as they forecasted only three rate hikes this year and no Fed members agreed to hike rate four times.
Tuesday, March 28, 2017
US Dollar and Gold Dumb Market Myths About to Go Up in Smoke… / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
Everywhere I look I see talk of a major $USD bull market being underway. I see this coming from CNBC as well as so-called “investment gurus.”
This is odd… because the $USD is DOWN against every major currency thus far in 2017.
I’m not making this up. The $USD is DOWN against the Yen, the Euro, the Swiss Franc, even the British pound.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 27, 2017
Top Ten US Dollar Risks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The USDollar has never been in greater danger for losing its dominant position as global reserve currency and payment standard. Challenges to its supremacy are many and with each passing month, more threats are put in place. While the volumes of trade payment in Chinese RMB grow slowly, and the banking reserves in non-USD bonds grow slowly, the risk for the USDollar to be marginalized has increased significantly in the last two to three years. Basically speaking, a fiat currency run by a corrupt, thieving, and dishonorable hegemonic regime for the sole purpose of exploiting the rest of the world cannot stand the test of time, and will be dismantled. The community of nations gathers momentum and organization with producing an alternative. It has taken time, and will require more time. The scenario is indeed possible of a dual universe has been raised, whereby the West continues under the USD-based system, and the East emerges under a new RMB-based system. However, the Eastern alternative is step by step to emerge with a gold foundation. The USDollar cannot compete with Gold in any way except through continued fraud, intimidation, extortion, and open war. All these topics at high level and ground level are covered with analysis in the Hat Trick Letter.
Monday, March 27, 2017
US Dollar Inflection Point / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
This is the first of several updates this weekend and I thought I would start with the USD.
This update has four Charts on the USD starting with longer term charts and then moving in for a close up view on the current price action. My first chart is a long term 20 year weekly chart that shows the USD's breakout above the downtrend line from it's last top in 2001. This chart also shows the current uptrend channel out of the 2008 Low (Green and Orange lines).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 21, 2017
USD Decline Continues, Pull SPX Down as well? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
USD futures are still on the move as the dollar declined to a low of 99.59 this morning. We are still looking for the expected master Cycle low, but it is late in coming.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 10, 2017
Monitoring Rising USD Patterns / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
As we approach Friday's US jobs report, deemed by some as instrumental in determining the already surging odds of a Fed hike next week (and by others as irrelevant), here are a few USD notes worthy of consideration. The 6-currency basket USDX is entering its 5th straight consecutive weekly gain, the longest string of rallies since the 6-weekly gains seen on Dec 2014-Jan 2015 when the Fed ended QE3. Interestingly, we haven't had many uninterrupted weekly USD gains. Here are the most recent ones.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 08, 2017
Trump's Monetary Intervention, A Repeat of the Plaza Accord / Currencies / US Dollar
By: STRATFOR
Forecast
- A strong dollar will undermine U.S. President Donald Trump's plans to reduce the United States' trade deficit.
- If the dollar's value continues to rise, Trump may consider unilateral or, failing that, multilateral currency interventions to bring it back down.
- Negotiating a new coordinated monetary intervention in the spirit of the 1985 Plaza Accord will be onerous, however.
Monday, February 27, 2017
US Dollar Rolling Over / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
A close below the 10 DMA on the US Dollar would be the “second step” in the confirmation that its daily cycle is rolling over and starting the next leg down in the intermediate decline. The first confirmation was the initial break of the daily cycle up trend line.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
What is Trump's US Dollar Policy? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
The United States Treasury Department has supported a strong dollar policy since its inception in 1789. Period. There were no qualifications or equivocations with that stance, especially since the ascendance of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. That's why it was so highly unusual when the newly confirmed Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, uttered this quote recently: "From time to time an excessively strong dollar could have a negative short-term effect on the economy."
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 13, 2017
US Dollar: 'Rumors of My Death are Greatly Exaggerated' / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today I would like to update the US dollar as its been testing critical support since breaking out from the nearly 2 year horizontal trading range in early November of last year. The daily line chart shows there was a nice clean backtest about a month later to the top rail which looked like breaking out and backtesting process was complete. After a short rally and making a higher high the US dollar declined once more to the top rail causing a lot of uncertainty for many traders. After a slight breach of the top rail the US dollar is now trading back above that very important trendline. So far at this point there is nothing to conclude the bull market that started in 2011 is over at least accordingly to the daily line chart.
Friday, February 10, 2017
USD and Gold Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
Just a quick update on the USD and Gold. Todays move by the USD finally seemed to put a pause in the relentless uptrend by Gold and the Miners. I have the USD on day 6 now in what is very clearly a new short term Trading Cycle.
My cycle analysis indicates that this USD Trading Cycle uptrend should top out sometime in the next two days if it is to be a Left Translated cycle that fails. If it does not, this would be an early warning that the USD may have also found its longer term Intermediate Cycle Low as well.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 08, 2017
USD Rolling Over, SPX Weakening / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
USD futures are fading this morning as a smaller overnight retracement failed to exceed yesterday’s high at 100.69.
ZeroHedge reports, “We're going to need another Fed speaker...
Harker comments overnight on March being live spiked the Dollar...
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 08, 2017
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
John Grandits : A key pillar of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, and now policy formation, is an “America First” approach. So far, this has entailed much discussion around negotiating more favorable trade deals, withdrawing from possible participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, citing potential currency manipulators, and construction of a wall along the Mexican border, to name a few.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 08, 2017
U.S. Dollar Exorbitant Privilege At Risk?! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
If the road to hell is paved with good intentions, American's exorbitant privilege might be at risk with broad implications for the U.S. dollar and investors' portfolios. Let me explain.
Wednesday, February 08, 2017
US Dollar Breaks below USD100 with Rising Yields, is Wholesale US Treasury Dump Coming? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Lee
The US Dollar Index has fallen below the psychological 100 level, while 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields remain above multi-year support levels. This is despite the Federal Open Market Committee keeping the Federal Funds rate steady at 0.75% on Feb 1, 2017.
Sunday, February 05, 2017
Why Trump’s Economic Justice Warriors Will Crash The US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
For the last eight years we’ve seen the rise of the Social Justice Warriors (SJW’s), as they had lobbied their man, Obama, for the political power required to direct the force of government in the name of their own peculiarly relativist brand of “social justice.”
While they are still busy demonstrating the violent soul of what is inherent in all brands of statism by breaking storefront windows (masked), under the Trump epoch a new type of statist “warrior” has emerged… let’s call them the Economic Justice Warriors (EJW’s).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 05, 2017
US Dollar Bulls Surrender? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
The US dollar has now closed lower for 6 weeks in a row which is testing the patience of the bulls. This week the price action cracked the top rail of the horizontal trading range which is a negative, but not confirmation yet the trend has reversed down. There are several more layers of support that will need to be hit before I throw up the white flag and surrender to the bears.
Friday, February 03, 2017
Forex Trading Alert: USD Index at Fresh Lows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the USD Index extended losses against the basket of the major currencies as yesterday's Fed statement didn't give clear signal on the timing of its next rate hike. How did this drop affect the technical picture of EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:
EUR/USD: none
GBP/USD: none
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none
Friday, February 03, 2017
The US Dollar is About to Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
The $USD is about to collapse.
This is not fear mongering, nor is it just a bold statement. The $USD has peaked and is about to breakdown in a BIG way.
See for yourself, the greenback has taken out critical support. The spike higher that occurred starting election night is looking more and more like a bullish headfake.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 30, 2017
US Dollar Chartathon / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
In this Weekend Report I'm going to show you some updated charts on the US dollar which has been in a bull market since the low in 2011. It's hard for a lot of investors to admit, but until the charts change the bull market continues. A bull market is characterized by a series of consolidation patterns forming one top of the next, until the last pattern is a reversal pattern which reverses the bull trend. The old expression, the trend is your friend, also applies to the US dollar as well. Until the US dollar negates the series of higher highs and higher lows on an intermediate term basis, we have to assume the bull market is in tact.
Lets start by looking at a daily line chart for the US dollar which shows the horizontal trading range beginning back in March of 2015. The breakout topside of the horizontal trading range took place a little over 2 months ago in November of last year. After the initial breakout there was the initial backtest which could have been the beginning of the next impulse move up, but the US dollar stalled out a month later and is currently backtesting the top rail around the 100 area again.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 27, 2017
Lala Land FX Assumptions / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The notion that Trump's planned protectionist measures (tariffs and border adjustment tax) will be USD-positive is founded on an unrealistic world - where Mexico, China and other US trading partners would just sit back and watch without any retaliatory action. We're not in the 1980s or 1990s when US trading partners operated in a closed world, unaccountable to any world free trade bodies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 19, 2017
The Most Important Market Chart on the Planet / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today I would like to update you on the US dollar as it plays such an important role in so many different markets. Getting the big trend right on the US dollar can help you see what areas are affected by the dollar to invest in. There are alot of areas that have an inverse correlation to the dollar, such as commodities and the precious metals in particular.
Let start with just with just a simple daily line chart that shows the two year sideways trading range with the breakout and the backtest that is currently underway. As you can see this is actually the 2nd backtest to the top rail at the 100 area so there is no question the top rail is hot.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 19, 2017
USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Enda Glynn wries: My Bias: neutral- long
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Short term wave count: wave [iii] grey
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Wednesday, January 18, 2017
Donald & the US Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
By: Antonius_Aquinas
John Connally, President Nixon’s Secretary of the Treasury, once remarked to the consternation of Europe’s financial elites over America’s inflationary monetary policy, that the dollar “is our currency, but your problem.” Times have certainly changed and it now appears that the dollar has become an American problem.
In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, the soon to be 45th President of the United States believes that the greenback’s strength – up some 25% against a broad basket of currencies since 2014 – is now “too strong,” “killing us,” and has hurt companies trying to compete overseas.* A top Trump economics advisor, Anthony Scaramucci, reinforced his boss’ sentiment adding that “we must be careful of a rising dollar.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 18, 2017
Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Soar As Trump’s Comments Cause US Dollar To Plummet / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
We have stated that Donald Trump would be the cause of a barrage of news and market movements.
He’s not even President yet and it has already begun.
In a Friday interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the US dollar, which touched a more-than 14-year high about two weeks ago, has gotten “too strong,” against the Chinese yuan. He told the WSJ, “Our companies can’t compete with them now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 18, 2017
Long USD... Another Crowded Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I just sent out a reference from ZeroHedge on the unusual number of VIX shorts there are. In other words, a very crowded trade.
That reminded me that an even more crowded trade is the USD longs.
ZeroHedge had this to say, “Until last night's Trump statement that the US dollar is overvalued, it was smooth sailing for Wall Street's momentum chasers, who happily piled into what until recently was Wall Street's most crowded trade. How crowded?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
US Dollar – The Big Picture / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continues to strengthen following very positive long-term bullish price behavior. Although retracements will be seen in the short-term, upward pressure should remain for some time.
Classic bullish trend continuation price behavior:
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 01, 2017
Is China About to Demand the US Dollar Lose Reserve Currency Status? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
The biggest issue in the financial system… the issue that CNBC is completely avoiding… and 99% of professionals are ignoring is the US DOLLAR.
The US Dollar has ripped to 103.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 17, 2016
From Unloved & Unwanted to George Washington on Steroids: The U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
From Unloved & Unwanted to George Washington on Steroids: The U.S. Dollar
Chart of the Day
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Rising US Dollar, Rising Global Risks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Steinbock
As US dollar hitting record highs, it is no longer a sign of global recovery but also becoming the world’s premier fear gauge and global risk.Recently, US dollar hit its 13-year high. According to the ICE Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a basket of six other currencies, soared to 100.6, its peak since April 2003. In view of analysts, US dollar is fueled by rising government bond yields (and the Fed’s anticipated rate hike), and expectations of Trump’s fiscal expansion (infrastructure stimulus).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 07, 2016
Time To Short the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The dollar rally has been led in hopes of the FED tightening rates in December of 2016. While most of the other developed nations are still struggling with low inflation, the U.S.Government provided data that has been largely supportive of a rate hike.
The sharp rise in the dollar had taken it to extreme levels against the EURO, as shown in the Bloomberg chart below.The reversal was due, as evidenced by the RSI, however, the fall has been more vicious and looks like a correction, rather than a mere pullback.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 27, 2016
The Twists and Turns of the Greenback / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Steve_H_Hanke
At a monetary conference in Vienna back in 2014, the distinguished Frenchman, friend, and occasional collaborator Jacques de Larosière proclaimed that the current world monetary order should be termed an “anti-system.” He has a point – an important point. Among other things, such an anti-system invites an enormous amount of instability, as well as uninformed loose talk that influences public opinion and policy.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 24, 2016
Is China About to Go “Scorched Earth” on the US Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
China’s currency, the Chinese Yuan, remains pegged to the US Dollar. So when the US Dollar strengthens, the Chinese Yuan strengthens to.
For an economy as rife with garbage debt as China (shadow banking debt is over 200% of GDP), this is a DISASTER.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 09, 2016
US Dollar Crawl / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
The US Dollar has been crawling along its rising 110 weekly moving average. This is not a bullish pattern and suggests a fall down to the US Dollar’s next lower support zone.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 04, 2016
The End of US Dollar Dominance? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The end of U.S. dollar dominance may be unfolding in front of our eyes. No, we don't think China's ascent is the key threat; instead, key to understanding the U.S. dollar may be to understand the money market fund you might hold. Let me explain what's unfolding in front of our eyes, and what it might mean for the U.S. dollar and global markets.
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Is a Dollar Crash Imminent After the Senate Overrides Obama Veto on Saudi 9/11 Bill? / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Jason_Hamlin
President Obama just had his first veto override of his entire presidency today, as the Senate and House both voted to override his veto of the 9/11 victims bill, Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). As of this moment, the Sept 11 bill is now law.
Intense lobbying by both the Obama Administration and the Saudi government didn’t amount to much in the end, with strong public support leading to a 97-1 veto override vote today. The long defector from the unanimous vote back in May was Sen. Harry Reid (D – NV). The House easily cleared the two-thirds threshold with a 348-77 vote.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 09, 2016
2017 Will Be a Good Year for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : If you go back to the 1990s, during the Clinton years, the US followed an explicit strong dollar policy. Every time you got Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin in front of a microphone, he said the US had a strong dollar policy.
And guess what? The dollar was strong.
What are the benefits of a strong dollar?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
USDU - An Important Perspective on the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
We started following this US dollar index about a year or so ago which has a more equal weighting of different currencies than the $USD. Even though I don’t post it much this Alternative US dollar index has some very interesting Chartology on it which may be giving us an important clue as to the intentions of the Dollar .
If you recall the Standard US dollar index ($USD) was testing a major inflection point in May around the 92 area earlier this year. It did finally bottom but left some unfinished business behind. This is the daily chart I was following at the time for the USDU which shows the H&S top in place and the decline that took the price action down to the low at the 25.50 area. From that low the USDU began a decent rally but couldn’t trade above the neckline extension line at reversal point #2 before the bears took charge again. The bulls were able to stop the decline at reversal point #3 and a laborious rally took the USDU back up to the top of the trading range where the neckline extension line came into play again along with the 200 day moving average.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 03, 2016
US Dollar Analysis And New Trading Opportunity / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Investor optimism in stocks is becoming more widespread. Last week’s NAAIM Exposure Index rose to 101, which is the highest level since December of 2013. The trading sentiment composite has moved to a “Sell Signal” and last week saw an 11 on the VIX. Excessive optimism is universal.
We are entering an interesting time of the year for investors. Is this stock market going to break out to the upside and rally to further new highs, or will this latest lull be followed by a painful reversal of fortune? Historically, the August/September timeframe is the “Danger Zone” for the stock market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 31, 2016
US Dollar Set For Massive Smackdown / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
The US Dollar Index price action has played out exactly as forecast in recent subscriber analysis. That analysis reduced the price expectation for the bear rally and the recent high of 97.62 was a bingo hit.Let’s review the technicals beginning with the daily chart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 28, 2016
U.S. Dollar Bear Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
The first stage in a bear market begins with a severe drop below the 200 day moving average. This serves as the shot across the bow warning. Then there is usually at least one more attempt to recover the 200. When it fails the bear market starts in earnest. The dollar has dropped below the 200 this morning.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
EUR-USD : Strong Jobs Numbers Suggest Fed Reluctance to Raise US Interest Rates / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Options Shark writes: In spite of currently dismal employment numbers, Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair, has announced that federal interest rates will increase. Economists expect to see changes as late as September or July of this year; some believe the rate could be raised as much as twice. Prior to December, the federal interest rate was a steady 0% for the previous seven years; the current rate is 0.5%. The raise in December was monumental after the economy steadily climbed thanks to the central bank’s decision to lower the rate to zero.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 08, 2016
Fed Stance Likely to Pressure US Dollar, GBP Chart View / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Cox
Financial markets always have an overriding story and if we look at the news headlines that have been generated over the last few months, we can see that the focus is once again back on the Federal Reserve. Market opinions are still sharply divided: If incoming data is consistent with labor market conditions strengthening, an interest rate hike could be foreseen sooner than we think.
Friday, June 03, 2016
US Dollar Crashes, Gold And Bitcoin Skyrocket As Economic Recovery Lie Is Exposed / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
It’s going to be a long weekend for those holding stocks and believing in the “recovery” lie.
Today, the US government released its jobs report and the market was expecting an additional 200,000 jobs were added in May. Instead, the number came in at a paltry 38,000.
One analyst, Naseem Aslam of Think Forex UK said, “The U.S. nonfarm payroll data was crazy and completely unbelievable and this is the last set of important data before the Fed meeting. When you look at the data set, it really boggles your mind because the unemployment rate has ticked lower. The productivity picture is even more confusing as it is not increasing.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 02, 2016
Dollar Bubble: The Three Reasons The US Dollar Will Soon Crash / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
The Dollar Vigilante’s Senior Analyst, Ed Bugos, is a genius… but he’s also somewhat of a recluse.
While we have gotten access to his incredible written insights for the last six years in The Dollar Vigilante newsletter, he has always shied away from the public spotlight. Until now!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Precisely Wrong on US Dollar, Gold? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Since the beginning of the year, the greenback has shown it's not almighty after all; and gold - the barbarous relic as some have called it - may be en vogue again? Where are we going from here and what are the implications for investors?
Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Watching for an Undercut Bottom in the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
Undercut bottom in the dollar coming next? Maybe.
Currencies are tricky SOB’s. Be aware we may still get one more drop to form an undercut low and catch shorts on the wrong side of the market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 03, 2016
US Dollar Index on the Brink as Dollar Meltdown Continues - Video / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mario_Innecco
Transcript Excerpt: Tuesday May 3rd 2016 yes around 8:40 a.m. London time or 340 New York
time I'm gonna be talking currencies this morning as the dollar continues to
to drop you know quite quite sharply I had been covering the yen and how that's
been appreciating quite strongly against the dollar despite the fact that the BOJ
stepped up especially knowing the end of February stepped up their cue we and a
negative interest rates but this morning I will be talking a little bit the
dollar index dollar index is basically weights and measures the dollar against
a basket of currencies and this basket is composed of the following 57.6% euro
30.6% Japanese yen 11.9% British Pound 9.1% Canadian dollar four point to.
Monday, May 02, 2016
USD Still Declining... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
USD is plummeting lower today. This is keeping USD/JPY suppressed, even though the Yen is not rallying at the moment.
Bloomberg reports, “After falling for three months, the dollar is set to rebound, if this historical seasonal chart is any guide.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback versus 10 peers, has appreciated in May in every year but one since 2007, according to a Bloomberg Seasonality Chart. That’s the best record among the 12 months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 02, 2016
USD, Yen and an ‘Inflation Trade’ Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Fed has been trying to promote inflation. That is not the guy with the tin foil hat speaking, it is direct from FOMC statements targeting a higher inflation level, which is another way of saying they are targeting a lower US dollar level. From this we leaned toward that which would benefit from a declining USD. Precious metals (led by silver) are a prime beneficiary, with oil and some commodities remaining firm despite pressure on stock markets as corporate performance and economic signals continue to fade.
Friday, April 29, 2016
US Dollar Meltdown Underway as Fed Credibility Evaporates - Video / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mario_Innecco
Transcript Excerpt: It's Friday April 29 2016 early here in london it's nine o'clock in the
morning so 4 a.m. New York time while in the us- and I'm making this video just
to talk about the dollar but the galleries crashing you most people and
even I have focused on the dollar yen on the yen been strong but you know we've
broken through the lows of the year and we had the lowest level since October
2014 that the dollars at 107 12 right now against the yen we had a key support
which was to prove you know earlier this month the low one of seven sixty and we
went down way to 10 689 and you know there's talk about that the Bank of Japan
Sunday, April 24, 2016
US Dollar Price Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Is the US Dollar in a new bull market or is it about to crash? Opinions seem divided on this issue and mine is a mixture of both depending which time frame is used.
Let's begin the analysis with the short term outlook followed by some big picture analysis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 21, 2016
US To Paint New Pictures On Its Dying, Barbarous Relic of a Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
In a letter to the American tax slaves, US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew “the Loon” has presented his plan to replace some of the images on the dwindling $20, $10 and $5 Federal Reserve Notes. Slave emancipator, Harriet Tubman, will replace Andrew Jackson on the $20, leaders of the suffrage movement will go on the $10 and images of the Lincoln Memorial will go on the $5.
You’d think with the US government being $19 trillion in debt they’d have bigger priorities than artwork.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
USD is a Puzzle. I may have a Solution / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
There is a lot not to like about this Wave structure, but it may be that the decline is finished. The decision to take this opinion is based on several factors. But the main one was the following Bloomberg article that caught my eye: “Hedge funds are close to calling it quits on the dollar’s best run in a generation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 06, 2016
USD Breaking Down / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
USD made a new low at 94.25 in what may be the last probe lower in wave 3. There is a strong likelihood of it declining further to its Bearish Pennant minimum low of 93.93. The USD/JPY pair has sunk below 110.00 for the first time since last October.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
US Dollar Important Chart / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Last week I showed you this potential H&S top forming on the USDU which is a more evenly balanced index for the US dollar which actually trades as an ETF.
http://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/fund-details-currency.aspx?etfid=91
I built this chart using a line chart and then leaving the trendlines in place I converted to a bar chart. As you can see it has been backtesting the neckline for the last week or so along with the 200 dma. This chart shows a reversal pattern which sets up a downtrend of some kind. This is an important development.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
U.S. Dollar Outlook: Peak Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Is the dollar's seemingly relentless rise in recent years coming to an end? What are the implications not only for the greenback, but other currencies and markets around the world?
Saturday, March 12, 2016
US Dollar Strength is a Manifestation of US Dollar Shortage / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gordon_T_Long
FRA Co-Founder Gordon T.Long and Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investment Partners discuss a broad array of Global Macro subjects in this 48 minute video discussion with supporting slides.
As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at Canisius College. After graduating in 1996 with a Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Jeff took over the operations of that firm while adding to the portfolio management and stock research process.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 10, 2016
The US Dollar, What If Everybody is Wrong ? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
It’s been awhile since we last looked at the US dollar which has been consolidating its big impulse move up. The reason I haven’t posted it much is because it’s stuck in a sideways trading range going back over a year now.
99.9% of Market participants are either Bullish the Dollar , with all the implications including Lower Gold Prices or Bearish the Dollar, with the opposite implications .
However there are not two but THREE possible outcomes to this present trading range.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 22, 2016
US Dollar and The Global 'Peg Pain Trade' / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gordon_T_Long
Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long analyze, with 25 slides, the strength in the US Dollar and what we can likely expect going forward.
Both see a strong dollar in the future as it becomes, more and more a flight to safety associated with failed monetary / fiscal policies, weakening current accounts and slowing trade around the world. It isn't that the US$ is a paragon of virtue and value, but rather the "least ugly".
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 05, 2016
Pity the USD longs! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
An opinion by ZeroHedge on this morning’s payroll report caught my attention. They opine, “The most obvious reaction to the "great" drop in the unemployment rate and "huge miss" in payrolls is a rise (yes rise) in rate-hike odds for 2016. This appears to be why the Dollar is spiking and bonds, stocks, crude, gold and everything else is being sold...”
Unfortunately the USD retracement is losing momentum at 97.24, just above mid-Cycle support/resistance at 96.99.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 22, 2016
Ron Paul Says to Watch the Petrodollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Casey_Research
By Nick Giambruno
The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better. - Ron Paul
Ron Paul is calling for the end of the petrodollar system. This system is one of the main reasons the U.S. dollar is the world’s premier reserve currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
US Dollar Drop to Trendline Likely / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
The dollar is "crawling" along its 60 dma. When it breaks and closes below the drop into the intermediate cycle low will begin.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 09, 2016
The Impact of a Strong U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
Impressive drivers continue to surface for the U.S. dollar. And the impact lingers on many fronts.
One measure is the recent positive U.S. jobs report. This adds to the dollar's already bullish tone as it dials up pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates in the months ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 03, 2016
USDJPY Pullback Continues / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
The 2015 high at 125.85 played out as expected we now have a bear trend playing out. Let’s review the daily and monthly charts.
USDJPY DAILY CHART
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ed_Carlson
DXY fell 0.72% last week and closed at 98.01 (below the 13-dma) after printing an engulfing bearish candlestick on Friday. 14-day RSI was unable to stay above its 20-dma during the previous week’s rally and 3-day RSI remains below 80; bearish. Not surprisingly, DXY looks similar to the pattern in TNX – the interest rate on the ten-year treasury.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 24, 2015
U.S. Dollar Will be Biggest Casualty of Lower Oil Prices - Video / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mario_Innecco
Transcript Excerpt - hi it's Thursday December 24th Christmas Eve 2015 and can be speaking about the
USDollar and how it's gonna be the biggest casualty lower oil prices and
commodity prices that we've seen for the last over 12 months you know last 18
months that will lead you know to make him in other currencies because the
dollar is the global reserve currency so one of the major while the major reason
why I think the Dalby the biggest casualty is because back in the
seventies after 1971 when president nixon to the dollar off the Bretton
Woods system with which was a Gold Exchange System gold back system in
august of nineteen seventy-one then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger he
put it to you with the saudi government
Saudi Arabian royal family whatever you wanna call it they put a deal that Saudi
Arabia which was accumulating a lot of dollar reserves and a lot of foreign
Thursday, December 10, 2015
EURUSD Final Bear Rally Leg Underway / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Price recently traded down to support outlined in previous analysis before reversing and trading higher in impulsive style. While a turn back up was expected in order for the bear rally to embark on the final leg higher, this move was on the back of the ECB announcement.
There is always a reason for a move and the market does indeed work in mysterious ways. Some will say this was just a lucky coincidence and I must admit I don't truly understand it. However, what I do understand is that I have seen this type of stuff happen on too many occasions for it to be just a coincidence.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 04, 2015
US Dollar Index Technical Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
The US Dollar index has made marginal new highs which I believe will turn out to be a false break top. Let's take a top down approach beginning with the monthly chart.
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
U.S. Dollar Remains the reserve currency of the world for a good reason / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bloomberg
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew spoke with Brendan Greeley on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. Lew discussed how government can address the lack of access to banking in the United States, financial services' rules and regulations and the benefits of Dodd-Frank.
On the IMF elevated the Chinese yuan, Lew said: "The U.S. dollar remains the reserve currency of the world for a good reason." He added: "We've also had long, ongoing discussions with China about their currency practices. They have made commitments to us that will not intervene in ways that are unfair. And those are important commitments. And they know that we're going to hold them to those commitments."
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Triggers In US Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
To be sure, groups of oil rags are accumulating in the Western financial basement. They await an incident to light them on fire to produce the grandest bonfire in modern history. Many incidents, events, and decisions created the current broken untenable wrecked set of conditions that together comprise the structural breakdown, upon which systemic failure is witnessed each day. The 1990 decade saw the creation of bank derivatives, which compensated for Western bank system insolvency. It was the dirty secret in backfire from a decade of outsourcing US industry to the Pacific Rim. The refusal by Greenspan to permit a recession early in the 2000 decade interrupted a normal housing correction, and initiated another credit stimulus. The result was the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis which will forever bear the Greenspan signature. The Lehman Brothers killjob was important to force the big Western banks to share the load, to tie (lash) themselves together, and to assure the systemic failure in an inexorable march to ruin. The LIBOR rate scandal confirmed that the London hive did not produce honey, but rather scum and dross.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
USD, XEU, CRB, DBC, Oil, Copper and Gold Chartology of Deflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to update some of the charts on the possible inflection point we looked at about three weeks or so ago. That possible inflection point is still gaining momentum to the downside as the deflationary environment still looks good to go. No market goes straight up or down so one needs to expect some turbulence along the way.
In order for the deflationary theme to play out we will need to see a strong US dollar which will affect the commodities complex and other important currencies of the world. Below is a closeup view for the US dollar that now shows the bullish falling wedge in breakout mode with one backtest to the top rail so far.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
The US Dollar Rally Could Trigger a $9 Trillion Debt Implosion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
The US Dollar rally, combined with the ECB’s policies and the Fed’s hint at raising rates in December, is at risk of blowing up a $9 trillion carry trade.
When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008, it flooded the system with US Dollars. The US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. NO matter what country you’re in (with few exceptions) you can borrow in US Dollars.
And if you can borrow in US Dollars at 0.25%… and put that money into anything yielding more… you could make a killing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 30, 2015
$DXY - Cash US Dollar Index Chart / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
This might be interesting. As of early this morning the dollar is forming a failed breakout. The path of the dollar was clearly down until the ECB derailed it with talk of more easing last week. Are the fundamentals starting to pull it back down again?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Did USD Just Bottom? Did EUR Just Top? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
Find out free -- now, during Forex FreeWeek at elliottwave.com!
Late last week -- and then again on Monday -- EURUSD, the world's most traded forex pair, fell sharply. In fact, the euro lost almost 200 pips, or two cents, against the buck.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
US Dollar Key Days / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
The next two days are key. If the bounce over the last three days was the start of a new daily cycle then gold will drop down into a hard daily cycle low.
If one the other hand the dollar forms a swing high today and closes significantly back below the 10 DMA and more importantly follows through to the downside tomorrow it will signal that the bounce was a counter trend move and the dollar is going to test the August lows before the cycle bottoms.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 01, 2015
US Dollar El Peso Colombiano! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
It was the year 2001 when I first entered the country of Colombia. I crossed over the Rumichaca Bridge which separates Ecuador and Colombia and got the first bus of the day from Ipiales headed for Cali. I'd considered travelling overnight but had thought better of it having been warned about night time robberies along the way.
It wasn't long into my Colombian adventure when things heated up. Around 3 hours into the journey, travelling in some spectacular mountain scenery between the towns of Pasto and Popayan, the bus came to a screeching halt. That was because around five men in military fatigues jumped into the middle of the Panamericana highway pointing their guns at the bus. Here we go!
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 14, 2015
U.S. Dollar the Most Lopsided Trade, Implications for Gold, Commodities and Stocks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
I would say without a doubt the most lopsided trade in the world right now is the long dollar trade. Virtually everyone has become convinced that the dollar is going to 110, 120 or even 160.
Folks when everyone is thinking the same thing … then no one is thinking.
So let’s take a look at this “one way” trade.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 01, 2015
What Is The Future For The U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rodney_Johnson
China, the biggest foreign creditor of the United States, owns a truckload of our government bonds. Over the past several weeks, it’s been selling some of those bonds to prop up their currency, the yuan. This is supposed to signal the end of the dollar. As the Chinese put our bonds out for the bid, interest rates are going to shoot higher, driving down the value of the greenback and making imports unaffordable. At least, that’s what dollar haters have expected for years.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 31, 2015
The Most Important Market Chart on The Planet / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Sorry goldbugs, it is not the gold chart. There are a lot of opinions out there on the US Dollar. Many of them are bearish in the short medium and long term time frames.
So lets see what the Charts are whispering.
With all the volatility this week in markets around the world the US dollar made an interesting move. The long term daily chart below shows the five point rectangle, at the bottom left hand side of the chart, that launched the big breakout and impulse move higher in May of 2014. If you look at reversal point #5 with a question mark on it you'll see the comment I made at the time which I noted, this could be a false breakout to the downside and we might see a big move in the opposite direction, which was up. Keep in mind the chart was much bigger back then and the false breakout also looked much bigger. As you can see that indeed was a false breakout to the downside which led to the impulse move up we found ourselves in until the US dollar topped out earlier this year and has been building out the next consolidation pattern.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 28, 2015
Is this it for U.S. Dollar Bulls? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
US dollar bulls couldn't have asked for a better scenario -- Just as the USD index (basket of 6 currencies largely weighed vs EUR) was about to test a 3-month trendline support, the currency recovers. And just as EURUSD had broken above its 200-DMA for the first time in 13 months and above its 55-WMA for the first time in 12 months in a matter of 4 days, the single currency crashes back below these key levels later in the same week. But CAD, AUD, NZD and NOK have all outperformed USD thanks to a broad bounce in energy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Liftoff Setback Leads to U.S. Dollar Pullback / Currencies / US Dollar
By: AnyOption
The US dollar has experienced a tremendous rally over the last year as the end of quantitative easing and prospect of interest rate normalization led to upside momentum in the currency. Expectations were largely set for a September rate hike with many FOMC voting members forecasting two rate increases before the end of 2015. However, with recent inflation data and the growing emerging market turmoil, the Federal Reserve might be forced to hold off with its most well intentioned plans, sapping downside strength and building the case for a deeper technical pullback in the US dollar index.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 15, 2015
The China Dollar Shot Not Heard Around the World / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
China's recent move to devalue the yuan has sent shock waves through the global financial markets and has convinced most observers that a new front in the global currency wars has begun. The move has caused many observes to envision a new round of competitive devaluations around the globe in which the race to the bottom will intensify. In this scenario they envision that the U.S. dollar will solidify its standing as the only strong currency. This misses the point entirely.
Friday, July 24, 2015
USD Index Rebounds / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the initial jobless claims in the week ending July 18 dropped by 26,000 to 255,000, beating analysts' expectations for a 1,000 drop. In this environment, the USD Index bounced off session's lows and came back above 97. What impact did this move have on the euro, pound and Swiss franc?
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
US Dollar Breakout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ed_Carlson
The previous Friday's expected cycle low was successful in starting a rally last week in which the US Dollar had its best week since May. DXY gained 1.89% to close at 97.99 above the June 1 high and printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on the weekly chart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 03, 2015
The U.S. Dollar's 2014-2015 Rally: Wave 3 in Action / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
An excerpt from our free 14-page report shows you how the Elliott Wave Principle can "Boost Your Forex Success"
I always say trading forex markets is like riding a bike -- except that said bike has one flat tire and the ground beneath it is covered in ice.
So why are they so popular, you might ask? In fact, forex is the most liquid market on earth, where trillions of dollars change millions of hands every day.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 02, 2015
Guaranteed US Dollar Death Dynamics / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The USDollar is on a collision course with imminent death. It is utterly amazing that so many supposedly smart analysts and highly paid wealth managers cannot see the obvious path on which the USDollar treads, limps, and struts proudly, dangerously, and abusively, suspended by numerous false cables and tethers. The USDollar cannot be sustained in its current form or on its present course. The abuse of its management and stewardship will be told in history books (possibly with certain chapters scribed by the Jackass). The aggressive defense of the USDollar includes criminal activity on a widespread scale never witnessed before. It is a veritable global money war, not so much a global financial crisis. The system, centered upon the USDollar, is collapsing under its own insolvency and corrupt underpinnings amidst the din of war. The truth is almost nowhere to be seen. The USGovt is demanding that allies support the global currency reserve, even though doing so guarantees a financial structure collapse and an economic breakdown. The safe haven is Gold & Silver, in the form of bars & coins, kept secure outside all nations that speak English, and outside nations that are closely allied with the USFed and USDept Treasury which operate like a vast crime syndicate.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
U.S. Dollar Final Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ed_Carlson
DXY gained 1.46% last week to close at 95.65 back above its 34-dma as well as its mid-June reaction high (a higher high) giving hope to the bulls that the final rally is upon us. Despite the bearish seasonality of July, cycles indicate that the Dollar is set for one "last hurrah" prior to a "summer swoon" a month from now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 26, 2015
USD Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Conclusions / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
USD has been in correction since the hysterical March top. The daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows that was interrupted last week when USD failed to make a lower low, Hammered and bounced… right to the EMA and SMA 50’s.
So we remain on watch for a) a higher high or b) a lower low. It’s very simple. As it stands, the near-term is bearish until it proves bullish, not the other way around. That is because the existing trend is down (AROON, bottom Panel).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 18, 2015
USD Rally at Critical Levels / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
One way of grasping the latest tumble in the US dollar is to think of the following:
As expectations of a 2015 Fed hike grew increasingly cemented in the market, traders demanded a higher bar of positive US data performance, especially as macro-normalisation in Europe transitioned into outright progress. Not only most US figures failed to show a sufficient upside surprise since end of April, but business surveys and inflation data from Europe revealed evidence of progress from the ECB's QE program.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 06, 2015
Japanese Yen Falls to a 17-Year Low -- Watch How It Got There / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
Put differently, USDJPY is now trading at a 17-year high... but will it last?
You'll find many explanations in the news why the U.S. dollar is trading at the highest point against the Japanese yen since 2002. Most of them have one thing in common:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
USD Seems Quite Strong Against GBP and JPY / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
Cable is not so aggressively down at the start of this week, but still bearish with no overlaps. We see an impulse in progress towards lower levels, within an extended blue wave (iii).
GBPUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 18, 2015
The Money Illusion: What This Picasso Tells Us About the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Michael E. Lewitt writes: With the purchase of Picasso's Les Femmes d'Alger dans leur appartement (Version O) for $179 million, the world was served up another piece of evidence that money has lost all value.
Some will argue that such a price is justified for such a one-of-a-kind object, but what is really going on is not that the value of art is increasing but that the value of the paper currencies being used to buy it is being destroyed by central banks who print trillions of dollars of money around the clock.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 08, 2015
U.S. Dollar Danger Zone / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DeviantInvestor
The US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency since Bretton Woods – about 70 years. The power and importance of Middle-East oil and the US economy and military have supported the dollar for about 40 years. Quick story:
- The world buys oil in dollars. (Thank you Saudi Arabia and Kissinger.)
- Therefore the world must purchase (support) dollars to obtain oil.
- The US supports the oil producing nations with military might.
- The oil producing nations collect dollars in exchange for oil and recycle those petrodollars back into US T-bonds and equities thereby supporting the dollar and the US stock and bond markets.
Thursday, May 07, 2015
A Powerful Weapon of Financial Warfare--The US Treasury's Kiss of Death / Politics / US Dollar
By: Casey_Research
By Nick Giambruno
It’s an amazingly powerful weapon that only the US government can wield—kicking anyone it doesn’t like out of the world’s US-dollar-based financial system.
It’s a weapon foreign banks fear. A sound institution can be rendered insolvent at the flip of a switch that the US government controls. It would be akin to an economic kiss of death. When applied to entire countries—such as the case with Iran—it’s like a nuclear attack on the country’s financial system.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
What's Next for The U.S. Dollar and Currencies? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
In anticipation of higher U.S. rates and lower rates elsewhere, the greenback had enjoyed a dramatic rally. Has the tide turned, or is the dollar merely taking a breather? We believe there are threats and opportunities hidden underneath recent market action. Below is a closer look in an effort to allow investors to better understand the dynamics that might be unfolding.
Friday, April 24, 2015
What Will Happen to You When the U.S. Dollar Collapses? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Casey_Research
Jeff Thomas writes: Historically, when a nation’s debt exceeds its ability to repay even the interest, it can be assumed that the currency will collapse. Typically, governments exacerbate the situation by printing large amounts of currency notes in an effort to inflate the problem away, or at least postpone it.
The greater the level of debt, the more dramatic the inflation must be to counter it. The more dramatic the inflation, the greater the danger that hyperinflation will take place. No government has ever been able to control hyperinflation. If it occurs, it does so quickly and always ends with a crash.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 24, 2015
Why 2 of U.S. Dollar's Recent Bottoms Have 1 Thing In Common / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
In 2009 and 2014, a simple chart pattern enabled us to turn bullish the dollar, just in time for HUGE rallies. Learn to use this pattern now.
Imagine you're on an airplane, mid-air, when the intercom from the cockpit accidentally turns on. You and the entire cabin crew overhear the pilot say this to his copilot:
"I know we're heading northeast at 430 mph. But... I have no idea when or where I'm supposed to land."
That's when you cough up your bag of peanuts!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
The U.S. Dollar's Move Is More Dangerous than You Think / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt writes: With earnings season here, what's lost in the "oohing and aahing" over the incoming results is a reasoned look at what's influencing the dollar's move and, more importantly, the effect it will have on our wallets, if not today, certainly down the road.
Earnings and corporate reports are a long game, and that game is in the early innings. Investors need to understand the reasons behind the strength in the dollar, why it is likely to persist, and how we need to prepare…
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 17, 2015
The Over-Valued U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: GoldMoney
There are two connected reasons usually cited for the current dollar strength: the US economy is performing better than all the others, leading towards relatively higher US dollar interest rates, and that this is triggering a scramble for dollars by foreign corporations with uncovered USD liabilities. There is growing evidence that the first of these reasons is no longer true, in which case the pressure to buy dollars should lessen considerably.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
US Dollar Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ed_Carlson
With no break of the 34-dma and a cycle low due this week it is beginning to look like the bulk of the expected correction is behind us and DXY will soon begin what is expected to be the last leg of its rally prior to this September.
April looks bullish for the dollar with short-term cycles pointing to highs near both Apr. 15 and Apr. 30.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
US Dollar - Americas Phoenix / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
“Just a little patience, yeah…” - Guns N’ Roses
Lastweek the FOMC essentially removed forward guidance and placed all options back on the table, and at the end of the day they’ve opened the door for further tightening. As Yellen recently explained in advance, the removal of the word patience from the Fed’s guidance amounts to fair warning to the rest of the world’s central banks: an interest rate hike is on the horizon. Govern your actions accordingly. (My personal guess, for those interested, is September, with the Fed proceeding exceedingly slowly and cautiously thereafter.)
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 20, 2015
Sharp Fall In USD Index And Its Implications / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, Ms. Yellen said that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates later this year, but it will not occur after the FOMC next meeting in April. She also added that the decision will depend on the data. In response to this announcement the USD Index reversed and dropped below the barrier of 100, accelerating further declines. As a result, the greenback hit an intraday low of 94.77 against the basket of major currencies. What impact did this correction have on their short-term picture?
Thursday, March 19, 2015
The Double-Edged Sword of a Strong U.S. Dollar / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Clif_Droke
Until the latest pullback on Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index had been on a rip-and-tear for most of this year. Earlier this week the dollar hit a new multi-year high as concerns over Europe and China have fueled foreign interest in U.S. assets. The greenback's relentless strength is also a cause for concern among investors who fear that a stronger dollar will erode corporate profits this year. Since much of the bull market of the last few years was based on the bull market in corporate profits, this point is being taken seriously by Wall Street pros. It's also worth examining in this our latest installment.
