Category: UK Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, July 13, 2021
How Will Remote Work Impact the U.K. economy? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Sumeet_Manhas
When the pandemic hit the U.K., millions of knowledge and office workers were forced to work from home. Regarding productivity and work/life balance, remote work has proved to be a success in many instances. The consequences for the overall economy may not be so favourable if remote working becomes a permanent arrangement.
Historically, national-scale crises have a tendency to revolutionise societies and the way that we work. In the fourteenth century, for example, the Black Death plagued (literally) Europe. Approximately one-third of Europe’s population died from the plague. As a result, many historians believe that labour-saving devices such as the printing press were developed to adapt to the lack of workers. Some historians have also theorised that the Black Death led to the expeditions into “new lands” that occurred in the decades that followed. Perhaps travelling on a boat to parts unknown seemed relatively safe following a pandemic that killed around 25 million people.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! coined by Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville in 1992. The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
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Friday, January 19, 2018
Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy / Economics / UK Economy
By: Submissions
What really happens in an economic minute? Is the UK flush with cash or does it need a bad credit loan? How much money does the UK make every 60 seconds? What's the average household income every minute compared to the highest-powered CEOs? It can't be too much in just a minute. Or can it? We crunched the numbers to create a 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy.
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Thursday, November 23, 2017
UK Economic Austerity, Bloodletting and Incompetence / Politics / UK Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Punxsutawney Phil Hammond, the UK chancellor, presented his Budget yesterday and declared five more years of austerity for Britain. As was to be expected. One doesn’t even have to go into the details of the Budget to understand that it is a dead end street for both the country and for Theresa May’s Tory party.
So why the persistent focus on austerity while it becomes clearer every day that it is suffocating the British economy? There are many answers to that. Sheer incompetence is a major one, a lack of empathy with the poorer another. Conservative Britain is a class society full of people who dream of empire, and deem their class a higher form of life than those who work low-paid jobs.
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Thursday, January 26, 2017
UK Economy Post BrExit Boom! Academic and Mainstream Press Clueless Reporting Continues / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Its now over six months since the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, a message that clueless academics have continued to regurgitate across the mainstream press for the duration since. However, the most recent economic data continues to paint the exact opposite picture as GDP for the last 3 months of 2016 came in at a very healthy 0.6%. Which in itself followed 0.6% for the preceding quarter, a time when the UK economy was supposed to be in a state of economic collapse! A collapse that has FAILED to materialise! Instead the UK is probably the worlds fastest growing developed economy.
Thursday, December 08, 2016
Budget 2016: Borrowing, Lifetime ISA, House Prices, Economy, Syria, Brexit and Stocks / News_Letter / UK Economy
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter21st Mar, 2016 Issue # 8 Vol. 10
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Wednesday, September 07, 2016
BrExit UK Economic Collapse Evaporates, GDP Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Its now two months on from when the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, however subsequently a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests had propagandised both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, a message literally warning of economic collapse as the following warnings of doom from David Cameron, George Osborne and Mark Carney illustrate and that which many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality starting to dawn of a UK economy that is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several economic measures into and during the month of August.
Monday, September 05, 2016
UK Economy Post BrExit Boom, Bank of England, Treasury Economists, Journalists ALL WRONG! / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Two months on from the BrExit economic collapse apocalypse prophecies a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests painted both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, one of recession or even economic collapse that many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality stating that the UK economy is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several measures for the month of August.
Monday, July 04, 2016
BrExit Implications for UK Economy, Interest Rates, Bonds, Markets, Debt & Deficit, Inflation... / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
On Thursday 23rd of June 2016 the people of Britain voted to LEAVE the European Union surprising all including politicians, financial markets, big businesses, pollsters, bookmakers and even prominent LEAVE campaigners such as Nigel Farage who conceded defeat shortly after the polls closed at 10pm only to start backtracking a couple of hours later. The apparent surprise result that confounded most expectations has led to a spike in market and policy uncertainty as within hours of the decision David Cameron announced that he would be stepping down as PM and thus triggering a Tory leadership contest. Whilst Labour apparently went one step further by completely self destructing as 75% of Westminister Labour MP's attempt to eject Jeremy Corbyn, a civil war that looks set to destroy the Labour party. So Britain today remains rudderless without a functioning government or opposition let alone any idea of exactly how a BrExit vote will translate into real world impacts in every day peoples lives where now major business and economic decisions have been put on hold.
Monday, June 20, 2016
The Fallacy of GDP Growth and How the UK Economy is Actually Shrinking / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mario_Innecco
hi monday jun 20 of 2016 monaco 64 here home of alternative economics and contrarian views
I want to talk about GDP today that's gross domestic product just basically a
Keynesian centrally planned measure of economic production in any economy and
the equation for it is consumption plus investment plus government spending plus
net exports so yes they include government spending in gross domestic product which in my
opinion doesn't make any sense at all because government spending is done
through taxation government doesn't produce anything you may argue that they
run but the public sector but it's a monopoly and the only way they run it is
through taxation which is basic read distributing private income into the
government so I want to talk about the fallacy of economic growth of the last
eight years in the UK especially because that's where i am and you know we we've
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
The UK Auto Market Is Booming, So Is It a Sign of Economic Recovery? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
The UK has been one of those economies that cannot exactly be classified as recovering or struggling over the last couple of years. To put it clear, the UK economy has not been as good as the US economy in terms of growth amongst the developed countries or as bad as the Euro Zone.
The UK economy has been more or less stuck in the past few years with no significant movement either side of the growth curve. Nonetheless, one of the country’s key performance indicators in the manufacturing industry has shown some significant improvement, and recent numbers suggest that things could even get better in 2016 and 2017.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
UK Economic Growth Evaporating, Worse to Come than OBR Budget 2016 Forecasts / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The governments fantasy projections on the economy made by their Office for Economic Propaganda (OBR) shortly following the Conservatives May 2015 election victory are fast unraveling as the OBR's latest propaganda nudged expected growth for 2016 lower to 2% from 2.4%, and growth for 2017 lower to 2.2% from 2.5%, whilst maintaining more distant year overly optimistic forecasts.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
The UK’s Growing Economies / Economics / UK Economy
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Since the Economic Downturn in 2008, economic adjectives have been ubiquitous and we hear and read daily of an ailing or buoyant; expansionary or inflationary; bullish or recessionary economy. Optimistic or pessimistic perspectives on economic matters are often a result of one’s portfolio or even their political leanings and, consequently, many people are influenced by Medias need to define an economy as ‘In or Out of Recession’. Often the accepted formula of two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth or contraction in a sector fuels their abysmal report. Others such as Chief Economic optimist Joe Grice of The Office of National Statistics (ONS) see no statistical basis to characterise the economy as recessionary. He states, “Overall, in recent years, the economy appears to have been on a bumpy plateau, with an upward trend but at well below historic growth rates.”
