Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, February 01, 2018
US Treasury Yields Inflating? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Submissions
FundamentalsThe Herd is running into one direction. It is from bonds into stocks. The latest BAML Fund Manager report showed an intresting picture. Extreme flows have been recorded over the past couple of months relative to the past 12 years. That came on top of the fact that flows were at elevated levels throughout the past 14 months already.
The investment reasoning behind that gets confirmed by economic fundamentals. The US economy is expanding, retail sales have risen to all-time highs, unemployment is at a multidecade low, and new home sales look as good as they have never looked for the past 10 years.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2018
The Most Important Bond In the World Just Broke a 25 Year Downtrend / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The single most important bond in the world is the US 10-Year Treasury bond.
According to modern financial theory, this bond, with a duration that is meant to cover a full economic cycle, is generally considered the “risk free” rate of the return for the entire financial system.
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Tuesday, January 30, 2018
US Treasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Many are the metaphors used to describe the agent that initiates a major crisis. Light the fuse, or pull the trigger, pull the rug out from under the room, or pull on the string for unraveling the sweater, these are commonly heard. What comes soon is the Bonfire of the Vanities, a term the Jackass prefers since irony is thick. Hardly the burning of objects deemed as tempting toward occasions of sin as in the 15th Century. In the present-day case, the burning would be of the massive piles of paper assets the US Federal Reserve has been illicitly supporting for the past several years. The bonfire would be of falsely valued heaps of paper. If truth be known, the Quantitative Easing was put in place in 2012 when the big US banks were all in danger of failures. They required amplified liquidity infusions in order to prevent these giant silos of insolvency from entering financial failure. Their huge bond holdings were supported. Generally, when insolvency meets illiquidity, big failures occur. The USGovt and USFed colluded to prevent the entire set of Wall Street banks from failing like Lehman Brothers did. They all had the same ugly insolvent traits. Few tell the story correctly, but Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan suffocated Lehman to death. Lehman did not fail without help. Like Chief Justice Scalia, Lehman was suffocated in a bed of unpaid bond sales. What comes next is a nasty corrosive dangerous sequence of financial market crises, where pumped paper assets suffer notable declines. It will include the stock, bond, and currency markets. The last times all three suffered simultaneous declines was 1979 and 1987. Add soon 2018.
Sunday, January 14, 2018
Did China Just Burst the Everything Bubble? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The biggest news today comes from China, which has announced it will “slow or halt” US Treasury purchases.
This is the so-called NUCLEAR option: the threat by China to stop buying US debt. And it’s an absolute game-changer.
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Sunday, January 14, 2018
Bubble Watch: Both the Currency Markets and Bonds Markets See Inflation Coming / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
If you want to make money investing, you first need to understand the structure of the asset classes in our current financial system,
Everyone likes to go bonkers over stocks, but the reality is that the stock market is in fact one of the smallest and least liquid markets on the planet. All told, US stocks are roughly $26 trillion in market cap.
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Wednesday, January 10, 2018
TMV : 3X Leveraged Short on US Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rambus_Chartology
TMV is a 3 X short the TLT 20 year treasure bond etf. This trade is based on the TLT. For well over three years now the TLT has been building out what looks like a massive H&S top with the top of the right shoulder now in play. I’m going to take an initial position and buy 250 shares of TMV, 3 X short the TLT, and buy 250 shares at the market at 18.83 with the sell/stop on a daily close below the right shoulder low on the daily chart for the TMV at 17.35. I’m anticipating the the right shoulder high on the TLT will be the ultimate high. There will be several more entry points if this trades starts to workout.
Thursday, December 21, 2017
If You Want To Get Rich, Invest In T-Bills, Not FANGs Or Bitcoin / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : Demand curves are usually downward-sloping. That’s because people will buy more of a product when it is cheaper and less of it when it is more expensive.
Some things—like stocks and especially bitcoin—have upward-sloping demand curves, which should be theoretically impossible. But they happen in the real world. People really want bitcoin when it is expensive, but nobody was interested when it was cheap.
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Tuesday, November 21, 2017
US Bond Market Operation Twist by Another Name and Method? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
The TIP/IEF ‘inflation gauge’ is still motoring upward after breaking above the SMA 200. If this turns the 200 up along with the MA 50 it could indicate a mini hysteria about inflation.
Wednesday, November 08, 2017
If This Bond Market Line Breaks, We’re in Serious Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s talk about Junk Bonds.
Junk Bonds are corporate debt issued by companies that have a significant chance of defaulting (meaning they don’t pay you back).
Why would anyone want to lend these companies money?
Because these bonds are risky, they typically pay very large yields to compensate for the increased risk. Think yields of 8% or even 10%.