Sunday, March 15, 2015
US Dollar Forex Pairs and Gold Chartology / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
When you look at these different currencies you will see some massive topping patterns that reversed their bull markets. You will also see they still have a long ways to go to the downside before this bear market is over. If that is the case then the US dollar has a long ways to go in its bull market.
Lets start with the CAD which broke down from a blue triangle consolidation pattern on Tuesday of this week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Currency Wars - U.S. Dollar Soars, Economy Disappoints / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Rubino
The point of competitive devaluation, aka currency war, is that a cheaper currency gives a country several advantages over its trading partners, leading to better growth and generally happier voters. The trading partners, meanwhile, get the ugly mirror image -- slowing growth and disgruntled citizens -- so they eventually respond in kind, with devaluations of their own. If nothing happens to stop the war, everyone's currency ends up being worth a lot less and a whole generation of savers is partially wiped out.
Friday, March 13, 2015
Trading the Parabolic U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
The mighty US dollar has been red-hot in March, rocketing higher on the incredible divergence of major central-bank policies. While the Federal Reserve’s first rate-hike cycle in 9 years looms, the European Central Bank has started aggressively monetizing sovereign debt for the first time ever. The resulting yield differential has catapulted the dollar parabolic, portending a major reversal and fantastic trading opportunity.
Currency trading is the biggest financial market in the world, with trillions of dollars changing hands every day. Yet since major currency price levels generally meander slowly, this massive market lurks beneath the surface with scant limelight. But this month the soaring US dollar and plummeting euro have utterly dominated mainstream financial news. These warring currencies’ huge price moves have been epic.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 12, 2015
U.S. Interest Rate Hikes Already Priced into the US Dollar Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EconMatters
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
All those bemoaning what rate hikes could potentially portend for the US Dollar need to get a grip, the rate hikes are already priced in. That`s how markets work, buy the rumor and sell the news or actual event. Moreover, not just one 25 basis point rate hike, taking a look at that chart, several rate hikes have already been priced into the US Dollar Index.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Is There a Shortage of U.S. Dollars? Will it Sink the Global Economy? Again? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Reader Patricia is wondering about a recent ZeroHedge article, The Global Dollar Funding Shortage Is Back With A Vengeance And "This Time It's Different".
Read full article... Read full article...The last time the world was sliding into a US dollar shortage as rapidly as it is right now, was following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The response by the Fed: the issuance of an unprecedented amount of FX liquidity lines in the form of swaps to foreign Central Banks. The "swapped" amount went from practically zero to a peak of $582 billion on December 10, 2008.
Sunday, March 08, 2015
Why It Matters If the Dollar Is the Reserve Currency / Economics / US Dollar
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: We refer to the dollar as a “reserve currency” when referring to its use by other countries when settling their international trade accounts. For example, if Canada buys goods from China, China may prefer to be paid in US dollars rather than Canadian dollars. The US dollar is the more “marketable” money internationally, meaning that most countries will accept it in payment, so China can use its dollars to buy goods from other countries, not solely the US. Such might not be the case with the Canadian dollar, and China would have to hold its Canadian dollars until it found something to buy from Canada. Multiply this scenario by all the countries of the world who print their own money and one can see that without a currency accepted widely in the world, international trade would slow down and become more expensive. In some ways, its effect would be similar to that of erecting trade barriers, such as the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 that contributed to the Great Depression.
Wednesday, March 04, 2015
U.S. Dollar Strategic Backfire On U.S. Government Policy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
It is very difficult to find a foreign policy deployed by the United States Govt that has been successful in recent years. In fact, almost all aggressive foreign policy initiatives have resulted in profound losses either in financial strategic position or in alliances with previous staid allied nations. They have almost uniformly backfired, while bravado has mixed with stupidity, while arrogance has blended with futility. The USGovt without given it thought, appears to be acting in reckless manner toward losing its entire set of advantages from a century. The nation has become hollowed out industrially by outsourcing, defrauded in housing mortgages, undermined in banks by derivatives, contaminated in USTreasury Bonds by the wildly applauded QE bond purchase wreckage, tarnished by exported terrorism, tainted by prevalent espionage, and shamed by reliance upon war to defend the USDollar. The US is fast becoming recognized as a rogue nations, but worse, as a nation with stupid leadership. The more aggressive the leadership led by the Manchurian sock puppet plus stage entourage and legion of legislators bound by bank donations, the more rapid the failures, the more rapid the development of USD workarounds, the more rapid the frayed lines to allies, the more rapid the isolation of a once great nation, the more rapid the systemic failure. Witness the climax of the Fascist Business Model, which almost no other analyst seems to emphasize or notice. The effect of fascism upon the financial platforms and economic structure has been profoundly negative. Like all fascist regimes, the attacks are directed to enemies first in direct thefts, then to allies in frauds recognized later, finally to the citizens in hidden pilferage and lost rights. The result is always the same, except for the rhyme of its ruin. The implosion is as loud as the escape flights for leaders, along with their protected off-shore accounts.
Sunday, March 01, 2015
US Dollar Remaining Strong / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Norcini
A quick update on the USDX is in order after a strong surge to the upside on Thursday of this past week.
I have marked this chart with some shaded rectangular boxes that correspond to periods in which the Bollinger bands were contracting. For those who are not familiar with how to interpret the bands, when the width is widening out, volatility is increasing. Generally speaking, when a market is trending in one direction or the other, the bands will be widening. When a market is consolidating or moving sideways in a range, the bands will be contracting.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
U.S. Dollar Collapse? USD Index Trend Forecast 2015 / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterDec 14th , 2014 Issue # 20 Vol. 8
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 02, 2015
Say Goodbye to the “Strong Dollar Policy” / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
It is absurd to believe that the inhabitants of the Eccles building in D.C. promote a strong dollar policy. Printing $3.8 trillion dollars and keeping interest rates at zero percent for going on the seventh year can hardly be confused with a hard-currency regime. Merely pretending to cheer the dollar higher appears to be the Fed’s method of operation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 22, 2015
The U.S. Dollar Has Peaked / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "Today may be the very top in the U.S. dollar," I told Liz Claman on Fox Business' "Countdown to the Closing Bell" last Friday.
The U.S. dollar has soared over the last several months. And it has now become a crowded trade. I told Liz that no one expects the dollar to fall today... but that's what I'm betting on.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2015
Behold the US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The purpose of this article is to illustrate the continuous strength of the US Dollar from back in September 2014 and how we are not even at the half way point yet for this current move. The US Dollar Index is thought to be in a bull market for another 5-7 years, so as analysis will show today, the top in the US Dollar appears to be setting up for mid-term top this coming September, rather than November as previously reported.
Sunday, December 28, 2014
Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Oil
Oil has continued to crash throughout December but I suspect there is now only marginally lower to go with the final low imminent.
Let’s investigate using the monthly and daily charts.
Thursday, December 18, 2014
John Williams: A Downhill Run for the U.S. Dollar in 2015 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Rosy GDP numbers may have cheered the masses, but John Williams of ShadowStats.com says we're a long way from prosperity. In this interview with The Gold Report, Williams debunks the myth of economic recovery and warns that we still have serious debts to settle. That is why he is recommending caution in 2015 to preserve purchasing power and maintain your standard of living.
The Gold Report: Your hyperinflation report predicted 2014 would be dominated by economic distress, financial crisis and panics. Were you surprised by the performance of the economy this year?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
U.S. Dollar Trend Forecast 2015 - Video / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will the US Dollar collapse in 2015? Or will the bull market soar to new highs? Find out in this video analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
U.S. Dollar Collapse? USD Index Trend Forecast 2015 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For as many years as I can remember and 2014 has been no exception, the most vocal mantra that can often be heard is one of warnings of an always imminent U.S. Dollar collapse as a consequence of a myriad of highly convincing arguments such as a soaring debt mountain, deficit, rampant money printing, demographics, rise of China, death of the petro-dollar etc.. However the dollar trend of recent years shows that the dollar in actual fact is little changed, where even the recent breakout only put the USD barely 4% outside of its multi-year trading trading range of between 85 to 79 and still within its longer-term trading range of 89 to 75.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Spare U.S. Dollars / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Last week I wrote that contrary to the prevailing mood US dollar strength could reverse at any time. This week I look at another aspect of the dollar, which almost certainly will become a significant source of supply: a global shift out of it by foreign holders.
As well as multinational corporations that account in dollars, there are non-US entities that use dollars purely for trade. And so long as governments intervene in currency markets, governments end up with those trade dollars in their foreign reserves. Some of these governments are now pushing hard to replace the dollar, having seen its debasement, which is beyond their control. This has upset nations like China, and that is before we speculate about any geopolitical angle.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2014
USD Strength Could Trigger Emerging Market Crisis Sending it Even Higher / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MahiFX
It seems impossible for the USD to move in any right direction for emerging markets with it blamed for causing inflation when it falls and now it’s the culprit for a potential crisis in some developing countries which have borrowed in the US currency. The bad news for them is that the greenback is likely to carry on strengthening.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2014
How the Rising U.S. Dollar Could Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
This week’s Outside the Box continues with a theme that I and my colleague Worth Wray have been hammering on for some time: the very real potential for a rising dollar to trigger the next global financial crisis.
We are concerned about the consequences of multi-speed economic growth around the world and the growing divergence between major central banks. In our opinion, if these trends persist, they likely mean (1) a major US dollar rally, (2) a rapid unwind of QE-induced capital flows to emerging markets, (3) a hard slide in fragile emerging-market and commodity-exporter currencies, and (4) financial shocks capable of ushering in a new global financial crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2014
U.S. Dollar Long/Short Position / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In the context of the gold price, many relate the net long/short position in the US.$ as an influence on the gold price. To a small extent this may be true, but not, in our opinion, to an extent that actually affects the gold price.
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Current US Dollar Trend Defined / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Performance of the US Dollar Index has been stellar and is developing an interesting pattern that once complete around mid to late March 2015 will indicate the final upper target expected around August 2015. This report has a lot of technical information and might be considered “rather dry” to most, but I encourage the reader to wade through this, chew on it and digest it. For those who want the direct forecast up front, avoid commodities and go long S&P 500 type of Exchange Traded Funds. By simply being conservative, 10-15% can still be made between now and August 2015.
Thursday, December 04, 2014
US Dollar Up/Down Trends Lasts 6-10 Years and Have Significant % Moves / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jas_Jain
The index used, Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies, is published by St. Louis Fed and is very highly correlated with DXY.
The central banks policies and govt policies, announced and unannounced, and agreements, as in 1980s, play a big role in currency moves. The latest example is Japanese Yen. However, speculators and momentum players (trend followers) are the primary drivers of trends that last several years until extremes, not justified by economic fundamentals, are reached and reversals follow.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 30, 2014
US Dollar Index and Crude Oil Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
US Dollar Index
The US dollar has surged in recent months breaking some obvious resistance levels. This has brought out many calls for an even bigger move up. While this is possible, I suspect a big fake out move is in play. Let's investigate.
Firstly, let's begin with the yearly chart of the US dollar index to help put things in perspective.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2014
What Causes the U.S. Dollar to Move? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Understanding the relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold is necessary to successfully invest in gold. However, it is not sufficient, because changes in the USD exchange rates cannot be analyzed outside the economic context: gold, although not officially money, is traded like a currency. Therefore, long-term investors should not analyze the gold market in isolation or confine themselves to observe the U.S. dollar index. The price of gold reflects the complex financial world and hence depends on many factors: the movements of interest rates, inflation or economic growth. The U.S. dollar may rise due to many factors, each time affecting the price of gold in a slightly different way. In other words, if the USD and gold prices have an inverse relationship, then forecasts for gold prices should be prepared while taking into account the expectations of currency movement. To do this, we need to understand the factors driving the greenback.
Monday, November 24, 2014
All Hail the King U.S. Dollar - Trend Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
In part two of this Weekend Report I want to take an indepth look at the US dollar as many of the important currencies of the world all seem to be making important moves right now. If that is true then the US dollar is also in the process of making an important move in the opposite direction.
Below is a long term monthly chart for the US dollar that shows black and white candlesticks. In a strong impulse move down you will see a string of back candles all in a row and in a strong impulse move up you will see a string of white candles all in a row. If the US dollar doesn't crash and burn during this last week of trading for November, it will have completed it sixth month in a row of white candles sticks. This is telling us the breakout move from the massive ten year base is underway and is looking healthy. Remember big bases equals a big move and a small base equals a small move. It's all relative.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 14, 2014
The Return of the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
Two years ago, my friend Mohamed El-Erian and I were on the stage at my Strategic Investment Conference. Naturally we were discussing currencies in the global economy, and I asked him about currency wars. He smiled and said to me, “John, we don’t talk about currency wars in polite circles. More like currency disagreements” (or some word to that effect).
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
The U.S. Dollar’s Crucial Role in the Commodity Cycle / Commodities / US Dollar
By: Harry_Dent
The U.S. dollar is falling and it’ll ultimately crash and go down to near zero. Not true… that’s what the gold bugs keep harping on but it’s not true.
This misinformation is very representative of what’s going on in the global economy and it’s almost as bad as the liberal economists and analysts who believe we should just print as much money as necessary to keep the economy growing.
Let’s just start with the truth.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2014
Why a Strong U.S. Dollar is the Ultimate Economic Stimulus / Economics / US Dollar
By: Clif_Droke
Earlier this year commodities prices were fairly buoyant thanks in part to strong demand in Asia. The strength didn’t last long, however, and by summer weakness was evident in Europe and China. Global growth slowed considerably in the months leading up to October, when oil plunged below $90/barrel for the first time since 2012. Apart from weakening global demand and the growth of energy supplies (thanks to fracking), the strengthening U.S. dollar has accelerated this trend.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2014
Ron Paul Says: Watch the Petrodollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Casey_Research
By Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, InternationalMan.com
The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better.—Ron Paul
Dr. Paul is referring to the petrodollar system, one of the main pillars that’s been holding up the US dollar’s status as the world’s premier reserve currency since the breakdown of Bretton Woods.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 31, 2014
The End Of An Era: Is The US Petrodollar Under Threat? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: OilPrice_Com
Recent trade deals and high-level cooperation between Russia and China have set off alarm bells in the West as policymakers and oil and gas executives watch the balance of power in global energy markets shift to the East.
The reasons for the cozier relationship between the two giant powers are, of course, rooted in the Ukraine crisis and subsequent Western sanctions against Russia, combined with China's need to secure long-term energy supplies. However, a consequence of closer economic ties between Russia and China could also mean the beginning of the end of dominance for the U.S. dollar, and that could have a profound impact on energy markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Currency War - How to Profit from a Stronger U.S. Dollar / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: The Fed plans to wind down its asset purchases this month, but Japan and the United Kingdom are still buying, full swing.
Meanwhile, the European Union is just looking to get started.
And, while the Fed is expected to begin raising rates next year, Europe and Japan recently pushed theirs below zeroas deflation appears to be the bigger threat.v
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
U.S. Dollar Sea Change / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
You don’t need a weatherman
To know which way the wind blows.
– Bob Dylan, “Subterranean Homesick Blues,” 1965
Full fathom five thy father lies.
Of his bones are coral made.
Those are pearls that were his eyes.
Nothing of him that doth fade,
But doth suffer a sea-change
Into something rich and strange.
– William Shakespeare, The Tempest
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 10, 2014
US Dollar Super Overbought / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
The US dollar has relentlessly blasted higher in recent months, achieving its longest consecutive-week rally in history. Speculators have flooded into the world’s reserve currency for a variety of reasons, ranging from Federal Reserve rate-hike hopes to festering Eurozone worries. But the resulting massive dollar surge has left it super-overbought while breeding universal bullishness, the precursors to a sharp selloff.
While only a small fraction of traders speculate in currencies, the foreign-exchange market is the largest in the world by far. Trillions of dollars change hands in currency trades every day, dwarfing all the other markets! And currency prices, particularly the fortunes of the dominant US dollar, can greatly affect everything else in the financial-market and economic realms. No one can afford to ignore the US dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 07, 2014
US Dollar is Extreme / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
Using Tom McCellan’s article discussing a “blow off” move in the US dollar and its very bearish net short position by commercial traders as a starting point, I would like to talk about the USD and gold and how they each fit in to the global macro backdrop. We could add silver into the mix as well because its failure in relation to gold (ref. the gold-silver ratio’s breakout last week) is the other horseman (joining Uncle Buck) that would indicate a changing macro. Here’s the McClellan piece:
Monday, October 06, 2014
U.S. Dollar's Ride is About to End / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Under the stewardship of Shinzo Abe, the nation of Japan has become a global leader in debt, currency devaluation and inflation. Unfortunately for the Japanese, Abenomics is also leading Japan into a hyperinflationary depression, as the first of his three arrows has shot right through the yen and put a gaping hole in the wallets of every Japanese citizen.
Monday, October 06, 2014
The Soaring U.S. Dollar Debate: Good, Bad, Ugly / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Rubino
The dollar is on a tear. And the world is scrambling to figure out what it means.
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
US Dollar Cycle Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ed_Carlson
It seems nothing can stop the US Dollar. Since its low in April it has closed higher in four out of five months and is up almost 8.00% since then. While a run like that is in need of a rest there are some big issues that need to be considered now.
DXY broke out of a six-year triangle this month. Breaking to the upside from a triangle is bullish. That triangle is essentially a six-year base and should give DXY some serious "legs" for the future.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Destroying the U.S. Dollar a Penny at a Time / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Mike Finger writes: A recent article on the Wall Street Journal's blog draws attention to the high cost of producing a single penny - 1.6 cents each, to be exact. They blame this unsustainable price on the high cost of zinc, which makes up 97.5% of every American penny. The online publication Quartz ran with this story, giving it a new headline: "It costs 1.6 cents to make one penny because of the rising price of zinc". Time for a short economics lesson.
Monday, September 22, 2014
U.S. Dollar: The Last Hurrah? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
End of empire is a difficult time for two groups, investors and patriots. A hundred years ago the U.S. took the economic baton from England to become the most important economy in the world. No doubt some loyalists refused to recognize the shift that was taking place. From then on the world began to denominate economic activity in U.S. dollars. Holding British pounds might have been the loyal thing to do, but it was not a wise investment decision. Today, a similar situation exists for the dollar. Dollar-based investors may now be facing the "last hurrah" for the dollar, and should not ignore that possibility.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Russia and China May Destroy Petrodollar / Politics / US Dollar
By: Pravda
Actions of the West in Eastern Europe and ongoing pressure on Russia may eventually intensify the movement to combat the petrodollar. The biggest danger to the oil currency is likely to be related to China and its plans to increase the role of the yuan in the world.
Russia and China currently discuss the creation of a system of inter-bank transactions, which would be an analogue to the international system of bank transfers - SWIFT. This was announced by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov after talks in Beijing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
U.S. Dollar’s Turn to Cause a Recession / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Rubino
Europe is an economic basket case while the US is kind-of sort-of recovering. Why? Several reasons, but the only one that really matters these days is that in 2012 and 2013 the eurozone operated with tight monetary policy and an appreciating currency while the US created new money with abandon and let the dollar fall. So US products got cheaper on global markets and US companies and consumers were able to borrow at more favorable rates. The result: relatively fast growth in the US and a descent into deflationary depression for the eurozone. Here’s the euro vs the dollar between early 2012 and early 2014:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
The Emergence of the US Petro-Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
Trying to pick a profitable trade in the foreign exchange market is similar to judging a “reverse beauty” contest, that is to say, the winner is the least ugly currency at any given moment in time. All paper currencies are ugly, because central bankers print vast quantities of fiat currency, to varying degrees, at the behest of the ruling political elite that appointed them to run the printing presses. “By this means, government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft,” –the late British economist John Maynard Keynes, used to say. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2014
A Closer Look at the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
Using the standard weekly currency chart we followed along for months as the Euro found resistance at the long-term downtrend line as expected, the commodity currencies long ago lost major support and non-confirmed the commodity complex and the US dollar moved from a hold of critical support, to a trend line breakout, to its current impulsive and over bought status. It is time now for a closer look at Uncle Buck since this reserve currency is key to so many asset markets the world over.
Monday, September 15, 2014
US Dollar Forecast to Go Much Higher / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The US Dollar has gone gang busters after breaking above 81.7 and clearly has broken out. This has implications for everything else. As the US Dollar is a Reserve Currency, everything that has an inverse relationship to it will fall, such as gold. As I mentioned, I got out of all of my core precious metal positions a few weeks ago after the drop and bounce, as there is no indication that they will participate to the upside with a rising US Dollar under the current global environment. Most commodities are experiencing weakness and this will continue into next year until the US Dollar initially tops out. When the global economy after August 2015 hits, then commodities could get whacked even more. They might not get clipped as bad as per 2008 off the record highs, but there still will be a correction to follow. How long the rally in the US Dollar lasts is really anyone's guess. Analysis will show a high expected in the range of 93-95 by August 2015, but it could still have strength as deflation overtakes the global economies.
Friday, September 12, 2014
Currency Market Mayhem / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Alasdair_Macleod
You’d think that the US dollar has suddenly become strong, and the chart below of the other three major currencies confirms it.
The US dollar is the risk-free currency for international accounting, because it is the currency on which all the others are based. And it is clear that three months ago dollar exchange rates against the three currencies shown began to strengthen notably.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
AUD USD Beware The Fake Out / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
The AUDUSD has been smashed the last couple of days. It has even busted through a well known support level. Many bulls would have stopped out of long positions on this move down while many bears would have shorted the break. I believe this to be a classic market deception. Let’s investigate starting with the daily chart.
Friday, September 05, 2014
US Dollar and Yen Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight is a good time to look at some long term charts for the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. I've been waiting for this day for more than a year now when I first created this long term US dollar chart. Some of our long term members will recall this monthly fractal chart that I labeled as having a Big Base #1 and Big Base #2 which are fractals as shown by the numbers on each base. At the time I thought we were ready to breakout above the almost 14 year S&R rail but as you can see the US dollar needed one more small move lower to finish off the big base #2. The breakout doesn't look very impressive on this bar chart but it is happening.
Thursday, September 04, 2014
NATO Dead, King Dollar Wrecked / Politics / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Paradigm Shift has reached a higher gear. The danger and risk levels have gone to critical levels. The risk of economic destruction has gone into recognizable critical levels. The source of the problem has become more easily identified. The typical tactics not only do not work, but expose the bully, the warmonger, the hegemony advocate, the wizard of violence, the imposer of self-serving rules, the crime syndicate bosses, the masters of espionage, the man with killer drone toys. The USDollar is defended by war, market interference (see LIBOR, FOREX, debt ratings), accounting rules gimmicks, rigged detonation of banking systems, pointed assassinations for heads of state, even fabricated natural events (see HAARP in Philippines).
Thursday, September 04, 2014
What's Next for The U.S. Dollar and Gold? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
One reason markets tend to get a little nervous in September is that it's time for investors to ponder about their asset allocation for the remainder of the year and beyond. With the markets at or near record highs and the US dollar on a roll, what could possibly go wrong? Let's look at what's next for the dollar, gold, and currencies.
Monday, August 18, 2014
No Escape from The Dollar as The Currency Standard / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Alasdair_Macleod
All commodities and near-commodities are priced internationally in dollars, and the dollar is used for over 80% of cross-border trade settlements. Consequently the dollar is the base currency for all countries' foreign reserves, giving it its reserve status. However, there are now challenges to the dollar's hegemony, with Russia, China as well as the other members, dialog-partners and associates of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), taking deliberate steps towards doing away with the dollar entirely for pan-Asian trade. Recent developments setting up a rival to the IMF by the BRICS nations is part of this challenge.
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Putin And The Petrodollar Card Castle / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andrew_McKillop
The End of The Petrodollar
Googling my name and petrodollars may be useful – the petrodollar paradigm has been alive, but never well since the early 1970s quick-fix of Nixon and Kissinger to cut US trade and budget deficits, bolster the US dollar, and stroke Saudi royal fur in the right direction. The Nixon-Kissinger quick fix was to use the “windfall gains” of Arab Gulf oil producers, and especially Saudi Arabia to enable their early form of quantitative easing.
Monday, August 11, 2014
US Sanctions on Russia May Sink the Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
The US government's decision to apply more sanctions on Russia is a grave mistake and will only escalate an already tense situation, ultimately harming the US economy itself. While the effect of sanctions on the dollar may not be appreciated in the short term, in the long run these sanctions are just another step toward the dollar's eventual demise as the world's reserve currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2014
U.S. Dollar Index Looks For Correction Within The Uptrend / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
The US Dollar Index found 81.70 which has been expected as the rally from around 79.90 has unfolded in five waves. We know that after every five waves trend will reverse, either into a new trend or just into a correction. In our case we believe that market is now falling in another fourth wave, but of a higher degree that may find a base around 81.20, but after a three wave fall.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 01, 2014
USD Topping Out – Nikkei Weekly Pin Bar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Forex Kong writes: The other day’s 100 pip ramp up in USD/JPY has stuck – so far.
Sitting up here at the top end of the range it’s obvious that The BOJ did everything it could “pre U.S GDP debacle” to keep the status quo and defend the line at 101.20.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 01, 2014
U.S. Dollar Summer Cycle Sit Down / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ed_Carlson
A 3year cycle points to an important low this summer. At 3years, 3months, July seems like a good bet but it is possible the cycle low came two months early with the low in May. However, July is also an expected 13-month cycle low. A 95-day cycle low is due the final week in July.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 15, 2014
US Dollar Index Huge Consolidation Pattern / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
The title says it all really. Let’s first look at the yearly chart of the US Dollar Index to see what it means.
YEARLY CHART
Monday, June 02, 2014
U.S. Dollar Distorted, Dislocated and Discombobulated / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It looks like we’ll have a few more days to watch this thing, this alleged market, until on Thursday Mario Draghi launches his modern day version of Greenspan’s oracle years and on Friday the BLS, which can rival any oracle when it comes to confusing utterances, has the US employment numbers. There seem to be people who think those numbers might be quite good, though that might be hard to imagine in the wake of a shrinking US economy. Then again, in an environment where very few numbers make sense anymore, it’s anyone’s call.
Friday, May 16, 2014
Fall Of the U.S. Dollar Based Monetary System: Russia Puts The Avalanche In Motion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: GoldSilverWorlds
It is truly astonishing how much trust people have in the establishment. Almost everyone believes that central planners are focused on defending the best outcome for society. In the same respect, almost everyone nowadays believes that “things are contained.”
Looking under the hood, it appears that several worrisome trends are going on. Examining those trends, one can only conclude that they are building up momentum. But make no mistake, momentum, in this case, is not in the right direction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 16, 2014
Gold Standard - How the U.S. Government Created the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
By Robert Prechter
The Government's Disastrous Reign Over U.S. Money
Very few people know that the United States did not create a monetary unit pegged to 'buy' some amount of metal, as if the dollar were some kind of money independent of metal. In 1792, Congress passed the U.S. Coinage Act, which defined a dollar as a coin containing 337.25 grains of silver and 44.75 grains of alloy. Congress did not say a dollar was worth that amount of metal; it was that amount of metal. A dollar, then was a unit of weight, like a gram, ounce or pound. Since the alloy portion of the coin was nearly worthless, a dollar was essentially defined as 1 Troy ounce.) In a nutshell, a dollar was equal to a bit more than 3/4 of an announce of silver; or, in reverse, an ounce of silver was equal to $1.293.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 15, 2014
High Tide for the U.S. Dollar: Revenge of the Sith / Politics / US Dollar
By: Jesse
I have certainly considered this scenario many times, of how the dollar regime might evolve, and the one discussed below remains one possible outcome.
There is an intense international discussion going on about the future of the international currency system, and relations in general. I have referred to this generally as the 'currency wars' for some time.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Are Russia and China About To Announce The End Of The US Dollar Era? / Politics / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
Countries all over the world are meeting for a purpose that concerns you greatly, whether or not you're American: disuse of the US dollar.
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis the end of the US dollar seems closer than ever. In move-after-move, Russia and China have become closer allies. There are numerous examples of this. For brevity's sake, two recent examples catch the eye. Gazprom issued bonds in the Chinese Yuan and Russia and China also signed a gas deal. There are many more examples. 40 central banks have even placed bets on the yuan as the future reserve currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 12, 2014
U.S. Dollar/Yen Dynamics and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
It is imperative to understand the dynamics between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese Yen in order to grasp what is occurring across international markets. Investors have been borrowing Yen at nearly zero percent interest rates and buying higher-yielding assets located worldwide. These market savvy institutions and individuals realize that buying income producing assets, which are backed by a currency that is gaining value against the Yen, is a win-win trade.
Monday, May 12, 2014
What’s Going on With the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jonathan_Davis
The below is the index of the US $ against a basket of currencies, such as € (c 58% of index), £, CAN$, CHF (Swiss Franc) and Japanese ¥ and (strangely) Swedish Krona.
As you can see the US$ was in confirmed uptrend from the all time low in 2011 to last Summer (red diagonal line indicates).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Has The U.S. Dollar Lost its Safe Haven Status? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The greenback isn't what it used to be. At least for now, when there's a "flight" to U.S. Treasuries; historically a sign of "safe haven" demand; the U.S. dollar has not only not benefited but has increasingly been on the losing end. Is this a temporary sign of special circumstances or has the dollar lost its safe haven appeal? There may be profound implications for investor's portfolios seeking downside protection.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
U.S. Dollar Crash In a Matter of Months? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jesse
In case you were wondering there is a Comex precious metal options expiration on Thursday the 24th.
Since the expiration is for the inactive month of May, I am wondering if they are not going to do an early hit with a head fake on this one as the day comes.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
USD/JPY Capped In A Triangle / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
Despite strong sell-off from 103.74 two weeks back {{3|USD/JPY}} is moving sideways for too long now, so we assume that market is trapped in some bigger corrective pattern. Because swing low since start of February are still in place we are observing a triangle idea with wave (c) underway now to 103.00 area, especially bounce bounce from 101.20 is already showing signs of a corrective move. Keep in mind that each leg within a triangle unfold in corrective manner, thus in three legs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
U.S. Dollar Value Could Suffer Instant Change / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Morgan
span style="color:#000000; ">Silver expert David Morgan is warning of coming financial changes that may be forced on the U.S. during the next G20 meeting. Morgan says, “The impetus here is the U.S. has had too much financial power backed by the military for far too long, and they (G20) are going to implement change one way or the other. The IMF is basically an extension of the United States. Even though it’s called the International Monetary Fund, it is really U.S. based. With what’s been proposed here, the IMF is not going to have the clout that it once did because the G-20 is going to be able to overrule the IMF vote. This is a point in history, monetary history and global economic politics that could set a precedent . . . where it’s official that the U.S. dollar has lost its primary status as world reserve currency.”
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
U.S. Dollar Bottom - Third Time’s a Charm? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ed_Carlson
The US Dollar index bottomed on Monday’s 21-day cycle and then rallied over 1% last week (after the previous week’s big cycle convergence). In doing so it printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on the weekly chart (not shown).
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 21, 2014
U.S. Dollar Extends Gains After Jobless Claims Data, Trend Forecasts / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
The U.S. dollar moved higher against major currency pairs after better-than-expected initial jobless claims data. Earlier today, the Department of Labor showed in its report that initial claims for jobless benefits in the week ending March 15 rose by 5,000 to 320,000 from the previous week's total of 315,000 000, while analysts had expected an increase of 10,000. What impact did it have on major currency pairs? What is their current outlook? If you want to know our take on this question, we invite you to read our today's Forex Trading Alert.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
USD Remains In Bearish Mode / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
Markets are still very slow and in tight ranges since start of the week. The USD however is showing some recovery now, but only on the intraday basis. Generally speaking USD remains in bearish mode, while stocks remain up.
On EUR/USD we can see wave c now moving south that we highlighted it yesterday. Fibonacci ratios shows a nice support around at 1.3830/40 where pair may find a new base again. Rally back above 1.3880 will open door for new highs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 06, 2014
Ukraine as the U.S. Dollar Waterloo - Immediate Petro-Dollar Risk / Politics / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The desperation of the Anglo-American leadership, guided by the steady corrupt banker hands, has never been more acutely high, nor obvious in full view. The entire Ukraine situation is a travesty. It includes Langley agents killing police and street demonstrators from rooftops, the confirmation coming from the Estonian Embassy (translation of scripts). It includes thefts of official Ukrainian Govt funds, again sent to the Swiss hill sanctuary. It includes sanctions delivered by a US Paper Tiger, sure to cause horrific backlash. It involves the last gasp attempt to obstruct the Gazprom energy pipelines, which will inevitably corner the European market in monopoly. It involves subterfuge with the NATO card (aka Narcotics And Treachery Outlaws) with missiles placed on the Russian borders. Look for NATO members to find a back door to exit the spurious treaty. It involves playing with nitro-glycerine in the Petro-Dollar room. It involves putting tremendous risk for much more clear isolation of the United States. The more the USGovt pushes, the more the US will be isolated. Remember that Nazis steal from their enemy states, de-fraud from their allied states, and force themselves into an isolated state. In Ukraine, the United States has over-played its weak hand. Already, a secret document was leaked in London that the UKGovt would not support the US-led sanctions against Russia.
Thursday, March 06, 2014
U.S. Dollar's Long Term Decline / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The cleanest of the dirty shirts doesn’t necessarily preserve your purchasing power. Sure, the U.S. dollar has beaten the Russian Ruble and some others of late, but when it comes to real competition, the U.S. dollar has taken a back seat. The U.S. dollar’s long-term decline may be firmly in place and investors may want to buckle up to get ready for the ride.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Return of Goldilocks Economy Means a Weaker USD, but Beware the 3 Bears / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MahiFX
Central banks are shifting their policies in response to signs that economies are returning to growth. In many ways it looks like a comforting return to the 'old normal' when a broad range of indicators influenced currencies. If so that suggests USD weakness, but beware the three bears.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
U.S. Dollar, Major Forex Market Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
It has been awhile since I have posted on the web and thought this was an appropriate article to share. This article focuses on technical analysis of 3 currencies and the US Dollar Index. A lot of the technical indicators I follow are universal, but the way in which they are modified and put together will not be found anywhere else. Developing the Contracting Fibonacci Spiral and the inverse chiral inversion that happened last summer have played a role in the forecast of this article. As unbelievable as the forecast may seem by time the end of this article, there is a significant amount of logic that went into this and may even defy logic. There is a mathematical basis to this pattern and hopefully it will be understood somewhat by the end of this article...
Monday, February 17, 2014
U.S. Dollar Remains Mixed / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
The U.S. currency was little changed near recent lows against major currencies as U.S. markets are shut for the President’s Day holiday and trade volumes remain thin. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that the greenback declined to a four-year low against the British pound earlier today. What is the current outlook for major currency pairs? We invite you to read our today's Forex Trading Alert.
Monday, February 17, 2014
AUDUSD Forecast - Resistance Around 0.9080 - 0.9170 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
AUDUSD has found a support in the past two weeks and rallied more than 300 pips from 0.8650 which can be wave C as part of a flat correction in wave B). The reason is a three wave decline from above 0.9080 that we think it's corrective wave B as a part of a bigger complex correction. If we are on the right track then pair will rise up to 0.9080 - 0.9170 resistance zone in the next few trading days where a completion of a contra-trend pattern may occur.
Monday, February 10, 2014
The Split Birth of New Scheiss Dollar, Vicious Cycle & Downward Spiral / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The United States is fast racking up characteristics of a Third World nation. Its finances are Third World. Its president is Third World. Its banking integrity is Third World. Its absent industry is Third World. Its decaying cities are Third World. It urgently begs for a Third World currency, but that is soon to be remedied. The nation has been a freeloader on the global reserve currency for too long. That is about to end. For the last three years, the United States has been living in a fairy tale with bailouts from the vast bond monetization. The Quantitative Easing with its amplified bond purchases and hidden channels to disguise higher volumes has been operating as an historically unprecedented Wall Street bailout and Fannie Mae fraud recycle room. Pressures are building. The USDollar held in foreign jurisdictions is beyond the legal authority of the USGovt, which cannot continue covering its debts with inflation spew in the grandest heretic experiment in history. The solution within the global currency reset is the launch of the new American Dollar, for its own usage, no longer a global reserve currency.
Friday, January 17, 2014
U.S. Dollar Looks Bullish / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD Index Weekly
Dollar Index is slow choppy and overlapping within two contracting trendlines for the last few years which we think it represents a triangle pattern, most likely placed in wave B) position. The reason is a five wave rally in wave A) from 2008 low which is first leg of a three wave A)-B)-C) recovery. As such, we will be looking up in wave C) after a completion of a triangle pattern. For now that's not the case yet, as we will need waves D and E before we may turn immediately bullish. In the next few weeks we however expect move up in wave D up to the upper trendline of the pattern.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
U.S. Dollar, Currencies and Gold Outlook 2014 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Rarely has the future been so clear. Really?? A lot of money has been lost jumping on the bandwagon. Let’s do a common sense check on the greenback to gauge where risks might be lurking and where there might be profit opportunities for investors.
Friday, January 10, 2014
The Parameters of the Coming U.S. Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Hyperinflation is a dynamic process - much like a positive feedback loop that, once entered, is almost impossible to exit. The process can go on for years. In the feedback cycle, the more central banks print money and buy bonds, the less other entities want to hold bonds.Simultaneously, the less others choose to hold bonds, the more the central bank is forced to buy so that the government has enough money to spend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 08, 2014
Reasons Why The U.S. Government Is Destroying The Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Amerman
Overview
The United States government has six interrelated motivations for destroying the value of the dollar:
-
Creating money out of thin air on a massive basis is all that stands between the current state of hidden depression, and overt depression with unemployment levels potentially rivaling those seen in the Great Depression of the 1930s.
-
It is the most effective way to not just pay down current crushing debt levels using devalued dollars, but also to deal with the rapidly approaching massive generational crisis of paying for Boomer retirement promises.
Saturday, January 04, 2014
Why the World is Trapped with their U.S. Dollars / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
To a lot people a country with large foreign reserves is equivalent to a strong country. In a way it is true because a country can only accumulate foreign reserves when it is running a budget surplus. Having large foreign reserves has its advantages like enabling it to finance more imports and also acting as a cushion against an economic downturn. However there are also disadvantages associated with having a large foreign reserve. Besides generating inflation it also increases our dependence on the US$ which we are unable to get out from. A lot of people might thought I am nuts, saying that Malaysia and the rest of the world are trapped with their Dollar denominated foreign reserves. I shall show you why we can’t as a group but before that let us go through our country’s international reserves holdings.
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
USD Index Looks For Bullish Reversal / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
We believe that USD Index has now turned bullish with impulsive rise from 79.00 and breakout out of a downward channel. This breakout is important sign for a change in trend, even if just temporary. Based on a big picture with a triangle, we think that rise from 79.00 is start of a wave D that will unfold in three legs. If that is the case then current downward move is just a wave (B) correction that could stop around 78.6-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area. As such, move up in wave (C) could start unfolding in the second part of December.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 13, 2013
Disaster Insurance Ahead of the U.S. Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Most people simply cannot conceive of a US dollar hyperinflation any more than a current resident of San Francisco could imagine a 1906 or 1989 earthquake. Many simply choose to not dwell on these potentialities, often rationalizing them against other existential if not abstract inevitabilities.
Dollar Confidence and Money Velocity
Money velocity can be defined simply as GDP divided by money supply.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 13, 2013
NZD/USD Choppy Moves Ahead / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
The NZD/USD pair rose during the session on Tuesday, breaking the top of the hammer that had formed on Monday. That of course is a very bullish sign, but we did give back a little bit of the gains towards the end of the day. It is possible that this market will go higher, perhaps hitting the 0.84 level. However, this is not going to be the easiest of moves going forward, and as a result it is going to be choppy at best.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Fed Taper Is Almost Dead Certainty But May Not Trigger USD Rally Yet / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Justin Pugsley writes: The economic and political hurdles for the US Federal Reserve to taper its bond purchases are steadily being removed making it almost a dead certainty – but don't expect it to necessarily spur a USD rally, at least not yet.
It appears Democrats and Republicans are closing in on a deal over the US budget, which looks likely to avoid a confidence damaging shut-down of the US government early next year. On the economic front the surprisingly strong US jobs numbers last week and positive revisions to GDP are powerful incentives to start reining in the Fed's $85 billion a month bond purchasing programme.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 06, 2013
The Fate of U.S. Dollar Hegemony / Politics / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
Despite the quiet nature of things lately from a geopolitical standpoint, coupled with the mainstream media’s obsession with new nominal highs in the various paper indexes, there is definitely turbulence below the surface. There have already been a number of thought-provoking articles written regarding the future of dollar hegemony and the purpose of this week’s piece is to hopefully add to the discussion and stimulate some thought.
Friday, November 22, 2013
U.S. Dollar Index ETF Trading Strategy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We all know quantitative easing devalues the Dollar but contrary to that general statement it looks as though we could see the dollar index continue to rise for a few more weeks.
If we analyze the chart of the Dollar ETF (UUP) it is clear that the short term momentum has turned up. The break above the down trend line and recent bounce off support bodes well for the dollar index.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 18, 2013
US Dollar Index USD Rally Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
We believe that USD Index has now turned bullish after recent impulsive rise and breakout out of a downward channel. This breakout is important sign for a change in trend, even if just temporary. Based on a big picture with a triangle, we think that rise from 79.00 is wave D that will unfold in three legs towards 83 maybe even 84.00 region in weeks ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Why I Sell the U.S. Dollar: From Dollar Strength to Dollar Weakness / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Q3 of 2013 marked a peak and reversal of direction for the dollar. The notable strength in the dollar during Q2 turned into an equally prominent weakness in Q3 compared to a basket of foreign currencies. All of the G10 currencies strengthened against the dollar during Q3, while the price of gold rose more than 7%. See attached chart for the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index for the year through 10/31/2013.
Monday, November 04, 2013
US Dollar and Crude Oil…The Inflation / Deflation Battle Rages On / Commodities / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
There were some interesting developments this week that I would like to focus on in the Weekend Report. The most important thing to happen was the rebound in the US dollar that was very impressive. Is the bottom in or is this just a short covering rally that will peter out when it's finished? Oil continues to fall at a rapid rate which could be signaling another deflationary event maybe on the horizon. There are still a lot of crosscurrents out there but if we can get a good read on the US dollar and Oil that should help us understand what is likely to take place over the intermediate term.
Saturday, November 02, 2013
U.S. Dollar Surge Implications / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
A rather interesting development occurred on Friday, and one that I wasn't really expecting. The dollar sliced right through its intermediate trend line on its first attempt. I thought for sure we would see some kind of pullback from that trend line before a break. In my opinion this signals that there are a lot of people caught on the wrong side of this market.