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Friday, December 05, 2014
The UK Smoke And Mirrors Economic Miracle / Politics / UK Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
Abenomics Comes (Back) to Britain
We can easily argue that the UK has outdone Japan in financializing and destroying its economy using “pure Keynesian logic”. Its degutted empty-shell economy is fated to grow debt faster than the UK's real economy, and then implode - well suited to its pseudo multicultural, pseudo meritocratic society. Keynes, who was English, bisexual and a paid-in member of its degenerate elite said that central bank QE and debt growth are a lovely idea, but expecting the real economy to react and respond only to money printing and a debt binge is like a man who wants to become fat thinking the best way is to buy a large sized belt for his trousers! Fatuous hope is all.
Saturday, May 24, 2014
UK Economy Accelerating General Election Boom, Real Secret of Financial Success and Will Scotland Commit Suicide? / News_Letter / UK Economy
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterMay 1st , 2014 Issue # 10 Vol. 8
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Thursday, May 01, 2014
UK Economy Accelerating General Election Boom, Real Secret of Financial Success and Will Scotland Commit Suicide? / Politics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Academic economists have once more been caught on the hop as the UK economy led by the services sector accelerates to its best year on year growth rate in 6 years of 3.1% by adding preliminary GDP of 0.8% for 2014 Q1 that annualises to an near economic boom rate of 3.2%, with the economy now looking set to have recouped all of the last Labour governments catastrophic collapse of 2008-2009 by the end of June this year.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
UK Accelerating Economic Boom, GDP 1.9% 2013, 4% 2014? Conservative Election Win? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest ONS UK GDP data showed strong growth for Q4 that lifted annual GDP for 2013 to 1.9%, the fastest growth rate since 2007, and up from the 0.3% of 2012 and that many economists had convinced themselves that the UK was heading for a triple dip recession during 2013.
The UK economy risks suffering from a triple-dip recession amid a period of persistently low growth that will last until the next election, the governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King warned - Nov 2012.
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Monday, February 25, 2013
Osborne Cornered as Sterling Slides / Politics / UK Economy
By: Alasdair_Macleod
On 20 March George Osborne, the UK's Chancellor, will present his budget. So far he has made a valiant attempt to cap public sector spending, particularly when compared with other finance ministers who were slow to adopt austerity. He has reduced public sector spending from what it would otherwise be, but has not managed to cut the total figure. His strategy now for controlling the budget deficit increasingly depends on higher tax revenues from a combination of forecast economic growth and more aggressive tax collection.
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Monday, August 13, 2012
Post Olympic Recession Depression / Economics / UK Economy
By: Jan_Skoyles
Yesterday the London 2012 Olympics ended with a spectacular finish, leaving the UK proud to have pulled off such a historical event. Across the globe the world’s media have sung our praises on the success of such a great 16 days.
The London Olympics was just one of a handful of events which the UK, particularly London, has been preparing for, for a good while now. Its completion signifies what I suspect will be a speedy fall back to earth for British citizens who have had party after party to look forward to for many years.
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Friday, March 04, 2011
Inflation and Tax Rises Crush Britain's Middle Class, Real Earnings 25% Drop! / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK annual earnings grew at an annualised rate of 1.1% (December 2010), this compares against the official UK inflation rate of CPI 4% and the more recognised RPI at 5.1%, with the real UK inflation rate as experienced by most of the people of Britain running at 6.6%.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Mervyn King Effectively Admits Bank of England Has Lost Control of Inflation and Economy / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mervyn King along with Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee having spent virtually the whole of 2010 pumping out temporarily high inflation propaganda so as to prevent a wage price spiral from taking hold, now on having looked at preliminary data for January 2011 inflation to be released in Mid Feb, effectively admits that the Bank of England has lost control of Inflation and the Economy as the latest GDP data shocked everyone by showing a disastrous contraction of -0.5% for Q4 2010 against expectations for +0.5% (1% difference).
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
UK Economic Boom Continues, GDP Q3 2010 +0.8%, Academic Economists Remain Clueless / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK economic boom continued into the third quarter of 2010 with GDP jumping by 0.8% (+3.2% annualised), that itself followed on from an eye wateringly high growth rate of 1.2% for Q2, both of which were missed by the academic economists that populate the financial institutions and journalists / pseudo economists in the mainstream press that only hours before were expecting growth of 0.4% (1.6% annualised), which despite the economy booming still continue with mantra's based on theoretical models for a none existant double dip recession whilst the real economy literally booms.
Friday, October 22, 2010
UK Public Sector Spending Cuts Impact on Deficit, Debt, Unemployment and Economy / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Coalition Government on Tuesday (21st Oct) translated it's proposed spending cuts total of £81 billion over the next 4 years into a break down of which public sector departments will bare the weight of the cuts, whilst at the same time trying to persuade the population that the austerity measures have been spread across all income groups.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast 2010 to 2015 / News_Letter / UK Economy
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterAugust 9th, 2010 Issue #46 Vol. 4
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Monday, August 09, 2010
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast 2010 to 2015 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis is a continuation of the UK Debt Forecast article (UK ConLib Government to Use INFLATION Stealth Tax to Erode Value of Public Debt ) on the impact of the new coalition government having effectively hit the reset button on the UK economy to now primarily target a reduction in the £156 billion annual budget deficit which aims to suck £113 billion a year out of the economy by 2015-16 by means of swinging public sector spending cuts and tax rises. The government has now clearly reversed the Labour governments policy of continuous fiscal expansion and set the country on a course for severe fiscal contraction for at least the next 3 years.
Friday, July 23, 2010
UK Stealth Economic Boom, GDP 1.1% Growth Catches Press and Academic Economists By Surprise / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK registered strong GDP growth during the second quarter of 2010 of 1.1%, annualised to 4.4%, which caught the mainstream press, academic economists and even the City by surprise who had typically penciled in growth expectations of between 0.3% and 0.5% from just the day before let alone longer term actionable forecasts, much of the recent mainstream press commentary has been focused on the risks of a double dip recession as illustrated below:
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Four Stocks to Buy Ahead of Britain's Unexpected Economic Turnaround / Economics / UK Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: I have been negative on Britain for a decade - and with good reason. The British economy was over-dependent on financial services, and government spending - at greater than 50% of gross domestic product (GDP) - was out of control.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
UK Unemployment Falls Inline With Forecast Trend Expectations / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The previous Labour government's debt fuelled election bounce continues to have a positive impact on the UK economy as the number of unemployed for May fell to 2.47 million down by 34,000 in the three months to May. However whilst the ConLIb government may try and claim some credit from Labours lagging unemployment news, the headline figure masks several problem areas such as the rise in the long-term unemployed up by over 60,000 to 787,000.