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Saturday, October 21, 2017
“Great Rotation” Ahead; Will it Be Inflationary or Deflationary? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
[edit] This article ultimately leans toward the view that the reasons for a rising curve will be inflationary. But I woke up in the middle of the night and my thoughts drifted to the components of the article (yeah, that’s pretty sad, I know), and with further consideration I am leaning toward neutral or even a bit into the deflationary camp. The reasons will be the stuff of another article.
Think back to the blaring headlines about the Great Promotion Rotation in the financial media in 2013. Perhaps the media circus started in January of that year when The Economist asked the question of whether the rise in bond yields signaled a “flight” out bonds and into equities. It was probably an earnest and right minded question asked by The Economist, but you know our friends in the greater financial media; get a good story and flog the hell out of it to harvest eyeballs. Reality be damned, man, it’s the eyeballs that matter!
Saturday, September 23, 2017
Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next?
On September 6, with the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) reaching a new low (33.32) in its 7-month corrective process, we noted that "Dec-Sep correction could be at or nearing a downside exhaustion."
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Thursday, September 07, 2017
Forecasting US 30-Year Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Francois_Soto
The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, etc.We predict the US Generic 30-Year Treasuries Yield using a selection of macroeconomic variables chosen from hundreds of time series available.
We trade US1 future contracts based on the differential between the regression output and the actual yield and this strategy is profitable.
Interest rates are an important monetary policy tool to gauge the state of the economy and for policy makers to act accordingly. Per its definition, it is the rate at which interest is paid by a borrower for the use of money. The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, consumption, etc.
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Sunday, July 09, 2017
Did Junk Bonds Just Signal the End to This Credit Cycle? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks are now in very serious trouble.
The S&P 500 has fallen to test its “election rally” trendline. If the market breaks down here, there’s essentially one giant “air pocket” down to 2,200 or so.
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Monday, July 03, 2017
NY Fed President Just Admitted Ignoring The Bond Market… I Have A Theory / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
Speaking at a Business Roundtable event, New York Fed President William Dudley reportedly expressed great confidence in both the economy and the Fed’s policy moves.
Dudley is not even slightly concerned about the Fed’s overshooting with its rate hikes. In fact, he is supremely confident that inflation will overshoot if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy.
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Tuesday, June 27, 2017
US Bonds and Related Market Indicators / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Excerpted from the June 25 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, which also included comprehensive analysis of US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and stock charts galore (with the Market Internals segment, in particular, having evolved into what I find to be a must-have guide).
TLT is now a buck from its target of 129. Tell me, where is all that mania about rising interest rates and the likes of the “R.I.P. Bond Bull Market” headlines (Bloomberg called the bottom almost to the day with that Louise Yamada hype). Now a mature bounce labors on. 129 does not need to stop the move, but it’s a long-standing marker, so…
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Monday, June 19, 2017
US Bonds and Related Market Indicators / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
The June 18 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole has a few less stock charts this week in order to ramp up the macro talk, which appeared periodically through the report; but especially in the Precious Metals and Bonds segments. Excerpted from NFTRH 452…
Bonds & Related Indicators (and more macro discussion)
The target for TLT continues to be around 129. Treasury bonds are in bull trends (remember back a few months ago to all the bond hatred in the media). How does an eventual decline in bonds square with what we just noted above regarding Q4 2008? [work done in the preceding Precious Metals segment] Treasury bonds were a wonderfully bullish asset during Armageddon ’08 and who’s to say that an upside blow off may not be coming sooner rather than later amid massively over bullish sentiment? I mean, there is certainly no stop sign at our 129 target. Sentiment, as we are all too aware, can take a long while to manifest in pricing.
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Saturday, June 03, 2017
Can a Chart Pattern Help You Catch a Strong Bond Rally? Yes / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Plus, find out about a dangerous flaw in a "buy-and-hold" stock market strategy
The Elliott wave model has helped investors catch market turns for eight decades.
As Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle, says:
The Wave Principle is the best forecasting tool in existence. [It] imparts an immense amount of knowledge about the market's position … and its probable ensuing path.
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Thursday, May 11, 2017
What’s the Fed Factor in US Treasury Bond Yields? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Harry_Dent
I hate taxes.I don’t begrudge paying for a functioning government, it’s the dysfunctional favoritism that ticks me off.
This amorphous blob in Washington sucks dollars out of my wallet and then tells me not to worry about how it’s spent, even as I watch the government hand my dollars out like candy.
I’m still beside myself about General Motors.
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Saturday, April 29, 2017
Recall This US Bond Trader Chart? Here's What Happened / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
US Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
TNX – the yield on the 10yr US Treasury note - gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door for a return to 20.00.
The monthly chart below shows how the long-term trend line has turned back the rally in TNX on numerous occasions. However, as the monthly Coppock Curve failed to confirm the 2012 low during the 2016 test of that low we’ve probably seen the low of the +30yr decline in interest rates.
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