Saturday, November 02, 2013
Does the U.S. Dollar Have a Future? / Politics / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
“If the dollar does indeed lose its role as leading international currency, the cost to the United States would probably extend beyond the simple loss of seigniorage, narrowly defined. We would lose the privilege of playing banker to the world, accepting short-term deposits at low interest rates in return for long-term investments at high average rates of return. When combined with other political developments, it might even spell the end of economic and political hegemony.”– Economist Menzie Chinn, “Will the Dollar Remain the World’s Reserve Currency in Five Years?”, CounterPunch 2009
Friday, November 01, 2013
Huge Cracks In US Financial Fortress, Petro-Dollar Final Death Throes / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Many analyst writers choose the Black Swan analogy to describe deeply ominous events in progress, with little forward notice. The analogy simply does not fit anymore, as an armada of black swans is more appropriate, spotted on regular and frequent sightings. The Jackass preference is to describe a series of major cracks in the financial fortress that defends the USDollar system and its decrepit USTreasury Bond shuttle buggy. The vehicle is overloaded with supply and bereft of investors, upheld by a printing press, explained by pure heresy. Its derivative coil on the undercarriage axel system is broken from the overdone leverage and hidden machinations. The integrity of the USD/USTB brand name was cast off the American coat of arms along with the Lehman Brothers killing to save Goldman Sachs, the adoption of Fannie Mae to conceal the fraud, and the AIG to contain the derivative payouts. The October Hat Trick Letter explains the Wall Street saga behind the scenes on the GSax rescue, managed by the USDept Treasury office. The US financial fortress died in September 2008, when the Jackass made the USGovt debt default forecast. What has happened in the following long five years has been an incredibly prolonged and desperate attempt, its creativity recognized, to extend life support to a corpse beset by necrosis and sclerosis, whose blood has turned toxic, lacking any oxygen (capital). The US nation has lost its way, no longer capable of comprehending capitalism. Its policy initiatives actively destroy precious capital on the banker altar, celebrating the dark side with celebrations of fire. The emaciated body economic is being prepared to be handled by the JPMorgue for processing.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
U.S. Dollar Long-term View / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I finally had to look at the monthly chart on the Dollar to get a handle on its position. I identified the Dollar being in a triangle pattern prior to the low in 2011. At that time, I surmised that we were looking at an Intermediate Wave (E). It was an easy mistake to make, since it had escaped the lower trendline as it typical of a Wave (E). However, having turned back at both the top and bottom trendline subsequently gave me pause. Looking at the long-term pattern suggests that the triangle may just be ending now with a second break of the lower trendline for Wave (E).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 27, 2013
Large Forex Speculators Cut US Dollar Bullish Bets to 7-month Low / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
CountingPips writes: The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, not published for close to a month due to the partial US government shutdown, was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures traders & speculators continued to decrease their bullish bets of the US dollar for a third week in a row on October 1st.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, cut their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $692.8 million as of Tuesday October 1st. This was a decline of $-2.89 billion from the total long position of $3.58 billion that was registered on September 24th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
How Long Until the U.S. Dollar Loses Its Reserve Currency Status? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: As Congress has come to a decision about the debt ceiling and kicked the can a few months down the road, I hear a significant amount of noise about the U.S. dollar losing its reserve currency status.
With this, I ask: could this really happen anytime soon?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Peter Schiff Warns Collapse Of The U.S. Dollar Is Unavoidable / Politics / US Dollar
By: GoldSilver
In a Q&A with GoldSilverWorlds, Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, explained why the mother of all collapses is still in front of us and shared his top tips on how to protect financially.
Peter Schiff has an outspoken libertarian view on the world and economics. It is no coincidence he will be one of the keynote speakers at the first Liberty Forum Conference 2013 on December 4 to 8. His libertarian view was mainly influenced by his father, more so than any of the books he has read. From a young age, he discussed with his father topics related to government, economics, the Constitution, and history of the US. His personal view and the free market oriented perspective were a perfect fit even if these ideas were in contrast with the majority of economic experts and governments. According to Schiff “many people just buy the establishment; they accept a lot of nonsense.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 12, 2013
How Much Longer Will the Dollar be the Reserve Currency? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes:
We use the term “reserve currency” when referring to the common use of the dollar by other countries when settling their international trade accounts. For example, if Canada buys goods from China, it may pay China in US dollars rather than Canadian dollars, and vice versa. However, the foundation from which the term originated no longer exists, and today the dollar is called a “reserve currency” simply because foreign countries hold it in great quantity to facilitate trade.
Friday, October 04, 2013
U.S. Government Shutdown: Next Step Dollar Collapse? / Politics / US Dollar
By: Sahil_Hafeez
Not a single person might make a conciliatory sentiment for rehashing cautioning that, on account of the grim Obama administration and Republicans, Uncle Sam is closed down. Genuine monetary analysts are currently anticipating mobs in the streets that there is presently nothing the USA can do to avert the fall of its currency, and its economy. It has no reserves to back its worth, and has the most indebted country in the world, is dependant of the credit from America's previous foes. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 01, 2013
Room For More U.S. Dollar Weakness After The Government Shutdown / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD is sharply down across the board after the US government shutdown. Some would think that US stocks futures will turn lower, but we in fact can see higher prices since the news came out. However, we may see a risk aversion (lower stocks) if government will be shutdown for too long, lets say around 3 weeks. In the past the longest close was 21 days, back in 1995 (source Wikipedia). The longer the shutdown will last, more nervous investors will become.
Friday, September 20, 2013
U.S. Dollar Still Hanging on the Fiat Cliff / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
Arguably, throughout the ages, money and the immense power it manifests, is the most potent driver of systemic corruption.
Further to such argument, it is self-evident that high-level branches of modern-day governments and their attendant institutions alongside private foundations and transnational corporate alliances have been wholly subject to such corruption for centuries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
U.S. Dollar Outlook: Taper, Yellen and German Elections / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Why are the markets so excited that the smartest guy in the room takes his name out of the running for the (second?) most powerful job in the world? With Larry Summers no longer holding back the markets, what's next for the dollar, currencies and gold?
Thursday, September 05, 2013
U.S. Dollar Clues for Trend Over Next Few Months / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to show you some charts on the US dollar that is finally showing a little action after a month or so of chopping around towards the lows. I have many different looks that might give us a clue or two on what to expect over the next month or so.
The first chart is a 6 month daily chart that shows a potential double inverse H&S bottoming formation. As you can see the smaller inverse H&S #1 had a nice long bar on the breakout followed by a backtest the next day. That completed the smaller inverse H&S bottom. The rally only lasted one day which gave us a point to drawn in the 2nd Neckline. The price action is now getting ready to backtest NL #1 again that would create the right shoulder for the bigger inverse H&S #2. So this is a critical backtest taking place in the next day or two to the 81.90 area. If neckline #1 can hold support the price objective of the bigger H&S bottom would be up to the 84.85 area which would be back at the previous high made in July.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
U.S. Dollar Gains Strength Off Remarks of the Federal Reserve Bank / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Brett Chatz writes: US dollar gains ground against all of its major trading partners. The US dollar held firm and gained ground against most of its major trading partners in the currency markets. This about-turn in expectation materialized after a poor forecast for US durable goods failed to dampen the dollar’s appreciation against major world currencies. Economists pointed out that the dollar had gained ground against most of the 16 traded currencies. Further news for investors is that the Fed looks set to cut bond purchases in upcoming months. The dollar gains were however halted after John Kerry (US Secretary of State) declared that President Barack Obama will hold the government of Syria responsible for its actions. This is seen as a potentially dramatic shift in foreign policy after the administration seemingly backpedalled on its red line comments.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 22, 2013
US Dollar Index Five Waves Up Points to Higher USD / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD found some support an hour back or so, after disappointing US Unemployment claims. So I decided to check the intra-day structure on USD Index to see where the buck is positioned and headed next. Well, on the line chart I can see some very clear impulse to the upside, but its presented on a line chart. Its a clear five wave move with a textbook example of an extended wave three. If you are still learning Elliott Wave, then I suggest you to save and print this chart.
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
U.S. Dollar Index Forming A Complex Correction – Elliott Wave Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD Index is trading lower for few weeks now but decline from 85.00 has a corrective look for now so we suspect its part of a larger complex correction from May highs. We are tracking a W)-X)-Y) correction, so if we are correct the USD should find a support somewhere around 80.30-81.00 level.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 10, 2013
U.S. Dollar - Time to Worry? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Four weeks ago, the USD index hit 3-year highs, metals licked their wounds from the biggest decline in decades and the US growth story stood out in the headline. The Fed was considered the only major central bank capable of scaling down its quantitative easing, while the ECB mulled cutting interest rates to zero. The greenback was boosted by a powerful combination of fundamental and technical moving in tandem.
Thursday, August 08, 2013
Bye Bye Euro, Hello U.S. Dollar! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Marc_Horn
It has been a while!!! My wife and I are cruising in Oman and internet access is not widely available! But when I saw this today I really felt I should make the effort!
Talk about coincidence.... or not. Today the Euro has so far failed to make a new high, by a tiny margin and provided it fails to make a new high it has only one way to go - DOWN - it is in centi-3 of deci -3 of daily-3 of weekly-3 of monthly-3 !!!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 07, 2013
U.S. Dollar Breaks Support, The Next Currency Crisis has Begun! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
Today the dollar broke through 80.40. This is a major development as it signals that the current daily cycle topped in only 2 days, thus confirming that the intermediate cycle has also topped.
Tuesday, August 06, 2013
U.S. Dollar - A Diamond in the Rough? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today I want to take an in depth look at the US dollar as it is so important to the overall big picture regarding the deflationary outlook that appears to be headed our way. There are just two pieces of the puzzle that need to come into focus and one is a strong US dollar and the other is a weak oil price. Everything else seems to be lining up. I have many different charts for the US dollar that are showing us nothing is broken and basically this consolidation area is still developing.
Lets start with a daily chart for the US dollar that I showed you a while back that shows an expanding triangle forming. Notice the brown shaded support and resistance zone that is made off the top of the blue 5 point triangle reversal pattern just below. As you can see this expanding triangle has been getting bigger so has the volatility been increasing. This is volatility to the max.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Concerned about the U.S. Dollar? How to Manage Dollar Risk / Commodities / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Are you concerned about the U.S. dollar? Are these concerns justified? If so, what do you do about it?
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
USD Index Could Find A Support Around 82.00 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD Index has moved out of wave B range yesterday so prices are now already in wave C, final leg of a three wave decline. As such, traders must be aware of a trend reversal, especially if we consider that move out of a triangle is final within the larger structure. From a confirmation point of view we need an impulsive rally back through 83.15 to turn bullish on the buck.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Frustrations of a Portfolio Manager: Why I Sell the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Markets are meant to exert the maximum amount of frustration on investors; indeed, the markets have lived up to their side of the bargain. To survive and possibly thrive in the business, portfolio managers need to be a special breed. This newsletter is a bit different from our typical analysis in that I provide insight as to how I approach the markets, what makes me get up in the morning, and how you can get the most out of your portfolio manager.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Major Bank Makes A Freudian Slip About The U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
The cognitive dissonance about the dollar never fails to amaze me. People know in their bones that their dollars will be worth a lot less in the future...yet they continue to trust and cling to the dollar as a store of value. They invest in things denominated in dollars that pay interest well below the rate of inflation. Or they go for all out gambling in the stock market to have a hope of outpacing inflation enough to build a tiny bit of wealth to leave to their grandkids.
Wednesday, July 03, 2013
Why the Rising U.S. Dollar is Still Doomed to Crash / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes: Many have wondered - and rightly so - why the U.S. dollar is rising even though the U.S. Federal Reserve has done just about everything possible to debase the currency over the past five years.
Over the past two years, the U.S. Dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major world currencies, is up by more than 12.6%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
U.S. Dollar At Risk? Case for Profiting from Managing Currency Risk / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The “cleanest” dirty shirt, the U.S. dollar, is down versus the euro so far this year; and was down last year. Yet, S&P, in upgrading the credit outlook of the U.S., cites U.S. dollar strength. If this is a strong dollar environment, are investors prepared for a weak one? With plenty of dirty laundry in the world, we ponder how investors might be able to profit from actively managing currency risk.
Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Sell the U.S. Dollar? Case for Hard Currencies / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The Fed’s “tapering,” the dollar’s up, bonds are down. Is this time to bet on the greenback, or to diversify out of the dollar? We believe the dollar may not only have gotten ahead of itself, it also rallied for the wrong reasons. Only the future will tell whether this is an opportunity to sell the dollar, but we can look at risks and opportunities presented.
Thursday, May 30, 2013
The Rise and Fall of the U.S. Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
By: Mark_Thornton
Over the last century America’s money—the dollar—has come to dominate the global monetary system. It is used not just by Americans, but in other countries, in the global black market, and by importers and exporters. And it is the primary reserve currency for central banks. This status is what Barry Eichengreen calls an “exorbitant privilege,” because it confers numerous benefits to individuals, companies, and governments. Collectively, it also confers the ability for Americans to consume beyond our ability to produce.
Monday, May 20, 2013
The Feds Are Worried About the U.S. Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
Over the past month there has been a statistically improbable concurrence of events that can only be explained as a conspiracy to protect the dollar from the Federal Reserve’s policy of Quantitative Easing (QE).
Quantitative Easing is the term given to the Federal Reserve’s policy of printing 1,000 billion new dollars annually in order to finance the US budget deficit by purchasing US Treasury bonds and to keep the prices high of debt-related derivatives on the “banks too big to fail” (BTBF) balance sheets by purchasing mortgage-backed derivatives. Without QE, interest rates would be much higher, and values on the banks’ balance sheets would be much lower.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 17, 2013
US Dollar Ends Another 9 Year Down Cycle / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Recent rallies in Non-USD currencies resulting from poor US data have not lasted long. And those rallies resulting from strong US figures via the indirect effect of rallying equities (risk-on) have not lasted either. Broadening pro-USD sentiment may stay for longer than we had thought as the US dollar index has exited from another 9-year down cycle.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Dollar Crisis, the Coming Collapse of US Global Hegemony / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
Colin Todhunter writes: The US is bankrupt. Yet Uncle Sam continues to stride the world stage and can simply print more money to get by because the dollar is the world's reserve currency. Remove it as the reserve currency, and the US will no longer be able to remain supreme or fund its wars by relying on what would then be a worthless paper currency. Today, more than 60 percent of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in US dollars, and the US will attempt to prevent countries moving off the dollar by any means possible.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Don't Bet Against a Surging U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Ben Gersten writes:
In the midst of a brewing currency war, Japan's out-of-control monetary policy has caused the yen to fall to an almost five-year low against the U.S. dollar.
With an economy one-third the size of that of the United States, Japan has committed itself to a fiscal program that's almost double the U.S. Federal Reserve's current $85- billion a month stimulus.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 08, 2013
USD Index Forming A Bullish Reversal Pattern / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD index reversed higher last week from 81.32. This appears to be a first impulsive structure that is part of a larger and new bullish cycle for the dollar.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Warning U.S. Dollar Collapse Underway, Massive Shortages in Gold and Silver / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
I've been pointing out for several months now that the recent rally in the dollar was a mirage, an illusion generated by the yen, euro, pound, and Canadian dollar all dropping into yearly, or intermediate cycle lows together. This selling pressure in the four major currencies that make up the dollar index spawned what looked like a strong dollar.
Wednesday, May 01, 2013
The Rising U.S. Dollar Myth / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Year-to-date, the U.S. dollar is up; does that mean we are in a rising dollar environment? Or is it an opportunity to diversify out of the greenback?
Sunday, April 28, 2013
GBP/USD Corrective Rally Could Extend To 1.56 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The GBP/USD finally broke higher on Thursday, after a recent unsuccessful push through the lower support line connected from early March lows. Notice that the pair closed well above 1.5407 trend-line on Thursday, which sets a stage for a new impulsive rally, now towards the 1.5500/1.5600 area.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 19, 2013
U.S. Dollar and Assets - America’s ‘Exorbitant’ Privilege Will Continue / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Mills
In July 1944, delegates from 44 nations met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire - the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference - and agreed to “peg” their currencies to the U.S. dollar, the only currency strong enough to meet the rising demands for international currency transactions.
Member nations were required to establish a parity of their national currencies in terms of the US dollar, the "peg", and to maintain exchange rates within plus or minus one percent of parity, the "band."
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
U.S. Dollar DownTrend Confirmed / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
Just another quick post tonight. As I have been saying for over a year now, the dollar will not make new highs, and it will collapse as the consequences of QE infinity ultimately take their toll.
Today the dollar confirmed that an intermediate degree decline has begun by closing strongly below the previous daily cycle low. A new pattern of lower lows and lower highs has now begun. (Although the dollar is due for a bounce sometime soon, but it should fail to make new highs and quickly continue the pattern of lower lows and lower highs.)
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Say Goodbye to the Purchasing Power of the Dollar - Bernanke Goes to Crazytown / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adam_Taggart
On a long solo car trip last week, I listened to several podcasts to pass the time. One was a classic: The Invention of Money, originally released by NPR's Planet Money team back in January of 2011. I highly recommend listening (or re-listening) to it in full.
The podcast is an effective reminder of how any currency in a monetary system is a fabricated construct. A simpler way to explain this is to say it has value simply because we believe it does.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 25, 2013
The U.S. Dollar and the Real Inflation Story / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
I can’t tell you how many talking heads I've watched in the media recently touting the strong dollar. Sometimes I really wonder whether Homo sapiens are an intelligent life form. Remember, this is the same species that created the Tulip mania … and the tech, and real estate bubble.
Folks, in the real world it just isn't possible to have a strong dollar if you are counterfeiting 85 billion of them a month. That’s just basic common sense, which seems to be an extremely rare commodity in the world today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 23, 2013
U.S. Dollar Fiat Cliff / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
I would like to start this piece by recommending a rather thorough and viable chart study of the US dollar by an analyst writing under the pseudonym Rambus, titled Dollar Bears Prepare to Hibernate. Rambus has produced some excellent charts in this piece along with sound analysis, and in my view, provided readers with valuable information and insights.
It is my hope that Rambus and the readership at large will not mind if I attempt to add another layer to his cogent work.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 18, 2013
U.S. Dollar Bears Prepare to Hibernate / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today I would like to show you the Chartology of the US Dollar based on charts from the short term to the very long term that are painting a positive picture for the US Dollar. What I’m seeing on the charts is not going to be just a short term event type thing but a longer multi year positive change for the dollar. Understanding the movements in the dollar can help us understand other movements in other areas of the markets which is very important to getting the big picture right. If you can get the big picture and trend right that goes along way in knowing which side of the market to be on. In a bull market you want to trade with the uptrend and when your in a bear market you want to trade with the downtrend. This is simple to understand but much harder to do in practice. So with that said lets take a good long hard look at the US dollar and see what the charts are telling us.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Fiat U.S. Dollar Approaching Resistance In Middle Of Trading Range / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Noonan
The best thing about reading developing market activity is that it leads you to a logical conclusion, and when things are not clear, that too, is a logical conclusion, saying: No edge, stay away. Because charts are the visual form of final decisions made by all participants, we are getting the best source for collective thinking about a market's direction. What we get to do is read what message the market is sending.
It is always important to put the market into a context. Many traders are eager to "catch the next move," often based upon a myopic view of price behavior. Most who look at charts view the daily and intra day, looking for the next winner, often getting another loser. Here is a current daily:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 11, 2013
Forex Fiat U.S. Dollar Index – Charting Imagination / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Noonan
Federal Reserves Notes, [FRNs], are not "dollars," despite the purposefully deceptive mislabeling of them, [mis]using that noun. FRNs are commercial debt instruments, issued by the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank whose owners are responsible for the largest Ponzi scheme [un]known to man. Some get it, the vast majority do not.
[For those incapable of dealing with facts that shake their reality, you can skip to the charts, below, or just skip this commentary in its entirety. The Rothschild Formula, what we call the Great Ponzi Scheme, is unraveling.]
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Is the Fed Doping the Greenback? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
For seven years Ben Bernanke has played Master of the Universe, that is, has been Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Bernanke vehemently denies his actions put the US economy at risk. Au contraire, having prevented the US economy's collapse, the Fed's actions have yielded profits to taxpayers. Naysayers lament money doesn't grow on trees, value can't be created through the printing press.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
The Fed’s Plan B - "We're Going to Kill the Dollar" / Politics / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
How do you solve a problem when you’re running a 10% fiscal budget deficit? You are not going to get growth without private sector credit demand. The government’s idea right now is that we’re going to export our way out of this, and when I asked a senior member of the Obama administration last week how are we going to grow exports if we will not allow nominal wage deflation? He said, “We’re going to kill the dollar.” Kyle Bass interview.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Comex Pressure Point, The Coming Isolation Of The US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The typical human reaction to any infection, vermin, danger, or toxicity is to stand back, to isolate the agent, to trap it, to prevent its further spread or release, then to remove it in a safe secure way if possible using trained professionals. Eventually decisions must be made on the level of acceptable risk on the removal, like what is willing to be lost or damaged or killed in the process. Risk analysis, cost trade-offs, and minimization decisions must be evaluated and executed. The toxic agent in global trade, global banking, and global bond market is the USDollar. In 2009, the Jackass began making a certain firm point. Those nations that depart from the entire USDollar system early will be the leading nations in the next chapter, with stronger foundations, richer solvency, emerging economies, healthier financial markets, efficient credit engines, growing wealth, stronger political helm activity, and better functioning systems generally. Imagine a contaminated blood system that infects, corrupts, and destroys all interior organs from the spread of the toxin.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
US Dollar Index Very Long Term Chart - A Rake's Progress / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jesse
Here is an end of year update on the very long term US dollar chart, la douleur du monde.
As a reminder, this is a chart based on the DX dollar index.
That index is woefully out of date with the progress of the world economy and the currency wars with their competitive devaluations and rising currencies of the developing nations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Dissecting the US Dollar, Biotech – The Next Major Bull Market After 2020 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Sometimes a very simple picture can replace 1000 words, so as such, this brief update will illustrate what is driving the market. There was a minor shooting star doji put in place yesterday, which suggests weakness into the start of next week before starting to rise towards 81.5. Other charts that will be presented on Wednesday will illustrate that the coming top will be just that and in the process, create a setup for a very sharp decline. After wave [E] completed a long-term triangle, a subsequent cliff-like decline occurred, which appears to take the form of an elongated flat to form wave (A).
Wednesday, December 05, 2012
More Cracks Appear for U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: The U.S. dollar has been the world’s reserve currency for decades, but that position might be under attack. With the rising level of U.S. debt, many countries around the world are questioning the position of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 05, 2012
U.S. Dollar Cliff? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
As election euphoria settles and the "fiscal cliff" approaches, what are the implications for the dollar? Even as federal deficits may be unsustainable, stocks and bonds are up, and while the dollar may have resumed its long-term downward trend, the greenback has hardly fallen off a cliff. We look at how different tax policies might affect the U.S. dollar.
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Cost of Presidential Campaigns Show Big Problems for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: William_Bancroft
There has been much discussion recently about the growing cost of running to be President of the United States. The Presidency has been described as the ultimate recession proof commodity. Others might tell you it’s just the price to climb aboard and loot the good ship America.
Whatever is true, the dollar cost of getting into the Oval Office has been rising at a stunning pace, and this is no new phenomenon. Interestingly though, the cost in gold ounces of running for office has not been rising nearly so fast.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 08, 2012
U.S. Dollar Technical Analysis and Trend Forecast 2013 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
No surprise, Barrack Obama handily one the US election, which means that with silly season over, they voted the same rascals back into the White House instead of a different batch of rascals. In the end, Mickey Mouse or the Pope could have been stuck into power in the US, the fate of the currency was baked in the cake a long time ago and we are simply following the cycle path. Today's update will provide some clarity regarding the US Dollar Index, as the developing pattern is somewhat recognizable (Refer to Figure 7).
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Fiscal Cliff's Biggest Surprise Could Be a Rising U.S. Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
My grandmother Mimi had a saying that was as blunt as it was uncouth. "When the stuff hits the fan," she used to say, "it will not be evenly distributed."
This one came up often when she sensed that world events were about to take a turn for the worse.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
U.S. of A(sia) United to Weaken the U.S. Dollar?! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Our leaders want a weaker dollar and a stronger Chinese renminbi (RMB). That’s our assessment based on recent comments by President Obama, presidential hopeful Romney and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Bernanke. If you join them in that call, OK, just be careful what you wish for, or at least consider taking action to protect your portfolio.
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
What to Expect When U.S. Dollar Reign Comes to an End / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Lloyd Blankfein has got it all wrong again.
Speaking last week, the Chief Executive of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) claimed that if the "fiscal cliff" of tax increases and spending cuts go into effect on January 1, the U.S. dollar would lose its reserve currency status.
As the Vampire Squid's representatives often do, Blankfein actually has it backwards.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 03, 2012
The Fed Plays All Its Cards, Road Map for Currency Debasement / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
There never really could be much doubt that the current experiment in competitive global currency debasement would end in anything less than a total war. There was always a chance that one or more of the principal players would snap out of it, change course and save their citizenry from a never ending cycle of devaluation. But developments since September 13, when the U.S. Federal Reserve finally laid all its cards on the table and went "all in" on permanent quantitative easing, indicate that the brainwashing is widely established and will be difficult to break. The vast majority of the world's leading central bankers seem content to walk in lock step down the path of money creation as a means to economic salvation. Never mind that the path will prevent real growth and may ultimately lead off a cliff. The herd is moving. And if it can't be turned, the only thing that one can do is attempt to get out of its way.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Death Knells For The US Dollar, Gold Price Ready To Explode Upward / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to contaminate the financial body until it responds favorably was the last straw in my book. Witness a declaration of permanent QE and hyper monetary inflation of the most virulent strain, unsterilized. The USFed is essentially admitting failure. The signal serves as the loudest death knell for the USDollar among many in a sequence. On a similar parallel note, lighter and more humorous, one might be reminded of the pirate swash buckling style of yelling at the swabbies that the beatings will continue until morale improves. The QE bond monetization of USGovt debt has turned viral and entrenched. It is sold as stimulus, when in fact it acts like a giant wet blanket on the USEconomy. It is intended as stimulus to businesses, but the effect is felt on the financial speculation and on Asian direct business investment. In the past the emergency lever device had been successful only because it was used on a temporary basis. But now the USFed high priest assures it is a permanent fixture, a sign of their failure. The public is too ignorant to comprehend the ruin. They can only see the threat to their personal ruin.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Fed to Debase U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Is the Fed’s goal to debase the U.S. dollar? The Federal Reserve’s announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) might have been the worst kept secret, yet the dollar plunged upon the announcement. Here we share our analysis on what makes the FOMC tick, to allow investors to position themselves for what may be ahead.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
US Dollar Technical Analysis and Forecast, the Fate for Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The following article was presented to the benefit of subscribers on September 12th, 2012. Rather than mimic a few previous articles I have penned, this one will focus on technical analysis of one Index, with interspersed commentary fitting to what is observed. The most interesting part I found from all of the analysis is how well the Elliott Wave pattern of the US Dollar Index matched initial expectations. At the end of the article, it is hoped that the reader has a better understanding of how economic situations unfolding over the next 8-12 months are going to ultimately hinge on the path of the US Dollar.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
U.S. Dollar: Don't worry, be happy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
May we suggest a Twitter version of today's FOMC statement: "Don't worry, be happy! " – No, the economic outlook hasn't improved. In fact, the Fed may want you to take a valium to stomach the ride ahead. Alternatively, if you don't get mollified by the Fed's "communication strategy", you may want to consider taking action to protect the purchasing power of your hard earned dollars.
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Ron Paul, How Long Will the U.S. Dollar Remain the World's Reserve Currency? / Politics / US Dollar
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
We frequently hear the financial press refer to the U.S. dollar as the "world's reserve currency," implying that our dollar will always retain its value in an ever shifting world economy. But this is a dangerous and mistaken assumption.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 26, 2012
The US Dollar, the World's Controller / Politics / US Dollar
By: Pravda
The administration of Britain's Standard Chartered Bank has been accused of violating U.S. laws this week. The bank allegedly concealed illegal operations with Iranian financial institutions in circumvention of U.S. sanctions against Tehran. How can one accuse a non-US company of violating U.S. law? It can be possible due to the use of dollars in settlements.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Expect Stronger U.S. Dollar, More Volatility Heading into September / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Elliot_H_Gue
Recent economic data unambiguously shows that the European Union (EU) has slipped into a recession, with little sign that a turnaround will occur soon. In fact, with most European countries facing additional rounds of fiscal austerity, the EU economy is poised to get worse before it eventually finds its footing.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 23, 2012
Rising U.S. Dollar Forces Bernanke’s Hand / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Could it be that world governments and central banks are now taking drastic measures to re-inflate their economies because they don’t believe their own economic statistics? For example, China reported that GDP growth came in at 7.6% last quarter. That’s slower growth, but still not so bad. However, China’s electricity consumption has slowed much faster than growth in official GDP (electricity generation was unchanged in June from a year earlier at 393.4 billion kilowatt-hours), when they normally move in tandem. Turning to the U.S., the Labor Department announced last week that initial jobless claims fell 26k to 350k. Sounds great…but wait. Digging into the unadjusted data, there was actually an increase of 69,971 claims for the week—an increase of 19% from the week prior. Now that’s some seasonal adjustment!Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Gold to Outshine U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
As the price of gold has gone up fivefold over the past 10 years, why would one buy it at today's prices? For the same reason an investor would buy any other asset: if one believed it would be a good investment now, that is if one believed it may appreciate in value and add portfolio diversification benefits. A key reason to hold gold today might be to prepare for the crisis tomorrow.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
US Dollar: Wave Counts, Flight-to-Safety? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
In light of how political systems have so utterly ruined the purpose and utility of the modern worlds essential and fungible units of exchange, and despite the oxymoron in our alluding to a flight-to-safety, we shall nonetheless endeavor to add a meaningful level of clarity to the disposition of the US dollar.
Friday, June 08, 2012
Strong U.S. Dollar Fallacy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
After a shocking upset in Greece’s parliamentary elections, the US dollar surged dramatically. Soaring 5.4% in May alone, the world’s reserve currency won legions of fans among traders. “King Dollar” was universally lauded, with everyone jumping on the strong-dollar bandwagon. But this dazzling strength was merely a short-term phenomenon. Zoom out a little, and today’s “strong dollar” is a fallacy.
Thursday, June 07, 2012
What's Next for the U.S. Dollar? QE3? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The dismal U.S. jobs report for May, released last Friday, caused the price of gold to soar as the market appears to be pricing in an ever-greater chance of "QE3" - another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). But given that 10-year government debt is already down at 1.5%, the Fed may dive deeper into its toolbox in an effort to jumpstart the economy. Investors may want to consider taking advantage of the recent U.S. dollar rally to diversify out of the greenback ahead of QE3.
Wednesday, June 06, 2012
Reasons Why the U.S. Dollar is Really Rising / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
By all accounts, the U.S. dollar should be the functional equivalent of a Zimbabwean bill.
The Fed has pumped trillions into the worldwide financial system as part of misguided stimulus efforts that should be incredibly inflationary.
Yet, instead of a disastrous repeat of the Weimar Republic, the U.S. dollar has strengthened considerably.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 01, 2012
China and Japan Abandon U.S. Dollar as a Means of Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In the next month China and Japan (China's main trading partner) will no longer use the U.S. dollar as the only currency in trade with each other. They will use the Yuan and the Yen directly with each other. This will see the dollar removed from a large chunk of the world's trade -in itself, not a very large percentage, but a significant one. It's the start of a trend that is set to grow. We've no doubt that China is tailoring its trade with all its trading partners to use the dollar only so far as it is required to deal with the U.S. and other dollar-dependent nations. Oil from Russia utilizes the Yuan and Rouble, and Australia has arranged a similar deal.
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Reform of US Monetary System: Message of 12 Year Old Goes Viral / Politics / US Dollar
By: Ellen_Brown
The youtube video of 12 year old Victoria Grant speaking at the Public Banking in America conference last month has gone viral, topping a million views on various websites.Monetary reform—the contention that governments, not banks, should create and lend a nation’s money—has rarely even made the news, so this is a first. Either the times they are a-changin’, or Victoria managed to frame the message in a way that was so simple and clear that even a child could understand it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2012
U.S. Dollar and Manipulation Control the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the weekend I had an interesting conversation with a local trader. We typically meet a few times a year to share our market outlooks, new trading tools and techniques, and usually finish our session off in a debate about the US market manipulation and how to trade around it.
Talking about market manipulation always opens up a can of worms and sparks some interesting theories… And while everyone has their own views and opinion on this subject I thought I would briefly share the main points I pulled from our conversation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 03, 2012
US Stocks Fight to Hold Up While EU and US Data Give Mixed Signals / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Investors and traders just can’t seem to catch a break when it comes to economic news. For example Tuesday in the United States we saw strong ISM manufacturing numbers which surprised the market. The numbers were way above expectations and it triggered a feeding frenzy in US based investments like stocks and the green back.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 26, 2012
The Fed and their Influence on Gold and the US Dollar, Behind The Curve! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: UnpuncturedCycle
I am not surprised to see that the Federal Reserve on Wednesday stood pat on interest rates and said economic growth will remain moderate over coming quarters and then only pick up gradually. The decision to make no changes was expected. Economists think the Fed will wait for more data before deciding how to proceed next. Recent data, such as the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department, point to a slowing pace of economic growth. In a statement, the Fed announced that it will leave its target range for its federal-funds rate unchanged at 0 to 0.25% — as it has for every meeting since December 2008. The central bank also did not change the forecast that “exceptionally low rates” will be here until late 2014. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker cast the lone dissent, continuing a trend at all three meetings this year. Lacker, one of the more hawkish regional Fed presidents, has argued against the 2014 rate forecast.
Thursday, April 26, 2012
So Long to the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Marin_Katusa
Marin Katusa, Casey Research writes: There's a major shift under way, one the US mainstream media has left largely untouched even though it will send the United States into an economic maelstrom and dramatically reduce the country's importance in the world: the demise of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
For decades the US dollar has been absolutely dominant in international trade, especially in the oil markets. This role has created immense demand for US dollars, and that international demand constitutes a huge part of the dollar's valuation. Not only did the global-currency role add massive value to the dollar, it also created an almost endless pool of demand for US Treasuries as countries around the world sought to maintain stores of petrodollars. The availability of all this credit, denominated in a dollar supported by nothing less than the entirety of global trade, enabled the American federal government to borrow without limit and spend with abandon.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 12, 2012
The War at the End of the U.S. Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
By: Ron_Hera
The history of the U.S. dollar is closely linked to U.S. involvement in a series of wars. The Bretton Woods Accord and the resulting world reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar were both byproducts of World War II (1939-1945). The Korean War (1950-1953) was followed six years later by the Vietnam War (1959-1975) which led to the end of the Bretton Woods system. Unfettered by the constraint of gold backing after 1971, the U.S. dollar became a weapon in the Cold War (1945–1991) between the U.S. and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.). Each war corresponded with an increase in the U.S. money supply. The Gulf War (1990-1991) was followed by wars in Afghanistan, beginning in 2001, and in Iraq, beginning in 2003, and, simultaneously, by the U.S.-led War on Terror that began in 2001. Like the wars that came before them, the recent staccato of U.S. wars is correlated with increases in the U.S. money supply. The Iraq war, for example, is estimated to have cost as much as $4 trillion.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
The U.S. Dollar Remains the Preferred Choice of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Asha_Bangalore
The IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) database continues to indicate that dollar remains the preferred reserve currency. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the dollar made up 62.1% of official reserves vs. 61.8% in the third quarter. The dollar accounted for 61.4% of official reserves in 2011 vs. 61.8% in 2010 and 62% in 2009.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 04, 2012
Emerging Markets Look to Drop BRICS on U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_McWhinnie
On Friday, gold prices increased $17.10 per ounce while silver gained 49 cents. Despite volatile trading for the precious metals, both logged positive gains for the first quarter of 2012. Gold climbed about 6.5 percent and silver surged 16 percent. Both metals continue to receive support as countries around the world weigh financial fears. Reports of a new emerging market bank are highlighting concerns about troubled currencies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Is the US Dollar Headed for a Major Fall? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
One of the facts of life over the last 40 years has been that the U.S. dollar is the world's sole global reserve currency. This is despite the fundamental factors underlying the U.S. balance of payments, which has been awful over that entire time. Nevertheless, the dollar ruled the global monetary system through these four decades and appears to be doing so still. But is that coming to an end? Next week there is a meeting of the BRIC nation over the use by the U.S. of the SWIFT system to block Iran from selling its oil. The BRIC nations are buyers of that oil. Their views on Iran's nuclear policies do not go as far as refusing to buy their oil. The SWIFT system is the system used to make international payments and covers most acceptable currencies.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Can Bernanke Break the U.S. Dollar Rally? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
In response to a bursting real estate and credit bubble in 2007 Bernanke's solution was to crank up the printing press and flood the world with dollar bills. Unfortunately it didn't solve our problems, it only made them worse. The real estate and credit bubbles stayed busted, but that liquidity had to land somewhere. In 2008 it went straight into the energy and agricultural markets spiking the price of crude, gasoline and food. This in turn collapsed a fragile global economy that was already reeling from the real estate implosion. The end result was the exact opposite of what Benjamin intended. Instead of halting the real estate collapse he just magnified the severity of the recession.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Falling U.S. Treasury Bonds, A Currency Perspective / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
What are the implications for the U.S. dollar and investors’ portfolios if bond prices continue to fall, as they have of late? Within that context, should investors care whether the U.S. retains its status as a “reserve currency”? Should it effect the way investors think about their own cash reserves?
Sunday, February 19, 2012
The US Dollar in the week ahead / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Dr. Chad Bennis writes: The rally in the US dollar beginning in November of last year saw a series of higher highs and higher lows in the price of the index. While the price action moved higher the stochastic indicator showed a bearish divergence as each successive higher high in the price action was reflected by a lower high in the stochastic indicator. This is known as bearish divergence and means that the current uptrend in price is getting weaker with each higher high in the price of the index.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
How U.S. Dollar Value Fit Into the Economy Big Picture? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
More credit is denominated in U.S. dollars than any other currency. What does this mean for the value of the dollar as the credit crisis continues its strangle-hold on the world economies?
Enjoy this video clip of Bob Prechter from an October interview with The Mind of Money host Douglass Lodmell, in which Bob discusses the debt implosion and the value of the U.S. dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 29, 2012
U.S. Economy Q4 2011 GDP Trouble Below The Surface / Economics / US Dollar
By: Tony_Pallotta
The release of Q4 2011 GDP highlighted just how close the US economy is to actual contraction as well as how vulnerable it is to the events in Europe. On the surface the 2.8% growth was a nice rebound from the 1.8% growth in Q3 2011.
But like anything if you dig beneath the headline you will see three areas of concern. Interesting that just two days before this release when asked about the recent uptick in economic activity Chairman Bernanke was less optimistic than the reporter asking the question. Apparently he was privy to the soon to be released data.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 26, 2012
The Broken U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
It has been my theory that this year we would see one of the worst performances by the stock market since 2008. However that has always been dependent on Bernanke not being able to break the dollar's rally out of its three year cycle low. As of this morning the dollar has printed a failed daily cycle. More often than not a failed daily cycle is an indication that an intermediate degree decline has begun.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Will Iran Kill the PetroDollar? / Politics / US Dollar
By: Marin_Katusa
Marin Katusa, Casey Research writes: The official line from the United States and the European Union is that Tehran must be punished for continuing its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The punishment: sanctions on Iran's oil exports, which are meant to isolate Iran and depress the value of its currency to such a point that the country crumbles.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Sovereigns Declare War on US Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
By: Chris_Blasi
Iranian Crisis Evolving into Dollar Hegemony and Western Power Challenge
Profoundly significant news came out of the Middle East on Monday January 23, 2012. The headline via DEBKAfile* reads:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 23, 2012
Bullish Set Up on US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: readtheticker
The US Federal Reserve meets next week (Jan 24/25) and many are expecting Bernanke to release the next financial QE details. The markets are poised for Ben next market leading action.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Eye on U.S. Dollar vs Commodity Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
One chart set-up that we need to watch closely in the coming hours and days is the comparison of the dollar and commodity indexes, as their directional price implications could have a major impact on a cross-section of markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
U.S. Dollar Premature Obituaries / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Professor_Emeritus
It is open season for wild monetary prognostications. More premature obituaries on the dollar have been posted on the Internet. For example, see Jim Willie's The US Dollar Paper Tiger (Gold-Eagle, January 11) with epitaphs like "the U.S. dollar rising to the cemetery", or "dollar death dance". Or see another article, Jeff Nielsen's entitled Maximum Fraud in U.S. Treasurys (Gold-Eagle, January 3). It betrays maximum misunderstanding about keeping the dollar on a life-support system. It assumes that the Fed and the U.S. Treasury are fighting tooth and nail to keep the value of government debt high lest it collapse in want of support from Japan, China, and other countries.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
U.S. Dollar Threats, the Paper Tiger / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Events in the last decade displayed a vigorous effort to defend the USDollar. The rogue nation of Iraq sold crude oil in Euros for three years, until they were liberated. Its tyrant was a scourge to be sure. Weapons of financial mass destruction seem to have replaced the traditional type, the new variety being derivatives, mortgage bonds, and even sovereign bonds from weak nations. Newer weapons from the United States feature extended hands from clearing house fronts that snatch and grab segregated private accounts, and backdoor raids of exchange traded fund precious metal. Let's not overlook the more frontal assault weapons deployed like unseating Qaddafi and capturing his gold held in foreign accounts, along with all that cash. Liberation has its benefits. The confrontation with Iran would be comical if not so dangerous. The claims have been silly in my view for years, in the perception of Iran as a serious threat to the West. They have been subjected to cut communication lines on the Persian Gulf seabed. They have been subjected to Stuxnet viruses to obstruct their nuclear refinement process, via the Siemens rear door. They have been subjected to an influx of heroin from the north, where the USMilitary manages the Afghan situation and locale.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
U.S. Dollar's Lucky Streak / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Recent U.S. economic data, such as the modest drop in the unemployment rate and the massive expansion of consumer credit, have suggested that the American economy is finally recovering. Opposite conclusions are being thrown at Europe, where many are convinced that recession is returning. Not surprisingly then, the dollar is currently hitting a multi-year high against the euro. The strength of the dollar itself is often held up as one of the major proof points that the U.S. economy is "improving." But the data points that I believe really matter continue to suggest an economy on life support. I believe that the dollar is rising for reasons that have nothing to do with America's economic health.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Huh? When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands, it’s actually U.S. Dollar Bullish!? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Aftab_Singh
If you ever happen to acquire an inclination for being the subject of disrepute and ridicule I highly recommend endorsing the conceit alluded to in the title. Apparently this issue is ‘so obvious’ that even gold bugs and government officials can reach common ground via the contention that I’m deluded. My folly — if you will — is to maintain that dollar debasement can be bullish for the dollar vis-à-vis other currencies at present. Since this long-standing conviction of ours is once again being corroborated by price action in the currency markets I thought I’d attempt to convince you that I’m not completely crazy. Here I outline why dollar debasement is bullish for the dollar against other fiat currencies in this environment.