Thursday, July 01, 2010
UK Unemployment Forecast 2010 to 2015 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest set of figures from the coalition ConLib government forecast that 600,000 public sector jobs will be lost over the next 5 years at the rate of 120,000 per year as a consequence of spending cuts and tax rises of £113 billion per year by 2015-16, that will directly result in loss of private sector jobs of an additional 700,000 to total of 1.3 million. However at the same time the Prime Minister, David Cameron announced that the economy by some miracle would create 2.5 million private sector jobs to more than off-set the 1.3 million expected to be lost as a consequence of spending cuts.
Friday, June 18, 2010
EXTEND & PRETEND: A Matter of National Security / Politics / UK Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
There is something seriously wrong in America. We all sense it, but few in the mainstream media are willing to touch it or can effectively articulate it within the public’s sound-bite oriented attention span.
It isn’t just about the remnants of the financial crisis; it isn’t the protracted jobs recession and slow recovery; it isn’t the trillions of dollars in deficit spending; it isn’t the degree of rampant financial malfeasants. It is something deeper which reaches into the soul of who we are as a people and society. It will soon be the central theme to your investment strategy and financial security.
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Sunday, May 23, 2010
UK 300,000 Public Sector Job Cuts, Many Quangos to be Axed / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Cheers to Austerity in the UK. Here is something the US needs to see twentyfold minimum: 300,000 jobs in public sector face the axe
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Real U.K. Unemployment is 5.5 million, the Jobless Economic Recovery? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest U.K. Unemployment and claimant count data released Wednesday show a confusing mixed picture which allowed both Labour and the Conservatives to broadcast election propaganda in their own favour.
- U.K. Unemployment ROSE to 2.502 million for January 2010, which elevated the Jobless rate to 8%
- U.K. Benefits Claimant Count (seasonally adjusted) FELL by 33,000 to 1.54 million for Feb 2010.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Rebalanced UK Economy and Economic Growth To Fix Britain's Finances / Economics / UK Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Long time readers know that I am a huge fan of Martin Wolf, economist and columnist for the Financial Times. His writing is the reason to get the Pink Lady (as the Financial Times is known) as far as I am concerned.
This week's Outside the Box has two columns back to back from last week from Wolf, talking about the problems in Britain which look like the same problem all over the developed world. Wolf argues (rather cogently) that the answer is to increase exports and for a further weakening of the pound. Quoting:
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
U.K. Keynesian Disaster Economy, Crippling Budget Deficit and Rising Prices / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The U.K. is the poster child for Keynesian stupidity carried out to extreme levels. In an extremely well written article, Matthew Lynn, a Bloomberg columnist discusses the sorry state of British affairs in Deathbed of Keynesian Economics Will Be in U.K.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
UK GDP Growth +0.1%, Economy Stagnates in 4th Quarter 2009 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Office of National Statistics has reported UK GDP fourth quarter 2009 growth of 0.1% that brings Britain's worst recession since the Great Depression to an end that saw GDP shrink by -6.2%. However 0.1% for Q4 is not economic growth, rather it is economic stagnation at an annualised growth rate of just 0.4%.
Friday, January 22, 2010
British Economy Faces Economic Storm Clouds of Rising Inflation and Credit Downgrades / Economics / UK Economy
By: John_Browne
Having been among the economic engines of Europe for much of the past decade, it appears as if the British economy has run out of steam. Inflation is rising while bankruptcies and unemployment continue to swell. It is a problem that would have left Lord Keynes' head spinning. In many ways, the responses of the U.S. and U.K. governments to the financial crisis have been very similar. So far, the American advantages in size and reserve currency status have allowed us to avoid the storm-clouds now descending upon Britain. But these advantages only provide a temporary respite. In the meantime, the slow-motion collapse in Britain offers a glimpse of our own future - and a chance to prevent it.
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Monday, January 18, 2010
Ernst and Young ITEM Club UK Inflation, Interest Rates and GDP Growth Forecasts 2010 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Ernst & Young ITEM Club issued their forecasts for key UK economic indicators today including UK GDP growth, Interest rates and CPI inflation for 2010.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast 2010 and 2011, The Stealth Election Boom / News_Letter / UK Economy
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterDecember 31st, 2009 Issue #96 Vol. 3
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Saturday, December 26, 2009
UK Unemployment, Claimant Count Drop Surprises Academic Economists / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the next in a series of analysis as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario towards the formulation of 2010 forecasts for inflation, interest rates and economy. I aim to complete the whole scenario and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
GDP and Consumer Spending Offer Hope / Economics / UK Economy
By: LiveCharts
In two days, sentiments on the economy have improved dramatically thanks to a pair of economic reports. Tuesday (November 24), the gross domestic product was said to have risen by 2.8 per cent from the second to the third quarter.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2009
UK Markets Look to Release of CPI Inflation Data / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
In the UK, the October consumer price indices are released and the first rise in the headline annual rate of CPI inflation for eight months is expected (to 1.6% from 1.1% in September). The range of the market consensus for today’s CPI reading is unusually large at 1% to 1.7%, underscoring the point that the near-term picture for UK inflation is particularly uncertain in the midst of a high volatility period. We expect this feature to persist during the early part of 2010, when we expect the standard rate of VAT to be restored to 17½% and the effects of the exchange rate and other energy base effects to cause prices to fluctuate markedly.
Monday, November 16, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Projected Scenarios For the Next 10 Years / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Last week in Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 I posted a chart and tables of what unemployment might look like in what is best described as an optimistic "muddle through" scenario with no recessions for another decade.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Sterling Pulls back on Weak Retail and Sales Ahead of UK GDP Data / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
Sterling pulled back from highs following disappointing UK retail sales numbers for September. Official data revealed that retail sales were flat on the month, in contrast to market expectations of a 0.5% rise. These figures feed into the first estimate of Q3 GDP, which we expect to show a small quarterly rise of 0.1%, the first positive outturn since Q1 2008.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Markets Look to UK October’s MPC Meeting Minutes and the Latest CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends survey / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
Perhaps unsurprisingly, US government bond and swap markets rallied sharply immediately after yesterday’s weak producer price and housing data. Both sets of numbers are highly relevant to the economic recovery process in the US. A housing market slowdown triggered the current economic and financial crisis and many are looking for the same sector to lead the US into durable economic recovery.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Mervyn King’s Comments Hit Sterling While Stocks Continue to Rise / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
Sterling faced considerable selling pressure this week following Bank of England Governor Mervyn King’s Treasury testimony on Tuesday. The Governor commented that the BoE were “looking at” possibly lowering the deposit rates paid to commercial banks on reserves although not mentioning negative interest rates. The resulting decline in yields at the short-end of the curve weighed on sterling and in particular EUR/GBP which closed the week at 0.9045 having broken through 0.90 for the first time since 14th May. All the G-10 currencies posted gains versus sterling.
