Category: CRB Index
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, August 02, 2008
Commodities Broad Consolidation Underway / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• Short-term weakness in August for CRB; upward pressure back by September; 400 to 420 main support zone in consolidation
• Broad, flat trading pattern potentially building; increased caution needed over the next two to three months
• Range-bound trading continues for oil above $120 support level this month; peak price remains at $141 to $147 for 2008
• Natural gas finds support at $9.00; target back to $14 by 4th quarter
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Friday, August 01, 2008
What Inflated the Commodities Bubble? / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Salman_Khan
Crude Oil has corrected over 15% from the top. Gold, Silver, Copper, Wheat and other commodities too have retreated from their respective highs. The heavy selling witnessed in last few days, has raised concerns that the air is leaking from the Commodity bubble and that a multiyear bull market might end soon. It has been pretty well established of late, that the commodity market has been exhibiting many of the characteristics of a bubble. Thus, we may be very well at the beginning of a bursting asset bubble. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
China Driving Force for Long-term Commodities Bull Market / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Emanuel_Balarie
I recently returned back from China with some pertinent observations about the commodity markets, Jim Rogers, and the economy. A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned in my commodities newsletter that if anyone had doubts about the long-term direction of the commodity markets, they should simply hop on a plane and fly to China. The logic behind this is quite simple. Since China has been responsible for the majority of the increased commodity demand over the last decade, keeping a pulse on their commodity consumption trends can give you a pretty clear picture of where things are moving in the longer term. Here are some observations on various topics: Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Commodities Blowoff Potential by September 2008 / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• Higher caution is advised for CRB Index, as blowoff potential increases over summer
• Oil prices expected to spike over $150 during peak demand season; solid support at $120
• Hurricane season starts for natural gas; $14 target, but storms could drive prices far higher
• Grain prices start their advance; first from wet weather and later, summer heat
• Gold-shopping season begins in late July the year (summer driving) has arrived.
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Saturday, April 05, 2008
Commodities 2008: Record Year in the Making / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• Declining U.S. dollar set for sub-$0.70 prices by mid-year; this is fuel for commodities
• Short-term pullback expected for most raw material prices in April and May
• Up too far, too fast within bull market for CRB index; support at 370
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Saturday, March 29, 2008
The Mega Commodity Move: Why It's Happening / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Aden_Forecast
The precious metals have been soaring. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium… you name it. If it's a metal, it's been booming. The same is true of other commodities too. So are commodities the new bubble? Have they replaced the real estate bubble, which replaced the tech stock bubble, as investors move from one bubble to another? It sure looks like it. But the big difference is that this metals and commodities bubble has a lot further to go. Why? Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Commodities Pushing Through New Highs / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• CRB breaks to new ground above old resistance
• Agriculture remains strong, supported by immerging secular trends
• Oil back to $100 and over, as upward pressure builds
• Base metals remain flat, with recession starting in U.S.
• Gold pushing to $1,000 target by mid-year
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Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Commodities Secular Bull Continues Into 2008 - Many More Years to Run! / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
The rebirth of the secular bull market of commodities beginning in 2000 can be mainly contributed, first to the cresting and eventual decline of the U.S. dollar and second, the mounting economic expansion of China and India. Combined, these two forces have propelled raw material prices into a long-term uptrend.
The current extended rise in natural resources is best measured against a broad equity market. In Chart 1, the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) and the S&P 500 are compared for performance over the past 12 years. During most of the 1980s and all of the 1990s, paper-based equities (S&P 500) greatly outperformed raw materials (CRB).
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Friday, January 04, 2008
CRB Commodity Price Index Trend Manipulation / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Zeal_LLC
Around 33 centuries ago, one of the most famous men in history hiked up a mountain probably now known as Jabal al Lawz in today's northwestern Saudi Arabia . There Moses met with God. God Himself carved commandments into stone tablets for Moses to share with His people, the Israelites. These commandments eventually became a major part of the legal foundation for western civilization.
One of these commandments preserved in the book of Exodus is “You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.” While most obviously commanding us not to lie, I believe this commandment goes well beyond lying. It probably also includes presenting true information in such a way that it will likely mislead when interpreted. A modern word that comes to mind along these lines is “nuancing”.
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Sunday, December 02, 2007
Commodities Price Growth to Slow in 2008 / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS: • CRB Index expected to advance to new highs in 2008, but with slower growth
• Light crude oil finds solid support at $89; no weakness anticipated – target is $108
• Fed rate cut meeting on December 11 will send gold higher and drop the USD; target is US$875
• Weaker copper prices point to stalling economies; $3.80 is solid resistance
• Natural gas pinned under $8.50 resistance; little chance of growth until second half of 2008. Steady LNG supply should keep prices low.