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
U.S. Dollar Forecast 2012, How to Play A Short-Term Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Larry D. Spears writes:
The U.S. dollar will start 2012 on an upswing - but don't let it fool you.
What we're seeing is only a short-term rally inspired by Europe's travails. In the long-term, the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and the United States' own debt burden will drive the greenback back down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 19, 2011
Time for a Two-Month Trade Against the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyWealth
I believe gold hit a bottom last week, and I believe it will enter a multi-month rally starting now.
I also believe that the U.S. dollar hit a near-term peak this week, and I believe it will enter a multi-month downtrend, starting now.
Monday, December 05, 2011
US Dollar Technical Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tony_Pallotta
In the coming weeks you will hear me discuss the current trade as a "credit event that equity will be forced to acknowledge." It is important to understand what will drive equity prices. The main stream media will make up "excuses" for price action but I believe as always they will be misguided.
Saturday, December 03, 2011
Euro Dollars - The Great Dollar Overhang and Missing M3 Component - Gold and Silver / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jesse
These figures are from the Preliminary BIS Reports of November 2011 which reflect reporting bank positions as of the Jun 2011 quarter. Obviously therefore they do not yet reflect the recent Fed expansion of the swap lines for dollars. The first chart represents the total dollars held by banks as 'foreign currency.'
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
U.S. Dollar Teetering on the Abyss / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
We all better hope I'm wrong on this one, but I think the CRB just put in its three year cycle low in October. I'm also afraid that Bernanke has done irreparable damage to the dollar. If I'm right about both of those assumptions then we are on the brink of a historic inflationary period.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Perfect Financial Storm; Eight Reasons to be Bullish on the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
One of my much appreciated contacts is Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, Denmark. Today he passed on an "internal note" that he gave permission to share.
For ease in reading, I will not follow with my usual indented blockquote format.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
The War that Will Kill the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
A war-mongering U.S. government could be less than 18 months away from decimating the last 5% of value left in the dollar, says Richard Maybury, the author of the U.S. & World Early Warning Report. Until some new exchange-traded-fund-like basket of natural resources provides a store of value, this "juris naturalist" has some advice about how to protect your wealth during the coming collapse.
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Dollar/Yen Bullish Digestion Pattern / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although USD/Yen has been trading in a relatively narrow range between 78.40 and 77.80 since mid-session Monday after Sunday evening's BOJ intervention (to sell yen and buy USD), all of the action off of the intervention high impresses me as a bullish digestion period ahead of another up-leg.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 04, 2011
Why Is The USD So Weak / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tony_Pallotta
With multiple reports of USD shortages including the need for an emergency Fed swap line in September why is it not showing in the DXY? Is the DXY to the USD what the paper market is to the precious metals?
Put yourself back in September 2008. Fannie Mae was bailed out on September 8 followed by Lehman, AIG, etc through September 22. Over that period the DXY falls 5.6%. Think traders were scratching their heads wondering why the USD was so weak? Where’s the fear? Is the USD as a safe haven trade dead?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Bet Against the U.S. Dollar as a Store of Value / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Casey_Research
In this excerpt from the Casey Summit When Money Dies, seasoned resource investor/broker Rick Rule discusses risk management and explains why the greatest risk you face as an investor is located to the left of your right ear and to the right of your left ear.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Is Occupy Wall Street A Threat to the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
On its face, suggesting that the Occupy Wall Street movement may threaten the U.S. dollar may appear like a tall order. However, simply dismissing Occupy Wall Street as a fad may be a big mistake, just as it is a mistake to dismiss the Tea Party movement. Regardless of your political stance, and with no offense intended to supporters of either group, we believe they may be two sides of the same coin – quite literally. To determine where policy makers and with it, the U.S. dollar, may be heading, it is important to understand that the driving forces behind both movements have common roots.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
U.S. Dollar Index, The Big Picture / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Colin_Twiggs
When markets are volatile it often pays to take a step back and look at the big picture. A monthly chart shows the Dollar Index ranging between 70 and 90 since 2003, with the 80 level alternating as mid-range support/resistance. The index recently pulled back from resistance at 80 and will now either re-group for another attempt or medium-term support will give way, signaling a test of long-term support.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Betting on the Dollar Versus Yen / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Rumors are circulating that in an effort to enable its exporters to compete effectively with China, Japanese authorities are considering some sort of currency "peg," perhaps to a basket of currencies, or vis-a-vis the Yuan, or maybe even in part to gold.
In addition, there are currently heated discussions in Congress about declaring China a "currency manipulator," or otherwise coercing China to allow its Yuan to appreciate faster to enable American business to compete more effectively on a global basis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 04, 2011
Bernanke’s Plot To Overthrow the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bill_Bonner
Where’s the Bastille…?
The Great Correction has a lot of work to do – there are so many things that need correction. And it will take time to do it. Meanwhile, your goal as an investor is to lose less money than everyone else. He who loses least wins!
Stocks should go down. Real estate should go down. Even gold should go down…as the dollar goes up!
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 02, 2011
U.S. Dollar’s Role as International Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Asha_Bangalore
It is not a surprise the dollar continues to be the preferred official foreign exchange reserve currency but the share shows a gradual decline in the past ten years. The IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves for the first and second quarter of 2011 places the greenback’s share at 60.6% of official foreign exchange reserves, down from a high of 71.5% in 2001.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Is the US Monetary System on the Verge of Collapse? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Casey Research writes: Tune into CNBC or click onto any of the dozens of mainstream financial news sites, and you’ll find an endless array of opinions on the latest wiggle in equity, bond and commodities markets. As often as not, you'll find those opinions nestled side by side with authoritative analysis on the outlook for the economy, complete with the author’s carefully studied judgment on the best way forward.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
U.S. Dollar As the World's Reserve Currency. Poor World / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_North
The world's main reserve currency is the U.S. dollar. This is less relevant than most hard-money writers think.
What they never mention is that the U.S. dollar is a more popular reserve currency today than it was in 1995. You can see the evidence here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 15, 2011
A Chinese Euro-Save Means Falling Greenback / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
As we predicted earlier this year, China may use its newfound economic clout to save Europe and diversify away from the US dollar. Seeing as Italy is still in favor with global investors with spreads between Italian and German bonds reasonable, the Italians could strike a formidable deal with the Chinese to push off debt concerns.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 09, 2011
Is the U.S. Dollar King coming to take his Kingdom? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Capital3X
September continues to rake it in even with all the news flows and volatility attached with it, we have been reasonably successful in keeping our portfolio immune to high volatility. That said, it has not impeded our ability to generate returns.
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Threats to the U.S. Dollar, Illusion Of Stable Currency Vortex / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Jackson Hole Conference was a dud. To the astute student observer, something happened never seen before. The US central bank chief admitted failure, if only people could properly interpret and translate his words of helplessness and disappointment. A more apt description was that USFed Chairman Bernanke used the forum to announce on stage that the central bank failed and is powerless to react to the current lapse into recession. Many watchers no longer believe that a Quantitative Easing chapter #3 will be announced. Surely it will come sooner or later. Watch the USTreasury auctions for the best clue. The QE2 program was about prevention of auction failure, not economic stimulus. A quick review of monetary policy and its effect is horrifying for its utter complete failure.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Money Printing, Debt, Dollar Vs Euro / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
A key reason for recent market turmoil may be the long overdue untangling of important debt-driven interdependencies between the U.S. and Europe. In our analysis, not only has the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) ultra-low monetary policy taken away any incentive to engage in meaningful reform in the U.S., but the easy money also spilled far beyond U.S. shores, providing European banks with hundreds of billions of reasons not to shore up their capital bases. With volatility riding high, investors appear to be chasing emotions rather than facts; let’s take a step back, and in an effort to understand where the Fed, the U.S. dollar and the euro might be heading next, let’s focus on facts rather than emotion.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
U.S. Dollar, the Mother of all Mathemagical Derivatives / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Aftab_Singh
We all think we know the story of the recent ‘bubble in credit’. As the explanation goes; Americans took on too much debt, those debts were ‘packaged up’ into complex financial instruments, those instruments were then bought, sold and ‘re-packaged’ by people who didn’t even understand them, blah blah blah… Even with this cursory and boringly consensual view of recent history, at least people have figured out that they shouldn’t blindly trust the mathemagicians… or have they? Here I ask; what about the king of all derivatives; the one that deviously subsumes all others? Indeed, what about the derivative that even derivative traders assume to be axiomatically fundamental and distinctly not derived?
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Enough Already With the Macho U.S. Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
By: Ian_Fletcher
A strong dollar, like a strong defense or strong democratic institutions, sounds like a naturally good thing. But it's not. A strong dollar is an unwise goal.
I recently had an e-mail exchange with an extremely distinguished conservative commentator-a familiar name to most-who was worrying that the dollar isn't getting the "respect" it used to.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Downward Pressure Builds Again for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
The 'safe haven' status of the US dollar maybe coming to an end. Normally during times of market corrections, traders run to the American currency for protection. However, during the early August market drop, the big dollar barely moved. Though T-Bill auctions were well bid, there was little increase in demand for the greenback.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Time to Buy the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tony_Caldaro
We last reviewed the currencies in early July: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/foreign-currency-and-usd-update/. Since then, it appears, a lot has changed. The world’s equity markets have entered bear markets, US Bonds have been soaring, commodities have generally weakened, Gold has been making all time new highs, and the Swiss Franc (CHFUSD) has gone parabolic.
Monday, August 15, 2011
UnHappy 40th Birthday for Fiat U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
August 15 marks the 40th birthday of the Federal Reserve Note as a completely fiat currency.
On that date, on August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon commandeered the airwaves to announce the closing of the gold window. According to him, this was necessary to protect the US dollar from attacks from the "international money speculators'.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Death Star Washington Mulls The U.S. Dollar's End / Politics / US Dollar
By: Andrew_McKillop
What is is not in doubt is that the world's single reserve currency is nearing the end of its viability at
least in its current form. The only other two options, the euro and the yen, are in as bad or worse shape
regarding the fundamentals of the economies they are based on. The end game has arrived for the
current monetary system which began for the US in the 1930s, and for the world with Bretton Woods in
1944. The US sub prime crisis, Japan's Fukushima disaster, and Europe's PIIGS rout are the final nails
in the coffin of the dollar reserve system, which in "gold money" terms already died a long time ago - in
1971 - when Nixon pulled the plug on official and fixed dollar convertibility with gold. This system
was far from ancient and only dated from 1933, with Roosevelt (who pegged the dollar to .888 grams of
gold, or $35 per ounce). This was therefore at maximum a 38-year "gold money interlude", suspended
during the war years and only covering, in fact, about 33 years.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Can Revulsion with the Federal Reserve Note be Sustained over the Weeks and Months Ahead? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Aftab_Singh
We seem to have reached an intermediate-term extreme in revulsion for the Federal Reserve note. It seems to us that the status quo of the currency markets is highly dependent on the Federal Reserve accommodating the market’s perception of it. Here, I present the usual Federal Reserve balance sheet charts and briefly outline why we continue to anticipate a short-term rally in the dollar.
Thursday, August 04, 2011
The Dollar is the World’s Currency, but the Federal Reserve is America’s Central Bank! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Aftab_Singh
When considering the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, I cannot help but recall the words of Jim Grant (of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer):
Read full article... Read full article...The dollar is the world’s currency but the Federal Reserve is America’s central bank! Period!
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Fed Given License To Debase U.S. Dollar Further, Gold Strong Breakout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US Federal Reserve has no monetary options whatsoever. They have been backed into the corner since 2007. It was coerced to reduce interest rates as the subprime mortgage crisis morphed into an absolute bond crisis, as the Jackass loudly stated during that fateful summer. The US bank leaders claimed it was contained. It was not. The USFed was backed into the corner in 2009, unable to raise interest rates from near 0% (the Zero Interest Rate Policy disease) and put into effect its propaganda theme of an Exit Strategy. The US bank leaders knew the longest period of time for the Fed Funds rate to stick at 0% was nine months, ensuring a future disaster. They saw it. They claimed a move toward normalcy. It did not come.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
U.S. Dollar Default to Change Gold and Silver Markets / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Last Friday we were led to believe that the debt-ceiling crisis would be over by the start of Asia's business on Monday. The weekend has gone and so the deal. The markets are very nervous and beginning to worry that a deal will not be made. This is merely a political game to earn a name because one or the other gives-in first. But the two leaders represent national parties and not themselves; therefore, the sensitivity needed to back down just in time isn't there. The structure of politics doesn't allow it. Not only that, but it takes a few days to implement the ceiling change.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Making the U.S. Dollar Safer: Return ON Your Money / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Today’s debate may be focused on whether the debt ceiling will be raised, but it’s tomorrow’s debate that really concerns us. Last week, Standard & Poors made it clear that raising the debt ceiling would be one thing, but in order to withhold a downgrade to the U.S. credit rating, the U.S. must show that it is not “maxed out.” In other words, show that it would be able to manage another crisis, or a potential war. What would be the implications of a credit downgrade? And what policies would need to be engaged in, in order to avert a downgrade and strengthen the U.S. dollar over the long-term?
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Bernanke’s Nightmare / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Brady_Willett
The Great Ron Paul (no factiousness intended as Dr. Paul is truly one of a kind), has once again stymied the not-so-great Bernanke. After listening to Bernanke ramble on about people buying precious metals because of tail risks*, Mr. Paul finally interrupted and asked Bernanke point blank: ‘Do you think gold is money’? Bernanke’s answer, after an awkward pause, was as follows:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 14, 2011
The Bell Tolls For The U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
What an incredible day. I spent most of my day overlooking the beach in southern Mexico and so I was unaware of the buzz of activity that was going on worldwide. Around sundown, as I do most evenings, I then made my way to my office, Starbucks, and took my place in my usual seat, the red comfortable chair with armrests and began to scroll through the news of the day via the last free place on earth, the internet. And what a day it was!
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Panic in the Markets, Making the U.S. Dollar Safer, Return OF Your Money / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
There is panic in the markets: reviving memories of the peak of the financial crisis, investors have recently appeared less concerned about the return on their money, rather focusing on the return of their money. In what is a hallmark of grave investor concern, investors are paying for the privilege of lending money to the U.S. government: the yield on one and three month Treasury bills has been flirting again with negative yields.
Saturday, July 09, 2011
Coiling U.S. Dollar Set to Unwind / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
Over the medium-term, like many other broad based indices, the dollar continues to consolidate in a rather large sideways range. Its boundaries however, are not visually discernable in looking out over the short and near term as we’re doing here.Over the near-term, the dollar has been coiling in a contracting triangle from late May. Although it reserves the right to continue coiling for a couple of more weeks, the longer it does so, the more violent the unwind may be.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 05, 2011
Technically Speaking, U.S. Dollar Flirts With Trendline Support / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
After tagging a short-term downside whipsaw reversal target of 74.35 last Thursday, the US Dollar is just a whisker away from (TLS) trendline support on the daily bar chart.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
The Beaten Down U.S. Dollar Is A Buy! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Sy_Harding
Where are investors to turn for profits?
U.S. and global stock markets are in corrections, producing losses for investors, and they do not look like their declines have ended yet.
Friday, June 24, 2011
U.S. Monetary System Descent into Fascism / Politics / US Dollar
By: David_Galland
The following interview with Dr. Vieira was conducted in early June of 2011 for the subscribers of The Casey Report – but after careful consideration, we decided that the content is so important; it needs to be shared with a wider audience. Feel free to pass it along.
Edwin Vieira, Jr., holds four degrees from Harvard: A.B. (Harvard College), A.M. and Ph.D. (Harvard Graduate School of Arts and Sciences), and J.D. (Harvard Law School).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
If the U.S. Dollar Collapses, What Happens to Your Portfolio? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Clark
Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD writes: Have you considered what will happen to your portfolio - and all the other areas of your life - if the dollar fails? The ramifications will be widespread, painful, and inescapable if you're not properly diversified.
Last month, I attended the Global Currency Expo sponsored by EverBank. The overarching theme, as you might expect, was that diversification out of one's home currency is paramount. While there were plenty of traders on hand, it was the big-picture talks that had the most pressing messages.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Is the Euro Safer than the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Which one is safer: the euro or the U.S. dollar? Before jumping to a conclusion one way or the other, let's look at different sides of the respective coins. We have been warning for years that there may be no such thing anymore as a safe asset and investors may want to take a diversified approach to something as mundane as cash. We believe Greece has rather serious issues, but concerned investors may want to take a closer look at their dollar holdings for potential “contagion” risks. Let us explain…
Monday, June 13, 2011
How Do You Kill the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: PhilStockWorld
That's the question that was on everyone's mind last week. The smallest indication of Dollar strength caused a Global equity meltdown. As Stock World Weekly has been pointing out all year, and as evidenced by this 2-year chart of the Dow relative to UUP (Dollar index), essentially our entire 40% rally since last summer was at least augmented by QE2's 20% weakening of Dollar buying power. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 09, 2011
US Dollar Death Spiral, Economy Hurtles Toward System Failure / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The combination of $trillion bond fraud, dependence on inflating home equity for economic development, oversized cars, oil dependence, constant market intervention, insolvent banks, insolvent homes, outsourced industry, endless war, budget deadlock amidst runaway deficits, raided US gold treasury, mammoth future benefit obligations, and handing over the keys at USDept Treasury to Goldman Sachs has left the United States to fend off systemic failure. The creeping price inflation that stems from USFed hyper monetary inflation and total ignorance on basics of capitalism like business formation have left the US vulnerable to disorder and chaos. The chaos in fact grows with the passage of time and the ruin of money, against a background of a cruel middle class squeeze. With one citizen in seven on food stamps and over 22% of the population jobless, the sunset of the American Empire is well along. The banker oligarchs are gradually killing the nation, its democracy, and its wealth engines during a sustained strangulation process.
Friday, June 03, 2011
U.S. Dollar Unable to Strengthen / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Dollar’s recent rally appears over, or is it?
Until the start of May the Dollar had been under relentless selling pressure that drove it to within a whisker of 1.50 against the Euro. Then suddenly it corrected, very vigorously. The catalyst was a mix of events, but the Portuguese debt crisis was at the centre of the drama weakening the Euro.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Washington Killing U.S. Dollar's No1 World Currency Status / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
SO the YIELD offered by 10-year US Treasury bonds just fell through 3.0%, a five-decade low when reached (and then breached on the way down to 2.0%) in 2009.
More telling, the real 10-year yield – the rate of interest paid to new buyers after you account for inflation – just slipped back below zero, even on the official CPI measure of living costs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Where Were You the Day the U.S. Dollar Died? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
I've dubbed this the "pesofication" of the U.S. dollar.
But we're really talking here about the dollar's long-term demise.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Russia’s Interest Rate Hike is Negative for US Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
While the US markets were closed to observe Memorial Day, Russia’s central bank acted to raise interest rates to cool inflation. This may have ordinarily registered as a normal event for a central bank, but nothing is normal when the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, refuses to hike rates in the United States.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 20, 2011
U.S. Dollar Index Reversal Signs / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The 2011 downleg in the US Dollar Index recently violated the 2009 low but has held above the more major 2008 low, finding support on the long term chart and producing an initial reversal sign too.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
U.S. Dollar Bull Monkey Dance Will End Badly, with a QE3 party? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Banister
Interesting to watch all of the Silver and Gold Bears running out into the streets from their caves beating their chests due to the silver shellacking we just saw. Getting jiggy with the US Dollar rally is all the rage right now, and stomping on the precious metals Bulls is the hot sport. The only problem is calling for a crash after a crash is kind of like picking the winner of the NCAA tournament at your office the day after the tournament ends. It's rare to get a crash on top of a crash, and trying to predict any crash is a fool's game anyways.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Obama Kills Osama After the Bernank Spoke, US Dollar Bubble Bursts Trending Towards USD69 / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterMay 3rd, 2011 Issue #9 Vol. 5
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 13, 2011
What Drives the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Dollar staged a lightening recovery towards the end of last week, especially against the Euro, driven by three main events:
- Anxieties about the Euro zone Sovereign debt crisis intensified as speculation continued to grow that Greece might yet be forced to restructure her debts,
- The ECB held interest rates unchanged, with Trichet failing to provide guidance about the timing of any future rate increase, and
- Anxieties emerged about the health and durability of the Global recovery.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
U.S. Dollar Transision From Bear to Bull Complete / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
Despite my bias to see new all time lows in the dollar index, I think the dollar probably put in the three year cycle low last week. Sentiment at the time had reached multi-year lows and as of yesterday the dollar had moved back above the 50 day moving average.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Countertrend Moves In U.S. Dollar, Gold and Silver / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeb_Handwerger
The US dollar has been reacting very bullish to the death of Osama bin Laden, the figurehead of Al Qaeda. Short-term investors have shown a renewed interest in the US dollar (UUP) as near-term resistance and the 50-day moving average have broken to the upside. Word has spread that this has been a critical blow to the Al Qaeda network, but countries are preparing for retaliatory attacks. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Gold and the Dead Cat U.S. Dollar Bounce / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bob_Kirtley
This is a classic dead cat bounce by the US Dollar as it appears to fight desperately to avoid dropping below the much watched ‘72′ level. We say fight, but the real situation is not a fight at all, its a managed decline by the United States to lower the value of their currency and ultimately inflate away the mountain of debt that it realizes is impossible to ever re-pay.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Why the U.S. Dollar is Ready to Rebound, Anatomy of an Inflection Point / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Jack Barnes writes:
For most of the past year, anything involving the U.S. dollar has been what traders like to refer to as a "one-way trade."
And with good reason: Over the past year, the U.S. currency has traded in only one direction - down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 06, 2011
U.S. Dollar Bear Market Rallies, Stocks and Commodities / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
The beleaguered US dollar has certainly challenged silver’s crown of being the most-one-sided trade lately. The bearishness and pessimism plaguing the world’s reserve currency is overwhelming and universal, with nearly everyone convinced the US dollar is ready to fall off a cliff. But it is psychological conditions just like today’s that birth mighty bear-market rallies, with widespread implications for traders.
Friday, May 06, 2011
U.S. Dollar Rallys Sharply After ECB Backs Off From Interest Rate Rise / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has backed off his usual way of signaling a rate hike, which is to use the phrase "strong vigilance". Instead, Trichet said today "the ECB will monitor inflation risks very closely".
Thursday, May 05, 2011
U.S. Faces Dollar Decline as China Grows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
According to a new statement from the International Monetary Fund, the United States will be the world’s leading economy for four more years, at which point China will overtake the US in total annual production of goods and services. While economists can and have expressed their doubts about how this plays into the world economy going forward, most everyone can agree that this news is not a positive release for the United States, nor the US dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
U.S. Dollar, It’s Payback Time! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
It’s payback time for Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed). In some ways, this should neither surprise, nor scare anyone. Unfortunately, however, it might do both.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Plummeting US Dollar: The Age of America is Over / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
Today the Swiss franc made yet another new high against the super dollar, as it has been doing for 120 days. What you are reading in the graphs is less and less of the foreign currency that one dollar can buy. Of course, gold and silver also consistently hit new highs.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Bernanke Dollar Bottom or Crash! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
Today's FOMC meeting and press conference has the potential to either put in a daily cycle bottom in the dollar index or initiate a waterfall decline into the dollar's three year cycle low. There is a lot riding on this meeting.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Threats to US Dollar Reserve Currency Status: No Country Really Wants It! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
In spite of all the hype regarding the Yuan as a reserve currency I have stated many times recently that discussion of the Yuan as a reserve currency is nothing but ridiculous hype.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
The Falling U.S. Dollar ... Is it a Good or Bad Event? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Marty_Chenard
A dropping Dollar is considered an advantage for U.S. firms that trade internationally.
But, could a falling Dollar turn into a U.S. confidence crisis?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
CADUSD, Canadian Dollar Elliott Wave Analysis Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tony_Caldaro
In December, we posted a write up on the CADUSD.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
The Federal Reserve Note is Dead, Long Live the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
In 1520, Count Hieronymus Schlick of Bohemia began minting silver coins known as Joachimsthalers, named for Joachimstal (today called Jáchymov in the Czech Republic), where the silver was mined. In German, thal or tal refers to a valley or dale. Therefore, translated, the coins meant "Jachymov Valley". His "Joachimsthaler" was later shortened in common usage to taler or thaler and this shortened word eventually found its way into English as dollar.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Investors, Put the U.S. Dollar on Your Radar Screen Now / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Marty_Chenard
FYI for this week: "Put the U.S. Dollar on your radar screen".
Zhang Jianhua, the head of research at the People's Bank of China is getting very nervous now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 25, 2011
Euro USD Currency Elliott Wave Technical Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tony_Caldaro
We have written about the Euro in sections of various reports before, but this is the first report dedicated just to the EURUSD. The Euro, the currency of the European Union, replaced the ECU, a basket of european currencies, in 1999 on a 1:1 basis. For the record the Euro officially started trading in 1999. However, we do have charts for the ECU going back to 1991. In the 1990′s the basket of ECU currencies contained twelve different currencies.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
US Dollar DX Index Very Long Term Charts / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jesse
The DX Index I normally show is the continuous futures contract on the DX index. The front month is now June.
The Fed also publishes two other dollar indices: major currency index, and the broad currency index. The major currency index is essentially the basis for the Wall Street DX futures index.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 21, 2011
The U.S. Dollar Cycle / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
For many months now I've been warning we were going to have a dollar crisis and that dollar crisis would drive the final leg up in gold's ongoing two year C-wave advance. We are now on the verge of the panic selling stage of this three year cycle.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Can U.S. Dollar Weakness Mean Stock Market Weakness? / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Jason_Kaspar
Are there any dollar bulls left? Inflationists across the web are crying ‘victory’ as the dollar sinks and certain asset prices (especially oil prices, food prices, and the gold price) mushroom higher. To the level headed, you should exercise extreme caution against assumed fixed correlations like “weak dollar” means “asset price increases.” Correlations can quickly change.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 14, 2011
U.S. Dollar Review and Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
We believe that continued U.S. dollar weakness may be a consequence of the diverging monetary approaches central banks are taking around the globe. While many international central banks have been on a tightening path, raising rates (i.e. central banks of: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Norway, Sweden, to name but a few), the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has been conspicuous in its continued easing monetary policy stance. Indeed, while other central banks have been shrinking the size of their balance sheets, the U.S. Fed’s balance sheet continues to expand on the back of ongoing quantitative easing policies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
U.S. Dollar Index Down Trend Intact / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
In my last look at the Dollar Index, I pointed out that the Dollar doesn't seem relevant anymore, and as long as the down trend was under control, then all seem to be ok. The trend is still down, and the technicals would suggest that we will be visiting the all time lows last seen in 2008 at some point in the near future. At that point, I surmise things will start to get interesting.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Economics 101: Long Material, Short Certified Idiots / Economics / US Dollar
By: Fred_Sheehan
Some relationships:
The last time the U.S. dollar exceeded 120 on the dollar index (ticker symbol DXY: a measurement of the dollar against other currencies) was in January 2002. The close on April 8, 2011, was 75.08, a 37 % decline.
Since January, 2002, gold has risen from $282 to $1,475 an ounce, also quoted at the April 8, 2011, close
Friday, April 08, 2011
U.S. Dollar Crisis Looms, Spike in Interest Rates Following End of QE2 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Kitze
Chris Martenson writes: As a major currency crisis looms in the west, there are some things that we should all expect. Lifestyle changes that we don't have to imagine, but ones we can see happening right in front of us today. Now the catalyst for the beginning of a major currency crisis could be several things. To note just a few, QE2 ending would cause a spike in interest rates, banking crisis, and inevitably a debt crisis that would lead to a dollar crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 05, 2011
The Falling US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tony_Pallotta
Below is a monthly chart of the USD index (DXY) since 2000. In that period of time it has died a slow death down 37%. A currency is like a stock in a company and this is one company shareholders continue to sell. Whether it be the shrinking manufacturing base, millions in lost jobs, rising debt, weak leadership, lack of new products in the pipeline to fuel growth, this company (excuse me country) is in trouble right now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
U.S. Dollar Has Cancer and its Metastasising / Currencies / US Dollar
By: GoldSilver
All you can do is play the hand you are dealt.
This is not going to be pretty. When it happens, it is not going to be good for most people. It's only going to be good for a few. Those who hold physical gold and silver.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
The Death of the "Dollar Carry Trade" / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
By maintaining a Federal Funds rate below the 0.25% level - and injecting $600 billion into the banking system through a second round of quantitative easing - the U.S. Federal Reserve has orchestrated a bubble-like surge in commodity prices, an uptick in global inflation and a historic resurgence in U.S. stock prices.
The low-interest-rate strategy has enabled the U.S. central bank to achieve another important objective - a massive depreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 28, 2011
US Dollar, Making a Case for the Greenback / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
R.F. Lee writes: The US Dollar has been on a pronounced downtrend since the middle of 2010, and has been threatening its record lows as of this writing at the end of March 2011. In the week of 21 March 2011, the greenback registered new lows against Gold and the Australian Dollar, and also reached a 31-year low against silver.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
US Dollar Under Acute Pressure As World seeks an Alternative Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bob_Chapman
The days and years of manipulation, fraud and criminal behavior are fast coming to an end. New alliances are evolving, as are outspoken advocates of a new world reserve currency. As a result more and more foreigners are bypassing Treasury and Agency bonds, as well as other US dollar denominated investments. We watch as other major nations accumulate gold and cannot help but think that the new world reserve currency will be gold backed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
U.S. Dollar Collapse Inevitable, Gold Wealth Protection / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Clark
What will happen to the U.S. economy and the dollar in the near term? Will inflation increase dramatically? What is the outlook for gold, and where should you put your money? BIG GOLD asked a world-class panel of economists, authors, and investment advisors what they expect for the future. Caution: strong opinions ahead...
Monday, March 21, 2011
U.S. Dollar Breakdown or Reversal? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Hampson
The US Dollar has now broken beneath long term rising support, as shown in the first chart below of the US Dollar index. There are other support levels below, around 75 and then 72, but beneath that we would enter unchartered territory, as shown in the second longer term chart, and the weakness of the latest dollar bounce is notable.
Monday, March 21, 2011
U.S. Dollar End Game / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
For months and months I've been warning investors that the dollar was going to come under extreme pressure sometime this year. I expected it to probably happen in the spring. Many people thought I was nuts. They were sure it was the Euro that would collapse, despite the fact that the EU is doing everything they can to protect their currency while Bernanke is doing everything he can to destroy ours.
Monday, March 21, 2011
How the Fed Is Wrecking the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_T_Salerno
Testimony before the US House of Representatives, Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Monetary Policy, March 17, 2011
The old argument has recently come back into vogue that moderate inflation is desirable to prevent the far greater evil of deflation. What used to be roundly condemned as "creeping inflation" in the 1950s by Fed officials and mainstream economists alike is today given the scientific-sounding name "inflation-targeting" and hailed as the proper goal of monetary policy.1 In the past decade, this view has been promoted by many mainstream economists, most notably former Fed Chairman Greenspan and current Fed chairman Bernanke. But this view is based on a fundamental confusion. It conflates deflation and depression, which are two very different phenomena. Falling prices are, under most circumstances, absolutely benign and the natural outcome of a prosperous and growing economy. The fear of falling prices is thus a phobia – I call it a "deflation-phobia" – which has no rational basis in economic theory or history.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Fed Policies of U.S. Dollar Destructionism / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: LewRockwell
James Grant writes: This testimony was delivered before the Ron Paul monetary subcommittee on March 16, 2011.
"What Should the Federal Reserve Do Next?" was the headline over the roundup of expert monetary opinion on the op-ed page of the Sept. 9 Wall Street Journal. The experts couldn't seem to agree. Buy Treasurys by the boatload, one counseled. Do nothing of the sort, urged another. Hew fast to the Taylor Rule, John B. Taylor, himself the author of the very rule, modestly proposed (i.e., fix the federal funds rate at one-and-a-half times the inflation rate plus one-half times the shortfall of GDP from potential, plus one). The half-dozen authorities shared not much common ground except to ignore the principles on which the dollar was defined in 1792 and those on which the Federal Reserve was enacted in 1913. The burden of this essay is that they thereby missed the point.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Time to Bet on a RISING U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: You hear it over and over...
"Because of all the debts and the deficits, the dollar is about to crash."
Thursday, March 10, 2011
The U.S. Dollar’s Double Decline / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Even silver and gold bears realize that the dollar is in decline, but few realize the extent of such a decline and how massive shifts in capital flows in 2008 will affect the dollar in 2011.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
U.S. Dollar Long-term Chart / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jesse
The weakness with this US Dollar DX index is that it is highly weighted to the developed economies of Europe and Japan. As such it may not reflect erosion of dollar purchasing power vis a vis the BRICs, and external measures such as gold, oil, and silver. It may be masked by the mutual weakness of central banks all inflating their currencies in unison.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Crude Oil and Gold Prices Surge as Speculators Bet Billions Shorting the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes: Oil reached a 29-month high (yesterday) Monday morning in London and gold hit an intraday record as investors sought to hedge against inflation and traders bet billions shorting the dollar.
Brent crude futures contracts in London gained 0.1% yesterday to close at $116.11 a barrel, pushed higher by the Middle East crisis disrupting the oil supply. Crude for April delivery was up 0.9% to $105.36 in Monday afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 07, 2011
U.S. Dollar Index at High Risk of Unraveling / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
I am sure that you are aware that the Dollar Index can't get a bid. This isn't news but a fact. The Dollar Index is in a down trend, and the question to ponder is: how low can it go? Looking at the price patterns, I believe the Dollar is at significant risk of unraveling.
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
Taps for the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
It now appears that the United States has finally succeeded in its efforts to destroy confidence in the U.S. dollar. Given the currency's reserve status, its ubiquity in financial markets, and the economic power and political position of the United States, this was no easy task. However, to get the job done Washington chose the right man: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Thanks to Bernanke's herculean efforts, investors across the globe have now been fully weaned from their infantile belief that the U.S. dollar will remain the ultimate safe haven currency.
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Disasters Rocking U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
From earthquakes in New Zealand to revolutions in the Middle East, natural and man-made disasters are rocking the world. We are all too often made to believe that in times of crisis there’s a flight to the U.S. dollar. However, the U.S. dollar has instead had a rocky ride of its own thus allowing the crisis-ridden Eurozone to shine. What’s going on? Is there no crisis, or has the U.S. dollar lost its appeal as a safe haven?
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Did You Notice This Change in the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Did you notice the U.S. dollar changed in the last few weeks?
I don't mean that it changed colors, has new security features, or has different words.
Tuesday, March 01, 2011
Is the U.S. Dollar on the Brink? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Just take a look at the chart of the U.S. dollar Index and you see a frightening sight. If it sinks any further its support will have evaporated. We have watched all this week the gold price rise and look good in the dollar. But in the euro it has barely moved. Against the Swiss Franc the dollar looks so weak. With the Technical picture looking so poor, one turns to the fundamentals to see if they conflict or support a downturn for the dollar.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
U.S. Dollar on the Edge of the Abyss / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
The dollar is now poised on the edge of the abyss.
The current intermediate cycle has rolled over and is making lower lows and lower highs. The current daily cycle has formed a swing high and is in jeopardy of rolling over into a left translated cycle. If the dollar breaks below the November intermediate bottom of 75.63 it will be an incredibly bearish sign as not only will the current intermediate cycle have topped in only 4 weeks but the larger yearly cycle will also have topped in only 4 weeks.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Fed's Gold Bullish Script, Destroying the Dollar and Demolishing the United States / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
What If We Had a Bubble and Nobody Came?
You could not have written a better script for gold. It is almost as if the US Government and the Federal Reserve are trying to destroy the dollar and demolish the country – and taking most of the western world with it.
At the beginning of this gold bull market, in 2000, no one had ever heard of Barack Obama or Ben Bernanke. But, 11 years later, and an outright socialist profligate spender is President of the US and a College professor who believes in crackpot Keynesian theories about how money printing can save economies is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
U.S. Dollar Gains on Global Political Uncertainty / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
It is a amazing that despite some improving signs on the domestic economy, it is developments in Egypt that have helped prop up the dollar in early Friday (February 11) currency trade.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has once again refused demands that he step down in lieu of a political uprising in the country. The uncertainty surrounding developments in Egypt have weighed on global equities, but the greenback has made a slight comeback.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 03, 2011
The U.S. Dollar Index, How Low Can You Go? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
When looking at the Dollar Index, I am reminded of the song the "Cha Cha Slide"when the performer says, "How low can you go?" There is no question investors believe that the Dollar is going down and that equities are only going up all courtesy of Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and his QE 2 policy. Yesterday's rally in equities and concurrent drop in the Dollar served to remind me of the fact that currency devaluation and increasing liquidity remain the drivers for equities. It has been that way since 2007, and why should it stop now? For the record, the Dollar Index was down a hefty 0.86% yesterday while stocks enjoyed a strong trend day.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Could Bernanke Spark a Run on the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
Treasury yields are "blinking red", but the Fed keeps acting like nothing's wrong. What's the deal?
Let's explain: Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's bond purchasing program (QE2) has sent the yield on the 30-year Treasury skyrocketing. At the same time, the the 2-year Treasury is stuck at a lowly 0.61. That means, the "yield curve" between the two bonds has grown steeper, which normally happens at the beginning of a recovery because investors are moving out of "risk free" bonds to riskier assets like stocks. Typically, the yield on the long-term bond will start to go down on its own because investors expect the Fed to raise short-term rates to curb potential inflation. But that's not happening this time. Why? And why should we care?
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Plans to Save the Doomed U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mac_Slavo
Reuters’ Emily Flitter asks in a recent column What is Plan B if China dumps its U.S. debt?
Read full article... Read full article...It is worth asking about U.S. officials’ Plan B just in case one day relations take a surprise turn for the worse and Beijing dumps its holdings of U.S. treasuries.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
A Temporary Lifeline for the U.S. Dollar 2011 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Q1_Publishing
2011 is set to be the year of the dollar’s rebound.At first glance, the dollar shouldn’t be on the rise. Official unemployment is stuck at near 10%. Dozens of municipal governments are set to fall into bankruptcy this year. The federal budget deficit is over $1 trillion. The Fed has signaled its intention to monetize more debt.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 17, 2011
Why Hold Dollars if the Fed is Going to Intentionally Deflate Their Value? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
As everyone seems to know, and as you have read endlessly in innumerable reports, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet by more than two trillion dollars. At present is in the process of adding another six hundred billion dollars of assets by monetizing U.S. government debt. At the same time, Obama Regime's deficit has spiraled out of control. Correctly measured, that deficit for the past year was $1.7 trillion.
Thursday, January 06, 2011
Destruction of the U.S. Dollar, The Real Reason Paul Volcker Wants Out / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
The news that Paul Volcker plans to step down from a "panel of experts" advising Barack Obama today will likely whip market participants into a bit of a frenzy analyzing what this could possibly mean.
But, the problem with their conclusions will be that they are starting from an incorrect premise. The great majority of market participants believe that Paul Volcker was responsible for ending the inflation of the 1970s. And, as usual, the great majority of market participants are wrong.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 17, 2010
The U.S. Dollar Threads a Needle / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
Pre-holiday cheer is certainly evident in the financial markets. The overwhelming consensus is that the Congressional agreement to not raise taxes while extending hundreds of billions in new stimulus will finally allow the recovery to take hold. The good feelings are underscored by less-than-awful employment reports and modest slowdowns in foreclosures. Another point of optimism is the continued buoyancy of the US dollar, which has weakened over the past few months, but has not collapsed.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Is The U.S. Dollar Too Big to Fail? Gold and Silver Lifeline / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Lorimer_Wilson
Those in the U.S. power structure know what the plan is should the U.S. dollar fail. They are not admitting publically that there is even the remotest chance that it could happen but, rest assured, there is a plan. There is always a plan. To paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt, nothing happens by chance in government, so don’t be caught up in such a ‘surprise’ event - whatever it may be and whenever it occurs.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Post Mortem for the world's "Reserve Currency" / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
Paul Volcker is worried about the future of the dollar and for good reason. The Fed has initiated a program (Quantitative Easing) that presages an end to Bretton Woods 2 and replaces it with different system altogether. Naturally, that's made trading partners pretty nervous. Despite the unfairness of the present system--where export-dependent countries recycle capital to US markets to sustain demand---most nations would rather stick with the "devil they know", then venture into the unknown. But US allies weren't consulted on the matter. The Fed unilaterally decided that the only way to fight deflation and high unemployment in the US, was by weakening the dollar and making US exports more competitive. Hence--QE2.
Monday, December 13, 2010
U.S. Dollar Forecast 2011, Ways to Profit Despite the Greenback's Expected Struggles / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
By Larry D. Spears writes:
The U.S. dollar faces a long list of challenges in the New Year.
The U.S. greenback could strengthen in 2011-but only against the European euro and other currencies with heavy exposure to the European debt crisis, including the British pound sterling. Against virtually every other currency, however, the U.S. dollar is likely to be the loser.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 12, 2010
The Debt-Dollar Discipline: Part II - Conservation & Release / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
Part I in this series introduced Michel Foucault's theory of disciplinary society, laid out in his book Discipline and Punish, and the application of this analysis to the "debt-dollar discipline" formally imposed on global society by the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1945 (establishing the dollar as the global reserve currency). It should come as no surprise that this global financial discipline is currently in the process of being revoked.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Will Aussie Dollar Overtake U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bari_Baig
Green back was not strong nor weak it was neutral at best with mild bias towards the red territory a perfect example of undergoing consolidation. However, the U.S Dollar really was materially weak against the Aussie Dollar as the data out from Canberra of employment beat not just the streets estimates but also beat previous induction of “full time” workers. The employment rose by 54,600 for the month of November for full time workers. Australia has the highest interest rates of all the developed nations and keeping in view such high employability the already tight monetary policy would certainly have to be tightened even further.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 04, 2010
Collapse of the Debt Dollar Discipline: Financial Discipline & Punish / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
*The following is Part I in a two part series of articles on the relatively rapid emergence and collapse of the "debt-dollar discipline" imposed on our global society. It is being done in two installments mainly due to my current time constraints, but also for the sake of shorter length and targeted focus. This part will introduce Michel Foucault's (renowned french philosopher, 1926-1984) analysis of "discipline" and "punish" in the modern state, and apply it to the global debt-dollar reserve system. The next part will focus entirely on the ongoing collapse of this disciplinary system, as it such an important and far-reaching topic.