Monday, September 14, 2009
UK Economic Productivity, Trends and Prospects / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
One of the key indicators of how well economies perform is productivity. Over the medium to long term, real income growth, and hence living standards, depend on how fast an economy can grow its output based on its labour and capital inputs. Those economies that perform well on this score tend to be those that are the most flexible and dynamic – i.e. those that have a high degree of skilled labour, undertake strong capital investment, employ a high proportion of their available workforce, and combine their labour and capital inputs in the most efficient manner.
Friday, August 07, 2009
Financial Markets And Economic Events for August 7th 2009 / Stock-Markets / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
The Bank of England's decision yesterday to expand its asset purchase
programme by £50bn to £175bn surprised the markets, but it
underlines the importance the MPC attaches to economic data in its
policy deliberations. In particular, although recent output indicators
have improved, the recession was deeper than previously thought,
implying an even larger degree of spare capacity in the economy.
Friday, June 12, 2009
UK Economy Promising Signs of Business Confidence Rises Again / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
Lloyds TSB Business Barometer ‘monthly snapshot’ for May shows:
Business confidence improved for the third consecutive month
Surge in number of firms expecting better business conditions this year
Firms regain faith in UK economic prospects
Trend in increasing confidence should continue through next few months
Thursday, June 11, 2009
UK Trade Deficit Widens to £3.0 Billion / Economics / UK Economy
By: ONS
The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was £3.0 billion in April, compared with the deficit of £2.7 billion in March (originally published as a deficit of £2.5 billion).
The surplus on trade in services was £4.0 billion, compared with a surplus of £3.8 billion in March.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Bankrupt Britain's Public Sector Double Dip Debt Recession on Deep Spending Cuts / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Andrew Lansley, the Shadow Health Secretary made the fatal mistake on Wednesday of telling the public the truth on Tory spending plans following the next election, which as we have seen by the expenses scandal is a big NO, NO when it comes to politicians. The truth that he soon backtracked upon was the fact that the Conservatives WILL make severe cuts in public spending of at least 10% across the board, regardless of the subsequent diatribe emanating out of the Conservative party to hide this fact.
Friday, June 05, 2009
UK Economy Set for Debt Fuelled Economic Recovery Into 2010 General Election / News_Letter / UK Economy
By: NewsLetter
June 4th, 2009 Issue #41 Vol. 3Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 25, 2009
Labour Attempts to Ignite UK Consumer Mini Boom as ONS Revises Retail Sales Methodology / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The ONS finally came clean to confirm that the retail sales statistics are inaccurate and that it had revised the methodology in the way it calculates retail sales data, the data revision has ironically resulted in a better than expected boost to retail sales for a rise of 0.9% for April 09. The boost in retail sales data is inline with other observed trends in many areas of the economy which are feeding through towards a summer bounce in sectors of the economy such as for house prices in response to unprecedented actions of zero interest rates, 12% budget deficit spending and printing £150 billion out of thin air to buy government bonds and thus force down longer term interest rates.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Bank of England Inflation Report May 09, Governor Mervyn King Statement / Economics / UK Economy
By: BoE
Mervyn King writes: Over the past year the world economic and financial system has received emergency treatment. At home Bank Rate has fallen almost to zero, there has been a fiscal stimulus and hundreds of billions of pounds have been directed to supporting and resolving the banking system. Now the economy requires a period of healing. That will take time.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Darling's Wishful Thinking Budget is Bad News for Gilts / Economics / UK Economy
By: MoneyWeek
Rats are usually the first to abandon a sinking ship. But in Britain, it seems the rats are only too happy to stick around. According to Bloomberg, rats are "thriving, with shuttered shops and half-built housing sites to live in, rotting piles of uncollected garbage for dinner, and fewer exterminators sent out to kill them." The rat population has grown by 13% this year, to more than 50m, reckons Peter Crowden, head of the National Pest Technicians Association.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Economic Downturn Hits UK Public Finances / Economics / UK Economy
By: Lloyds_TSB
Overview
UK Budget 2009 announcements were as grim as
expected. Official borrowing will reach over 12%
of the economy in the current financial year, or £175bn. It will fall only slightly in 2010/11 to £173bn, and to 11.9% of the economy if the official
forecast of 1.25% growth for 2010 proves correct.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Britain's Great Depression? / News_Letter / UK Economy
By: NewsLetter
February 17th , 2009 Issue #13 Vol. 3The purpose of this analysis is to map out to the trend of the UK recession for 2009 and 2010 in terms of depth, the bottom and the potential recovery. The most recently released GDP data shows that the UK economy actually did fall off of the edge of a cliff during the fourth quarter of 2008 by contracting by a shocking 1.5% GDP. This compares against the governments recent forecast for 2% GDP contraction for the whole of 2009 which paints a picture of gross under estimation of the actual extent of the degree of economic contraction that is taking place at this time, and hence the adoption of the easy going terminology of "Quantative Easing" to hide the truth of money printing on a scale that could bankrupt Britain, the evidence of which has been played out in the currency markets with sterling's fall to a 23 year low against the dollar, a fall of over 30% in barely 6 months.
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Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Gordon Brown Bankrupting Britain as Tax Payer Liabilities Soar- Update / Politics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis presents the current status of Britain's path towards bankruptcy which I first pointed out in April 2008 which followed the Bank of England's initial offering of a £50 billion slush fund to the banks that would never be repaid and marked the tip of the bank bailout ice-berg.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 20, 2009
UK Public Sector Contraction to Trigger Double Dip Recession / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My recent indepth analysis and forecast of the UK economy for the period 2009 to 2010 concluded that the UK is heading for GDP contraction of 6.3%, and will start to bounce from a 4th quarter 2009 low of -4.75% GDP into the end of 2010. This recovery is expected to be followed by further weakness due to the scale of government borrowing generated in advance of the 2010 general election. On further analysis of the prospects post 2010 suggesting that 2011 and 2012 economic weakness may be as a consequence of a Public Sector Recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
UK Retail Sales Bounce Out of Deflation on Deep Discounting / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Headline retail sales bounced strongly in December rising by 2% to an annualised 3.7% as distressed retailers slashed margins on stock to avert bankruptcy amidst price cutting in the wake of heavily discounted stock in the closing down sales of major retailers such as Woolworth's , Zavvi and Adams, that collectively account for some 50,000 jobs. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
UK Retail Price Deflation Will Soon Give Way to Inflation / Economics / UK Economy
By: MoneyWeek
Sales on the high street were surprisingly strong in January, reports the British Retail Consortium. Retailers saw their strongest sales growth in more than six months, beating gloomy City forecasts.
So is it time to go out and stock up on retail shares? Sadly not. Let's take a closer look at the figures...
