Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
Geithner's Debt Dialogue With China, but the U.S. Dollar May Still be Doomed / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:Two days of talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Chinese officials culminated yesterday (Tuesday) with both parties reaffirming their confidence in the value of the dollar, and the viability of U.S. debt.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Geithner & China on U.S. Treasury Bonds Sales Trip: Who Are You Fooling? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Axel_Merk
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s trip to Asia has been heralded as a sales trip aimed at convincing the Chinese to keep buying U.S. Treasuries and thereby finance U.S. deficits. Such headlines are, in my humble opinion, an insult to the Chinese. Over and over again, we fall victim of the temptation to believe that Chinese leaders act in a vacuum, dictating policies out of a closet. Chinese leaders know very well the state of the Chinese, the U.S., and the world economy; they don’t need a sales pitch. So what’s the purpose of Geithner’s trip then?
Monday, June 01, 2009
Fed Credibility Bubble Bursts as Too Big to Fail General Motors Goes Bankrupt / InvestorEducation / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: General Motors used to be among the giant companies widely considered “too big to fail.”
Almost all of Wall Street said a GM bankruptcy was “unthinkable.” Most Americans didn’t even consider it as a real possibility. And as recently as February, outgoing and incoming administration officials were still insisting they would never let it happen.
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Monday, June 01, 2009
U.S. Bond Market Vigilantes Demand Higher Interest Rates / InvestorEducation / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin here with a quick note to give you a unique perspective on what’s happening right now.
For many months, we’ve warned that Washington does NOT have a blank check to fight this crisis; there’s a limit to how much Washington can borrow and spend without serious consequences.
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Monday, June 01, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Oversold, Strong Seasonal Influences Supportive of a Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market sold off another three and a half points during the course of last week before managing to recover to almost unchanged for the week. It was one of the strangest weeks of trading activity that I have seen in a long time. While the economic data offered no major surprises to drive substantial moves in yields, the focus appeared to be on the Treasury auction calendar.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
U.S.Treasury Bonds in the Eye of the Financial Storm / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The U.S. Treasury bond market has become the focal point of financial markets for the past several trading days. And when Treasury bonds move, so does the dollar.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Treasury Bond TLT ETF Rallying / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
It is interesting that the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) is rallying with the commodity sector today. Yes, the TLTs are very oversold, so let’s not read too much into today’s strength. However, I am suspicious that the strength just might be a reflection of anticipated Fed activity and buying interest in the long end – to prevent a back-up in mortgage rates and/or a derailment of fledgling economic recovery regardless of an increase in inflationary perceptions.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Massacred; Yield Curve Steepest On Record / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bernanke cannot have his cake and eat it too. If the economy is recovering the yield curve should steepen. And steepen it has. The Yield Curve Is Steepest On Record.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Quantitative Easing Pushes U.S. Treasury Bonds Into Secular Bear Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
A monthly close over 3.432% confirms the secular trend change in the 10 year Treasury bond that I have been expecting and writing about for over 6 months. I am expecting yields pressures to persist for the next 12 months.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Memorial Day Disaster, Foreigners Dumping Dollar Assets, Stocks & Bonds / Stock-Markets / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: This would normally be my time for a quiet Memorial Day at home.
But even as we seek calm, investors overseas are doing precisely the opposite.
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Monday, May 25, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond market Severely Damaged / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was severely damaged last week. The theme from my previous note about the continued deterioration of the credit quality of government bonds and the consequent increase in real yields is certainly coming to fruition in swift fashion. It all started on Wednesday when the Standard and Poor’s rating agency issued a credit watch (with negative implications – i.e. potential downgrade from the best available AAA rating) for bonds issued by the United Kingdom – also known as Gilts.
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Sunday, May 24, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Collapsing Now! / InvestorEducation / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: My mission is to worry so you don’t have to.
And I’ve never been more worried than I am right now. At the same time, though, I’m also more excited than ever about your opportunities to grow your wealth.
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Friday, May 22, 2009
Triple-A Credit Rating or Bond Markets Bust? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andy_Sutton
If you take a short walk down memory lane, it will not take you very long to find the carcass of New Century Financial along the side of the road back in March 2007. It would be a full 12 months before the word recession would be mentioned in the US mainstream media and stock markets would roar into their all-time highs six months after the disintegration of New Century. Much of the early portion of the credit crisis as it was called focused on mortgages and after that, mortgage-backed securities. Wow, haven’t heard that term in a while, have we?
Friday, May 22, 2009
Investors Should Seek Maximum Safety in U.S. Treasury Bill ETF's / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Ron Rowland writes: I’ve just finished reading Martin’s new book, The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide. I highly recommend it. Martin says — and he’s exactly right — that the safest place in the world for your money is U.S. Treasury bills. In his book you’ll find a very handy list of money market funds that invest strictly in short-term Treasury securities: No commercial paper, bank notes, or other risky bonds.
Friday, May 22, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bear Market Picking Up Steam? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pollaro
At the risk of repeating myself, this author is bearish on long dated US Treasuries. Yes, despite the best efforts of the Fed to monetize the federal government’s ballooning borrowing needs and hold long rates at bay, this author is bearish on long dated US Treasuries.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Barrons on U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Bursting / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
This is the second cover story in 5 months for Barron's on the bursting of the bubble in Treasury yields. I have been closely following the yield on the 10 year Treasury since December, 2008, and I would agree that Treasury yields are ripe for a secular trend change. However, this won't be confirmed until there is a monthly close over 3.43% in yield.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Recovery from Deeply Oversold Levels / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market recovered from deeply oversold levels last week. Former support at 3% on the 10 Year Treasury Note will be the first major resistance level to watch. The yield curve on the other hand maintained its steepness as yields declined across the maturity spectrum. The economic data might look good from far but it is far from good so the main concern for the bond market is not an imminent recovery but a continued deterioration of the credit quality of government bonds as more and more of the excesses of this enormous credit bubble continue to migrate from the private to the public sector. Look for real yields to expand.
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Friday, May 15, 2009
Dangerous Treasury Bond Bubble / InvestorEducation / US Bonds
By: Marty_Chenard
As reported two weeks ago: spreads had been sending a caution sign for the risk of yields rising. That has been happening, and the 30 year yields are rising ...
Friday, May 15, 2009
Non-Existant U.S. Economic Recovery Bullish for Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Given that Bernanke's green shoots are withering on the vine it was a sure bet that someone else would find another feel good term to describe what is essentially not happening. That term is "pre-recovery".
Monday, May 11, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Break Below Short-term Support / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market gave up a major support level 2 weeks ago as the 10 Year Treasury Note moved decisively through 3%. Last week the bond market followed through with yields rising and prices falling further. The stocks for bonds switch also continued unabated. The yield curve also broke out of its trading range around 200 basis points to steepen toward the 230 level. Long term rates rose from 2.5% just before year end to 4.27% as of last weekend. That is a 71% rise in a little over 4 months. That is about double the measly 35% rise in the stock market. The record debt to GDP level maybe changing in its composition but it is not going away. Any “green-shoot” that might be fixing to sprout will be nipped in the bud by rising yields.
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