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
China and Russia Trade Agreement: More than Meets the Eye / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Direct trade between China and Russia may be less than $50 billion annually, but it's not the numbers that matter. Under the new agreement, China and Russia have decided that they will use their own local currencies to settle bilateral trade. Previously, both countries used the United States dollar as an intermediary for settling delivery payments.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
U.S. Dollar USD Index Deja-Vu from 52 Weeks Ago? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
US dollar stabilizes up as US bond yields push higher following the 93K increase in Nov ADP (highest since Nov 2007) and the October revision to +82K from +43K. US 10 year yields jump to 2.91% from 2.79% earlier, further boosting the "good-data-is positive-for-USD" reaction, which was not always apparent. Although the euro is holding firm, general FX dynamics are increasingly similar to exactly a year ago when USD strengthened in early December 2009 on a combination of strong US Nov jobs report (released on December 4, 2009 at -11k vs expectations of -130K) and the triple downgrades of Greece later in the month (Fitch, S&P and Moodys). Are we witnessing a Déjà vu from exactly 52 weeks ago? Such would be the case in the event of double positive surprise (strong NFP, falling unemployment rate) and possibly upside revisions.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
U.S. Dollar's Rally From the End of Inverted Parabolic Formation is Bearish for Gold and Silver / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Really need to start drinking more coffee, perhaps. Must have fallen asleep and missed the demise of the U.S. dollar. For when we looked this morning, it was still there trading away. Something must have happened while we were nodding off.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Why I Still Like the U.S. Dollar in a Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyWealth
Jeff Clark writes: "Where the heck is our emergency cash?" I asked, looking squarely at my wife...
The mountain of $20 bills I stashed away last year was now nothing more than a mole-hill.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Four Ways to Monitor the U.S. Dollar and Risk Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Ciovacco
With European debt markets getting little relief thus far from the Ireland bailout, we need to keep a continued eye on the U.S. dollar. A weaker U.S. dollar tends to provide tailwinds for stocks, commodities, gold, and silver. Therefore, a longer-than-expected rally in the greenback may provide headwinds for these assets, with gold being the possible exception in the near-term.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Currency Manipulation, Two Sides to Every Coin / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Recently, currency manipulation has garnered headline attention. We have been constantly bombarded with rhetoric out of Washington: “China isn’t allowing its currency to appreciate fast enough”; “China’s exchange rate policies are stealing jobs from America”; “We’re playing fair, why can’t China?” More often than not, the more vociferous proponents come from politicians who, in our opinion, are simply posturing for votes; attempting to provide catchy sound bites they believe will resonate with their constituents, without fully grasping the underlying fundamentals at play. The situation itself is truly paradoxical – akin to a major corporation thanking its largest creditor by insulting them.
Monday, November 29, 2010
U.S. Dollar Rally, Gold and the Art of Speculation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Howard_Katz
The rally in the dollar over the past few weeks serves as a good illustration of what it takes to be a good speculator. I can remember when I was new to the art of speculation. It was the early 1970s, and Richard Nixon, unilaterally and illegally, abolished the U.S. gold standard (or at least the slender, connection to gold which still existed at that time and was known as the Bretton Woods System).
Friday, November 26, 2010
While North And South Korea Exchange Artillery, China and Russia Fire A Warning Shot Against The Bernanke Bow / Politics / US Dollar
By: Jeb_Handwerger
When time permits I like to relax with a good mystery story. One of my favorite masters of the genre is Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, creator of Shirlock Holmes. A few days ago a story appeared on the front page of China Daily on 11-23-10, that is worthy in emulating the masters great classic: “The Dog That Did Not Bark.”
Thursday, November 18, 2010
The U.S. Dollar Survives Again / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
Given all that stress that the Federal Reserve's currency debasement program is laying on the global economy, last week's G-20 summit in South Korea should have been the monetary equivalent of a military degradation for the U.S. dollar. The greenback should have been slapped across the face, stripped of its medals, and cashiered from the ranks of respected currencies. Instead the dollar escaped unscathed, retaining its privileged status as the world's reserve.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 18, 2010
U.S. Dollar, USD Index Rally? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Why the USD is rallying
Well why can the USD rally now with another $600 billion of US QE? Basically it is argued by some, including me, that since the US has the defacto world reserve currency, that even if the US wants to abuse it and print a lot of money, since they print it, and issue the USD, they can win any argument on currency rates.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
U.S. Dollar Trend Puts Gold Under Pressure / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeb_Handwerger
Last week I warned that the U.S. Dollar was reaching three year lows and to expect a dollar bounce. The dollar has bounced higher as risk aversion has returned with Ireland on the verge of needing a bailout and China raising interest rates to combat rising inflation. There are growing concerns of the Fed needing to raise interest rates ahead of schedule. The previous euphoria in commodities appears to be waning and the technicals are demonstrating the fundamental challenges facing commodities.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Looking Back at the Credit Crunch, Fall of the Mighty Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rosanne_Lim
When politicians and policy makers see an economic problem, especially one with the scale of the financial crisis today, they feel obliged to solve it. Unfortunately, the measures they’ve implemented have not worked so far. In fact, their policies have the opposite effect because it reinforces imbalances. The monetary stimulus is just whetted the appetites of consumers to purchase even more imports. Meanwhile, the second round of quantitative easing might only make it worse.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
U.S. Election Rejection of Obama is Bullish for U.S. Dollar, Gold Rally Defferred / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Rejection may be hard for most politicians to accept, but might be good for the nation and the world. Obama Regime's mismanagement of U.S. economy was rejected on 2nd of November in the U.S. election. That rejection ushered in the greatest change in political power in U.S. since 1948. Thus far, Obama Regime's only positive legacy will be the greatest political rejection in 62 years. That development means Obama Regime's reign of terror on wealth and economic growth has ended. That is bullish news for the U.S. dollar.
Friday, November 12, 2010
U.S. Dollar Devaluation, A Bad Plan Poorly Disguised / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
With our economy sagging and our international clout waning, one of the few assets upon which the United States can rely is the confidence that the rest of the world has traditionally showered upon us. That confidence is the reason why the US dollar was elevated to global reserve status more than 65 years ago.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
The U.S. Dollar, What should Investors do? What should Governments do? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) strategy of firing up its printing press may have the debasement of the U.S. dollar as its goal (see Fed Targets Weaker Dollar), but it’s important to note that the Fed does not act in a vacuum. In our humble opinion, Fed Chair Bernanke is wrong both on substance and politics – a potentially explosive mix.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Will the G20 Dump the U.S. Dollar as the World's Main Reserve Currency? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
The Group of 20 (G-20) is meeting today (Thursday) and tomorrow (Friday) in Seoul, South Korea, and one of the main topics of discussion will be the role of the U.S. dollar in the post-crisis global economy.
Debate over the dollar's role as the world's main reserve currency rose to a fevered pitch in 2008 when the financial crisis, which began in the United States, first roiled global markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
U.S. Dollar Bounces Off Important Support on Post QE2 Reality / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeb_Handwerger
This week we are reaching price levels in the dollar that have only been touched 3 major times in the last 3 years. After touching this level the dollar has bounced higher in reaction to major deflationary forces.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
U.S. Dollar Stronger as Speculators Consider Global Economy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
Currency speculators are struggling to make sense of everything happening around them in the global economy. At the moment (November 10), the dollar is in a stronger position following the Central Bank sell off of some 10-year debt at a lower than expected yield.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Fed Pushing U.S. Dollar Closer to Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LewRockwell
Jeff Fisher writes: Every day the US Dollar moves closer to collapse.
International investors, unlike most Americans, are aware of the risk, and are nervously watching Gold and Silver march higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 08, 2010
U.S. Dollar Rally Possible, Reduce Exposure to Gold, Silver and Copper / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Ciovacco
While the long-term fundamentals related to the U.S. dollar remain bearish, Friday’s significant rally in the greenback leaves the door open for a possible countertrend rally. The conditions highlighted below may be cleared in a matter of days, but as of the close on November 5th the dollar remains susceptible to a surprise countertrend rally.
Sunday, November 07, 2010
Bernanke Delivers QE2 Last Rites for Dollar as Worlds Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
Millions of Americans have no idea what Quantitative Easing is or how it will effect them personally. That's why Wednesday's announcement that the Fed will purchase another $600 billion in US Treasuries merely reinforced feelings of helplessness and a sense that government spending is out-of-control. Unfortunately, Ben Bernanke's rambling explanation of QE2 in a Washington Post op-ed on Thursday only added to the confusion. The article is loaded with half-truths and omissions that are meant to mislead the public about how the program works and what the Fed's real objectives are. It's another missed opportunity by Bernanke to come clean with the people and let them know what policies are being enacted in their name. Here's an excerpt from the article:
Saturday, November 06, 2010
Seven Bullish U.S. Dollar Charts You Should See / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bryan_Rich
The currency market, as well as all markets, have been heavily focused on the U.S. and the Fed’s plans for more quantitative easing (QE).
And that’s had a huge impact on the dollar and on dollar sentiment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 05, 2010
Fed Quantitative Easing 2, One of the Greatest Blunders in History / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
Many years from now when we look back at history I think yesterday will be seen as one of the greatest blunders ever made by a central banker.
The dollar was already headed down into a major 3 year cycle low.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Keep Your Head Above the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
There has been so much discussion recently about "QE 2" that you would think the entire financial sector were about to embark on a transatlantic cruise. Unfortunately, they, and we, are not so lucky. In the year 2010, "QE 2" doesn't refer to a sumptuous ocean liner, but a second, more extravagant round of "quantitative easing" - stimulus. In the past, this technique was simply called "printing money." As if the nation has not already suffered enough from the first round, Captain Ben Bernanke and the Fed are determined to compound the damage by hitting us with another monetary juggernaut. Their stated goal is to boost the economy and create jobs. However, since economic growth cannot be achieved by printing money, their QE 2 will sink just as surely as the Titanic.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
U.S. Dollar Index Impact on Precious Metals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ronald_Rosen
Since there is so much concern and conviction that the U.S. Dollar is about to collapse and the precious metals complex is about to rise sharply, let’s take a close look at where the Dollar Index has been, what if anything in the precious metals complex it has influenced, and where it may be going.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
U.S. Dollar USD Index Trend Forecast Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The present action of the USD is congruent with the various forms of quantitative easing at the moment. All forms of paper currency are becoming weakened as all larger governments expand their fiat. If China and the US goverments add alot of paper, it can be converted into other currencies or assets. IF the funds are converted to say Canadian dollars, the Canadian currency was just indirectly debased. This is due to global conversion from one currency to another. Any country that produces anything in the coming years is going to see strength in their local currency, which in turn will increase with demand.
Friday, October 22, 2010
U.S. Dollar Current Account Woes / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
Amid the recent rout of the USDollar, fears of an all-out trade war have been stoked globally. The G20 finance heads are currently struggling to find common ground on current account imbalances that will avert the inevitable. The point should not be lost on anyone that none of these leaders are really concerned about why these imbalances exist, but rather are only focusing on avoiding the negative consequences of poor fiscal behavior stacked up over the past several decades.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Will the U.S. Treasury Defend the Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
“Everything depends on proper listening. Of ten people who listen to the same speech or story, each person may well understand it differently. Perhaps, only one of them will understand it correctly.” How should traders interpret the latest remarks by US Treasury chief Timothy Geithner, who shocked the currency markets on October 18th, citing his determination to defend the value of the US-dollar?
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Geithner, China Currency War and Foreclosure-gate / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dian_L_Chu
Global markets freaked out on Tuesday primarily due to the following events:
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner’s speech on Monday pledging “The United States and no country around the world can devalue its way to prosperity."
- Within hours after Geithner’s statement, China made a surprise interest rate hike—its first since 2007--raised fears that Chinese growth will slow with global implications.
- The unraveling of the “foreclosure-gate” could mean banking crisis 2.0
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
U.S. Policies Intensifying Currency War and Trade Conflicts / Politics / US Dollar
By: Barry_Grey
In the wake of the fractious International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting held October 9-10 in Washington, the descent into global currency and trade war has accelerated, with the United States playing the role of instigator-in-chief.
The US is deliberately encouraging a sell-off of dollars on international currency markets in order to raise the relative exchange rates of its major trade rivals, increasing the effective price of their exports to the US while cheapening US exports to their markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
A Rising U.S. Dollar Amidst a Currency War? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Marty_Chenard
Wall Street has been pointing out how a falling Dollar is good for stocks ... especially for international companies. What happens if the Dollar rises now?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 18, 2010
U.S. Dollar Devaluation, The Greatest Bet of All Time / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Larry_Edelson
No doubt you watched the U.S. dollar plunge almost out of control last week.
And no doubt you heard about the massive currency wars that are bearing down on the world, as each major country tries to put itself on sale, to boost exports, to inflate debts, and to compete in a world where both consumers and investors are running for cover.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 18, 2010
USD Index Trend Forecast Into Mid 2011, U.S. Dollar Collapse (Again)? / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterOct 12th, 2010 Issue #56 Vol. 4
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Look at the U.S. Dollar USD Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Steven_Vincent
At this time sentiment on the US Dollar Index is about as bearish as ever and at least equivalent to that at the bottom in December 2009. Expectations for a meltdown to all time lows in the context of rampant devaluation via Quantitative Easing by the Fed are nearly universal. While these expectations may, of course, be met in the market, it's worth asking what the implications may be if the setup renders a contrarian result.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
U.S. Dollar USD Index ZERO Bound / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
Who is fooling whom?"
It is with sheer disbelief, and utter amazement that the real world accepts such an empty unit of exchange to start with. To fathom a plausible reason for such collective behavior, one need not go any further than studying the classic conditioning experiment of Pavlov and his dogs.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Federal Reserve Policy Pushes the U.S. Dollar Ever Closer to Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Peter D. Schiff writes: Much of the content of the latest U.S. Federal Reserve statement, released on Sept. 21, echoes the central bank's previous post-credit-crunch pronouncements: There is still too much slack in the economy, interest rates are still going to be near-zero for an "extended period," and the Fed will continue to use payments from its Treasury purchases to buy yet more Treasuries.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
U.S. Dollar Cannot Even Hold 5 Day Moving Average / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Trader_Mark
Dollar bulls are now showing in the 3% range which is a similar reading to Euro bulls in late spring during the Greece crisis ... the euro was roughly 1.18 to the dollar, and people were talking par (1.00). Now the euro just broke over 1.40.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 14, 2010
How to Diversify Out Of U.S. Dollars With ETFs / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ron_Rowland
Do you pay attention to the currency markets? You’d better, if you want to survive and thrive in these crazy times.
I have to tell you I am NOT a currency expert. For deeper analysis I refer you to my Money and Markets colleague Bryan Rich. I do, however, know a trend when I see one — and right now the trend in the U.S. dollar is down against every major currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Fed Slashing the U.S. Dollar, The Economic Future is Ugly / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
The Fed has has hinted that it will launch a second round of quantitative easing (QE) sometime after its November 2 meeting. The anticipated intervention has been widely criticized, but for all the wrong reasons. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke knows that adding another $1 to $1.5 trillion to bulging bank reserves will likely have little effect on aggregate demand. Nor will it lower unemployment now hovering at 9.7%. It will, however, send a message to trading partners (re: China) that the Fed is serious about reducing destabilizing trade imbalances that siphon-off domestic stimulus, increase unemployment and keep the dollar perilously overvalued. In other words, the Fed's action is the first volley in what is likely to be a protracted currency war that leads to the final demise of Bretton Woods 2.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Fed’s Bizarre Tactics Target Weaker U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Is the Federal Reserve (Fed) experiencing a midlife crisis? Ever since Fed Chairman Bernanke gave a speech in Jackson Hole, Fed behavior can be summarized as, well, bizarre. According to Bernanke, the market’s inflation expectations may be too low. He considers three possible remedies:
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
China’s Plan to Dethrone the U.S. Dollar as Worlds Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: The U.S. dollar is on the way out as the world's top reserve currency. And as Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald predicted more than a year and a half ago, the yuan could be set to replace it.
The greenback has served as the world's benchmark reserve currency since the mid-20th century, but soaring deficits and the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy have drained the dollar's value.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
USD Index Trend Forecast Into Mid 2011, U.S. Dollar Collapse (Again)? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Following the USD Index peak at 89 in early June 2010, the Dollar has been on a near relentlessly slide to the recent low of 76.90 which represents a 14% fall in just 4 months. The fall in the Dollar has again brought out the perma Dollar collapse proponents who have periodically come out to reiterate that the U.S. Dollar as measured by the USD index is destined to crash and burn which is set against the perma deflationists who continuously propose that DEFLATION will result in the Dollar rallying to new highs as a consequence of debt deleveraging, which again was most prevalent just as the U.S. Dollar peaked. Therefore this in-depth analysis will seek to conclude towards a probable trend forecast for the USD index into Mid 2011 (9 months forward).
Monday, October 11, 2010
U.S. Dollar Could Rally In Coming Weeks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Ciovacco
When one side of any market gets crowded, it is time to prepare for a possible reversal. While there are numerous reasons to be bearish on the U.S. dollar long-term, there are some short-to-intermediate-term factors that may cause the dollar to stage a counter-trend rally in the coming weeks. As we monitor the dollar, we must also consider the possible impact on “weak dollar assets” such as gold (GLD), silver (SLV), copper (JJC), oil (USO), agricultural commodities (DBA), Australian dollar (FXA), Canadian dollar (FXC), and emerging markets (EEM).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 09, 2010
U.S. Dollar in trouble following job’s report / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
An already weak US dollar took another hit early Friday (October 8) morning following the latest report on jobs. According to new Labor Department numbers, 95,000 workers were cut by US employers during the month of September.
The number of new jobless claims was far worse than analysts had predicted. Bloomberg News, for instance, forecasted just 5,000 new job cuts in its survey of economists.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 07, 2010
U.S. Dollar At Support, Bounce Likely / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bull ETF (symbol: UUP).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 07, 2010
Does a U.S. Dollar Crash Loom? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Clif_Droke
Even if you’re not one who tracks currency values, you just knew the dollar was on the ropes again if you bothered to check your mail box. Whenever the dollar shows any sustained weakness the newsletter publishers will send out bulk mail advertisements with sensational headlines like, “Dollar Crash Looms!” or “The Dollar Will Soon Be Devalued and Replaced.” After receiving two such mailings on the same day last week, it was obvious to me what the investor sentiment was like on the greenback. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 01, 2010
Can Nuclear Power Bolster The Wilting U.S. Dollar ? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andrew_McKillop
It could seem surprising to ask this question, but desperate problems call forth innovative remedies - and conventional wisdom has it that Barack Obama’s administration is on the economic ropes. The problem is that un-conventional wisdom says the same thing but comes to the same conclusion along different pathways.
Friday, October 01, 2010
U.S. Dollar Race to the Bottom / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Long ago, before economic models developed their current levels of sophistication, it used to be that the goal of a government's economic policy was to bring prosperity to its citizens; in other words, to raise the general level of material comfort, while at the same time reducing the amount of toil required to attain that end.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 30, 2010
U.S. Dollar Weakens Against Major Currencies / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
The euro, pound and yen are among major currencies that have taken advantage of a weaker dollar again this week. The dollar, already sluggish in lieu of ongoing unemployment concerns, slid further following the Fed’s announcement last week that it plans to buy US Treasuries to effectively infuse cash into the economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 30, 2010
U.S. Dollar is on the Edge / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bob_Kirtley
Every picture tells a story and the below chart shows the US Dollar heading down the tubes in contrast to the ascendancy of gold prices, silver prices and the unhedged mining companies that comprise the HUI. The USD has dropped from ‘88′ to ‘78′ in 4 months, a fall of 11.40%. Just imagine being a cabinet member of a foreign government with a pile of trade generated dollars on your hands, watching them disintegrate before your eyes!
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Cram Down the Ultimate $100 Trillion Bailout, U.S. Dollar Value Fast Meltdown Ahead / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Kitze
If you've never heard of a "Cram Down", you are about to get a first hand lesson on the receiving end of the biggest one in history. The words "Cram Down" used to be reserved for companies in bankruptcy or smaller venture backed companies that run out of cash and are recapitalized by "cramming down" the equity held by existing shareholders. The only other alternative to closing the doors is to reorganize the ownership structure to attract new capital and keep it in business. Those who don't have the money to play in the next round -- i.e. don't have a money printing press -- will get wiped out . Having personally experienced a number of these unpleasant affairs in various businesses, you are definitely better off giving than receiving a Cram Down.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
U.S. Dollar Falls below USD 80, the Currency Crisis Has Begun / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
It's been my position for a while that Bernanke's monetary policy would eventually create a currency crisis in the world’s reserve currency.
I warned that crisis would begin as soon as it became apparent the dollar was caught in the grip of the 3 year cycle decline.
Monday, September 20, 2010
For a Clear View of the Dollar’s Pressure Watch the Swiss Franc / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Swiss Franc has enjoyed a strong rally against the Dollar spread over many years with a brief correction around the turn of the millennia. Although a small economy compared to the US, it is well known how strong the Swiss economy is and the standard of living is among the highest in the World.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Japan Currency Intervenention to Bail Out America / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, after the Japanese yen had surged to a fifteen-year high against the US dollar, the Japanese government decided to intervene in the foreign exchange market. To great fanfare, the Bank of Japan initiated a vigorous campaign to buy US dollars, thereby stemming the rise of the yen and pulling up the greenback. The effects were immediate, with the yen falling an astonishing 3% on the day of the announcement. At a time when American politicians are growing increasingly vocal about China's currency manipulations, Washington was strangely silent on the Japanese move. This was completely overlooked by the hawkeyed media.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Who Owns the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
At first glance, this would seem like a rather silly, stupid and pointless question. Why, the average person would answer, the American people own it. Or rather, if one had to get more technical, the American government, which is in turn, being a Republic, owned by the people, one in the same.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Elliot Wave Super Cycle, End of the World Deflation Never Had a Chance / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
Lately we've been hearing a lot of talk about Kondratieff cycles, Elliot Wave super cycle, end of the world, deflation, deflation, deflation.
What the deflationists fail to acknowledge is that in a purely fiat monetary system deflation is a choice not an inevitability. To put it in simple terms, if a government is willing to sacrifice its currency there is absolutely no way deflation can take hold in a modern monetary system.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
U.S. Dollar Threatened by Fannie & Freddie / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Social subsidies may make good politics, but all too often bad economics. When Fannie Mae was created in 1938, the seeds were planted for the biggest housing bust the world has ever seen; the going was good while the party lasted for the first 80 years, but ended in the financial crisis of 2008 – the hangover for many still remains. In 2008, many feared the dollar might collapse should Fannie Mae and its smaller cousin Freddie Mac (together here Government Sponsored Entities or GSEs) fail; little did those so fearful know that the government would embark on the largest bailout in history; the U.S. dollar rallied as the GSEs were put into conservatorship, making the previous implicit government guarantee just about as explicit as is possible.
Monday, August 23, 2010
China Ditches the U.S. Dollar, Are Times Changing? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: money_morning_au
Shae Smith writes: We all know the US flogs its debt to anyone willing to buy it. And up until recently, that's been China.Very slowly, over the past twelve months China has been lowering its exposure to US treasuries. In fact, in the last twelve months, they've offloaded about USD$100 billion dollars worth.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 20, 2010
What Problems Lie Ahead for the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The recent history of the Dollar
China is the largest holder of the U.S. Dollar in its foreign exchange reserves at $2.45 + trillion. This is an impossible number to trade on foreign exchanges. So they're stuck with them until they can spend them. But, as long as the U.S. Dollar is the world's sole reserve currency, these reserves are useful to buy any asset in any country. It is vital that they retain their buying power. Buying power is defined by its exchange rate value and inside the U.S. relates to the inflation rate.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 13, 2010
It's the Third and Final Act for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LewRockwell
Jeff Fisher writes: The US credit system is in the midst of its third credit crisis since the advent of the Federal Reserve.
The first credit crisis was a deflation that morphed into the Great Depression. (See Rothbard's: America's Great Depression.)
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 12, 2010
How to Profit From the Fed's U.S. Dollar Destruction Policy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: This week's decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to buy Treasuries in an effort to prop up borrowing is further proof that the economy is worse off than policymakers would have us believe. But more than that, the Fed's Treasury purchase plan is just one more reason for investors to anticipate inflation and take steps to protect their money from it.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
EURIBOR, Euro and USD Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Many have expressed scepticism with strength of the euro at a time when EURIBOR and EUR-Libor rates remained on the rise. EUR 3-month LIBOR stands at 12-month high of 0.83%, up 46% from its March lows. Yet unlike in April-May when rising Eurozone rates resulted from plummeting inter-bank confidence and falling liquidity in the system, the recent strengthening in Eurzone interbank rates has been partly boosted by improved macroeconomic/bank earnings figures, as well as a stabilizing currency.
Monday, August 02, 2010
US Dollar Index Declines as Eurodollar Short Squeeze Ends / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jesse
Dollar LIBOR is the 'tell' as european banks scramble to obtain US dollars to satisfy customer demand, they drive the 'price' of the dollar higher. The cause of the squeeze was the euro uncertainty based on ratings downgrades on Greece, and the hedge funds determined selling of the euro, which created a sell off in euros.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
U.S. Dollar Stress Next? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The crisis is dead! Long live the crisis! In an attempt to address the debt crises swirling around the globe, policy makers have responded with a mishmash of somewhat questionable approaches:
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Evolving Global Financial Crisis, U.S. Dollar Heading Down Again / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bob_Chapman
As we long ago predicted, 2005 was the beginning of the collapse of the housing bubble. The result was financial chaos and a credit crisis that enveloped the US, Europe and eventually the world. Some would like us to believe that materialism and selfishness were the reasons for bubbles, but the causes go far deeper than that. US, UK and European central banks, due to their greed for power, and a desire for world government, allowed debt to get totally out of control.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Positive Corporate Eearnings Reports Boost U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
The dollar has been getting hammered in recent weeks as renewed concerns about the economy caused many to get out of long dollar positions. However, several positive earnings reports to start the week have helped give the greenback a boost against most major currencies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 16, 2010
Time for U.S. Dollar Bounce as Peter Schiff Forecasts Dollar Rout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
The time for a dollar bounce is at hand. One reason I make that statement is the single best contrarian indicator on the US dollar has spoken.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Is it time for the U.S. Dollar Index to Rally? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
The dollar index, which put in a strong performance in the first six months of the year, pulled back from its recent highs and appears to be in defensive mode.
If you are not familiar with the US dollar index (USDX), it is an index, or measure, of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Floating Exchange Rates, Scheme to Embezzle the Dollar Balances of Surplus Countries / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Professor_Emeritus
Milton Friedman's theory of floating exchange rates, on which the international monetary system has been based since 1971, has given rise to a coercive regime in the sense that IMF statutes forbid member countries to stabilize the value of their currencies. A country attempting to do that is branded "a currency manipulator" and is threatened with trade sanctions. The prohibition is understandable. It is designed to protect the scheme whereby the dollar balances of the surplus countries are stealthily embezzled. It works as follows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Dollar Hammered by Yen as Job Concerns Remain / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
The dollar has quietly slipped against the yen in this week’s currency trade while remaining mostly flat against other major counterparts including the Euro and British Pound. A less than stellar round of economic reports Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (June 30) morning have cast a dark cloud over optimism for economic recovery.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Is it Time to Bet Against the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: The U.S. dollar has been one of the world's strongest currencies in the first part of 2010.
And it's no wonder. The Greek debt crisis continues to threaten Europe's overall health, and could unleash an entirely new contagion on the rest of the global economy. Then there's China, - the engine of world growth during much of the financial crisis - which now appears to face the near-term triple threat of slowing growth, accelerating inflation and workplace unrest. Add in concerns about commodity prices and global debt levels and it's easy to see why currency investors have sought the safe haven of the U.S. dollar.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Stock Market SPX Driving U.S. Dollar Trend / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
So far this year, the US dollar has enjoyed a strong performance. Traders carefully watch this flagship currency since its fortunes affect virtually everything, from world-trade balances to global financial markets to commodities prices. Given the dollar’s universal impact, understanding its drivers is essential for gaming all kinds of markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 21, 2010
U.S. Dollar Top Forecast, How to Play the Bear Side / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Larry D. Spears writes: In spite of an assortment of economic uncertainties at home, the U.S. dollar has been the star of the currency world for most of 2010. Spooked by persistent and seemingly insurmountable debt problems east of the Atlantic and the specter of unsustainable growth and potential inflation on the Pacific side of the globe, savers and investors fled European and Asian currencies for the relative safe haven of the dollar.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
The U.S. Dollar’s Bull Market Is Just Getting Started! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bryan_Rich
The dollar index has surged 20 percent since last November. And this week, it was sniffing around its 2009 high!
That’s pretty impressive, especially given that the 2009 high was driven by an across the board, global flight to the dollar … underpinned by one of the worst combinations of financial crisis and global economic recession on record.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 10, 2010
U.S. Dollar's Days are Numbered / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: The U.S. dollar has been one of the world's strongest currencies in the first part of 2010, posting double-digit gains through the end of May.
And little wonder. The Greek debt crisis continues to threaten Europe's overall health, and could unleash an entirely new contagion on the rest of the global economy. Then there's China, - the engine of world growth during much of the financial crisis - which now appears to face the near-term triple threat of slowing growth, accelerating inflation and workplace unrest. Add in concerns about commodity prices and global debt levels and it's easy to see why currency investors have sought the safe haven of the U.S. dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
New Financial world 2012 and the End of Days Prophecy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
We talked several months ago about how our estimate of when the USD really hits the fan came to be around 2012. That was an accident, not intentional. We mentioned then that we found that very intriguing. That is because the USD is so central to our present financial world that, if it fell apart, the outcomes would be so severe that the financial world, and even just how money works, would be turned upside down.
Monday, June 07, 2010
Why a Rising U.S. Dollar Is Horrible News for China / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: Hugh Hendry is the famous British hedge-fund manager who predicted the banking crisis and made 40% in 2008. Every few months, Hendry writes a letter to his investors, called the Eclectica Monthly Letter. It's among the best financial commentary you'll find anywhere on the Internet.
Saturday, June 05, 2010
U.S. Dollar Soars Against Crumbling Euro as Hungary Next for Debt Default Bailout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
The situation in Europe is taking a turn for the worse as the Prime Minister of Hungary says Hungarian economy is in a "very grave situation and talk of a default is not an exaggeration".
Friday, June 04, 2010
The Dollar Euro Bears Should Relax –It’s Coming Their Way / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Macro Trader’s view: The Dollar has benefited greatly from the Sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone, as traders sold the Euro amid fears the single currency might actually break up. Initially, traders were concerned the debt mountain built up by mainly by Greece, but also Spain and Portugal posed a serious risk, and the authorities acted to address that.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Gold Correction Factors, Hidden Dollar Swap Hammer / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Let me start the article with a personal note. For the last six years, my pen has put forth a public article almost every week. Since the end of 2009, a change has come from that pattern, for four reasons. First, articles take time and serve as free volleys sent into cyberspace. They are attempts to raise awareness of a broken corrupt system, to encourage increased investment protection by the investment community, and to make repetitive messages that can sink in. Second, many of the warnings have come true of a monetary system in tatters, an insolvent banking system, a failed central bank franchise system, and a discredited amalgam of sovereign bond markets.
Wednesday, May 05, 2010
America's Failed Dollar Strategy, Greek Debt Crisis Will Slow the Yuan's Advance / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Poor Tim Geithner.
Pushed by angry U.S. legislators anxious to brand China as a "currency manipulator," the U.S. Treasury secretary tried to strong-arm China into revaluing the yuan - all because of an assumption that the Asian giant wasn't allowing its currency to appreciate.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 03, 2010
U.S. Dollar Doomsday Crash 2010, Protect Your Wealth With Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Larry_Edelson
If you think that what’s happening to the bankrupt economies of Greece, Portugal, and Spain are merely a sideshow in this great financial crisis, it’s only fair to warn you:
The facts I reveal in this bulletin are shocking … shameful … and, to anyone who cares as much about this nation as I do, deeply disturbing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 29, 2010
U.S. Dollar Mixed After Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
The Fed concluded its Board meeting Wednesday afternoon (April 28) by announcing that it was leaving interest rates unchanged with the key funds rate near zero per cent. The announcement is not surprising given most of the Central Bank leaders’ commitment to leave rates low for an ‘extended period’, but it is interesting to see following a month long crusade by a few economists and leaders to advocate for raising rates to stave off inflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 23, 2010
U.S. Dollar Shines After Upbeat Unemployment and Housing News / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
Two very positive reports on the economy Thursday (April 22) morning have helped strengthen the dollar against major currencies and commodities. Home sales were relatively strongly during the month of March and last week’s new jobless claims fell by 24,000 from the week before, in line with analyst estimates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 22, 2010
The Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar, Gold's Springboard / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The need is urgent. The recognition is broad. Supply & Demand of American debt paper demand price adjustment. The USGovt avoids the topic like the plague. The billboard fact of the matter, as USCongressional politicians like to say, is that the USDollar must be take a downward revaluation of significant magnitude in order to even begin to offer a semblance of equilibrium and balance. Natural forces are aligned against those in power who resist the adjustment. Imbalances are too magnificent. They invite continued global revolt and financial insurrection.
Monday, April 19, 2010
U.S. Dollar Devaluation, Phase Two / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Larry_Edelson
Recently, I’ve issued several warnings. Chief among them …
That investors everywhere are waking up to their leaders as being nothing more than emperors with no clothes. Reckless spenders with not a single clue of what they’re doing and full of false hopes.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Can U.S. Dollar Remain the World's Reserve Currency? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Jane D'Arista: US dollar as world's reserve currency is great if you own a bank; not much good for Main St.
Friday, April 16, 2010
U.S. Dollar Wins as $18 Billion Jobless Benefits Bill Becomes Law / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
The dollar made gains on Thursday (April 15) against most major currencies and also put a wrap on driving oil prices and gold prices. The dollar’s strength is due partly to the rapid passing of an $18 billion extension of unemployment benefits for hundreds of thousands of people that have been struggling after their state-paid unemployment benefits ran out.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 15, 2010
U.S. Dollar Grave Concerns Remain / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
We continue to see risks ahead for the U.S. economy, and in particular, the U.S. dollar. Significant global imbalances remain – indeed; the recent global financial crisis has served to exaggerate many of these imbalances. Of grave concern is the unsustainable Federal budget deficit, which may have morphed out of control, with no signs of government constraint over the near-term. The U.S. current account deficit remains at a high level, and will likely weigh on the dollar for years to come.
Thursday, April 01, 2010
U.S. Dollar Climbing Against Yen / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Steven_Vincent
Everyday this week (so far) the USD has climbed against the Yen. Today's action, in particular, is impressive because the USD has climbed, hurdled and sustained above its prior significant recovery rally peak at 93.78, which was established in Jan. The fact that the USD is so relatively strong vis-à-vis the Yen likely reflects the perceived and actual strengthening of the US economy compared with Japan. Tomorrow's Employment data (non-farm payrolls) could provide the catalyst for another thrust in USD/Yen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 26, 2010
U.S. Dollar Index Going Higher? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
It has been a while since we looked at the dollar index, so today we decided to dissect this market and look at it step-by-step.
What is happening in this market is very interesting and I think you will see in this short video just what we have in mind.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Will the U.S. Dollar Continue Rallying? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Now that we see the USD rising again over 81 on the US Dollar Index (USDX) the question becomes will we possibly see 91 USDX sometime in 2010?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 25, 2010
U.S. Dollar Gains on Healthcare Reform and Economic Hope / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
Sparked by continued optimism about the economic situation and enthusiasm surrounding the passing of the massive healthcare system overhaul, the dollar has surged this week against major currencies and commodities.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
The U.S. Dollar Rules / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Steve_Betts
Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get! - Forrest Gump
Today is a continuation of yesterday in the sense that we are seeing some markets breakout and define their new directions. Yesterday the Dow posted a triple digit gain and closed well above what should have been strong resistance at 10,817, and early this morning we saw the US dollar rocket thru what had been strong resistance at 81.32. Right now the June US dollar futures contract is trading up .92 at 82.03, and although I can’t be sure where it will close, I feel fairly confident in saying that it will close above 81.32. The significance of this move is important and implies a lot more than the fact that the dollar is currently “strong”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
U.S. Dollar Trend and China News Impact on Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Przemyslaw_Radomski
In the March 12-th commentary we've discussed the influence that China might have on the precious metals market and since the feedback was very positive, we decided to provide you with a follow-up.
April 15th is the date to watch. That’s when the U.S. Treasury Department is mandated by law to issue a report identifying nations that “manipulate the rate of exchange between their currency and the United States dollar for purposes of …gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 19, 2010
The U.S. Dollar Index Rally Move Isn't Done / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
I will keep this brief as my rational for the new found strength in the Dollar Index is more observational than "scientific". Some things you just can't back test or measure in a methodical fashion or I just haven't figured out how to do it.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Is The U.S. Dollar Reversing Again? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
It's been a while since we did a video on the euro/dollar relationship. This relationship may be reversing again based on recent price action. In today's short video I point out some of the changes we see happening in this market.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
The Four Stages of the Prospective U.S. Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bryan_Rich
Since last November, the dollar has climbed steadily against a basket of currencies — most notably against the euro. And based on my analysis, I think it’s just the early stages of this trend.
In fact, for many of the reasons I’ve discussed in past Money and Markets columns, the weight of evidence suggests that we’ve likely seen the bottom in the dollar, with a multi-year bull market ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Marc Faber Says Cash is High Risk, U.S. Dollar Will Eventually Fall to Zero / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, reveals his views on the inflation/deflation, of the US dollar. Marc says, cash and treasury bond will lose and the winners will be foreign currency and commodities. Equities have some power to hedge inflation.
Friday, March 12, 2010
U.S. Dollar Bulls Beware / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
By late 2009, as the U.S. dollar flirted with multi-year lows against most foreign currencies, big investment players crowded into trades that shorted the greenback. Commentators noted that the anti-dollar momentum had taken on a life of its own and that the trade had become too crowded. It is true that markets have a nasty tendency to move against the crowd. When a lot of traders agree on a particular trade, it's more likely that in the short-run the opposite trade will be a winner.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Chinese Yuan v The U.S. Dollar: In The Case of Global Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dian_L_Chu
The practice of accumulating dollar reserves by the central banks has become more pronounced after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when currency speculators hastened a balance of payments crisis in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea by demanding dollars for local currency, depleting the central banks’ dollar reserves.
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
U.S. Credit Turns to Debt, Will The U.S. Devalue The Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The ability to wage war on credit gave the West an insurmountable advantage over the East. The West’s credit, however, has now turned to debt and the West has lost its advantage. But the return to parity will not be easy.
The three hundred year economic expansion fueled by debt-based capital markets is coming to an end and with it, the hegemony of the West over the East. During that period, debt-based paper money propelled first England then the US to world dominion because of the ability to wage war on credit and to print money ad infinitum.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 01, 2010
Falling U.S. Dollar, Buoyant Equities / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
While the e-mini S&P 500 appears to be consolidating at the top of its upmove from last Thursday’s pivot low at 1084.59, the DXY (cash dollar index) is in the process of giving back most of its upmove from earlier today. As of this moment, the combination of a falling dollar and buoyant equity indices argues for continued upside in the commodity-related names and indices into the closing bell – especially in the metals and mining names, including ETFs such as the GDX and GLD.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Still Living in a U.S. Dollar Centric World / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Justice_Litle
Abstract: For all its fatal flaws, the $USD is still king of the hill – and for now at least, the focus of investor optimism has shifted to the United States.
With apologies to Mark Twain, the dollar’s death has been greatly exaggerated. We can see this with a simple glance at the $USD chart below.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 21, 2010
U.S. Dollar Entering Consolidation Phase / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
It appears that we are either just entering the consolidation phase of the US dollar index for the next 6 to 8 weeks or there is one final move to the upside before entering the consolidation phase. Every market around the globe is experiencing difficulty in one form or another which is associated with high debt levels.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
U.S. Dollar Fool's Gold Rally, Protect Yourself Against Worthless Fiat Paper / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
Although in truth, it is valueless paper; in our collective reality, it is real and has legal purchasing powers. Despite such enslavement by government decree, it does not stop us from trading it, and hedging against its true intrinsic value.
The fool's gold to which we refer is none other than the world's reserve currency, the $USD.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 19, 2010
U.S. Dollar Still Looks Strong Against the Euro / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Macro Trader’s view:
The current Dollar rally began late in 2009 and was driven initially by some strong US economic data. But even when that data turned a little mixed, the Dollar continued to rally.
Friday, February 12, 2010
US Dollar Bear Market Rallies / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
In recent months, the US dollar has been surging higher. This impressive strength is a radical change from last year’s relentless grind lower. Across the globe, the majority of analysts expect this run higher to persist for a variety of reasons. This prospect is troubling traders of commodities and commodities stocks.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Win-Win Scenario for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bryan_Rich
The debt problems in Dubai threw a wrench in the happy-go-lucky risk trade of last year. And since then, the perception of the state of the global economy has been unraveling.
All of the sudden, the world isn’t as safe a place as was thought just months ago: Global stock markets are falling, commodity markets have cracked, and foreign currencies are back in decline.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 06, 2010
The U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Sol_Palha
"When you get into a tight place and everything goes against you, till it seems as though you could not hold on a minute longer, never give up then, for that is just the place and time that the tide will turn." ~ Harriet Beecher Stowe, 1811-1896, American Novelist, Antislavery Campaigner
This is one topic we spoke of extensively over the past few months and we are going to list excerpts from some past updates with emphasis on the Dec 16th market update.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 05, 2010
More Upside for U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The DXY (cash dollar index) continues to leap higher in reaction to uncertainties about the sovereign debt conditions of a subset of countries referred to as the PIIGS. Let's notice that after emerging to the upside on 1/28 above 23.20, the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index (NYSE: UUP) has rocketed 2% in the past 6 sessions amidst constant negative news about widening Greek, Spanish, and Portugese CDS spreads.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
What’s Next for the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) is sticking to its course for phasing out the additional purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Notably however, in its statement released January 27th, reference to an improving housing market was omitted after recent bad news about the sector.
Monday, February 01, 2010
U.S. Dollar In Jeopardy Of Losing Its Value / Currencies / US Dollar
By: FutureOfDollar
The World is concerned that the dollar cannot play the role of the main reserve currency any longer after the financial crisis sparked by the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market led to the worst global recession since the 1930s. The Government’s stimulus packages, financial bailouts, the need to support liquidity in Treasuries, keeping interest rates at the lowest level under the circumstances of low economic growth, high unemployment and low tax collection make it print more dollars. This leads to a high risk of substantial inflation, or hyperinflation in a long-run.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Fed’s Currency Swap Lines, A BIG deal for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bryan_Rich
The Fed met this week on monetary policy. It was a bit of a snoozer. What wasn’t a snoozer, however, was what they’ve included in their recent monetary policy statements regarding currencies.
Most market participants have been entranced by the Fed’s language about their target interest rates …
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
U.S. Dollar Gains Against Major Currencies and Commodities / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
dollar has grown stronger to start this week, gaining ground against most major currencies and commodities, the Japanese yen, being the prominent exception.