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
British Pound Panic Selling, Counting Down to Bankrupt Britain / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The British Pound continued to plunge to new lows in response to the latest step taken by Gordon Brown in effectively bankrupting Britain to win the next election, which is to under-write the toxic bad debts with an another tax payer down payment of £200 billion. This is on top of the £800 billion already committed towards the bailout of the banking sector that began in September 2007 with the initial £2 billion emergency loan to Northern Rock Bank. As you can see we have come a long way from £2 billion in September 2007 to today's £1 trillion, a truly huge number that amounts to £34,000 per UK tax payer, how much will it cost Britain to service such a liability? This is still but the early stages of Britain's road to bankruptcy and currency collapse as my earlier analysis pointed out in November 2008 -
Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation? Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for November as measured by the CPI continued its sharp decline, falling by 0.4% to 4.1% from the peak of 5.2% for Septembers data. The Bank of England would have been aware of the sharp fall in Octobers inflation at the earlier November MPC meeting that saw an near unprecedented panic interest rate cut of 1.5%, followed by a further 1% cut in December that has taken UK interest rates sharply lower from a peak of 5% in early October to stand at just 2% today. The interest rate cuts have been accompanied by BOE statements that UK economy is expected to contract by 2% GDP during 2009, that puts the UK on target to experience a worse recession than that of the early 1990's. However as my earlier analysis suggested that the UK could experience a decline of as much as 3% for 2009 which would make this recession just as bad if not worse than that of the early 1980's which wiped out much of Britain's manufacturing base. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
UK Unemployment Breaks above 2 million During December / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK unemployment crept up by 39,000 for September to 1.864 million, and remains on target to break above 2 million on release of data for December 2008. The unemployment claimant count surged in November by nearly 10% to 1.056 million, up 86,000 on the month and confirming that the pace of unemployment is fast accelerating which compares against Octobers rise of 25,000 and September's rise of just 20,000. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
UK Real Retail Sales Deflation Continues as Woolworths Goes Bust / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest retail sales data released by the ONS shows UK retail sales showing a surprise rose of 0.4 for November and up 1.7% on a year earlier, however a deeper analysis of the data reveals that the data for October was revised lower on the retail sales indices from 140 down to 139.7, and therefore the index of 140.1 for November is just 0.1 higher on the original data rather than that which the mainstream press is running with as positive sign as the below graph illustrates.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
UK Economy Nosedives Pointing to Much Lower Sterling and Interest Rates / Economics / UK Economy
By: Victoria_Marklew
The economic news out of the UK is ever more grim. Today was the turn of employment and retail sales. Claimant count unemployment surged by 75,700 last month, taking the number of unemployed by this measure past the psychologically-important one million mark for the first time since 2001. The broader ILO-basis jobless rate rose from 5.8% in the three months to September, to 6.0% in August-October. As unemployment is usually a lagging indicator, the fact that jobs are being shed at this fast a pace this early in the economic downturn points to a harsh year ahead for employment. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Britain Trending Towards Bankruptcy and Hyper-inflation? / News_Letter / UK Economy
By: NewsLetter
November 28th , 2008 Issue #40 Vol. 2The mainstream media is increasingly full of stories of either Britain going bankrupt or the coming deflation associated with the recession. Whilst both are now obvious given the economic data and government actions however what is missing from the headlines is that under the weight of the exploding public sector debt mountain, deflation will fast turn towards hyper-inflation as the government literally prints money in ever more panic measures aimed at turning the economy around. Many of the readers of my articles over the last year at Market Oracle will have seen this trend unfold as sustainable amounts of borrowing exploded into unsustainable liabilities due to the collapse of the bankrupt banks. Therefore this article seeks to analyse how Britain has come to towards an increased risk of bankruptcy and what action can be taken to avoid a currency collapse that is the consequences of state bankruptcy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Bankrupting Britain to Win the Next Election? / News_Letter / UK Economy
By: NewsLetter
November 24th , 2008 Issue #39 Vol. 2Alistair Darling's emergency tax cutting budget revealed the true extent of anticipated government borrowing that looks set to take official public sector next debt smashing through £1 trillion, this despite the fact that the official data ignores the £500 billion bailout of the banks. The government also announced fantasy growth forecasts that stated that UK GDP growth would return to trend growth of 2.5% per annum by 2011, this leaves more probable forecast growth rates of 0.6% for 2010 far behind and opens up a potential black hole in Britain's finances that implies that actual official government borrowing will be some 50% higher than today's electioneering budget's forecasts. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
British Economy in Deep Trouble Sterling to Suffer / Economics / UK Economy
By: MoneyWeek
Hopes that Barack Obama's 'New Deal' spending spree can save the global economy saw share prices bounce sharply yesterday.
The FTSE 100 ended more than 6% higher, climbing 250 points to 4,300.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 28, 2008
Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream media is increasingly full of stories of either Britain going bankrupt or the coming deflation associated with the recession. Whilst both are now obvious given the economic data and government actions however what is missing from the headlines is that under the weight of the exploding public sector debt mountain, deflation will fast turn towards hyper-inflation as the government literally prints money in ever more panic measures aimed at turning the economy around. Many of the readers of my articles over the last year at Market Oracle will have seen this trend unfold as sustainable amounts of borrowing exploded into unsustainable liabilities due to the collapse of the bankrupt banks. Therefore this article seeks to analyse how Britain has come to towards an increased risk of bankruptcy and what action can be taken to avoid a currency collapse that is the consequences of state bankruptcy.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Keynes, Gold and Jubilee 1935 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Adrian_Ash
"With John Maynard Keynes feted by governments once more, would you dare to guess how desperate things must become before a true revolution in policy becomes possible...?