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Thursday, November 01, 2007
Inter-market Analysis- All starts with the Fed rate cut - Technical Speculator Nov 2007 / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• Rate cut spells more weakness for U.S. dollar, but upward pressure for major currencies continues
• Gold first to increase, followed by CRB Index
• Utilities and U.S. bonds respond favourably to rate reduction
• Long-term effect of dollar decline is building inflation
• Intermarket actions still favour tangible overweighting in portfolios Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Nartural Resources - The Biggest Boom You'll Ever See! / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Gold is at 27-year highs, about to blast off even higher … and soar to well over $1,000 an ounce.
Oil is also at new record highs … trading over $85 a barrel … on its way to $120 … then, even higher.
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Saturday, October 13, 2007
Commodities Surge as Crack-Up Boom Gathers Pace / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Gold_Investments
GoldGold surged $11.50 in New York yesterday, from $739.80 to $751.30. It was sold off subsequently in the illiquid New York Access Market and has traded sideways in Asian and early European trade. Gold was trading at $748.410/ 748.60 at 1200 GMT.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Commodities Bull Market Revived / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Numerous favorable signals point to a resumption of the commodity bull. It had been stalled for almost a year. The US Federal Reserve interest rate cut on September 18 clearly marked a turning point, a watershed event, a sea change. The USEconomy is the weakest on the planet, not surprising since it grew on the back of a housing bubble, which has since entered a slow motion crater. The US financial sector, the engine behind the so-called FIRE economy, has sputtered from bubbles mixed with kooky engineering mixed with leverage steroids laced with mispricing misrating fraud. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Commodities Pause in Upward Climb / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• CRB pauses again in upward path. 320 offers stiff resistance
• Oil reaches seasonal high in August. Slow drift to 4th qt. low in motion
• Natural gas should begin short period of stronger demand in September
• Copper weakens with drop below support level, drifts to $3.00
• Gold to test $650 support level in September of deterioration.
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Thursday, August 02, 2007
Commodities Are Starting an Upward Trend Again / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:
• CRB Index breaks through key resistance level of 320; stronger commodity market in
second half of 2007
• Oil nearing annual top, as resistance above
$75 builds
• Natural gas strengthens in August; bottom at
$5.30
• Copper prices continue to increase into
September; $4.00 is target
• Nickel finds support at $40.00; improving in
3rd quarter back to May high
• U.S. dollar could break key support of $0.80
in August; gold’s growth set to rise
moderately on new weakness
Saturday, June 30, 2007
Commodities Continued Upward pressure / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• CRB Index continues to slowly turn up
• Oil hits resistance level at $69 to $70; July should begin seasonal uptrend to target
• Natural gas remains pinned under $8.25 level; testing January/2007 lows
• Broad consolidation for gold above $640; support throughout the summer
• Base metals develop short-term easing of prices in July; main trend is still up into July.
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Wednesday, September 27, 2006
The Commodities Bull Market - Where to Next ? / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The speculators long of the metals and energy are reeling from the sell off these past few months, where greed has been gradually replaced by FEAR ! Many now wonder whether the bull market has come to an end.
Monday, September 18, 2006
What's behind the Meltdown in the Commodity markets? / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Sarah_Jones
By Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends
“A Trend in Motion will stay in motion, until some major outside force knocks it off its course.” After climbing to a 25-year high of 365.45 on May 11 th , the Reuters Jefferies Commodities (CRB) Index began to show signs of fatigue in June and July, and then stumbled into a free-fall in August and September. With the CRB index slicing below its four-year upward sloping trend-line in early September, chart watchers would probably agree that a peak in the bullish cycle has been reached.
Monday, August 28, 2006
Is the 'Commodity Super Cycle' Fizzling Out? / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Gary_Dorsch
By Gary Dorsch, Editor of Global Money Trends newsletter
Since reaching a 25-year high of 365.45 on May 11 th , the Reuters Commodity Index, (CRB index), has been showing signs of fatigue, after a relentless four-year climb. The CRB index doubled from four years ago, led by commodity superstars, such as crude oil, copper, gold, platinum, silver, and sugar. However, since topping out three months ago, the CRB index has slumped about 9%, whipping up speculation that the 'Commodity Super Cycle' is fizzling out.
Defending its decision to pause its two-year rate hike campaign at 5.25% on August 8th , the Federal Reserve predicted that a softer US economy would take the steam out of commodity prices. 'Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand,' the Fed said. Putting his fragile reputation on the line, Fed chief Ben Bernanke hinted at a rate pause on July 19th , despite elevated commodity prices. “The recent rise in inflation is of concern, and possible increases in the prices of oil as well as other raw materials remain a risk to the inflation outlook. On the other hand, a slowing economy should reduce inflation pressures,” he told lawmakers on Capitol Hill. 