The gold price spot rate is at $1,091, after a Tuesday New York Mercantile Exchange close just below $1,100. The gold rate is well below its all time high of $1,218.25 near the end of 2009.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 25, 2010
U.S. Dollar Giant Double Top Pattern Implies Bearish Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Howard_Katz
KISS is an acronym for the popular expression, keep it simple, stupid. I don’t particularly like the idea of calling others stupid. I have found that people who do so usually have an inability to express themselves, and this is because they themselves are stupid. Most people I have met in this world can do at least something better than I can, and I can benefit from their expertise. (This is what the economist calls division of labor and specialization.) At any rate, the simple part is very good. Most great ideas are simple (the 10 Commandments, Newton’s laws of motion).
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Why the U.S. Dollar Rally Has Legs / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bryan_Rich
In December I wrote a Money and Markets column making the case for a bottom in the dollar. And since then the evidence supporting that thesis has grown. I also said there are plenty of ugly currencies out there that will likely take scrutiny away from the dollar. In fact, in recent weeks I outlined the blemishes burdening three key major liquid currencies. And those blemishes are now being exposed …
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
U.S. Dollar Bottoming Against Yen / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's have a look at the BIG picture chart structure of Dollar vs. Yen, which argues for an approaching upmove in the USD (Yen weakness). Purely from an intermediate-term technical perspective, the pattern carved out by the USD/Yen since early 2007 into late 2009 has the right look of a completed downmove in the USD versus the Yen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
How Can Localities Cope if the U.S. Dollar Crashes? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_C_Cook
A “run on the dollar,” or any currency, for that matter, takes place when the currency is losing its value. This happens when a country’s debt becomes so great that there is danger of a major default–that is, large scale or even national bankruptcy. At that point, people whose wealth is in that currency, or in relatively liquid assets denominated in the currency, try to get rid of them as fast as they can. Today, that includes foreign countries like China or Russia that are holding large quantities of U.S. government bonds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
U.S. Dollar Index Expected to Rise During 2010 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
In 2009, investors were down on the US Dollar, and anytime the US Dollar was down, everything else was up. But as we head into 2010, the US Dollar appears to have found support above the all time lows made around $70 in March, 2008 and reversed higher. There is reason to believe that from a technical perspective this reversal is for real, and it is real enough that it should have implications for other markets.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Is a Run on the U.S. Dollar Starting Soon? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_C_Cook
Yes, I think a run on the dollar is coming. A lot of people are saying this, including a man named Dmitri Orlov who recently came out with a book entitled “Reinventing Collapse” that compares the crash of the Soviet Union in the 1990s with what he believes is coming here within a short period of time. I heard that at the last meeting of the G20 the U.S. asked Russia and China if they would agree to an orderly devaluation of the dollar, and the answer was “Nyet.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 18, 2010
How to Profit From the Falling U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Larry_Edelson
As many of you already know, I am very bearish on the dollar.
And in just the past four weeks of trading — starting right before the holidays and continuing into the new year — the benchmark U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has lost nearly 9% of its value against the world’s major foreign currencies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 18, 2010
2010 To Mark the Demise of the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Captain_Hook
Well, that was another year, and decade, one that was characterized by exacting prices for almost a century of easy money led by the Fed. And it continues today with bubble dynamics in economies and markets considered a normal expectation these days, explaining why gold was top performer over the past 10-years, and should remain in that spot moving forward as well baring silver’s remonetization. That is to say, anybody, like Time Magazine, expecting smooth sailing over the next 10-years is most likely barking up the wrong tree with all the problems that still lie ahead for us, problems ranging from increasingly unmanageable debts and deficits, which are a result of the big turn in the credit cycle in 2008, to the pending demise of the dollar ($) as the world’s reserve currency
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Dollar Struggles Again After Latest Jobs Data, Housing Market News / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
Exchange rates have not been favorable for the US dollar in the early part of the week as the greenback has been hit again following disappointing news of late on the job and housing sector fronts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 08, 2010
U.S. Dollar to be Hit Hard In 2010 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
The feast of cheap and limitless liquidity could not avoid interfering with the international currency market. While in the first six months of the year the crisis was beneficial for the US dollar, in the second half of the year speculators took it out on the dollar over and above. This year is expected to continue weakening of the American currency that dropped to the level of $1.6 for one Euro in 2009.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Gold or U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The chicken or the egg? Which is which: gold or the dollar? My work is telling me to watch the $$$, and the rest will take care of itself. From a technical perspective, let's notice that the daily dollar index (DXY) has been consolidating at the high end of its Nov-Dec upleg, which has taken the form of a bullish continuation pattern. If my perception of the pattern proves accurate, then the DXY is on the verge of upside acceleration that will resume its Nov-Dec rally-- on the way to 80.00 next.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
U.S. Dollar Collapse 2012 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Devolution of the USD 2012? - As the first public article for me just before 2010, it seems appropriate for me to comment on one of the biggest stories we will be all facing – that is an end game of events leading to the end of the USD. The implications for the world are no less than Armageddon – like. I mean it.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
U.S. Dollar Grinds Higher after Convincing Breakout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_Brown
Sometimes, as traders, we need to stop and do a double-take, especially when a long-depressed commodity or currency suddenly begins to rise sharply. In the case of the US Dollar index (DX), there were most likely thousands of double-takes, as disbelieving traders took a second, third and even a fourth glance at this key currency’s daily and weekly charts. Yes, this Dollar breakout appears to be the real deal, one destined to run even higher in the weeks just ahead, and it might pay for us to invest a little time now and see if we can anticipate the Dollar’s next area of significant overhead resistance.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Has the U.S. Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bryan_Rich
For much of 2009, the dollar has been the Tiger Woods of global currencies. There has been a relentless snowball of negative sentiment. And for a period of time, seemingly everyday something new, bigger and more shocking about the buck was being circulated through the media.
As Tiger can attest, when it rains, it pours …
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 18, 2009
U.S. Dollar Rally for Real? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Sy_Harding
In this column in September, I wrote of how the U.S. dollar has been in a long bear market since 2001, while investors and traders were acting as if the dollar’s decline had just begun this year. Betting against the dollar had become the talk of the financial media, with “Sell the dollar, buy the Euro” the most popular advice from analysts.
Friday, December 18, 2009
US Dollar Bulls Stirring, But Not Yet Wide Awake / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
Over the last few months the US Dollar Index has continued to grind lower, recently reaching/eroding a long term 76.4% ‘support’ level. Subsequent to this there has been a positive reaction, with s/term bull signals beginning to mount.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Has the U.S. Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
We have made a number of videos on the dollar index and in my latest video I show you some of the aspects we outlined in our previous video that have come to pass.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar Remains Near Two Month High / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
The US dollar fell back a bit Wednesday (December 16) morning as analysts believe the Fed is likely to leave its key interest rate at zero. New data on consumer prices show little change after 10 months of increases, suggesting inflation is not a big enough concern at this point to warrant an immediate rise in rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index, End to the Downtrend? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY). In our last look at the greenback I stated: "in all likelihood, this is the end of the down trend for the Dollar Index", and this is now fact! A weekly close over the high of the positive divergence bar (i.e., price bars marked in pink within gray ovals) has stymied the down trend. The highs of these positive divergence bars should act as resistance on the way back up.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
What Could Lift the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bryan_Rich
The most recent employment data in the U.S. came in significantly better than what was expected. And the financial markets reacted in a different way this time. Interest rates went screaming higher, the stock market surged, gold fell and the dollar shot up.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
The Coming Cyclical Collapse of the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bob_Clark
Ask not for whom the bell tolls
We are having our first winter blizzard, the windows were rattling all night. There are knee deep snow drifts in places. When I went out to feed the horse this morning, I found a coyote asleep in the hay. I guess he is a little bit deaf because he didn't jump up until I was on top of him. I don't know who was more scared. It was a most pitiful thing to see. Skin and bones. Mottled patchy fur with a hairless tail, except for a little tuft on the end.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 07, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Bottom? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
It's Monday, and there is no better place to start the week with the only asset that has mattered for the past 8 months - the Dollar. Although Friday's job report brought a spike in the Dollar Index, the down trend remains intact. However, the likelihood of the downtrend ending leading to a counter trend rally or consolidation is now as high as it has been in months.
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
How Could I Forget the Only Market Chart that Matters? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Dollar Index. This is the same chart I have been showing since June, 2009 - prior to the Dollar Index unraveling. Last week there was a weekly close (price bar with down red arrows) below the low of the immediate positive divergence bar at 75.20. Closes below positive divergence bars (price bars highlighted in pink with gray oval) tend to lead to selling as traders expecting a reversal close out their losing positions. The down trend continues, and as the data shows, there is a high likelihood of the downward move accelerating.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
U.S. Dollar Implications of Dubai Debt Jitters / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Thanksgiving eve, Dubai World, Dubai’s state-owned development company, rattled the world by releasing a statement that it seeks a moratorium on its debt and interest payments until May 2010. The credit crisis is not last year’s nightmare - it has merely entered a new phase. We look at the implications for the U.S. dollar.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Run on the U.S. Dollar ....Soon / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyWealth
Porter Stansberry writes: It's one of those numbers that's so unbelievable you have to actually think about it for a while...
Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt. And that's not counting any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion.
Monday, November 30, 2009
U.S. Dollar Set To Surprise by Falling to Test All Time Low / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Captain_Hook
The dollar ($) is set to surprise the few remaining speculators that think it can't happen by falling further straight away, possibly taking it down to test all time lows at 71. Here, we are talking about the possibility of a more disorderly decline in the $ developing as a result of gold progressing into a parabolic rise, primarily predicated on year-end hedge fund buying into December. First it will be this that takes precious metals higher into year-end, and then the rally could continue for numerous other reasons, not the least of which being a lack of physical, which appears to be a growing concern.
Saturday, November 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index May Hold Some Nasty Surprises for Carry Trade Participants / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Brian_Bloom
Summary and Conclusions -
The US Dollar Index is showing signs of wanting to bottom out and this has seriously adverse implications for those who have been speculating with US Dollar carry trades. It may also be pointing to the imminent resumption of the Primary Bear Trend in Industrial Equities. The gold price may consolidate at these levels within the context of a Primary Bull Market. i.e. Both the US Dollar Index and the Gold Price might be argued to be in Primary Bull Markets.
Friday, November 27, 2009
The Day the U.S. Dollar Collapsed / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Galt
The following story is a potential fictional time line for the day the dollar died. I hope not to instill fear or loathing but to give everyone some perspective on a POSSIBLE outcome which does not really take much of a reach to come to any conclusion. Despite popular belief and promises from those who wish to rob you of your savings and investments, the collapse of the dollar might just be an event measured in hours, not days as their control is not what it seems….
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Yen Hits 14 Year High vs U.S. Dollar as Nikkei Sinks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are noting a selloff in equity market futures as the Yen rallies and the dollar sinks further.
Monday, November 23, 2009
What Happens When a Carry Trade Blows Up? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
As I’ve been pounding the table for the last several months, the markets have been operating based on an “inflation” trade mentality. By this, I mean that we’re in a “Dollar down/ everything else up” environment.
This is to be expected. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been doing everything he can to re-inflate the markets, hoping he can counteract the deflationary impact of the Housing Crash/ Credit Bubble bursting.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 21, 2009
The Fed is Foolishly Weakening the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Navarro
Has America's Federal Reserve become the single greatest obstacle to global economic recovery? Central bankers around the world are increasingly asking this question as the American greenback continues its Fed-inspired decline and damages the export-driven growth of countries from Latin America and Asia to Europe.
Friday, November 20, 2009
The Weak U.S. Dollar Was Supposed to Fix Everything / Economics / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
The inflation redux plan from the Fed and Washington is based on zero interest rates, massive deficits and quantitative easing, which are designed to bring down the value of the U.S. dollar and create inflation. That is the truth, despite promises from Treasury Secretary Geithner that he really means it this time when he says the U.S. has a strong dollar policy--the irony being, that he says this while concurrently begging the Chinese to allow the dollar to fall vs. the Renminbi. But their hopes placed in a lower dollar are woefully misguided and all that is being accomplished is to put into place the same conditions that brought the global financial system to its knees.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
What Strong U.S. Dollar Policy? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
"I believe deeply that it's very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar," U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner recently told reporters. Indeed, it seems to be a pre-requisite to apply for the position of U.S. Treasury Secretary to be able to utter these words. In the meantime, the greenback seems to be falling further and further; the 'strong dollar commitment' appears to have become a farce. Just what, then, would be a strong dollar policy?
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
U.S. Dollar Meltdown / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
I had the pleasure of reading a final finished copy of The Dollar Meltdown by Charles Goyette this past week.
Congressman Ron Paul offers an opinion on the front cover to which I certainly concur: "Goyette does a great job explaining why America faces a looming financial crisis and outlines commonsense strategies for individuals to protect themselves and their families. This book truly is a must read."
Friday, November 06, 2009
The Hated U.S. Dollar Might Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
Few essays I’ve ever written have drawn as much ire as the ones in which I propose that the US Dollar might rally. The US Dollar is indeed hated, so hated that people will hate you just for considering that it might rally.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Who Cares About the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Who cares about the dollar? It turns out quite a few do, except for those who could put it on a course to long-term recovery. First of all, you should care, as the purchasing power of your dollar savings is at risk when the dollar plunges versus other currencies. Let’s examine a couple of groups, what they have at stake and how influential they may be.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
U.S. Dollar Drifts Ahead of U.S. Unemployment Rate / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
When the U.S. Dollar Rallies, the Stock Market Will Crash / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
Interest rates. The Fed does not need slinky women in plunging necklines to peddle money. All it needs is low interest rates. When rates are pushed lower than the rate of inflation, the Fed provides a subsidy for borrowing. This is not as hard to grasp as it sounds. If I offered to give you $1.00 for very 90 cents you gave me in return, you would buy as many dollars from me as you could.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Dethroning of the U.S. Dollar Will Happen Sooner Than You Think / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: By now virtually every investor has heard the argument that the U.S. dollar is slated to lose its status as the global reserve currency. And that’s good – as far as it goes.
What’s bad is that many of these investors have yet to latch onto the fact that this could happen much sooner than many people realize and in a manner that will catch most by surprise.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Upside Alert / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Marty_Chenard
The Dollar could fool everyone ...
Just as Foreign countries are diversifying out of the Dollar ... just as the Dollar's carry trade is being overdone, the Dollar is poised to make an upside run.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 02, 2009
U.S. Dollar Meltdown / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LewRockwell
Doug French writes: The current investment climate is more perilous than ever. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to grow stuffed with the dubious paper purchased from the too-big-to-fail banks that are now wards of the state. The music stopped and there were no chairs, but the Fed and the Treasury snapped their fingers and trillions of dollars later the chairs appeared, the band played on and the banks live on. The taxpayers are now the not-so-proud owners of AIG, General Motors, Fannie and Freddie and dozens of banks. Where did the money come from? Out of thin air.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 02, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar About To Crush Stocks? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
Long-time readers know that I’ve begun to develop a love/hate relationship with the US Dollar. On one hand I believe the US currency is horribly flawed given our unserviceable debt load and the Fed’s profligate spending.
Monday, November 02, 2009
Do You Really Want To Short The U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andrew_Abraham
Lets face it…everyone seems to hate the US Dollar…Seems every Forex trader wants to be short the US dollar. So many think the US dollar will crash ( maybe it will..who knows).. but what I do know as a commodity trader..when too many traders are on the other side of the boat… something happens. My short on the US dollar was recently taken out.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 01, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Scenario Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most recent price action has seen the U.S. Dollar manage to hold onto USD 75 support that has propelled the dollar back through 76, however the trend over the past 2 months has been weak. The last update of the US Dollar bull market scenario of mid August 2009 called for a rally that targets USD 90 by the end of this year as long as 75 holds, as indicated by the original chart below :
Friday, October 30, 2009
U.S. Dollar the Coca-Cola of Monetary Brands says James Grant / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyWealth
Chris Mayer writes: The U.S. dollar is a sort of monetary brand.
And like any other brand, it can fall out of favor. Even iconic brands can rapidly lose their "must-have" cachet. Sometimes, a brand can disappear entirely, as did Pan American Airways or "Members Only" jackets. But there is always something else waiting to take its place. So it is with the U.S. dollar, a brand making lows in the financial markets.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Future and a World Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Thomas_R_Eddlem
Some very big questions
With the USD fluttering around 76 on the US Dollar currency basket index, the USDX it’s a good time to pontificate on its near term future, and longer term future. Gold’s big rally since 2002 begs a lot of major questions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Will the U.S. Dollar Still be Worlds Reserve Currency in Five Years Time? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
Interview with Menzie Chinn
Mike Whitney: What is the present composition of reserve holdings in central banks--and has there been a substantial falloff in US dollar reserves in recent years? (Are central banks ditching the dollar?)
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Elliott Wave Analysis Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Alistair_Gilbert
One of the wonderful things about watching and trading currencies is the frequency with which they comply to Fibonacci retracements. Part of the reason is that the foreign exchange market is the most liquid and the most widely traded on a global basis, so Elliott Wave analysis, which is based on mass crowd psychology, works best.
Monday, October 26, 2009
The War on the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Last week, I showed you the most shocking numbers I’ve seen in my lifetime:
Up until the day Lehman Brothers collapsed in September of last year, it took the Fed 5,012 days — 13 years and 8 months — to double the cash currency and reserves in the coffers of U.S. banks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 26, 2009
The War Over the U.S. Dollar Versus Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Clif_Droke
A fierce war of words has erupted in recent weeks between the two major camps in monetary circles. The first camp – the gold bulls/dollar bears – have been loudly voicing their twin belief that the gold price is poised to skyrocket while the dollar price is perched for a collapse. The other side – the gold bears/dollar bulls – are making the counter claim the gold price is setting up for a crash.
Monday, October 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Alert, Revenge of the Greenback? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Clive_Maund
The dollar is at a crossroads and there are two probable scenarios. One is a final plunge following the recent grinding decline to an intermediate low that is followed by an intermediate reversal. The other is that it suddenly breaks out upside from the severe downtrend it has been stuck in since early March and rallies strongly, strongly because it is likely to be juiced by a sudden wave of panic short-covering.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Please Mr. Geithner, Don't Pass the Buck on the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
It seems nobody in this country wants to take responsibility for the secular decline in the value of the U.S. dollar. When Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is asked about the currency's decline, he refers the query to the Treasury Department. When the president is asked about the dollar, he often gives the tired old platitude that the U.S. has a strong dollar policy, but his vacuous words seem more like perfunctory utterances than a bona fide dollar-boosting strategy.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
U.S. Dollar Collapse Update, Obama Demanding Payment in Euros! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
The "dollar debate" on the Internet has been ferocious and emotionally-charged, but sadly lacking in logic. To oppose the "dollar will crash" theorists is like arguing a woman's right to choose with the fist-waving throng assembled outside an abortion clinic. The results are equally disappointing. To say that "minds are already made up and the issue is settled", is an understatement. For many, the dollar's transition from the world's reserve currency to a Wiemar era Deutschemark is not a question "if" but only of "when". One reader summed up the distrust that's felt for anyone who dares to challenge the prevailing dogma like this:
Friday, October 23, 2009
King Dollar Forced to Abdicate / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
For the most part, the value of the dollar is given cursory attention by the financial media. Typically, its movements are assigned an importance on par with much less determinative metrics such as natural gas futures and construction permits. It's only when major milestones are reached that anyone really takes notice of the dollar. We are living through one of those times.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
U.S. Dollar Crash is Not Going to Happen / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
The dollar is not going to crash. In fact, many economists believe that the dollar will rally when the Fed ends its quantitative easing program (QE) sometime in early 2010. The Fed is on track to buy nearly $2 trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities, US Treasuries and agency debt. In other words, the Fed is printing money and pumping it into the housing market to keep the market from collapsing. This keeps interest rates low, but it also weakens the dollar. When the program ends, long-term interest rates will rise and the dollar will strengthen.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
U.S. Dollar Attacked by Central Bank Lilliputians Profting From the Carry Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US Federal Reserve continues to talk about their urgent Exit Strategy. My theory is they will be doing mostly talking and almost no doing. The nations that talk the least will be hiking interest rates the most, like Australia. The United States might be dead last in hiking interest rates. The credibility of the USFed will in the process continue to be harmed much more than already, which is rock bottom. The Dollar Carry Trade and the lost Petro-Dollar advantage will work to destroy the USDollar as the global reserve currency. The USFed will have to resort to unusual means to keep the world ‘interested’ and ‘involved’ in the USDollar at all. When they lose interest and involvement, the US$ will descend into the Third World. The USDollar will then be forced to find its true value, based on its own merit.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
The U.S. Dollar Will Not Crash / Politics / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
The dollar is not going to crash. There may be grumblings in foreign capitals and "secret meetings" between finance ministers but, for now, the dollar appears to be safe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Russia and Iran Officially Talking about Dumping the U.S. Dollar For Crude Oil and Gas Trade / Politics / US Dollar
By: Washingtons_Blog
After the Independent reported that Middle Eastern oil producers, plus China, Japan and France have all agreed to start trading oil using a basket of currencies - instead of the dollar - starting in 9 years, spokesmen for those governments denied it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Zero Discount Value of Gold and Dethroning the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
A truly major change in the global monetary system is beginning to materialize. The dollar is starting to be dethroned. Foreign governments and central banks are going to do the dethroning.
I have no prediction as to how slowly or quickly this process will take. The major dethroners, the Chinese, are on record as favoring a slow process. The transition is already occurring, however. Now that attitudes have shifted among the dethroners, they are likely to keep at it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
On the U.S. Dollar, Europe Sings a Classic Meatloaf Hit, Two Out of Three Ain't Bad / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Seriously, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet cannot possibly be serious when he says Europe Takes U.S. Strong-Dollar Policy Seriously.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Saving the U.S. Dollar and Bearish Gold Volume / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ronald_Rosen
It has been said that not even the U. S. Marine Corps can save the dollar. However, the way things appear, and according to the Delta Long Term turning points, the Marines may succeed in a delaying action for about twelve months. Desperate times require desperate means. The U. S. Dollar, starting about now, may actually rally right up to the mid term elections in November 2010. Perhaps we should include American politics as one of our market timing tools.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Orderly U.S. Dollar Depreciation Is Better Than Protectionism / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Lloyds_TSB
For all of the furore about the dollar’s slide, it is easy to lose sight of the underlying forces at play. However, we should not be complacent, as these forces can still have destructive effects on global growth prospects. Global imbalances, represented broadly in the growing US current account deficit and rising surpluses in many other parts of the world, were one of the prime - for some, the only - reasons for the global crisis that is still unwinding.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Death of the U.S. Dollar, Again? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
The following article is based on analysis from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. For more insights from Robert Prechter, download the 75-page eBook Independent Investor eBook. It’s a compilation of some of the New York Times bestselling author’s writings that challenge conventional financial market assumptions. Visit Elliott Wave International to download the eBook, free.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
U.S. Dollar Real Value Crash to 18cents / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Clark
By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report -“A dollar is worth only 70¢ now,” my Dad jabbered as we worked in the backyard. “And they say it’ll only be worth 50¢ in a few years.”
Thursday, October 15, 2009
End of U.S. Dollar Global Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The heralded end to the Petro-Dollar defacto standard completes the loop, the vicious cycle that will work to destroy the USDollar. In a sense, the US$ had to face an end, its sunset guaranteed when Nixon defaulted on its redemption value. The United States served as custodian for the global reserve currency. Naturally, the most damage will be to the US as a consequence of its twilight, especially after the recent era of fraud & counterfeit. Few look back to that date in 1971 as prophetic for declaring the USDollar’s days as limited and finite.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
U.S. Dollar Develepments, The Most Critical Financial Developments of Your Lifetime… / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Larry_Edelson
Make no mistake about it. The developments over the last three weeks affecting the U.S. dollar — which continues to sink in value — are the most critical financial developments of your lifetime.
The U.S. dollar has now entered the final days of its reign as the world’s reserve currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
U.S. Dollar Loses Reserve Status to Yen and Euro, NOT / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mac_Slavo
The New York Post is reporting that the Dollar loses reserve status to yen & euro.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Abandoning the USS Dollar, As Gold Shines Again / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jennifer_Barry
Robert Fisk's article in The Independent on October 6, “The Demise of the Dollar,” has created many shock waves in the currency markets. Fisk reported that major Arab nations are secretly planning to dump the current petrodollar scheme in favor of pricing oil in a basket of currencies. Included in this basket will be the yen, yuan, euro, a new, pan-Arab currency, and gold bullion. Co-conspirators include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Brazil, China, France, and the formerly compliant Japanese. This validated my July prediction that the Persian Gulf states will eventually accept yuan in exchange for oil.
Friday, October 09, 2009
Geitner, Summers, AND Bernanke Lobbying for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
All I can say is that when you have Geitner, Summers, AND Bernanke all chiming in with comments about the need for a strong dollar, smart money listens – and dumb money had better be prepared for some wicked volatility (against their short position). In the extremely interventionist world in which we find ourselves, my sense is that you really need to reevaluate a short dollar position when the three highest US financial market officials are telling you that they don’t like your attitude.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 09, 2009
Death of the U.S. Dollar, Again: Before You Mourn, See This Chart / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
The following article is based on analysis from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. For more insights from Robert Prechter, download the 75-page eBook Independent Investor eBook. It’s a compilation of some of the New York Times bestselling author’s writings that challenge conventional financial market assumptions. Visit Elliott Wave International to download the eBook, free.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
Gerald Celente, U.S. Dollar’s Demise Will Be Felt Worldwide / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
If the dollar collapses, it would spell economic disaster not just for the United States, but for the world, says Gerald Celente, director of the Trade Research Institute.
“It is more than just the demise of the dollar – this is going to be felt worldwide. There’s a major financial crisis ahead. The United States, the world’s superpower, is failing on its most basic level,” Celente told RT.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
Death of Petro-Dollar, Told You So / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The story hit like a thief in the night, even bearing Biblical proportions. The end of the exlusive sale of MidEast oil in USDollars, the rise of Russian and Chinese influence in the Persian Gulf, the rise in importance for the Intl Monetary Fund basket of currencies, the final clarion call for the free ride by Americans on the Dollar Credit Card, and hidden implications that the Saudis must shop for a new security lord in the region with broad military might, these are revolutionary steps with profound geopolitical implications.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
The New Currency Cabal Targets U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
On October 6th, The Independent newspaper of London set off shock-waves around the world with a report that secret meetings were held between the OPEC states, China, Russia, and others, in which the participants charted a course toward a new world reserve currency. Not surprisingly, the U.S. dollar nosedived on the news. The rout was only stemmed by Saudi and Chinese officials publicly denying the story.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Will the U.S. Dollar Be Hit By Arab Oil Shock? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: F_William_Engdahl
Arab oil producing nations and the some world’s largest oil consumers including China and Japan are reliably reported to be secretly planning a long-term exit from pricing their oil trade in dollars. If true, it would spell the death knell for the dollar as world reserve currency and for the USA as global economic power.
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Ditching the U.S. Dollar, Video Interview With Robert Fisk / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Gulf states have held secret talks with Russia, China, Japan and France to replace the US dollar with a basket of currencies in the trade of oil, the UK's Independent newspaper says.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
U.S. Dollar Collapse Hysteria / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
Robert Fisk lit the fuse with his hyperventilating narrative which appeared in Tuesday's UK Independent titled, "The Demise of the Dollar". The article went viral overnight spreading to every musty corner of the Internet and sending gold skyrocketing to $1,026 per oz. Now every doomsday website in cyber-world has headlined Fisk's "shocker" and the blogs are clogged with the frenzied commentary of bunker-dwelling survivalists and goldbugs who're certain that the world as we know it is about to end.
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Ridiculous Hype Over Secret Arab Crude Oil Currency Meetings / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Once again everyone is hyperventilating over "secret" moves to trade oil in currencies other than the US dollar. Please consider The demise of the dollar by Robert Fisk.
Monday, October 05, 2009
U.S. Dollar 50% Devaluation and IMF Part of Global Central Bank? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ellen_Brown
“A year ago,” said law professor Ross Buckley on Australia’s ABC News on September 22, “nobody wanted to know the International Monetary Fund. Now it’s the organiser for the international stimulus package which has been sold as a stimulus package for poor countries.”
Monday, October 05, 2009
U.S. Dollar Doom or Boom?, How to Trade the Dollar Through the Stock Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Oakshire_Financial
Everywhere you turn, you hear pundits screaming that the U.S. dollar is ready to collapse and will be suitable only for confetti, wallpaper, and bird cage liner before you know it.
"Buy gold now before it's too late!" is heard from every goldbug and commodity investor on the planet.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 03, 2009
Stock Market Reversal Bodes Well for U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bryan_Rich
The G-7 meets this weekend in Istanbul. So what’s on the minds of these leaders of the top industrialized countries of the world?
They’re all worried about currencies. Specifically, how currencies will impact their own recoveries and the recovery of the global economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Helping the Fed Trash the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bill_Bonner
Across the river is the great "City" of London...where finance is the #1 industry...
...where earnest men and women toil long hours in glass towers. What are they doing?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
U.S. Dollar the One Investment That Might Be About to Bottom / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
As I’ve noted several times on these pages, the US stock market and US dollar are trading at a near perfect inverse correlation. With stocks extremely overbought and reaching a critical point of potential resistance, any bounce in the dollar could kick off a rapid collapse in the US stock markets.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Bernanke’s Grand Strategy to Let the U.S. Dollar Fall / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Larry_Edelson
By now it should be abundantly clear to you that my warnings are coming to pass. Gold is acting firm, having made a new 12-month high above $1,000 an ounce, and within a whisker of a new record high.
And while it might not fully blast off yet, in time, it will — to well over $2,000 an ounce … then even higher to $3,000 … and ultimately, probably by the middle of the next decade, even to $5,000.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Crashes Against Yen! Time to Act! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Martin here with an urgent update on the dramatic events that took place late last week and what they could ultimately mean for you …
Just when the worldwide onslaught against the U.S. dollar seemed to be temporarily subsiding, a new round of attacks hit Friday — this time from Japan.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 25, 2009
U.S. Dollar Forecast, Major Low in Q4 of 2011 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
The dollar will hit a major low in Q4 of 2011. Watch this short video and see how I came up with this bold forecast.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
U.S. Dollar Up While Crude Oil Slips / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Ok... which is the chicken, and which is the egg? To find a starting point, let's look at the key timeframe during the major market turns that occurred duing Feb. and March 2009. Crude Oil prices hit a low (with equity prices) at $44.01, while at the same time risk averse investors finally bought enough dollars (from Dec, 2008) in their acute flight to safety. Since then, equity and oil prices have climbed sharply, while the daily Dollar index (DXY) gave up all of its panic flight to safety gains in what looks like a panic back into riskier assets-- perhaps until recently. In the case of oil and the US Oil Fund ETF (USO), prices actually peaked in June, at which time they went into a contracting coil pattern that appears to have ended yesterday with a resolution to the dowside.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
New Deadly U.S. Dollar Carry Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A powerful hidden engine existed for close to 20 years called the Yen Carry Trade. The engine produced tainted trillion$ for its priviliged participants, whose access to cheap money was assured and whose control of government policy was tight. The engine served two important purposes. It kept the Japanese Yen currency exchange rate low, sufficient for maintaining the export juggernaut that sent products around global supply routes with names like Toyota, Honda, Komatsu, Mitsubishi, Nikon, Toshiba, and Fuji for a string of years. It also supplied a torrent of funds to feed both the Japanese and Western (think US, UK, Europe) financial markets its most important channel in existence.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Inflation Pressures Rising Again / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
Several months ago I began to lay out an asset allocation road map. In a nutshell, the US Dollar remains the key asset to follow, and as long as the Dollar remains in a downtrend, then commodities should outperform equities with Treasuries bringing up the rear. In those articles, I never really stated why I like commodities over equities.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 19, 2009
U.S. Dollar Imminent Upside Reversal? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Sy_Harding
The U.S. dollar fell to a 12-month low against most major currencies on Thursday, with by far the majority of currency traders believing it will continue its freefall. And on the fundamentals, the dollar doesn’t seem to have much going for it to reverse the trend.
Friday, September 18, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index, The Trend Is Your Friend / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
In identifying the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY) as the key asset class to watch, I relied upon two strategies for guidance to make the call on June 19, 2009 that that this was a "Very Dangerous Time For The Dollar Index". So far, things are working out as expected.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 18, 2009
Easy-Money Fed Fueling U.S. Dollar “Carry Trades” / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Mike_Larson
A fascinating thing just occurred in the global interest rate market: For the first time since 1993, it became cheaper to borrow dollars than Japanese yen! The three-month dollar-based London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, slumped to 0.292 percent, compared with the yen-based LIBOR rate of 0.352 percent.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Buy the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Whatever happened to the Yen carry trade?
Japanese overnight interest rates are still lower that the U.S. (10 basis points versus 25 basis points). However, the three month Libor rates show that it has been cheaper to borrow dollars rather than yen. In addition, the yen has been appreciating against the dollar since 2002. So those having to buy back yen (to unwind a carry trade) have had the extra burden of currency appreciation working against them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
US Dollar USD Index Important September Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
My wife and I just got back from cruising the Maine coastline and we were blessed with great weather and calm seas. When I got back to my summer home and had access once again to the internet, I immediately started looking through the MarketClub charts. It was then that I realized that it has been sometime since I last did a video on the Dollar Index.
Monday, September 14, 2009
U.S. Dollar Entering Free Fall Crash Territory / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Larry_Edelson
Martin’s off this week. So I’m writing you today from Asia with a passionate plea to our country — to its citizens and especially to our leaders in Washington.
We are now the laughing stock of Asia. Our dollars are no longer respected; our ambitions, no longer mimicked.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 11, 2009
U.N.’s Anti-Dollar Talk a Problem of Our Own Making / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rep_Ed_Royce
A new report from an organization called the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) calls for the U.S. dollar to be ditched and replaced with a new global reserve currency. Why is it that the U.N. always concludes that central is better? This discussion, of course, has been prodded by our country's financial crisis and drunken sailor-like spending.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
USD Bearish Clamour, The Dollar Won't Go Quietly / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
As gold tries to break and hold $1000 it brings up the larger question of how long the USD has to last. At the very least, after the markets digest the debate over deflation which is USD bullish, the question becomes: how long can the USD hold together before it falls in value drastically.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
U.S. Dollar on the Move / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The PowerShares DB Bull US Dollar Fund ETF (NYSE: UUP) not only is oversold, but also appears to be the beneficiary of flight-to-safety money flows that is reminiscent of last year's stock market plunge. Concurrent with equity market weakness, the dollar has steadily climbed this morning, which has a familiar ring to it from last year’s stock market debacle, which attracted investors into the “safety” of the U.S. currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
The U.S. Dollars 2009 Slide, Banana Ben Strikes Again / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Just when you thought it was safe to hold dollars, even for just a little while, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke once again climbed aboard his helicopter and spread some more confetti (US dollars) across the sky.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 31, 2009
September Crucial Month for U.S. Dollar, Fall or Rise? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EliteGlobal
September 2009 is a crucial period for US dollar because technically it formed a triangular pattern and its breakout will determine the direction of US dollar movement. Most of investors and researchers predicted that the US dollar will depreciate on longer run against Euro but there is possible for either side breakout which is shown below.
Monday, August 31, 2009
U.S. Dollar Crash Count Down Madness / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
It never ceases to amaze me what hype people will believe. The latest is a series of posts by Jim Sinclair who on August 14, started a countdown to dollar oblivion.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
The Power of the U.S. Fed, Deflation and U.S. Dollar Devaluation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adam_Brochert
The non-federal, private federal reserve corporation has a no-bid contract to print money out of thin air and charge U.S. citizens money (interest) for this enormous privilege. Their so-called powers are legion and they are the cause of much distortion and inequality in our economy, to be sure.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Global Economic Recovery Good or Bad for the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: If you’ve followed my commentary on currencies here in Money and Markets, you are well aware of the risk dynamic that has been driving currencies and other financial markets since the middle of last year.
In this crisis environment, market participants have been keenly focused on risk. And the dollar has served as the primary safe haven vehicle for global capital.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
The U.S. Dollar is Dying / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LewRockwell
Richard Daughty writes: The Economist magazine had the Buttonwood blog titled “Law of Easy Money,” which immediately gets your hopes up that there is such a thing as “easy money,” which actually exists (just ask Connecticut’s Senator Chris Dodd!), but unfortunately not for guys like you and me who don’t have the political power and grease to extort money and skim taxpayers, which is gratuitously rude and scandalous, I agree, but which only shows the depth of my contempt for the huge, huge, cancerously huge, ridiculously and dangerously incompetent, ignorant and stupid system of governments in America, as exemplified by the despicable Congress and the even more despicable Senator Dodd.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Japanese Yen Fractal Path for the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adam_Brochert
Though I keep hearing how we're different than Japan and their lost two decades of deflation (or as close to it as we seem to get in a fiat world), we are making the same foolish mistakes: protecting the financial/banking keiretsu that caused the current mess, burying the bad debt under a cloak of secrecy, and engaging in a massive quantitative easing campaign to "stimulate" the economy.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
U.S. Dollar Key to Financial Market Trends / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter August 16th, 2009 Issue #64 Vol. 3Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar Unusual Behaviour Despite Continuing Risk Taking Environment / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: Last week the U.S. reported better-than-expected employment data. And the markets liked it. Stocks rallied. Yields advanced. And the dollar actually moved higher.
A move higher in the dollar on good U.S. economic data might make perfect sense in most environments. But in this crisis environment, it’s unusual …
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 15, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Update 5 / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter August 14th, 2009 Issue #63 Vol. 3Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 14, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Trend Forecast 2009 Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis seeks to update the existing U.S. dollar analysis of January 2009 by evaluating whether or not the U.S. Dollar bull market remains intact and to project a trend for the USD into year end. The sideways trend of the USD for the past 6 months in the wake of the "Quantitative Easing" headlines that has repeatedly brought the Dollar collapse proponents back out of hibernation on each down leg has shown little deviation from the road map of 20th Jan 09 as illustrated by the below original price chart.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
U.S. Dollar Pressure (Countdown) Toward Breakdown / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Paradigm Shift continues to displace the power centers and introduce new ones. Those bright souls who ignore the shift will be well prepared for systems that soon do not stand. The Americans are the last to know, oblivious to the global shift in progress. They continue to seek a return to normalcy, when old conditions are as gone as a baby’s innocence during teen years. The crux of the matter is that the United States is no longer in control of its fate. Meetings with creditor nation leaders result in new orders given, and new policy directives enacted.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
The U.S. Dollar Comes to the Rescue of Consumers / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The almighty dollar has come to the rescue and just in the nick of time, as our hero – the consumer – was nearly out of cash and unable to spend to keep the giant economy moving. So the government waved their magic wand and poof a few billion dollars were created and tossed to those wanting to be ecology minded, who then traded in their big ugly vehicle for a nice new, more efficient one. Voila, not only do we have economic growth, but too the specter of employment to create these cars and all the other items the consumer will want now that the can spend again.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Back to the Future for the US Dollar, Addendum- The Japanese Yen / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_BullBear
This is an addendum to the recent BullBear Market Report:U.S. Dollar May Soon Confirm a Secular Bear Trap Trend Reversal
Yen Carry Trade
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 10, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index the Key to Financial Market Dynamics / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
Over the next couple of weeks, I will attempt to put together an asset class road map that should help navigate the weeks and months ahead. In a nutshell, I would have to state that I like commodities over long term Treasury yields and equities, and the key driver will be the falling US Dollar Index.
Sunday, August 09, 2009
U.S. Dollar May Soon Confirm a Secular Bear Trap Trend Reversal / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_BullBear
In the last BBMR we focused on the US Dollar and concluded that a major break of very long term support was imminent and that a substantial devaluation of the greenback vis-à-vis its major currency pairs and commodities was likely. It’s always healthy to revisit one’s conclusions in light of developments in the market. Recent action has caused me to reevaluate and question the bearish view on the USD and commodities as well. I think that there is a valid bullish case to be made for the Dollar as well as a bearish case for gold, silver, oil and other commodities. I will explore these views in this report.
Friday, August 07, 2009
US Dollar Index, Third and Final Bear Market Downleg? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
An earlier failed attempt to embark on a recovery phase, thwarted by a 23.6% resistance area, has seen the Dollar Index slipping lower. However, it could be that this is a final downleg…
Friday, August 07, 2009
U.S. Dollar Crash in September/ October 2009 Rumours / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
There have been disturbing stories/rumors going around that the USD is poised for a crash episode in the Fall. The stories are basically anecdotal. One suggests that US embassies have been told to gather a year’s local currency in their host country. That is one example.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
U.S. Dollar Stage #1 Breakdown, Lost Control & Economic Mythology / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A great question to ask is: what was the first important chapter written in nonsensical Economic Mythology? It gave powerful intellectual protection and coverage by economists, and resulted in widespread acceptance. The answer is clearly the break in the Bretton Woods Accord, when in 1971 Nixon broke the gold standard and permitted the USDollar to float on a cloud of arrogance and on a wave of liquidity that is best described as debt mixed with counterfeit. Little known then, but better known now, is the role of the USMilitary in propping up the value and acceptance of the USDollar.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
U.S. Dollar Crash Has Started as Pressure Mounts / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Frederic_Simons
The US Dollar has shown further weakness during the last days. The support at about 78 in the US Dollar index has been breached to the downside. Technically, this means that the downside target of about 67 has been activated, and that downside momentum should be building up during the next days.
Monday, August 03, 2009
US Dollar to Remain Dominant International Reserve Currency For Many Years / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Global_Research
Prof. Rodrigue Tremblay writes: "The empire of the dollar is crashing." Hugo Chavez, Venezuelan President
"The U.S. dollar is a worthless piece of paper." Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iranian President
[The U.S. dollar is] "losing its status as the world currency." Xu Jian, vice director, People's Bank of China,
Friday, July 31, 2009
U.S. Dollar Collapse Starting Next Monday ? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Frederic_Simons
The trading week finished with a further attack against the US Dollar, reversing a short-lived strenghening of the US Dollar that could be observed during the last two days.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
U.S. Govt Yuan Bond Threat to U.S. Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The tables are fast turning against the deeply indebted USGovt officials. USA Inc is in deep trouble. Its productive engines in both finance and industry are either wrecked or sputtering, even as its debt burden grows exponentially. Debt default litters the landscape. Next its sovereign bonds will be have to be sold to some extent outside the US$ Sphere, which will put at great risk its stock, namely the USDollar itself. Let’s call them USGovt Dragon Bonds.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
U.S. Dollar Became the World's Reserve Currency 65 Years Ago / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
The historic conference in Bretton Woods ended on July 22, 65 years ago. The members of the conference agreed to establish a system of payment based on the US dollar and established the dollar peg with gold. The conference also resulted with the establishment of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Abandoned U.S. Dollar and Paradigm Shift / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A paradigm shift is underway, unrecognized inside the US kettle. Its water level is falling and its temperature is rising, even as fewer foreign born cooks stir its contents. The US banking and political leaders errantly pursue a path toward a return to normalcy, when all pathways have been washed out by powerful storms that to do abate and will worsen. Several key developments point to a new global order taking shape, as the Chinese actively work to plant global seeds that result in the Yuan currency serving more of a role in global trade. They will eventually de-throne the USDollar from its primal perch. The USDollar will be used less in global trade. The US$-based assets are being diversified. These developments are gaining traction, power, and publicity.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
US Dollar Collapse Imminent / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Frederic_Simons
We don't like to make bold predictions. But this time, it is different (famous last words).