THE SUN SHONE BRIGHTLY on London for the silver jubilee of King George V as if to spite him. For it rarely smiled on his reign.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Financial Crisis Thanksgiving in America / Politics / UK Economy
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Collectively and individually, we all learn through crises. But only after a crisis is over do we recognize the lessons learned and become thankful for the fundamental and needed changes such crises bring. When this crisis is over, we too will be thankful for its gifts. But this crisis is not yet over. It has only just begun.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2008
UK Government Debt to Double, Tax Rises to Follow Tax Cuts / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Alistair Darling's emergency tax cutting budget revealed the true extent of anticipated government borrowing that looks set to take official public sector next debt smashing through £1 trillion, this despite the fact that the official data ignores the £500 billion bailout of the banks. The government also announced fantasy growth forecasts that stated that UK GDP growth would return to trend growth of 2.5% per annum by 2011, this leaves more probable forecast growth rates of 0.6% for 2010 far behind and opens up a potential black hole in Britain's finances that implies that actual official government borrowing will be some 50% higher than today's electioneering budget's forecasts.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2008
UK Emergency Tax Cuts to Get Consumers Spending / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Later today, Alistair Darling the Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to announce a series of emergency tax cuts aimed specifically at consumers to get them spending again as the retail sales market falls off the edge of the cliff following hard on the heels of the crash in the banking system that required an emergency £500 billion bailout to prevent a catastrophic collapse of the financial system. This was followed by an emergency 1.5% interest rate cut at the November Bank of England MPC meeting and therefore sets the continuing scene of emergency near panic actions aimed at two primary goals.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 22, 2008
British Pound Crashes to New Lows as Economy Heads for Deep Recession / News_Letter / UK Economy
By: NewsLetter
November 13th , 2008 Issue #37 Vol. 2The foreign exchange markets are witnessing heavy and sustained selling of sterling which continues following the Bank of England's inflation report and statement on the economy. The British Pound has fallen below £/$1.50 to currently stand at 149.12, and to a new low against the Euro of 119. The fast developing sterling crisis illustrates the systemic failure of the Bank of England and Labour Government to manage both the economy and the credit crisis and marks another marker following last weeks panic interest rate cut of 1.5%, as the government took control of monetary policy back from the Bank of England and effectively ordered the Bank to cut interest rates by 1.5% despite inflation hitting 5.2%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 20, 2008
UK Real Retail Sales Deflationary Trend Continues / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The official monthly retail sales data again demonstrated the inbuilt trend inaccuracy by reporting just a 0.1% drop for October 2008, up 2% on the year and in the face of the UK economy slumping fast into recession. Whilst the mainstream media mistakenly jumps on the smaller than expected decline, I refer readers to the two graphs below, one of the official retail sales data and the second of the inflation indexed and trend adjusted retail sales which more accurately reflects the current true state of distressed retailers than the month to month gyrations of official data that proves so confusing to mainstream market watchers. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
British Pound Crashes to New Lows as Economic Crisis Deepens / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The foreign exchange markets are witnessing heavy and sustained selling of sterling which continues following the Bank of England's inflation report and statement on the economy. The British Pound has fallen below £/$1.50 to currently stand at 149.12, and to a new low against the Euro of 119. The fast developing sterling crisis illustrates the systemic failure of the Bank of England and Labour Government to manage both the economy and the credit crisis and marks another marker following last weeks panic interest rate cut of 1.5%, as the government took control of monetary policy back from the Bank of England and effectively ordered the Bank to cut interest rates by 1.5% despite inflation hitting 5.2%. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
UK Unemployment to Soar above 2 Million for Christmas / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest UK unemployment data released today showed unemployment soared by 140,000 in the 3 months to August, up 33,000 on the month and the number officially claiming unemployment benefit rose by 25,600 in October to 970,000. This was followed by the Bank of England's report on inflation and the economy that stated that UK is heading for 2% GDP contraction for 2009 which is significant change to the existing forecasts of growth for 2009. With a three month lag in published data, the actual unemployment rate looks set to pass above 2 million by Christmas to be released in March 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
UK Economic Slump Accelerates towards Recession / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK economy battered and bruised by the fallout from the financial crisis as bankrupt banks sought a huge £500 billion bailout form the UK tax payer, was further hit today by the continuing contraction of Britain's industrial base as UK factory production continued to fall by 0.8% for a seven straight month, which acts as further confirmation of an imminent deep recession. The slump in sterling of 25% has been voiced as a boost to Britain's export sector, however clearly this is not happening as the already diminished industrial sector continues to shrink and therefore even if the crash in sterling does boost exports, the impact on the overall economy is expected to be muted as the industrial export sector has shrunk to less than 4% of the economy, whilst the huge financial services sector in terms of % of GDP continues to implode.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
UK Unemployment Soars by 10%, Forecast to Rise to 2.5 million / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK unemployment as measured by the labour market survey surged to 1.79 million, up 164,000 for the quarter to July 2008, which clearly does not take into account the economic meltdown since August 08, nor the subsequent financial sector crash that witnessed bank after bank go bust and falling into the arms of the state or state sponsored rescue packages both of which are resulting in huge job losses in the financial sector. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Voter Backlash Coming Against Labour Government Economic Incompetence / Politics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst Gordon Brown continues to enjoy and revel in the financial armageddon bounce, that looks set to ensure that the leadership challenge has been delayed until September 2009. However as the UK economy plunges into recession increasingly voters will become outraged at the Labour party effectively doubling the national debt by an additional £500 billion of which at least £90 billion is money lost, never to be recovered. After all this is what socialism is all about i.e. to stop bankrupt companies from going bust, whilst ratcheting up enormous amounts of debt. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
US Economic Data and Events for October 15th, 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Day In Review:
• US announces $250bln plan to rescue banking system and FDIC stated it would fully guarantee newly issued, senor unsecured debt from select banks
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
LIBOR Interbank Money Market Earthquake Signals UK Debt Recession / Interest-Rates / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The LIBOR interbank money market rates have FAILED to respond to the co-ordinated and unprecedented interest rate cuts across the world by key central banks which includes the U.S. Fed, Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB), in conjunction with extra liquidity and in Britain's case a bank bailout package that could total as much as £500 billion or 41% of GDP which is on par with the amounts as a percentage of GDP the United States required to recover from the 1930's Great Depression. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 18, 2008
UK Retail Sales Rise 1.2%, Real Retail Sales Fall 1.3% / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The official monthly retail sales data again demonstrated the inbuilt trend inaccuracy by reporting a 1.2% rise in August 2008, up 3.4% on the year and in the face of the UK economy slumping fast into recession. Whilst the mainstream media mistakenly concentrates on explaining why retail sales rose, I refer readers to the below two graphs, one of the official retail sales data and the second of the inflation indexed and trend adjusted retail sales which more accurately reflects the current true state of distressed retailers than the wild month to month gyrations of official data that literally switch between boom and bust statistics on a monthly basis.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
UK Hiring Intentions Lowest In 9 Years: Manpower / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Hiring Intentions Lowest In 17 Years I spoke on the Job situation in the US.This post is about job prospects in the UK and worldwide. Please consider UK Jobs outlook weakest for nine years .
The outlook for the UK jobs market is the weakest for almost a decade with employers freezing new recruitment as business confidence plummets, according to worldwide research published on Tuesday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 07, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 8-12) / Economics / UK Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of September 8-12 will see a heavy week of US macro data. Inflation will be at the forefront with import prices and producer prices released on Thursday and Friday, while the advance retail sales estimate for August to close out the week figures to be the primary market moving release of the week. The week will kick off with the Tuesday publication of the July pending home sales release. The majority of the data for the week will be published on Thursday, which will also see the release of the July trade balance, weekly jobless claims and US monthly budget statement. Friday will also see the publication of the University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for September.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Chancellor Darling Pushes Crumbling British Economy Over the Edge / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gordon Browns Darling chancellor finally showed signs of cracking-up at the week-end as the strain of continually toeing Gordon Browns party line of ignoring the financial and economics fundamentals by painting a repetitively bright picture for the British economy and financial system finally got to him.
He commented: "Economic times are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years… I think it's going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought".
All Gordon Brown could respond with was "Et tu brutus", as his premierships final days fast resemble a shakespearean tragedy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 01, 2008
Darling Says UK in Worst Economic Crisis for 60 Years / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Telegraph is reporting Britain in grip of worst economic crisis for 60 years, admits Alistair Darling . Britain is in the grip of its worst economic crisis for 60 years, Alistair Darling has admitted.The Chancellor of the Exchequer warns that the slump is going to be "more profound and long-lasting than people thought".
In an astonishingly frank interview, Mr Darling admits that voters are "p***** off" with Labour and says the party must recover the "zeal" which won it three successive general elections. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Bank of England's Worthless 2% 2Year CPI Inflation Forecasts / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England's in depth 48 page quarterly inflation report published yesterday concludes with the forecast for UK CPI inflation to be at 2% in 2 years time. Since the Bank of England first adopted the 2% CPI inflation target back in 2003, the Bank has perpetually made the same forecast for 2% CPI in two years time, and nearly always missed the target by a wide margin. Clearly there is something wrong in the banks procedures which appears to deliver the motions of generating paper work such as the 48 page report, followed by pats on the back rather than an effective response to the failure to meet the Banks primary objective.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
US Economic Wealth Last Chance Saloon Rant / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mick_Phoenix
What a feckin mess we are in. Yea how the mighty have fallen, whom those that expect wealth see only ruin, how the public will bail out the profligate. Welcome to the incredibly horrible world I have foreseen and how Eggertsson got it so right but how the endgame is so wrong for Joe Public. You think the Mogambo Guru has a deep bunker of absolute denial (MBDBOD)? Well I'll let you into a secret, the fecker is digging wayyyyyy higher in the earths crust than I am. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
UK Economy Sharp Slowdown on Q2 GDP of 0.2% / Economics / UK Economy
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's preliminary Q2 GDP report from the UK showed real growth slowing to 0.2% on the quarter and 1.6% on the year, the weakest in three years and down from 0.3% and 2.3%, respectively, in Q1. A marked fall in construction output, the result of weakness in private house building, was largely to blame - down 0.7% on the quarter. However, the slowdown in the dominant service sector was also notable, with growth of just 0.4% on the quarter and 2.1% on the year, the weakest annual growth in 16 years.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2008
Britain in Freefall as Economy, Housing Market and Labour Votes Crash / Politics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Labour lost the Glasgow East by-election in the early hours of this morning which was the third safest Labour seat in Scotland.This was by far the worst election result in Labour's history and suggests a collapse in Labour's vote and thus puts Gordon Browns Premiership in the firing line, strongly suggesting an leadership challenge will occur this year possibly at Septembers party conference. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
UK Retail Sales Worst Slump in 20 Years Surprises Market Commentators / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Retail Sales for June fell by a record 3.9% inline with the evidence of a rapidly slowing UK economy which is hitting the retail sector hard. Many mainstream market commentators have been taken by surprise by the released data as it follow hard on the heels of Mays surprise jump of 3.4% which was taken by many commentators at the time as the signs of a mini high street spending boom despite mounting evidence of a distressed retail sector which has witnessed literally crashing share prices on the back of earnings warnings as witnessed by Marks and Spencer's 20% crash at the start of this month. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
UK Economy Heading for Recession 2009, All Gloom and Doom? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What a difference a few weeks can make as if out of the blue the UK is headed for a deep dark recession as per headlines gripping the mainstream press of late. Whereas the fact of the matter is that none of this has appeared out of the blue, articles at the Market Oracle both penned by myself and others have laid the precise time-line for events long before the current doom and gloom headlines appeared. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Brown Breaks Another Golden Rule, Real UK Debt Above 40% of GDP / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Following abandoning of the rule for a balanced budget over an economic cycle, which was broken more than two years ago and followed by repeat manipulation of the start date of the economic cycle and has since been quietly forgotten from Treasury statements. Now the next golden unbreakable rule for economic competence that Gordon's Darling is busy reconstructing for the electorate to swallow is that Government debt must remain below 40% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Bank of England: Caught Between Inflation and Recession / Economics / UK Economy
By: Victoria_Marklew
As expected, the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.0% this morning, despite the fact that May's annual rate of inflation hit 3.3%. This was the highest since the BoE won full independence over monetary policy in 1997, and caused BoE Governor King to have to write an open letter to Chancellor Darling last month explaining why CPI is more than one full percentage point over the Bank's 2.0% target. But, as King pointed out, while inflation is likely to remain above target for some months yet, there is also a downside risk that the economy will slow sharply and pull CPI below target in two years. The past few days have certainly brought mounting evidence of a marked slowdown, with some analysts starting to whisper of the risk of recession. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 06, 2008
UK Economy Slams Into Reverse as Retailers Experience Sales Hell / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Independent is reporting Seven days that shook the British high street . It was a week that most retailers would probably prefer to forget – seven days that shook the high street. From the grandest names to the most minor, the news has been uniformly grim. Yesterday, the mighty John Lewis reported that its sales are running 9 per cent down on last year. Marks & Spencer, still Britain's leading clothes retailer, warned on Wednesday of sharply lower sales and profits, and promptly saw a quarter of its stock-market value wiped out.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 04, 2008
US Metalworking Business Index Trends Point to Economic Contraction / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Steve Kline who produces the Metalworking Business Index survey, shared an email with me from a correspondent who wanted to raise capital to expand, but could not get the loan. Let's take a look.
Steve,
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
UK Manufacturing Output Contracts Sharply as House Prices Plunge / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yesterday I reported Deflationary Hurricanes to Hit U.S. and U.K. Confirmation that the U.K. is about to follow the U.S. in recession is at hand.Bloomberg is reporting U.K. Manufacturing Contracts Most Since 2001 .
U.K. manufacturing contracted in June by the most since 2001, a sign higher credit costs and soaring commodity prices are bringing the economy closer to a recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
UK Retail Sales High Street Boom- The Truth Behind the Headlines / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In the midst of the worst economic conditions in nearly 20 years, May saw retail sales soar by a surprising annualised rate of 8.1%, the highest rate in 20 years, up 3.4% for the month. The surge is more akin to that expected during boom times rather than the bust that the UK is fast heading towards. The mainstream media immediately seized on the headline rate to announce Britain is experiencing a mini high street spending boom. However looking behind the headline figures tells a different story.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecasts Continue to be Revised Lower for 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The OECD, Inline with many economic forecasting organisations have in recent months revised UK growth forecasts lower, today the OECD announced that UK growth for 2008 is expected to be 1.8% against 2% in Dec 07, and growth for 2009 to fall to 1.4%.