You might have seen that we at Crossroads FX tend to trade in a very systematic way, using signals of our proprietary trading system without asking too many questions. But you know, from time to time patterns emerge where you cannot resist.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 17, 2009
Fundamental Driver For the U.S. Dollar's Downfall? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
David A. Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff and Associates, writes a very nice (and free) almost daily commentary about the markets and economy. I am sure many of you read Mr. Rosenberg, but if you don't, you can sign up here.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Imminent Erosion of U.S. Dollar Seawall / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The globe is losing patience with leadership and management of the USGovt ship at sea. They simple refuse to offer a credible solution to the primary keynote crack in the hull, falling housing prices and cratered mortgages, each of which work their destructive magic to wreck the banks. The home loan modifications are a farce, a travesty not designed to modify but rather to frame a series of loan forbearances. The motive for not fixing the mortgage mess is mysterious to the masses, but not here. Jackass claims have been consistent, that effective loan modifications would alter the underlying mortgage bonds drastically.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
What's Going on With the US Dollar Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
While the US dollar was supposed to lose ground against its counter parties, the market has remained surprisingly stubborn and trapped in a sideways trading range.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
U.S. Dollar at Risk of Unraveling / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
The Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY) is trading significantly lower this morning, and it is at risk of closing the week below three pivot points as seen on the weekly chart in figure 1.
Monday, July 13, 2009
The U.S. Dollar Bear Market Trend into 2012 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Uncommon_Wisdom
Larry Edelson writes: No doubt you’ve heard about last week’s G-8 Meeting in L’Aquila, Italy. And no doubt you’re hearing a lot of sound bites from the G-8 and the media about the U.S. dollar being a very hot topic at the meeting.
To be sure, the dollar is the central topic on most leaders’ minds right now. After all …
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
How Long Can the U.S. Dollar Defy the Law of Gravity? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
In the midst of the longest and deepest, post World-War II recession, America’s financial position with the rest of the world has deteriorated sharply. Three decades of massive trade deficits have turned the United States from the world’s top lender to the world’s largest debtor, - and dependent upon the whims of the so-called emerging nations, laden with huge foreign currency reserves, to finance the bailout of Wall Street Oligarchs, and President Barack Obama’s social programs.
Monday, July 06, 2009
U.S. Dollar Stability Choppy and Temporary / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Sterling leads the list of currencies losing against the dollar and yen amid widespread expectations the Bank of England will exercise its quantitative easing expansion option by purchasing an additional 25 bln in assets without seeking govt approval. Concerted selling in emerging market bourses further elevates the risk-aversion lustre of USD and JPY.
Friday, June 26, 2009
U.S. Stocks, Dollar Decline on China Calls for World Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: GoldCore
The People’s Bank of China report is very significant news for the international monetary system and for the gold market. Their call for a new global reserve currency or super sovereign currency will likely lead to further pressure on the dollar. Despite gold having risen and then fallen in value today, the news is another bullish factor supporting higher gold prices in the medium term.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Contraction in Economy Slowing Creates Bullishness for U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: BrewerFX
The Fed ended much of the uncertainty in the Forex markets today when it announced that its key lending rate would stay between 0 - .25%, and there would be no additional expansion of its balance sheet through the purchases of government assets and mortgages.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Why “BRIC” Posturing Against the U.S. Dollar Just Doesn’t Add Up / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The dollar has been publicly attacked on many fronts over the past three months. And endless accusations have been made that the U.S. is purposely trying to devalue the dollar to lessen its growing debt burden.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Very Dangerous Time For Dollar Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
I don't want to get into the prediction game or even be the first one to say, "I told you so", but I believe the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY) has a very high likelihood of embarking on a major down swing in the coming weeks.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Politicians to the World: “Forget All Those Trillions, the Dollar’s Doing GREAT!” / Politics / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
As a general rule of thumb, anytime a politician (especially a finance minister or central banker) comes forward to assure investors that his country’s currency is sound, you better believe the currency is in BIG trouble.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Russian President Medvedev suggests the dollar is on its way out; Russian Finance minister Kudrin says there is no substitute for the dollar. The Chinese see a need to diversify out of the dollar; the Japanese say their trust in the dollar is unshakable. Let’s look at this puzzle and make some sense of it.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
How long Can the U.S. Dollar Last as the World’s Reserve Currency? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes: The big question is how long can the dollar last as the world’s reserve currency? Needless to say, that is not an easy question to answer. We recently called the top on the dollar at 89.50 on the USDX. The USDX is six currencies versus the dollar on a weighted basis. More than a year ago the dollar hit a low on the USDX at 71.18. A phenomenal rally ensued from that level expedited by de-leveraging and the closing out positions within the carry trade. A good example of the carry trade was when a bank in NYC borrowed yen. At ½% interest, sold the yen for dollars and bought dollar denominated securities.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
What's the Relationship Between the U.S. Dollar and Commodities? / Commodities / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The dollar can’t manage to find its way out of the limelight these days. There’s speculation about its demise and the loss of its world reserve currency status. It’s even blamed for higher gas prices.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
US Dollar Index Embarking on Voyage of Recovery… / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
…at the least over the shorter term. Last week the US Dollar Index started to rebound from technical support, aided by an interesting ‘Fibonacci’ projection which we detail below. Our bullish view here underpins our thinking across a range of markets that we cover in the FX Trading Guide, where we have adopted some early, somewhat aggressive reverse stances.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Falling Stock Markets Still Key for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The intermarket relationship underpinning the US currency and global equities remains largely unhinged, with falling equities persisting as the longe saviour for the corroding US dollar. And so once again the falling US dollar got a fresh respite from a falling stock market. Earlier in the day, the dollar seemed to succumb to one of those typical selling waves after better than expected UK housing numbers, improving confidence figures in Australia and higher than expected Norwegian inflation -- all of which bolstered the rally of these currencies against the greenback. Such figures reduce the need for quantitative easing in these economies, which only add to a widening in their yield differential ahead of the US currency.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
The Plummeting U.S. Dollar Economic Prosperity Plan / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
It is becoming painfully obvious that the Fed, Treasury, and Administration's disastrous recovery plan hinges on the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Their specious strategy stems from the belief that a falling currency can re-ignite exports and spark a recovery in manufacturing while putting a floor in U.S. asset prices. But just as the President's initials indicate, the plan stinks of B.O.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 04, 2009
Bernanke's Math - Does It Add Up? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
The current account deficit is down as we are less reliant on foreigners to finance our deficits; the government's deficit is increasingly covered by the domestic private sector as private sector borrowing is down. -- These were the approximate words of Fed Chairman Bernanke in testimony to the House Budget Committe. This statement is so troublesome, let's examine it a step at the time.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Speculative Bets Against the U.S. Dollar Highest Since July 15 2008 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Anti-dollar sentiment is again running rampant. Please consider Bets against dollar highest since start of economic crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...Speculative bets against the dollar have risen to their highest level since the onset of the financial crisis.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
How Far Can the U.S. Dollar Fall? / Commodities / US Dollar
By: INO
I was quite amazed when I looked back to see how long it’s been since I’ve put together a Dollar Index (NYBOT_DX) video. I had to look back to September of 2008 to find the last series of videos I had done specifically for the Dollar Index, and it proved to be successful.
Monday, June 01, 2009
China Forced to Support U.S. Dollar to Defend $2 trillion Currency Reserves / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
China is uncomfortable about being the principal creditor of the United States. Asia’s largest nation became the hostage of the US economy in the 21st century. The reserves of the People’s Republic of China are based on dollar assets - $2 trillion. US Treasury Bonds make $700 billion of the amount. China is forced to continue crediting the budget deficit of the United States not to let these reserves go down in value.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 30, 2009
US Dollar Hegemony Over China and Russia / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes:
The Chinese and Russians are the laughing stock of the US and European Illuminists at the G-20 meetings concerning talk about a new world reserve currency to supplant the dollar. With China's gold reserves of about a thousand tons and Russia's five hundred tons, they are like penny ante poker players trying to get in on a thousand dollar ante game. They need five to ten thousand tons of gold reserves just to be an average player in "The Big Game," much less a leading and influential player. The rest of their foreign exchange reserves are denominated in fiat currencies, which are all practically worthless except for the euro and Swiss franc.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Drags Dollar Lower Under Weight of Bond Issuance / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Talk of Fed Exit Strategy is Premature. Yesterdays 23-basis point jump in 10-year yields to 3.74% may have been helped by mortgage backed securities traders hedging, but the upward trend remains clearly intact. With Fed increasingly behind the curve in catching up with US Treasurys relentless bond issues, 10 year yields have now retraced over 50% of their decline from their 5.32% high of June 2007 to their record low of 2.03% in December.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar, the Worst Investment of All Time? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
One investment, more than any other, has proven to be a terrible storehouse of value for well over 80 years.
While some disasters unfold rapidly (Enron, subprime mortgages, etc.), this investment’s decline has occurred in slow motion, losing an average of 3.6% a year. Indeed, you can hardly find a period in the last 89 years in which this investment actually MADE money.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Treasury Bond Market Crash Threatens U.S. Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD rose $6 early Thursday to record the best AM Gold Fix in London so far this week, hitting $949.75 an ounce as world stock markets fell and US government bonds bounced from their worst sell-off since January.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Roll Over Accelerates into Mid 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
In 2008, as the global bear market gather momentum, investors were drawn to the fundamentally weak U.S. dollar as a 'safe haven'. However, as volatility slowly erodes from the equity markets in 2009 and the appetite for risk in commodities and stocks gradually returns, the flight-to-safety mentality for the $USD is also evaporating. In its place is a return to a more rational fundamental review of the American currency.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated, Still the Worlds Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: Many investors are concerned about the future path of the dollar … and with good reason.
The Treasury is increasing the money supply in amounts never seen before or even imagined … all in an effort to avert a meltdown and stimulate a path to recovery. And as expected, there are no shortages of opinions about the trillions of dollars being created out of thin air …
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 22, 2009
U.S. Dollar’s Impact on Commodity Price Trends / Commodities / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
On any day that commodities prices move materially, the financial media is quick to ascribe their action to the US dollar. And this oft-discussed causal relationship is certainly logical. With commodities priced in dollars, a stronger dollar will buy more units of any given commodity while a weaker dollar buys less.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
U.S. Dollar Slashed Due to Fed Quantitative Easing / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Today's serious case of dollar-damage was once again made courtesy of the nations central bank. The Feds purchase of $7.7 bln in 7 and 10-year treasuries in the morning, followed by purchases of $3.08 bln in Agency securities in the afternoon accelerated the dollar decline and the resulting rally in commodities --as was the case on March 18 when the Fed first announced purchases of long term treasuries. Today's dollar sell-off stood out from previous declines by the fact that EURUSD knifed through the key resistance of $1.3740 (failed 4 times this year) to $1.3830, and even sterling finally managed to break above its 200-day moving average vs USD--something that all majors currencies had achieved in previous weeks surging to a 7-month high of $1.5794.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar Heading For a Mighty Crash? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
Each month, the US Treasury publishes its International Capital account, (TIC) which foreign currency traders and bond dealers use to gauge the flows of money from around the world, into and out-of the US-capital markets. The demand for a nation’s bonds and stocks, combined with international trade flows for goods and services, plus behind the scenes intervention by central banks, all act in concert to influence the foreign exchange market which handles $4-trillion per day.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar in Trouble? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: INO
How we analyze the Dollar Index - According to the dollar index (DX), which is a basket of currencies that track the dollar, it would appear as though the dollar is indeed going to be coming under more pressure. The dollar index is much like an index for stocks except in this case it is for currencies.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
China and Brazil Try to Flee From the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Pravda
Brazil's state visit to China has set the chins wagging. Will an agreement be struck to invoice their bilateral trade in their own currencies rather than the dollar? Brazilian President Lula had made some allusions to this last month around the G20 meeting.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 17, 2009
The Incredible Shrinking Global Economies Bullish for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: Germany is the world’s largest exporter. And in the broadest global recession on record, demand for its exports has come to a virtual standstill.
As a result, Germany, the core of the Eurozone, is shrinking at a record pace. And Germany isn’t alone. Many of the world’s largest economies have rested on the export model.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Fed Seeks U.S. Dollar Devaluation to Reflate the Economy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Commodities are rising, the dollar is falling and the trade deficit is growing. Everything bad is good again, thanks to the Feds.
All of the pernicious factors that brought us to the brink of financial Armageddon are now once again returning and are still—amazingly enough--being embraced as both normal and healthy for the long term viability of the U.S. economy. Factors such as a strengthening U.S. dollar, shrinking trade deficit, a surging savings rate and falling commodity prices were all being viewed as the bane of the U.S. economy. And now, unfortunately, what had been the budding re-emergence of economic sanity is being obliterated by a killing frost thanks to the Fed and the Administration.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Follow the Money… Out of the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Kieran Osborne writes: Recently, stock markets appear to have experienced an almost euphoric phase, seemingly shrugging off most negative news flow day after day. Whether or not you believe in the so-called “green shoots” of economic recovery, a significant economic rebound, or a continued decline in economic activity, one thing seems abundantly clear: investors have been becoming less risk averse. The most commonly followed “fear indicator”, the VIX index, has retracted (likewise, other commonly followed indicators such as the TED spread has tightened and OIS spreads have reverted to levels not seen since the Lehman Brothers collapse), three month T-bill yields have recently risen and equity markets around the world have rebounded from March lows.
Sunday, May 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The US Dollar Index has been experiencing weakness over the course of the past few days and is challenging present support levels, which if broken, could see a dip to 82-83. Analysis today will illustrate various trends in the USD and what to expect over the course of the next few weeks.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
U.S. Dollar Turned Back at Yen 100 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: LiveCharts
The dollar seemed on the fast track to cruise past 100 yen and beyond recently. During the six week long stock market rally, the dollar surge to a high point of 101 yen on April 6th. However, as the Dow has flattened and held above 8,000 the last couple weeks, the dollar’s momentum against its Japanese counterpart has waned.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar Setting up for a Decline Into End of Month / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD suffered a violent whipsaw today first rising to highs during early New York trade before reversing to make lows against some pairs and end mixed. Rising to highs against the GBP, low prints were hit early as stops and aggressive selling dropped the rate to a low print 0f 1.4395 before short-covering and aggressive buying lifted the pair back to the 1.4500 handle to hold around 1.4510/20 area most of the day.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Global Deflation and Currency Manipulation Boosts the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: This week there was plenty of data to digest from the financial markets and the overwhelming theme was — more of the same.
If you missed it, here’s a run-down …
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 17, 2009
Fed Using Currency Swaps to Boost the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
Currency swaps are of reciprocal currency agreements (swap facilities) between central banks. The officially purpose of such agreements are explicitly of short term and are intended to finance short-term capital flows believed to be seasonal or temporary in nature. Swap agreements are also misused to facilitate large interventions in foreign exchange markets, which is what is occurring with the dollar today.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
U.S. Dollar Doomed as Global Demand for Dollars Slows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Happy Tax Day! As you fork over money to the IRS, you might want to take a closer look at the U.S. dollar. It could very well be turning into a ticking time bomb inside your wallet.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Are the U.S. Dollar's Safehaven Days Numbered / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: It’s not hard to understand the relationship of the dollar with human emotions like greed and fear. And that relationship is rarely more visible than it is today …
When investors are willing to take on more risk, stocks, emerging market currencies and commodities all bounce. On the other hand, when fear is prevalent, the dollar soars, Treasuries take off, and gold starts sniffing towards $1,000 an ounce.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
U.S. Dollar Rally Lacks Conviction / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD held gains today as risk-aversion in equities prompted dollar-buying pushing the majors into key S/R at the start of the day. Although the Greenback is higher across the board today volumes were lighter and traders noted quality buying of the majors into the lows. Confirmed sovereign and semi-official names were seen buying EURO and GBP on the dips holding those pairs off their early New York lows. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Devaluation is Inevitable, Just Like 1934 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Vronsky writes: It is evident to all the US economic environment is an unmitigated disaster. In fact we seem to be hell bent for leather falling into another Great Depression (the recent Bear Market Rally in Wall Street notwithstanding). This begs the question: What can President Obama do to avert the excruciatingly sad events of the 1930s?
Here are the economic problems causing havoc today in the USA:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 02, 2009
The G20's Hidden Agenda of Devaluing the U.S. Dollar to Inflate Asset Values / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I'm buried monitoring the markets … scrutinizing them virtually 24/7 … checking every piece of news I can get my hands on.
I also have three Dollar Index charts on my trading screen: A monthly chart, a daily chart, and a 60-minute chart to check the short-term moves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
U.S. Dollar Supported by Risk Averse Global Capital Flows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Last week's big news: The Federal Reserve announced they'd “officially” take up quantitative easing to finance the massive stimulus spending.
The Fed's decision to buy long-term Treasuries, soak-up more mortgage debt and open up the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) for the sake of consumers and small business inspired optimism …
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 30, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Stabilizes in April and Sell off in May / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
Though the longer-term picture for the U.S. Dollar Index appears bleak, with a downside target of $0.80 to $0.81 by June, models suggest the short-term outlook indicates some upward pressure building in April. Resistance is set at $0.8670 during this expected advance. Monty Carlo simulation supports the models outlook with a 95% probability that the currency will trade outside of the $0.70 to $0.83 band over the next 100 days. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
U.S. Dollar Imminent Collapse.. Again? - Update 5 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The fall in the U.S. Dollar in the wake of the "Quantitative Easing" headlines has brought the Dollar collapse proponents back out of hibernation. However the actual dollar trend has shown little if any deviation from the road map of 20th Jan 09 as illustrated by the below original price chart which therefore at this point in time does not warrant an indepth update.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2009
Currency Market Mayhem Amdist Stocks Bear Market Short Squeeze Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Currency mayhem this week caused a rally in most commodities as the US dollar broke trend line support and headed lower in a sharp decline. Analysis today will clue into the expected trend of the US dollar over the coming weeks ahead. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 22, 2009
U.S. Dollar as the World’s Only Reserve Currency is illegal / Politics / US Dollar
By: Pravda
A new world currency must be created under the aegis of the United Nations Organization, Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev stated during his speech at the 21 st Congress of the Eurasian Association of Universities in Astana.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 19, 2009
U.S. Fed Buying Treasuries Triggering Massive Exodus Out of U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
Is everybody happy? The US Fed today announced that they will be buying US Debt in huge amounts starting today and the result was a massive exodus out of the USD. Equities responded positively although more will need to be seen if investors view the progress as net-positive for equities near-term. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Economic Reflation Investing – Which Currencies Benefit? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Reflation refers to policy makers' attempts to “reflate” the economy, to prop up what many would consider a broken system. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke made it very clear in his March 15 interview on 60 Minutes that he will attempt to stem the tide of market forces: Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 09, 2009
British Pound Plunged Through Support Levels Towards Fresh Dollar Lows / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD is higher this morning after a slow start on the defense in Asia, the majors making the best levels of the day ahead of European trade. The Greenback is making fresh highs against the majors in early New York as technical trade and cross spreaders pressure to the upside. Overnight equities markets were lower adding to the upside as well. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 05, 2009
US Dollar Shines in a Depression as China buys Metals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
“De-leveraging” and “Risk Aversion” are the buzzwords cited by many currency analysts, to explain the puzzling strength of the US-dollar, which has climbed by more than 20% since last July, despite the widely held view, that top Wall Street banks are insolvent and only surviving on artificial life support, and with the flow of credit badly constrained, the US economy is spiraling towards a “Great Depression.” Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
U.S Dollar Short-term Strength, Long-term Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
When President Obama took over the reins of government just six weeks ago, he stood at a historic crossroads. His decision on which route to take will make a profound impact on the future of the American economy and its currency. He could have persuaded a frightened Congress to initiate a structural change that would transform the U.S. economy from its dependence on debt-fueled personal consumption back to a path of productive growth. Instead, he took the easy route: attempting to delay the pain with stimulus and inflation, rewarding his benefactors without truly addressing our structural deficits. Disappointing for a man who campaigned on ‘hope' and ‘change.'Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bears: Be Very Careful / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The rest of the world cannot yet decouple from the United States' economy.
Excessive deleveraging of U.S. dollar-based credit is the sure sign that investors have come to understand this fact. They've pulled in extreme amounts of capital in search of a safe place to stash their cash. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 23, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bullish Outlook Throughout 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
US Dollar Index - The daily chart of the US Dollar Index is shown below, with the upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands riding the index, suggestive that further upside should be expected. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. Based upon the %K curling back above the %D in #1, expect upside strength to continue into the foreseeable future. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Still Bullish / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Guy_Lerner
My reluctance to embrace the rally in gold has been well documented . One of the reasons, I did not jump on the gold band wagon was the strength in the US Dollar Index. Since August, 2008, it has been my belief that the US Dollar was poised for a secular change in trend and that gold has only been in a range. Based upon this, it remains my belief that the US Dollar is a better place to invest. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 13, 2009
The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Hewitt
One of the chief mandates of the U.S. Federal Reserve is to manage the nation's monetary stock. This essay analyzes the historic growth of the American monetary stock (or aggregates) since 1960 and looks at some recent developments revealing a marked adjustment in policy. These changes are a direct response to the on-going worldwide financial crisis that escalated in September 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
How Gold Links U.S. Treasuries and the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
US Dollar & Treasuries. The emergence of last week's unsual direct relation between the dollar and gold provided a valuable signal to the validity of the rally in the precious metal. It could also be explained by the rise in bond yields (fall in prices). Last week witnessed a rise in bond yields that was accompanied by a not-so smooth strengthening in the value of the dollar. Despite the dollar's leap to 23-year highs vs GBP, the currency made more modest gains vs the euro while nearing 14-year lows against the yen. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Stalling as Commodities Bull Market Returns / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Donald_W_Dony
Many investors that I have spoken to have moved away from the powerful but volatile commodities market after the cliff-dive drop that occurred in the second half of 2008. Other investors are waiting on the sidelines for the global economic expansion to develop which will bring inventory levels down and prices up. Yet, the underpinnings for the next upward leg of natural resource prices is already in play and leading indicators are starting to break to the upside.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Not Over Despite Lousy Fundementals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Prices of assets and securities lie very much on expectations for the future. Indeed, when optimism is present, it's only natural to expect:
- Confidence in the market place …
- Long-lasting spending sprees …
- And rising prices for durable goods and services.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 23, 2009
US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update - 4 / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
January 21st , 2009 Issue #3 Vol. 3Prevailing bearishness continues against the U.S. Dollar amidst a near infinite reasons of why the Dollar is doomed. But as an active experienced trader, one thing you soon painfully learn is that the fundamentals don't count when it comes trend reversals, as by the time the reasons have become apparent the market has already moved by as much as 50% and even then there exists the continuing dilemma of the trend versus the fundamental views based on hard data. However as I have discussed several times with would be traders in that your trading the price not the indicator or data. The bottom line is that what the price says is that which only 'should' count.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update 4 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Prevailing bearishness continues against the U.S. Dollar amidst a near infinite reasons of why the Dollar is doomed. But as an active experienced trader, one thing you soon painfully learn is that the fundamentals don't count when it comes trend reversals, as by the time the reasons have become apparent the market has already moved by as much as 50% and even then there exists the continuing dilemma of the trend versus the fundamental views based on hard data. However as I have discussed several times with would be traders in that your trading the price not the indicator or data. The bottom line is that what the price says is that which only 'should' count.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 18, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bullish Despite Global Recession / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The U.S. has become the most significant consumer in the world when it comes to demanding finished goods and discretionary items. Now, however, U.S. consumers are holding on to their wallets a whole lot tighter. You can see that clearly in this week's announcement of December retail sales … Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Radioactive U.S. Dollar UDN ETF Protection / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Oxbury_Research
There is a rather interesting scientific experiment going on right now in the United States. The experiment involves the effect that intensive radiation has on the brains of rats. Who is conducting this experiment? Why Wall Street, of course!
With all of the highly leveraged, stupid bets blowing up in Wall Street's face, it has been the equivalent of a nuclear bomb going off right in the middle of Wall Street. Most people would use common sense and get as far away as possible from the nuclear blast.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Boosts the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Friday was a big day for the market. The mother of all economic data reports created its usual commotion. That is, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls were released … and the numbers gave analysts plenty to talk about.
The U.S. lost 524,000 jobs in December. And as bad as that looks, earlier rumors had the markets preparing for much larger losses. The unemployment rate, on the other hand, jumped more than had been expected — up to 7.2%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
U.S. Dollars Inevitable Demise, Doom and Gloom, Get it Straight! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Oxbury_Research
"There will, before long (my best guess is between two and five years from now) be a global dumping of US dollar assets, including US government assets. Old habits die hard. The US dollar and US Treasury bills and bonds are still viewed as a safe haven by many. But learning takes place." -Telegraph 1/6/09 Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
U.S. Government Panic Could Herald Dollar Crash / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
One of the few things more troubling for an economy than government intervention is government intervention driven by panic. Time and again, history has shown that when governments rush to engineer solutions to pressing problems, unintended difficulties arise. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2009
U.S. Dollar Strong Start to 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ForexPros
The USD is on the offense this morning for the most part as the first full day of post-holiday trading gets underway in New York. Overnight was a mixed bag for the Greenback as early weakness in index futures put a bit of downward pressure on the USD/JPY and mixed pressure on EURO and Cable; thin conditions were reported in Asia as a half-day holiday was seen in Japan. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 02, 2009
Ten Major Threats Facing the U.S. Dollar in 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
1) Foreign central banks selling US assets Most of the nations which have been financing the US's massive current account deficits in recent years have either begun to sell their dollar reserves last year or are planning on selling them this year in order to support their currencies. These nations generally fall into three categories:
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 27, 2008
The Deflation Driven U.S. Dollar Bull Market of 2009 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I'm often hearing how much everyone seems to be anxious to put a lid on 2008 and get started over — refreshed. I can understand that. This has been a very challenging year for many investors.
But, some hidden treasures have also appeared in the markets amongst the mess we've become accustomed to …
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Why the U.S. Trade Deficit is Worsening and Dollar Implications / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
Right up until the commodity bubble burst this summer, there was the ridiculous theory going around that the world was now "decoupled" and that European and emerging markets would somehow avoid being affected by the US slowdown. These decoupling theories disappeared as oil dropped like a rock, only to be replaced by an equally ridiculous idea: that the world's economic pain would be spread evenly. This is wrong. Although the entire world is going into a recession as a result of the credit crisis, some economies are better prepared than others to weather the storm. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 20, 2008
U.S. Dollar Buying Opportunity? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Traders have slashed the price of the U.S. dollar. And that's terrific news! Now you can get your hands on greenbacks far cheaper than you could only two weeks ago. If you are a regular reader of my Money and Markets columns , you know that my long-term theme is that the dollar will climb sharply through most, if not all, of 2009. And now's certainly not the time to deviate from those expectations. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
U.S. Dollar Plunges as Devaluation Policy Seeks to Export Deflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bernanke & Co. on Tuesday signaled to the financial markets that they were hell-bent on pursuing an “inflate or die” approach to rescuing the ailing US economy and fending off the forces of deflation. The Fed is now inflating at a level possibly not seen before by a developed nation since Weimar Germany. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Fed Policy to Drive U.S. Dollar Lower to Prevent Deflation / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Faced with the threat of deflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be trying to drive the dollar lower to spur inflation. As policy makers don't want home prices to deteriorate further, an alternative is to inflate the prices of all other goods and services: as a result, the relative prices of homes would be less expensive. Weakening the dollar is an effective policy tool to drive up inflation as the cost of import goes up. Just be careful: the Fed may be getting more than it is bargaining for. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar Inverse Relationship? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Richard_Shaw
Are oil and the US Dollar inverse to each other? No. At least not always.
There are numerous articles out about “Dollar Up & Oil Down”, or “Dollar Down & Oil Up”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
U.S. Dollar Crashes Through Support Treasury Bonds to Follow / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Clive_Maund
Over the past several days the dollar has gone into a severe decline, and this drop does not look like a reaction within an ongoing uptrend, as was the case in September, for as we can see on the 6-month chart it follows the development of a Head-and-Shoulders top area, a distribution pattern that took nearly 2 months to form. It looks like the dollar has broken down from an important reversal pattern. We had correctly identified the Head-and-Shoulders top back when the dollar index was high in the Right Shoulder of the pattern, when a Dollar Special update was posted on the site on 5th December, warning of a probable imminent dollar breakdown. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Zero Interest Rate Bound Fed Breaks U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The Fed's shift towards a range of 0-0.25% in its fed funds target zero intensifies the yield assault to the dollar, leaving little chance for traders but to extend speculative and directional offers in the currency. The decision prompts the biggest 2-day rallly in EURUSD (4.8%) following last week's 5.1% jump. The dollar is unlikely to immediately descend into an uncontrollable decline as the easing campaigns of overseas central bankers and secular market volatility has yet to recapture its peak. But the longer term prospects ahead appear particularly ominous for the world's reserve currency once global economic stability starts to buildup and the demand/supply schedule of commodities further moves towards the price. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 12, 2008
U.S. Dollar Set to Decline on Back of Bailouts Frenzy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The plethora of bank and corporate bailouts, stimulus plans and interest-rate cuts that the U.S. government has produced over the last three months can only lead to one outcome: The U.S. dollar has to decline.
During the crisis so far, the dollar in general, and U.S. Treasury bonds in particular, have been regarded as a “safe haven,” making the dollar strong and pushing long-term U.S. Treasury rates downward. In the New Year, however, this is likely to change – the weight of the added supply of dollars in circulation will be too great for the greenback to shrug off.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
U.S. Dollar in Retreat as Corporate Failure Risks Soar on U.S. Auto's Bailout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
It may be premature to call the recent currency developments a paradigm shift, but it is worth shedding light on these changes as the news from Capitol Hill overlap with thin trading volumes. The current weakness of the US dollar is not only taking part against higher yielding counterparts such as the commodity currencies (which was usually assign of improved risk appetite), but also against the Japanese yen. Since the intensification of the market and economic weakness, the greenback would gain versus most major currencies with the exception of the yen during curtailed appetite, while losing ground versus its higher yielding counterparts and weighing on the yen at times of improved risk appetite. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Thriving on Bearish Skeptics / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I was doing some research earlier in the week, and I came across a blog I'd never heard of written by a guy I'd never heard of on a topic that we've all most certainly heard of … the U.S. dollar.
It was the same old story that's been beaten into the ground:
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Deleveraging Pushes Up the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
In view of the economic crisis facing the American and global markets, the recent strength of the U.S. dollar has confounded analysts. After all, the global economic problems essentially emanate from the United States and one would assume that the collapse of our economy would drag our currency down. That has not, as yet, transpired. The explanation can be found in a financial concept known as deleveraging.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 21, 2008
U.S. Dollar Technical Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Russo
Casting aside fundamental arguments relative to the long-term viability of un-backed fiat currency, we turn our focus to a purely technical assessment of the past 8-years of price data for the US dollar index.
Technical Tools used in our assessment are the following:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 17, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bullish Worlds Reserve Currency Dynamics / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's times like these when I'm really glad that I haven't devoted myself to trading in the stock and commodities market. Sure there's money to be made, even on the downside.
However, the dynamics of the currency market are far more appealing to me … especially at a time like now when good companies and bad companies are tossed into the same rinse cycle and hung out to dry by fiscal and monetary policy decision-makers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
The US Dollar Has Got To Go! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is clear that the United States has relied on a continuous cycle of debt growth to fuel its economy. The engine of the US economy has been the US consumer, and consumer debt had to expand at a rate that far outpaced negligible consumer income growth in order for the US economy to continue to “grow.”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
How to Survive the Coming US Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Now that the US election is over, we get to think about the Future. And, no matter how you look at it, the entire world, the West particularly, is in for tough sledding financially.
First, we will continue to battle an emerging economic slowdown. Then, later, we will be battling world currency instability – we already have signs of this now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Toxic Emerging Economies Boost U.S. Dollar Safe-haven Demand / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: An advance report of third-quarter U.S. GDP showed a decline of 0.3%. That's awfully pathetic, right? But not quite as pathetic as the 0.5% that was anticipated …
Still, there's no denying that a GDP contraction of any amount is unappealing. And when it comes to many of the recent U.S. economic indicators, most everything's been unappealing … if not downright ugly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 31, 2008
Bankrupt United States Will Reverse Recent Dollar Trend / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
When inexplicable events perplexed our early forbears, village wise men concocted elaborate and colorful explanations to soothe the populace. Earthquakes, hailstorms, and solar eclipses were all ascribed to root causes that made sense to the villagers and increased the esteem of the story tellers. The recent, unexpected surge of the U.S. dollar has led many Wall Street witch doctors to conjure a series of logic-defying tales to give reason to what is surely the random scramble of a confused herd. Wall Street spun similar yarns during the dot.com and real estate bubbles as investors groped for reasons to justify sky high prices. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
U.S. Dollar Has Entered a Multi-year Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's a popular notion when the financial winds are blowing unfavorably:
Money is being printed uncontrollably … inflation is the only option … fiat currencies are doomed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Why Gold Price Rise Will Trigger U.S. Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
For the last few years, the dollar has been in a bear market due to the horrible fundamentals backing the currency (the huge debt mountain, unfunded liabilities in the tens of trillions, rampant money printing by the central bank, and the huge federal budget deficit). However, in the last three months the US dollar has diverged from its fundamentals and rallied due to investors fears about deflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Update / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
October 26th , 2008 Issue #35 Vol. 2The role of the U.S. Dollar as the worlds reserve currency kicked into gear this past week which accelerated the up trend of the US Dollar towards its initial forecast target of USD 90 as per the analysis of mid August 08 which was made against the overwhelming consensuses at the time that basically viewed an imminent collapse of n the US Dollar. Which despite the exceptionally strong rally to date that consensus more or less remains in tact today, where still the vast majority of views remain that the Dollar's rally as temporary in advance of a much greater and near imminent collapse.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 26, 2008
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The role of the U.S. Dollar as the worlds reserve currency kicked into gear this past week which accelerated the up trend of the US Dollar towards its initial forecast target of USD 90 as per the analysis of mid August 08 which was made against the overwhelming consensuses at the time that basically viewed an imminent collapse of n the US Dollar. Which despite the exceptionally strong rally to date that consensus more or less remains in tact today, where still the vast majority of views remain that the Dollar's rally as temporary in advance of a much greater and near imminent collapse.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 25, 2008
U.S. Dollar and the Flying Bankers / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joe_Gelet
The heart of the crisis is very simple: banks won't lend. Why they won't lend is irrelevant, the solution is so simple it seems too good to be true: force banks to lend. The modern economy functions on credit; exporters sell to foreign buyers using complex Letters of Credit packed with shipping insurance, small businesses depend on rotating credit lines to purchase inventory they sell to the consumer. Mostly working on small margins, these businesses depend heavily on credit to stay afloat; even a short disruption in their lending activities would literally bankrupt them. This has already started happening, and the banks are sitting on the sidelines. The simple, clear solution is to force banks to lend, by any means. Giving banks more money is not helping, they already have plenty of money, the problem is not that banks are undercapitalized it is that they will not lend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
Exploding Debt Dynamics: Argentia and the U.S. Dollar's Fate / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Justice_Litle
Whither the dollar and gold? To answer that long-awaited inquiry – which will take some time to cover in full – let's start by getting a handle on “exploding debt dynamics.” Cartoonish as it sounds, it's a real term that IMF economists use.
If, like me, the phrase gives you visions of Wile E. Coyote blowing himself up with a box of ACME brand dynamite, you aren't too far off.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
U.S. Dollar Currency Collapse Within 30 Days / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
It appears that there is a common refrain going around the investment community. It goes something like this:
"Gold should be doing better, and, since it isn't, I am not going to buy it"
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
The U.S. Dollar Death Dance / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US Dollar rally in the last several weeks has been remarkable. At closer examination, it highly resembles a spurt prior to death. Imagine an old man who just had a heart attack, lost feeling in certain body parts, his mind not working right, plenty of nonsense gibberish coming from his mouth, and now he is dancing hard on some last gasps. The vast liquidation movement is akin to the old man going through an embalming process while dancing atop the tables at the funeral parlor, as bidding proceeds for his cadaver. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
The Strong U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
"We're for a Strong Dollar" "There are more tears shed over answered prayers than over unanswered prayers..." – Teresa of Ávila, patron saint of headache sufferers
SO HANK PAULSON , Ben Bernanke and George W.Bush got their wish. The US Dollar is now the world's strongest currency.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 20, 2008
Central Banks Scramble to Buy Dollars to Bolster Banking Systems / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
The G-7 countries now have what amounts to access to the US Fed's window for dollars for their banks. But what of the rest of the world? Brad Setser, an analyst who writes a blog for the Council on Foreign Relations, ask some very interesting questions and points out some big holes in the world economic landscape. If you can't get dollars what does that do to your currency? This contributes to the rise in the dollar against some emerging market currencies. Setser asks: "Where is my swap line? And will the diffusion of financial power Balkanize the global response to a broadening crisis?" Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 19, 2008
U.S. Highly Inflationary Monetary Growth Will Lead to Dollar Implosion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
In previous Dollar Death Ray we saw how size of U.S. Federal Reserve balance had exploded. That financial frenzy continues. In most recent report, Federal Reserves balance sheet, after appropriate adjustment, was 46% larger than a year ago. Most of that growth has come recently during bank bailout scheme. Rarely, if ever, has central bank of a major economy so lost control of its balance sheet, or monetary policy. That expansion of reserve bank credit is now feeding the growth of U.S. money supply, M-2. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Dollar Doomed as Credit Crisis Turning into a Currency Crisis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jennifer_Barry
When the precious metals were smashed out of nowhere and the dollar started climbing this summer I became very worried. I didn't question my conviction that commodities are in a bull market, or that precious metals in particular are undervalued. I felt something sinister was at work. Neither move was justified on a fundamental level. I assumed that something very bad was about to happen and the metals needed to be brought lower in advance of the bad news. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
US Dollar Death Ray Powered by Soaring Federal Reserve Bank Credit / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Dollar Death Ray , powered by the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, is aimed at the heart of the U.S. dollar. Forget the U.S. Congress debate of the Bank Bail Out and Congressional Reelection Bill of 2008. The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury, without a vote of Congress and support of the voters, has given $253 billion to banks in the past week. That is according to the Federal Reserve statement issued yesterday, 2 October. Without any regard for their actions, these two agencies are flooding the U.S. banking system with liquidity in an unprecedented manner. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 26, 2008
US Dollar to be Hit by Federal Reserve Bank Credit Death Ray / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Our graph this week is of the Dollar Death Ray , which is aimed directly at the value of the U.S. dollar. This plot is an extension of that which was introduced in last week's Gold Thoughts . In the graph is plotted the year-to-year change in Federal Reserve bank credit. In simplest terms, it is the rate of expansion of the asset side of Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Latest data was released Thursday, 25 September. In this case, it has been adjusted for a circular transaction created by Treasury supplemental financing of the Federal Reserve which was recently done. Federal Reserve bank credit, or U.S. base money, has now been expanded at a record level. Rarely, if ever, has a major central bank intentionally inflated its balance sheet in such an inflationary manner.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Will the US Dollar Drown in an Ocean of Debt? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
About $3.6 trillion of market value was wiped-out from global stock markets in the three-days between Sept 15-17 th , triggered by the bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers, and fireworks in the $62 trillion credit default swap market. The collapse of Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch's eleventh-hour flight for safety into the arms of Bank of America, and the meltdown at American International Group, were all linked to credit default swaps on mortgages that led to the fall of these titans. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
US Trade Deficit Myths Busted / Economics / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Jack Crooks writes: The public is consistently fed doomsday scenarios from sources that absolutely should not be ill-informed, including the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
These guys should be the most informed bunch of all. But many are dead wrong when it comes to the U.S. current account deficit and its doomful impact on the U.S. dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 15, 2008
US Dollar Rally Not Over Yet / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Those looking for a collapse in the US dollar in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy did not get it. The US dollar index was down huge last night but has now rallied to even. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
US Dollars Last Gasp of a Doomed Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
In the latest example of financial market madness, the recent government “bailout” of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae has perversely resulted in a sharp rise in the value of the U.S. dollar. If the markets were functioning rationally, the transference of staggering new liabilities to the U.S. Treasury would have been immediately seen as catastrophic for the dollar. Instead the markets have ignored the obviously negative long-term implications and have remained fixated on the more immediate effects. However, rather than solving the problems, the government's actions merely confirm my worst fears, and increase the chances for a hyper-inflationary outcome. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
“Maverick McCain” and the Resurrection of the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
“As soon as you think you've got the key to the stock market, they change the lock,” lamented Joe Granville, who is mostly remembered for his bearish calls on the US stock market during the 1970's, 1980's, and the 1990's. Nowadays, many currency traders are scratching their heads, trying to figure out what's behind the sudden resurrection of the US-dollar, which is flexing its muscles for the first time in two-years, and defying conventional logic, by climbing sharply higher against most foreign currencies, including those that offer much higher rates of interest.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Scared Money Heads for US Dollar and Treasuries / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
"...So today we're back where we started, with a collapse in retail investments (then stocks, now housing) and the collapse of the very biggest institutional bets. The US administration's response...?"
EVIL DAYS indeed. Scared and scarred by losses in all other assets, the world's wealth suddenly wants to sit in the safety of US Dollars and US Treasury bonds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Massive US Dollar Short Opportunity / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joe_Gelet
One way or another, the dollar is going down. Hold on to your shorts because this will be the short of the decade.
Recent interventions in commodity markets, which has been a combination of short selling in the Gold market, and large institutions taking profit in a multi-year bull market in hard commodities such as Oil, has caused a short uptick in the dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 08, 2008
The Almighty US Dollar and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Captain_Hook
(WWII), where to the victors go the spoils derived from conflict. In this case, and subsequent to WWII, the US essentially took control of the Japanese and German economies, and more, spreading it's influence around the globe by imposing $ pricing mechanisms that stand to this day. Therein, it's no fluke crude oil and other commodities are primarily priced in $'s you see, which keeps the demand for the ‘almighty dollar' high, allowing for it's continued unmitigated manufacture. What's more, this manufacture has now spread into financial derivatives and other debt related instruments that keep the $ bubble growing at an accelerating pace. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2008
US Jobs Report Generates Limited US Dollar Damage / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The jump in the August unemployment rate to a new 5-year high of 6.1% from 5.7% leaves little doubt to currency traders that the USD rally remains largely a manifestation of broadening economic weakness outside of the US, rather than any signs of strength at home.