The organisation cited the weakening housing market and the tight credit conditions for the the lower growth forecast and urged the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold to help curb rising inflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 11, 2008
UK Manipulated Inflation Statistics Erodes Value of Savings / Economics / UK Economy
By: Adrian_Ash
"...A short-back and sides for the value of Sterling – Trim, trim! Snip, snip...!"
"ON THE DOWNSIDE," said the Bank of England when it trimmed UK interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, "the disruption in financial markets could lead to a slowdown in the economy sufficiently sharp to pull inflation below target."
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 14, 2008
UK Trade Goods Data 2007- Exports Fell by 10%, Imports Rose by 2% / Economics / UK Economy
By: HMRC
UK Regional Trade in Goods estimates are released today, for the fourth quarter of 2007 .
• Total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 was £218,919m.
• The total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 fell by £24,902m (10 per cent) compared to the 12 months ending December 2006.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
Public Sector Pay to Cripple the UK Economy During 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The unproductive public sector renowned for demanding unrealistic pay hikes whilst at the same time failing to deliver competitiveness and anticipated output, looks set to go to war against Gordon Browns government during 2008. Which is already expected to be the worst year for jobs in a decade.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 24, 2007
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast for 2008 - NO Recession / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK economy is being hit hard by the ongoing credit crunch with its sizable financial sector under strain and the UK housing market finally showing signs of the long anticipated downturn after one of the biggest bull runs in history. These and much other bad news will undoubtedly hit the UK economy hard during 2008, and in advance of this the media has finally turned decidedly bearish with much speculation of a recession during 2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 16, 2007
US Is a Nation of Subprime Consumers - Foreign Exporters To Reduce US Exposure / Economics / UK Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
When home prices skyrocketed in the early part of this decade, everyone seemed to forget that the subprime borrowers were high risk by definition. Now that losses are snowballing, lenders are belatedly rethinking the “wisdom” of making such loans in the first place. Similar conclusions will soon be reached by foreign nations that have supplied American consumers with goods that they can not afford. In reality, America is a nation of subprime consumers.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Bank of England Warning Over UK Economy - Stagflation Risk During 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mervyn King, the Bank of England Governor belatedly recognised that the credit crunch is likely to strongly impact the UK Economy during 2008 resulting in a sharp slowdown accompanied by rising inflation going into 2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Impact of the Credit Crunch on UK Borrowers Debt Mountain Going into 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The credit crunch originally sparked by hedge funds in June going bellie up due to US subprime exposure, quickly spread to a freeze of the interbank money markets during July 07, and resulted in the first run on a UK bank for 150 years during September. The contagion has continued to spread with magnitude of the problem having grown from just $2 billions to now more than $1 trillion. With this inability to value debt packages leading to ever tighter lending requirements across the credit markets. This article evaluates the real impact of the credit crunch on the UK borrowers.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Strong UK Consumer Spending Suggests No Cut in UK Interest Rates This Year / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Retail sales figures for September rose more strongly than market expectations, rising by 0.6% against forecasts of just a 0.1% rise which takes the annual rate to 6.3%, the highest in 3 years.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 14, 2007
The Rest of the World is going to Rejuvenate the US Economy? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The “core” U.S. economy is doing fine. That is, if you exclude consumer spending, business capital goods spending and housing – almost 85% of U.S. real GDP – the outlook is rosy inasmuch as exports will surely surge because of the strong economic growth in the rest of the world. Other than the fact that exports are only about 11-1/2% of real GDP, a record high, there are other problems with depending on the rest of the world to be America's economic locomotive.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 28, 2007
US Economic Growth Slowing To Stall Speed / Economics / UK Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Real gross domestic product of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of only 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, the slowest pace in four years. On a year-to-year basis, real GDP increased 2.1% in the first quarter, the smallest gain since the second quarter of 2003.
The U.S. economy is essentially stalling out with the downside risks of economic growth today being larger than at the March FOMC meeting.
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Thursday, April 19, 2007
Iraq War, Inflation and War Finance / Politics / UK Economy
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
The Pentagon recently reported that it now spends roughly $8.4 billion per month waging the war in Iraq, while the additional cost of our engagement in Afghanistan brings the monthly total to a staggering $10 billion. Since 2001, Congress has spent more than $500 billion on specific appropriations for Iraq. This sum is not reflected in official budget and deficit figures. Congress has funded the war by passing a series of so-called "supplemental" spending bills, which are passed outside of the normal appropriations process and thus deemed off-budget.
This is fundamentally dishonest: if we're going to have a war, let's face the costs-- both human and economic-- squarely. Congress has no business hiding the costs of war through accounting tricks.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Consumers reveal the truth about UK Inflation / ConsumerWatch / UK Economy
By: Fool.co.uk
The Government grossly underestimates inflation figures according to new findings of an online survey* by independent personal finance website Fool.co.uk
Consumers say inflation is 7.4% not 2.7%
- Inflation hurts older people most
- Men and women feel the affects of inflation differently
- Yorkshire experiences the lowest rate of inflation
Sunday, November 05, 2006
UK Insolvency rise by 55% and on target to hit a record 100,000 for 2006 As interest rates are due to rise to 5% ! / Economics / UK Economy
By: Sarah_Jones
Last week, Government figures showed that a record 27,644 people went insolvent during the summer - more than 55% up on the same period last year and leaving the UK on target to hit 100,000 insolvencies in 2006 for the first time.
The figures sparked fears of dark times for retailers as debt ridden consumers are expected to tighten their belts in the run-up to Christmas. The seasonally adjusted personal insolvency increased 55.4 per cent on a year ago and 5.7 per on the previous quarter. Bankruptcies at 15,416, up 26.6 per cent compared with a year ago, but Individual Voluntary Arrangements soared to 12,228, up 117.9 per cent on last year and 9.8 per cent on the previous quarter. House repossessions are likely to exceed 12,000 this year and that 38 per cent of all bankrupts were now unemployed.
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Sunday, October 15, 2006
Prospects for UK Economy during 2007 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Sarah_Jones
UK economic growth picks up during 2006, after the slowdown during 2005, and is expected to rise to 2.25% this year (1.9% 2005) and 2.5% in 2007 though the Treasury is forecasting higher growth at 2.5% for 2006 and 3% for 2007.
The risks are that inflation rises to 3%, which would trigger a serious of sharp rate rises. This is a possibility given that domestic inflation far exceeds imported inflation, and thus inflation is less likely to be impacted by declining oil prices.
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Thursday, September 14, 2006
Retail Sales Surge ensures another rate rise this year / Interest-Rates / UK Economy
By: Sarah_Jones
High Street spending rose strongly in August, to 4.3% despite the August rate rise, which strongly increases the likelihood of another rate rise this year.
There are also signs that the china factor is coming to an end i.e. the price deflation that the high street has enjoyed for several years. Interest rates will now likely rise in November 2006 as the pressures on inflation remain in an economy running near full capacity.
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