August nonfarm payrolls fell by 84K vs expectations of -75K, in track to match the length of consecutive monthly job losses in the recessions of 1990-91 (11 months) and 2001-2 (15 months).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2008
The US Dollar Bull Market Special / News_Letter / US Dollar
By: NewsLetter
August 18th , 2008 Issue #22 Vol. 2 Dear Subscriber, The US Dollar ended the week with a sharp rally that confirmed the recent breakout and the base building that began following the March 2008 low of 70.70, analysis at the time suggested that the Dollar was heavily oversold and projected a target towards $78, which is now in reach following the USD Index close of 77.15 on Friday.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
Why the US Dollar is Rallying / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Back in April, we alerted subscribers that the USD appeared to be bottoming. At the time, it was floating at about 70-72 on the USDX. A whole lot has happened since then to cause this reversal, with the USD now at 78 plus on the USDX (US dollar index currency basket heavily Euro weighted). There are many reasons for the rebound of the USD and its rise is likely to continue. Many of the long term trends that acted since 2002 to weaken the USD have reversed. The exceptions are the continuing US trade and fiscal deficits, but those USD bearish forces are being overridden by these other big bullish USD drivers that have now appeared in 08. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 04, 2008
US Dollar Soaring, Stocks Collapsing ECB Rates on Hold, So wheres Inflation? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today Trichet went to a 'neutral bias' as noted in ECB holds key rate steady at 4.25% The European Central Bank left its key lending rate unchanged at 4.25% in a widely anticipated decision Thursday, and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled it likely won't make a change any time soon.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Currencies Surge Against Gold Led by US Dollar as Carry Trades Unwind / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The events of the past three weeks in foreign exchange markets continue to be dominated by prolonged dollar strength and a fierce bout of selling in the British pound. The charts below show the secular performance of the major currencies, measuring their performances against gold -- whose price is determined by the forces of supply and demand rather than by central bank monetary policy or printing press. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 29, 2008
Is Massive Foreign Treasury Buying Causing a US Dollar Rally? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here is an interesting theory stipulating that foreign central banks are behind the rally in treasuries and that in turn is causing a rally in the dollar. Please consider Foreign Central Banks Behind Rally In US Treasuries .
The huge amount of US Treasury purchases which has sent that chart nearly vertical helps to explain the continued rally in the US Dollar. It is a near certainty that something has been transpiring behind the scenes involving various Central Banks in regards to the US Dollar.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 28, 2008
US Dollar Bottom Delusional Expectations in face of US Recession / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Delusional seems to be mental state of investment community as September approaches. Nonsensical talk of U.S. dollar having put in place a secular, or long-term, bottom is widespread. That EU economic growth rate might slow somewhat is interesting, but may be no more than statistical noise. That growth rate of Chinese economy might slow from “11+%” to “9%” is interesting, but is hardly a “dramatic” slowing.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 22, 2008
Global Economic Rebalancing Signals US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Key News
• The U.K. economy stagnated unexpectedly in the second quarter, ending the nation's
longest stretch of economic growth in more than a century. (Bloomberg)
British pound futures 60 min: News of stagnation not taken well. Ouch!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 22, 2008
The Real US Dollar Crisis Is Ahead / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Stathis
I'm going to be brief here. For those who have been celebrating dollar rally, don't get too excited because it's only a standard retracement, much like the U.S. stock market has experienced since reaching lows a few weeks ago. Of course the market has a long way to go down as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
The Reason for US Dollar Strength / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
If you’ve been wondering why the dollar has rallied so sharply, then stop wondering. The kind folks over at the Wall Street Journal have framed up the situation rather well. We’ve been keeping our Members up to speed on the relative game playing out in the currency market. Basically, even as the US economy fails to show any absolute improvement, the relative weakness from its competitors (primarily Europe and the United Kingdom) is driving their respective currencies lower and sending investment capital into the buck.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
Strong US Dollar Investment Implications for Stocks and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Mohamed El-Erian is the former highly successful manager of the Harvard endowment and current head of PIMCO. In an August 15, 2008 Bloomberg interview, he makes some comments which may help us to begin to understand the recent surge in the dollar in the face of less-than-ideal U.S. economic conditions.
"Currencies move not because they ought to but because they are allowed to. Previously rigid currencies are going to become more flexible because it is in their own interest."
Sunday, August 17, 2008
The US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Dollar ended the week with a sharp rally that confirmed the recent breakout and the base building that began following the March 2008 low of 70.70, analysis at the time suggested that the Dollar was heavily oversold and projected a target towards $78, which is now in reach following the USD Index close of 77.15 on Friday.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
Yikes! Major Reversal in Fortunes for the US Dollar and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Tell us again about the safe haven qualities of gold? It has been going straight down ever since Russia decided to spread its wings again. Maybe it’s just a correction. But maybe it is, as it has always seemed to us, that gold is only a reflection of global purchasing power that simply ebbs and flows with the world’s money and its safe have reputation is just that, reputation. And in case anyone was confused as to the world’s money; it is the financial gurus’ favorite whipping boy—the good old US dollar.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
The Strong US Dollar Illusion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the ability of foreign economies to “decouple” from the United States. Investors should not take the bait.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
US Dollar Short-Term Rebalancing of Expectations, Long Term Risk / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Recent price action in the foreign exchange market in our estimation is a function of a short-term rebalancing in expectations of global growth and demand for commodities. When combined with the pause in the rate hike campaign at the European Central Bank and growing uncertainty regarding the prospects for economic growth in the United States dollar bulls that have been lurking in the shadows for the past several years have re-emerged with gusto over the past two weeks. Although, the late summer rally in the dollar that has seen its value increase roughly 8% against the Euro, the case for a sustainable reversal in the fortunes of the greenback is neither persuasive nor compelling. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
The Case For and Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
We have been cautioning for some time that volatility in the currency markets may increase further, even from the elevated levels of the past year. Nonetheless, violent market action is nerve rattling, even to seasoned investors. An uptick in volatility tends to be associated with an unwinding of leveraged positions. This is also the case this time, but the types of trades being unwound look very different from those just a few months ago when the “carry trade” was the talk of the day. To shed some light on recent activity, we will focus on some key forces we believe act on the dollar and the currency markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Spreading Global Economic Weakness Is Positive for US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Yesterday, the dollar rallied hard against the euro. And today I want to tell you what I think is happening. Let's start with a question ...
What happened to decoupling, the idea that other economies were immune to weakness in the U.S.?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
U.S. Dollar Soars Triggering Major Currency Breakouts / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate . The euro fell the most in almost eight years, pushing the currency to a six-month low against the U.S. dollar, as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows.
The euro dropped below $1.50 for the first time since February after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday said economic growth will be "particularly weak'' through the third quarter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
US Dollar Bottoming? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Cai
Is the recent upward movement in the dollar a signal that it has bottomed out, and will now move back to a higher level? Or is it just a bull trap for those who are long the dollar?
Despite reports of cheaper prices for international travelers to the States due to the depreciated dollar, it would be wrong to safely conclude that U.S. goods are now so cheap at the existing exchange rate that the dollar must appreciate from its current level. Overall the price of American products is still too high to ease the massive trade imbalance between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
ECB Rate Freeze Boosts US Dollar Long-term Trend Change Probability / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Euro Slumps to Five-Month Low on Reduced Bets for Higher Rates . The euro slumped to a five-month low against the dollar as traders pared bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates due to a slowing economy.
The euro also fell to a three-week low versus Japan's currency after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth will be "particularly weak" through the third quarter. The dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain against the yen in almost two months as oil dropped 18 percent from a record. The Australian dollar declined for a ninth day, the longest stretch since 1980, as futures show the central bank will cut borrowing costs this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
US Dollar / Crude Oil Inverse Correlation Returns … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Over the last year or so almost everyone’s been pointing to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and crude oil. In a special issue of Currency Snapshot we included a chart that showed the recent breakdown of this correlation. Here’s an updated chart:Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
US Dollar Bullish and Bearish Scenarios / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crook writes: You can never actually know for sure what's going to happen on any given day, in any given market. And it's thinking you do know that can get you into real trouble.
Instead, you should think about the markets in terms of probabilities. I believe that is the real key to successful trading.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Ben Bernanke has Become the Destroyer of Worlds / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I love readers' comments at the end of online articles and blog entries. I recently came across one at the end of an article regarding general Federal Reserve policy that simply said:
"Ben Bernanke is like the death star. Destroyer of worlds."
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Currency Traders Are Convinced Of.. / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
... the Canadian dollar should be trading at par with the US dollar. We’re not sure exactly how traders became convinced, but this explains why we’ve seen a departure between the Canadian dollar’s correlation with commodities and commodity currencies.
At one point we’d have expected the Loonie to surge to new highs along-side crude oil and the Australian dollar. But we’ve found it just can’t shake the tight link between the US and Canadian economies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
US Dollar Final Decent - Dangers 2008-2009 Part2 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Part 2 talks about the world post the USD centric world economy. It looks out 1 to 3 years ahead. Part 1 talked about the immediate dangers to the world from a Middle East war, food and energy shortages, and inflation. It looked into late 08 and 09.This part talks about what would happen should the USD begin a final decent to far lower values.
We are now a full year into the credit implosion that started with the collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds in Summer of 07. So many dimensions of the world economy have changed dramatically for the worse since that pivotal event…
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Don't Buy the US Dollar Head Fake / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
This week, we were treated to strong statements by both Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke about the desirability of a “strong dollar”, and the intention of policy makers to pursue strategies that will enhance its value. To the relief of many, the dollar responded to the moral support and managed a mild rally. The move is inconsequential. The harsh realities have not changed in the slightest, and the dollar is set to continue its overall decline.
Although some investors respond to such jawboning, the more sophisticated international players, who in large part determine the foreign exchange market, do not. Why the bearish sentiment despite the bullish talk from Washington?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Australian Dollar Looking Over Extended Against US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
There is little doubt about the powerful run in Aussie—for good reason: 1) Strong economic growth, and 2) Highest yield among the major currencies.
Most analysts believe the next stop is par, or 1.000 against the US dollar. Another panic run out of the dollar likely leads to par. But on technicals alone (granted not too useful in a fear-driven market) the Aussie looks extended and due for a breather. Risk/reward!!
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
US Government to Intervene to Prevent US Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_OByrne
While risk appetite has increased with equity markets having a renewed bout of misplaced exuberance, this is likely to be short lived as equity markets experience another dead cat bounce. Barclays reports overnight that their “sentiment-based equity risk indicator remains within extremely bearish territory, and suggests that equities may continue to sell-off aggressively.” Poor returns and volatility in equity markets internationally is leading to safe haven diversification into gold. With the outlook for equities and bonds looking increasingly uncertain (especially in the light of the onward march of inflation in the U.S. and internationally), gold is set to continue to outperform other major asset classes for the foreseeable future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
US Dollar on Edge of BREAKDOWN, Gold on Verge of BREAKOUT / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US Dollar is on the edge of the chasm again. The nonsense has been cast aside about a bank recovery, a housing stabilization, and an economy that can withstand a spillover. How incredible it is to see grown adults accept such marketing and promotional drivel. Wake up and smell the blood! The US financial and economic system has never been so vulnerable in almost a century. What we see now is far more dangerous than the 1970 decade, characterized by vast cost shocks. Back then, China was not a player. Its current presence puts a price ceiling on finished product pricing power, and even more importantly, on wages broadly in the labor market. Households cannot afford higher prices, as bankruptcy pain escalates. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Fed Intervention Will Not Stop the US Dollar's Slide / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
This week the Federal Reserve took a step closer to acknowledging reality. Unfortunately it didn't let that admission move it from a policy course firmly guided by fantasy. In its policy statement, Bernanke & Co. took the important step in noting that inflation expectations had taken hold in the country at large. However, in asserting that it expects inflation to moderate this year and next, the Fed gave no indications that these heightened expectations are gaining traction within the Open market Committee itself. As a result, it signaled no likelihood that it was actually prepared to do something to fight a problem which it doesn't really believe exists in the first place. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
US Current Account Deficit is Still A Drag On the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Lost amidst recent data on inflation, the rise in oil prices, a deepening crisis in the housing market and the uncanny ability of Goldman-Sachs to outperform market expectations was the deterioration of the current account balance in Q1'08. The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $176.4 billion in the first quarter of 2008 vs. the $167.2 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2007. The primary catalyst for the increase was a decline in earnings from foreign investments and the sharp increase in the cost of imported oil. Should such an unsustainable and large deficit continue to persist, the value of the dollar over time could see another sharp adjustment due to the combination of global macroeconomic imbalance and the unwise economic domestic economic policies pursued in the US over the past few years. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
US Economic Disappointments Point to a Continuing Rebound in the Euro / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Activity may be quiet in today's US data calendar so it is time to further shed light on next week's key events. Sunday's emergency meeting in Saudi Arabia between oil producers and consumers, combined with next Wednesday's FOMC decision may serve as a powerful recipe for a lasting dollar rebound and effective containment of oil price increases, especially for the US, Europe and Japan. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Truth of the US Dollar Devaluation Behind Bernanke's Words / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
This week we have seen a textbook verbal campaign touch off a long-awaited rally in the Dollar, firmly supported by data to suggest that the Federal Reserve should at least hold a hard line on rates. We have even heard some Federal Reserve governors, most notably Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser calling for an immediate increase in interest rates. It has been my opinion since we first heard this verbal campaign begin nearly two months ago that the Fed's goal was to do nothing but talk. So far, I have not been disappointed. Here are some notable quotes from this week: Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
US Dollar Lifted by Talk of Intervention / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $867.80 in New York and was down $27 and silver closed at $16.57 down 58 cents. Gold has risen in Asia overnight and in early European trading this morning is up some 0.5%. Further consolidation between $850 and $950 is needed and the 200 day moving average at $855 is likely to provide good support (especially with oil up 2% today).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
CPR for the Dieing US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Kurt_Kasun
Perhaps we should institute DNR rather than CPR. Two days ago Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke shocked the world by commenting on his concerns regarding the fall of the US Dollar. In past policy, the Fed refrained from discussing the US currency; US dollar commentary was supposed to have been within the exclusive purview of the US Treasury. But it is now clear that the Fed is making up the rules as it goes. The remarks have had the intended result of resuscitating the buck, a welcomed response, according to today's Wall Street Journal editorial, "The Buck Stops Where," "because the price of gold and oil have fallen in each of the last two days." In this election year, there is a coordinated effort among the Treasury, the Fed, and regulatory agencies to beat down the price of commodities. If only it were that easy. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Bernanke's Feeble Attempt to Boost the US Dollar Lasts for Just 24hours / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is becoming increasingly obvious to everyone that in the world of central bankers there is only one credibility champ.
Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke warned about the price pressures caused by a weak dollar and emphasized inflation concerns in a speech on Wednesday, sparking a dollar rally and many pats on the back.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 06, 2008
The US Fed's Strong US Dollar Policy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Ever since Robert Rubin began the tradition in the mid-1990s, it has been a significant element of the Treasury Secretary's job description to continuously state that a strong dollar is in the national interest. It is widely regarded that such utterances, if repeated often enough, can constitute the sum total of what is still laughingly known as the nation's “strong dollar policy.” Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Climate Change Conundrum…Global Warming or Cooling? and US Dollar Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
The effects of burning huge quantities of oil around the globe has been going on for over 100 years and now the bio-feedback mechanisms are just starting to be noticed. Trends such as this take hundreds or thousands of years to revert back to the mean. A present, oil shortages along with many other commodities are now in Contango, which is putting pressure on longer term pricing for those wishing to secure raw materials for production purposes (e.g. steel for cars, oats for cereal etc.). Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Ben Bernanke Puts Markets on Notice that US Dollar Will Be Defended / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Ben Bernanke's speech in Barcelona this week hardly marks a new strong Dollar policy..."
BEN BERNANKE put the wind up Dollar bears, Gold bulls and just about everyone else in the currency markets for a whole hour on Tuesday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Has the US Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's my job to analyze the markets, turn them upside down, inside out, and always consider both sides of the story.
That's the only way to make informed trading decisions, and to make sure the odds are tipped in your favor as much as possible.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 02, 2008
Go Away in May, Come Back and Sell Today … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
We’re sure you’ve heard this before: “Sell in May and go away!” It’s the media’s cute way of explaining the relatively low interest and falling prices during the summertime. Mostly because they believe anybody who’s anybody is off sunning themselves on the beach or out at a ballgame somewhere.
Well, we’ve got a new little ditty for you: “Go Away in May, Come Back and Sell Today!”
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 26, 2008
Stocks and Oil Point to New US Dollar Low / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Just when nibbling at a dollar rally started to look safe — bam! The real world of rising risk reared its ugly head again.
Two markets that reflect risk are the stock market and crude oil. The stock market because it's the quintessential risk asset class. And crude because higher prices threaten economic growth and add to inflation expectations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 23, 2008
US Dollar Crisis Not Oil Crisis / Economics / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
It's unfortunate that the Supreme Court, in its ruling this week that U.S. currency is unfair to the blind, did not make the next logical step and declare it unfair to everyone who buys gasoline.
In their search for explanations as to why oil has surged past $130 per barrel, Washington, Wall Street, and the financial media are as clueless as cavemen after a freak summer snow storm.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Dow and the Dollar Tracking Tightly–Is US Dollar Test of Lows on the Cards? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
More evidence the dollar is not immune to risk. Stocks getting clobbered today for a host of reasons—choose your poison. Lately the dollar and the stock market have been moving closely together. Higher stocks equal higher dollar and vice versa. Is a test of the dollar lows in the cards? The run back into gold and continued move in commodities has the look of safe haven.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
How the Recession Will Impact the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Too severe, or not too severe; that is the question. I'm talking about the U.S. recession that we're already in, about to be in, or hoping to avoid.
At this point it depends a lot on how you approach the subject, but assuming for a moment that recession is inevitable, analysts and economists are asking: How much will growth contract? Can Mr. U.S. consumer muddle through, or will he stumble and fall? And how much have financial markets already discounted an official recession?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Australian Dollar vs. New Zealand Dollar: No Longer a One Way Bet Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
There’ve been a couple noticeable changes since the U.S. dollar index marked its most recent all‐time low on March 17th. Traders’ and investors’ appetite has been all mixed up.
The euro continued to rally to the $1.60 mark before falling about 5% versus the buck. It’s yet to recover. And I imagine this pair is under heavy scrutiny in determining the legitimacy of the dollar’s rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 11, 2008
US Dollar Bottoming Against Major Currencies? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
The dollar is gripping tightly to its two-week rally even though the fundamentals have changed very little. So what's behind the market's sentiment shift?
Less-dovish rhetoric from the Fed? That could be part of it. After the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the Fed is now expected to stop cutting rates for the foreseeable future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Beware of the US Dollar's Fake Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Don't mistake the U.S. dollar's recent rally for strength. If anything, it's a head fake of legendary proportions. In fact, the dollar's recent run-up is actually a warning that risks are escalating.
To better understand what I mean here, let's look at the greenback's recent performance against the euro. After bottoming at an all-time low of $1.6019 versus the euro on April 22, the dollar has soared nearly 4% and was trading at $1.5428 per euro early yesterday (Wednesday).
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
US Government Facing Fiscal Armageddon- US Dollar in Deep Trouble / Economics / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
When a president tells you the economy's OK and wannabe presidents tell you it's a disaster ... or when Wall Street pundits change their story almost daily ... I can understand how it may be tough to know what to believe ... and even tougher to decide what to do.
But when three respected government agencies put out reports and data that unanimously lead to the same conclusion about the most important factor in your financial future, there's no room for disbelief, no excuse for inaction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Crude Oil - US Dollar Divergence / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
We got a fairly decent level of angst mail yesterday, in relation to the series of charts John Ross put together, suggesting maybe the market is telling us the buck has bottomed. Some of the usual conspiracy kooks and some very real and solid reasons why the buck will make new lows again were included in our email box. Thank you to all for your feedback. We always appreciate it and learn from it.
One of our readers asked the following excellent question: “[B]ut how to explain dollar/oil to the crowd following that correlation?”
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 04, 2008
US Dollar Long-term Cyclic Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tim_Wood
Cycles are really just another way of looking at various trends of various degrees. Also, cycles in the market are really no different than many other cycles in nature. As an example, sometimes we have an early spring and sometimes it's late. Sometimes a particular bird's migration is earlier than normal and sometimes it can be a bit later than normal. In some winters the northern states experience more snow than in other years. Sometimes we have very active hurricane seasons and sometime we don't. The same is true with cycles in the market as they too, fluctuate in duration and intensity. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Will the Fed's Interest Rate Rollercoaster Ride Save the US Dollar? / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Why we Americans ever abdicated our financial freedom to a group of 12 unelected individuals who sit on the Federal Open Market Committee, is beyond me. That being said, we are stuck with a system that allows an unaccountable and unconstitutional institution dictate the appropriate level of interest rates instead of the free market. Our founding fathers made it clear that they wanted money to consist of only gold and silver. They did this so as to guarantee that the money supply had intrinsic value and would be limited in nature. This would also allow bank interest rates to be a function of savings vs. demand, not a matter of decree. Because of the above situation, we have been forced to endure a dizzying ride of interest rate gyrations that have created severe imbalances in our economy. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
How the FOMC Interest Rate Meeting Will Impact US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week. As you might imagine, a lively topic of conversation this weekend among currency traders is the direction of the infamous Fed Funds rate.
The obvious question leading up to Tuesday's interest rate decision: What are the implications of this FOMC meeting on the U.S. dollar? More specifically, has the Fed Funds rate found a bottom, or does the U.S. central bank have more work to do?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
“Hallelujah” for the Falling US Dollar?! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Hallelujah, of course, is a word of praise. To use that word to describe the fact that the USD has lost 40% of its value in the last 5 years, however, is economic blasphemy. Yet last week on television I had the pleasure of debating a well known strategist on the fallout of our crumbling currency and his angelic chorus was heard praising the falling dollar because of his belief that it would boost exports, rescue the economy from recession and encourage future GDP growth. Truly, “Hallelujah for the falling dollar!” is exactly what he exclaimed.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Gold US Dollar Trend Divergence-Trading in this Market is No Kids’ Game … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
This morning, for our Currency Currents Members, we delved upon the divergence between gold and the U.S. dollar. Ultimately, we feel this relationship could prove crucial to the direction the currency market takes now and a short ways down the road.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
United States- Death Of An Empire / Politics / US Dollar
By: David_Vaughn
What do you do when you no longer believe in something? I used to believe that economically things would eventually bottom out but I now believe we are due for hard times longer than I originally imagined. There are so many factors and fundamentals that refuse to quiet down. Instead, these issues are continuing to grow with a snowball effect. The momentum just grows higher and higher.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Elliott Wave on Crude and the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Stinson
Short Term Forecast Update - With a little more action in place, we have an update on the USD and Crude.US Dollar
The USD appears as an ending diagonal triangle pattern, currently in wave 4 of wave (5). The last update indicated that the USD was possibly in a (contracting) triangle but it will likely complete as an (ending diagonal) triangle.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Gold Highs, US Dollar Lows Not for Long / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
There is a fascinating technical situation in the euro-$ vs. the pattern
exhibited by spot gold prices. All of the action in the euro from March 17
has carved out a "wedge" type of formation, with flag tops and rising lows,
which should resolve itself in one pop to the upside into new high territory
above 1.5915 prior to a powerful and nasty downside reversal.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2008
US Dollar Crunch Time / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
‘Dollar’ and ‘Troubles’: two words that seem to go hand‐in‐hand these days. Well, if you’re disturbed about how poorly the dollar stacks up against major world currencies, I have bad news. Things could get much worse.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Has the US Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: "A bottom in the dollar? Are you kidding me?" are just two of the incredulous questions you might be asking after reading this title. All snickering aside, I do think it's time to start considering something as outlandish as that.
Despite still strong evidence to the contrary, there is compelling logic to suggest that, yes, the buck has bottomed. And if that is in fact the case, a sustained rally in the greenback would certainly present a rather lucrative proposition. Today, we'll delve into that very scenario.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Jim Rogers: More Pain for the Greenback, and the Failure of the Federal Reserve / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
SINGAPORE - By bailing out Wall Street and applying "band-aids" to the economy, the U.S. Federal Reserve may well be causing its own downfall - even as it hastens the demise of the greenback as a viable global currency, investment guru Jim Rogers told Money Morning during an exclusive interview.
Because of such strategic missteps, U.S. consumers could be facing a long and painful economic malaise, similar to the "lost decade" of 1990s Japan, or the stagflation-riddled 1970s in the United States, Rogers said.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 05, 2008
US Dollar Major Bottom Forecast Within Next Two Weeks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Marty_Chenard
This morning's update will look at two U.S. Dollar charts ... short term and long term.
The first is the weekly chart of U.S. Dollar going back to 2005. Very clearly, you can see that it has been in a down trend since 2005. Its descending channel has held steadily all the way down.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
The Collection Agency Weekly Report- Yen Carry Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. Firstly a big thank you for the interest in this article . From the reaction I have seen, it looks like I put into print what many were thinking. Enough hindsight, let us see what opportunities and risks face us in the coming week, or longer. We take a look at the Financials, looking for weakness and strength, wonder what the Dow has to say and have a look at gold and a few other commodities. We finish with an example of current living standards in the US , thanks to an email sent to me a couple of weeks ago.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 16, 2008
US Dollar Continues to Get Clobbered by Negative Fundamentals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: There appears to be no end in sight for the sliding greenback. This dollar of ours is rapidly falling to depths where no dollar has gone before. In fact, to say that it's unclear when we can expect a recovery would be a gross understatement.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Gold $1000 Sees Right Through Fed's 'Strong US Dollar Policy' / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Galakoutis
Imagine that, an entire economy built around the ability of the American consumer to borrow and spend money he can never conceivably pay back. A consumer so gorged in debt that he eventually stops making payments on his mortgage, credit cards and others debts, putting an end to the gravy train ride of the financial institutions that facilitated the funneling of credit to the now beleaguered spender.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Three Strikes Against the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Outside of my family, the two great loves of my life are currencies and baseball. And there are so many parallels between the two it's not even funny. Take the notion of a "rebuilding season" ...
Here in Florida, I get a chance to closely follow Major League Baseball's spring training — that magical time once a year when fans get an up-close sneak peek into the season ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 07, 2008
Real US Interest Rates and US Dollar Index (USDX) / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
After sliding to its lowest levels in history this week, the flagging US dollar has captured the limelight. And it certainly should. The dollar is like nothing else, a critical linchpin that links every market and asset of global importance. The implications of the dollar's fall from grace are profound and universal.
It's funny, as a surprising number of mainstream analysts on CNBC in recent weeks are talking as if this dollar weakness is new. Apparently they have no historical charts. The dollar, as measured by the flagship US Dollar Index (USDX), has been in a secular bear market since July 2001 . It has lost 39.2% of its value since then.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 02, 2008
US Dollar Plunges! Inflation Surges! Crunch Time for the Money Supply Pumpers! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: While nearly all eyes on Wall Street were riveted to the Dow's 315-point decline yesterday, the action in the U.S. dollar was even more dramatic, plunging to new all-time record lows!
But I still don't believe we've reached panic time just yet. In other words, you should be open to the dollar going even lower.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Like Beauty, the Value of Gold and the US Dollar Are in the Eye of the Beholder / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Lee
Like beauty, the value of gold and the dollar are in the eye of the beholder, which at times can be entirely subjective, arbitrary, and irrational. This is much akin to financial speculations throughout history from stamps to sea shells.
Everyone has their theory on why the US dollar is sagging – huge deficits, slowing economy, high inflation, artificially low interest rates, subprime issues etc.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
US Dollar at Major Turning Point? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: No matter how much money you've made betting against it, there comes a point when you've got to start feeling sorry for the U.S. dollar. In recent years it's become more hated than even the New York Yankees. And that's saying something!
You already know why the dollar has been suffering. Enormous trade deficits, a deteriorating real estate market, rising consumer debt, etc. All of these are contributing to the dollar's demise.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Win-Win Economics February 2008 - Alternative Money and Recession Relief / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Susan_Boskey
In This Issue:
In the News: Alternative Money
February Feature: Fourth Corner Exchange Bellingham, Washington
Quote of the month: Charles Mackey, 19th century Scottish journalist - “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Ben Bernanke Declares War on the US Dollar! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's hard to believe that the greenback could get any worse off than it already is, but the Federal Reserve looks dead set on doing everything in its power to punish the buck even more.
Witness the Fed's latest actions ...
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 01, 2008
Remaking the US Dollar from the Bottom Up / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Paul_Petillo
Marco Saba, a researcher at the Italian Center for Monetary Studies and author of a critical book about banking titled "Bankenstein" (2006) took the time to write me about the dollar at the beginning of last year. Mr. Saba?s field of expertise is seignorage (monetary rent), macroeconomic evaluations and central banking.
For those of you unfamiliar with Mr. Saba, his work has led him to the belief that the current monetary system is in need of reform. In fact, the sheer radical-ness of the idea is akin to throwing the baby out with the bath water.
Monday, January 28, 2008
US Dollar Continuing Rally or Fresh Lows? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Forecasting market tops and bottoms is a mug's game. In reality, the best we can do is trade with confidence when the time is right.
In fact, I've learned the key to long-term market success isn't just about winning trades ... it's about limiting what you lose during the times you are wrong. And I think the single best way to control your risk is by holding two opposing views of the market in your mind at the same time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Fed Plays Russian Roulette with US Dollar - Stoking the Fires of Stagflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
In an age where governments of every political stripe distort data to promote their own self interests, it's hardly surprising that they present inflation data in a manner that is best suited to their particular needs. By the same token, it's entirely natural for official inflation data to be wildly at odds with the reality that is faced by consumers and businesses, and to be regarded with utter disbelief. So it wasn't shocking to hear Federal Reserve officials insist last week, that inflation in the United States is under control, before telegraphing another tidal wave of liquidity injections into the US economy in the months ahead. “Stable inflation expectations give the Fed a lot of room for maneuver. If the evidence suggests that substantial policy easing is appropriate, I don't think we're going to face a risk of adverse inflation consequences,” said St Louis Fed chief William Poole on Jan 9th.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
US Dollar and British Pound Both Heading Down! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
The housing market in the United States is collapsing. It's no longer a secret. Nor do you have to be an economist to see how the real estate contagion is taking its toll on the broader American economy.
Heck, the evidence of an economic slowdown was already piled high, and last Friday's jobs report was the cherry on top of the whipped cream!
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Currency Forecasts 2008 - Protracted Selling of the British Pound / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashraf_Laidi
A likely major FX theme of 2008 is already being playing out; Protracted selling in the British Pound, broad strength in the Australian dollar and continued rally in gold. We had described the British pound as the likely "dollar of 2008" and so far it hasn't disappointed. GBP drops to new all time lows against the euro, 8-month lows against the dollar, and 10-year lows against the Australian dollar. The latest catalyst to sterling's gloom is a decline in consumer confidence a 13-month low, decline in job placements to a 54-month low, and 2.2% decline in like for like Christmas sales from major retailer Marks & Spencer. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Impact of US Dollar Inflation and Devaluation - ILLUSION, MYTH AND MAGIC / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
THE DOLLAR HAS LOST OVER 97% OF ITS PURCHASING POWER SINCE 1913 (THE FOUNDING OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE 94 YRS. AGO).
What does it look like when we convert U.S. benchmarks of value to other THINGS over the past 8 years?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 06, 2008
US Dollar Stealth Devaluation Leading to Hyper Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
Wow, what a start to 2008! So far in 2008, both the Wilshire 5000 (which is essentially the entire U.S. stock market) and the S&P 500 have lost all their gains from the entire year of 2007 in just the first three trading days of 2008. Gold set a new record high , Thursday intraday and closing, at 872.90 and 869.10 respectively. Oil hit $100 a barrel for a moment intraday Wednesday, for the first time ever . The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index enjoyed an 11.83 percent pop the first three trading days of 2008. Sweet. Treasury Bonds rose 2 points , closing inches from 118.00. The Dollar got carved up , falling into the 75's. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 06, 2008
US Recession - Friday Unemployment Bombshell and How to Trade The Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Recession is the operative word for the U.S. economy right now. The housing market is already there. And various other economic indicators are pointing straight down. Just look at the latest data that came out this week ...
The ISM Manufacturing Index report showed that 10 straight months of expansion came to a screeching halt in December. The measure contracted the most since 2003, and was much weaker than everyone expected.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
US Dollar Forecast 2008 - Determines Trend for Stocks, Bonds and Commodities / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Greg_Silberman
It's all about the Dollar (again)
Even to the casual observer it's now apparent that the financial world is one giant see-saw. On the one side of swing is the once Almighty Dollar and on the other side is every other investable asset class.
Wherever the Dollar goes in 08, stocks, bonds and commodities will head the other way.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
US Dollar Rally to Terminate Under Weight of Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Old man winter definitely arrived last night (for the second time this year, dumping around 6 inches of snow on the Peg. Each snowflake by itself is nothing in weight, but collectively represent a significant amount of weight that can pack down and form glaciers that may not move mountains, but definitely carve a path. Think of each USD as a snowflake, which by itself is nothing. Collectively though, the trillions of USD similar to the snowflakes blanketing a city are instead blanketing the globe. This creates a real slippery situation that causes accidents left and right, even for those that are conservative drivers. Snowploughs (AKA Central Bankers) can clean up and move the snow, but it merely is removed. Allow for a strong wind and the snowflakes are blown all over the place, creating huge drifts in areas where there once was nothing. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
2008: Penance for 2007 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Paul_Petillo
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
and never brought to mind ?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
and auld lang syne ?
The timing of these year-end prediction columns is often of little importance. Believe it or not, what happens in December tends to meld into January. This blurring of the lines between one year and the next will not be your usual holiday hangover.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
US Dollar Bounce May be Temporary as Global Credit Markets Remain Frozen / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
As pundits on Wall Street want to hop on the next trade, they pronounce the U.S. dollar is due for a bounce. In favor of a bounce speaks that popular media cover the dollar's demise; and the Economist shows a burning dollar bill on its cover page while discussing the “panic” out of the dollar. While short-term currency moves are notoriously difficult to predict, it is rather worrisome that contrarian indicators pose the best arguments for better fortunes for the greenback. We also beg to differ with the Economist: there is no panic out of the dollar, at least not yet.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 07, 2007
Inevitable Demise of the Debt Based US Dollar / Economics / US Dollar
By: The_Big_Fisherman
From Fear to Horror - With the bi-polar behavior of the financial markets these past few months, it is sometimes best to remember back to when the unfolding of current events was seen only by the heretics. It is at this point in time where they had the least biased view of the history now being made. These mavens were few, and the ramifications of their insight were but distant theory. And perhaps only they properly recognize the extent of the horror now confronting those trapped inside the nanny-state bubble. Cooing pundits and those that soften the hard edges are not to be trusted.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 06, 2007
U.S. Assets Getting Devalued as US Dollar Falls! What to do... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: The subprime mortgage crisis and real estate implosion in America have created a debt debacle. Consumers and corporations are in debt up to their eyeballs. And the national debt is increasing at a rate of more than $7.4 billion per day !
As a result, the Fed has been forced to crank up the printing presses to flood the economy with paper money in an attempt to inflate away the debt and keep it from crushing the economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 01, 2007
World Abandoning the US Dollar as International Currency For Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The foreign exchange markets are not solely about exchange rates. They are about values, smooth flowing of international trade, about trust and reliability. The sight of the $ falling over a long period of time, with bounces and recoveries that don't change the downward trend is far more than simply a drop in value!Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Falling US Dollar to Boost US Stock Markets and Consumer Spending / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Imagine that you have $2.8 trillion sitting around. And for kicks, let's assume that most of that money, about two-thirds, is invested in U.S. dollars and other dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.
And let's assume that your currency was linked to the U.S. dollar, too. In other words, you often buy dollars to maintain a stable value relative to the buck.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 23, 2007
Weak US Dollar Looks Set to Lose Role as the Worlds Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
Goldfinger? Bofinger! "...Once the Dollar loses its role as the supreme reserve currency, just what other uses might it be put to exactly – wall-papering the inside of central bank vaults? Rolled up for use in the People's Bank restrooms...?"
YOU THINK you've heard it all before. But then some idiot comes along and stops your heart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 23, 2007
Foreign Investors Set to Abandon the US Dollar as Fed Gives Up Fight Against Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
As internal debates in the Gulf and Asian nations intensify over the need to continue propping up the U.S. economy, dangerous signals this past week from the Fed, Freddie Mac, and Wall Street may be pushing them to finally let go of the lifelines that have kept America afloat.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 22, 2007
US Dollar Loses the Currency War - Gold Readies For Next Move Higher on Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The competing currency wars are beginning to escalate. Since 2002 the battles have certainly shown signs of economic damage. But they are really heating up. The winners are difficult to define. The losers are all nations involved. The important viewpoint is to identify which nations and economies will lose relatively less, and how they manage the warfare so as to gain an advantage over rival nations. The losers are clear. They are the United States and all nations which hang on with their tight US$ peg for political reasons. It is difficult to identify China (plus Hong Kong ) and Arab oil exporters as uniform winners when their economies are suffering some blatant distortions of their own. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
US Dollar Devaluation is a Supply and Demand Problem / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
Dollar falls to all-time low against the Euro"
"Canadian dollar hits all-time high versus US counterpart"
"Australian dollar at multi-year high"
"British Pound crosses $2 threshold"
These are just some of the headlines that have emerged during the past year concerning the ails of the US Dollar. There have been hundreds, perhaps thousands of explanations for why this is a good or bad thing. Thousands more questions asked, but never answered. At the end of the day though, it is really about our old friend: The law of Supply and Demand.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
Bernanke Squirms As the US Dollar Burns / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Brady_Willett
Bernanke's larger than expected 50 bps cut on September 18 helped spark a sell off in the U.S. dollar. A deteriorating outlook for the U.S. economy and another Fed rate cut on October 31 accelerated the dollar's decline. Fear has taken over in November…
It is not surprising that against this backdrop talk about how wonderful a weaker dollar is for America has nearly vanished. As a quick example, head of currency research at Morgan Stanley, Stephen Jen, was claiming a few weeks ago that although the dollar may weaken further, “…investors should keep in mind that the dollar is undervalued and ready to appreciate as soon as the economy regains traction.” The most recent sell off in the dollar now has Mr. Jen rattled, not to mention many others:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
US Dollar - A Crisis to Shatter the Whole World / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
THE FRENCH PRESIDENT was in Washington this week, speaking to Congress en Français and telling the United States to stop dumping Dollars and risking a global financial crisis.
Ooh la la! Sounds just like old times...
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
China Slams US Dollar; Yen Looks Great! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes:China is getting very good at controlling currency values, and not just their own. While it's no secret they've been artificially suppressing the value of the Chinese yuan, they're now pushing down the value of the U.S. dollar, too!
The implications for the currency markets are huge. Most importantly, this development propelled the yen much higher, and I expect the momentum to continue building. Here's the scoop ...
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Deadly Dollar Downtrend States All Inflation Adjusted Statistics Are Wrong, True Inflation is Double CPI! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The public and investment community continues to be bombarded with denials as to the importance of the seemingly endless slide in the US Dollar, along with curiously shallow commentary that the US $ slide seems overdone. The US$ exchange rates could justify a 50% decline from here, out of sheer principle, not based upon the relative price of milk cartons or taxi rides. The comprehension of the gold breakout signal seems equally misunderstood and minimized. To be clear, the people have begun to sense with alarm the nature of the energy cost problem, but do not detect its weak currency roots. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 08, 2007
US Dollar Devalution - When Cash Is Trash: What To Do ... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Your cash — whether it's in money markets, bonds, or hidden under your mattress — is quickly becoming trash.
You see, just as I've been predicting all along, the Fed continues to flood the market with unbacked paper dollars. The latest: An injection of $41 billion, the day after the Fed cut interest rates last week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 08, 2007
US Dollar Bear Market That's Threatening Nearly Every Portfolio / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Despite some hiccups, the broad indices have had a great run recently, pushed along by good data on jobs, personal spending and more. It's what you call a "Goldilocks market" — a time when the economic data isn't too hot and isn't too cold.
Gross domestic product is rising at a 3.9% clip, so investors feel things are just right, and they keep pushing stocks higher.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
US Dollar Slumps to New Lows - British Pound (GBP) 2.10 - Commodities Soar - Dollar Rally Expected / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Dollar slumped sharply to new lows against major currencies which included falling to $2.10 to the British Pound. The latest sell off was attributed to comments by a chinease official who suggested that China should look to transfer its over $1.4 trillion of forex reserves to 'stronger' currencies.
"We will favour stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly," said Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
How to Survive The Declining US Dollar: Free Report from Weiss Capital Management ... / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
With the U.S. Dollar Index now trading well below its previous low of all time … with its value now risking a virtual free-fall … and with the Fed's latest rate cut adding even more impetus to its decline … virtually every market in the world is being impacted: Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 05, 2007
US Dollar in the Doldrums / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Regent_Markets
The Dollar again grabbed the headlines last week as it hit all time lows against the Euro and levels not seen in generations against the Pound & Canadian Dollar.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 01, 2007
Factoring in the Fed Interest Rate Decision - Where to now for the US Dollar? / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Regent_Markets
Wall Street leapt higher last week after the Federal Reserve calmed investors' fears about a sinking economy, implying that risks to the financial markets from the summer's credit crises have eased, says BetOnMarkets.com's Michael Wright.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
US Dollar Haunted by the Ghosts of Halloween / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Dorsch
The story of Halloween goes back over 2000 years to the ancient Celts. Druidic priests regarded October 31st as the end of the year. Not only was it their day for celebrating the year's harvest, but also a festival for honoring the dead. In order to appease the wandering spirits that they believed roamed at night, the Celtic priests made fires in which they burned sacrifices, made charms, and cast spells. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 29, 2007
Is an International Currency Crisis on the Way? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gerard_Jackson
In trying to resolve the basic issue of where prices go from here, we have to balance short-term market momentum against the increasing drag of economic reality and we have to weigh the price enhancing effects of inflationary monetary policy and deliberate currency neglect against the price depressive ones of a meaningful frustration of current entrepreneurial assumptions. We then have to grope towards some tentative conclusions on the vexed issue of whether the cycle in Asia (and, indeed, in Continental Europe) has achieved sufficient automotive power for it to ride out any more serious abatement of Atlantic Rim over-demand.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Dollar Devaluation Is Annihilating the Middle Class and Worse is Yet to Come! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
You Want to Know Why You Feel Like You are Struggling Financially?
Because the U.S. Dollar Has Just Been Devalued
by a Third Over the Past Five Years.
And more devaluation is coming. Perhaps another 50 percent. The markets are convinced that the Fed is going to drop rates again on Halloween by another half percentage point. This means hyperinflation, and all markets moved accordingly Friday. The Dollar hit a new low, at 77.00, and is worth 53 percent of what a Euro is worth.
Read full article... Read full article...