Category: Stocks Bear Market
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Saturday, June 27, 2009
Smack in the Middle of the Greatest Stocks Bear Market of Our Lifetime / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
I believe we are smack dab in the middle of the biggest stock bear market any of us will witness in our lifetime. This colors my views on investing tremendously and creates an inherent bias. If you don't subscribe to the same view, my rants probably seem a little over the top. But when the P:E ratio is well over 100 during the worst housing market crash and bank and Wall Street wipeout since the last great generational bear market (i.e. the 1929-1932 bear) occurs, it's time to take notice.
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Saturday, June 27, 2009
Dow Jones INDU On-Balance-Volume Stock Market Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The chart below (courtesy BigCharts.com) reflects an On Balance Volume sell signal that manifested on the Dow Jones Industrial Index Chart during this past week.
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Friday, June 26, 2009
Hard Out Here for a Stocks, Bonds and Commodities Bear / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Being bearish on something requires a different temperament than simply switching one's bullishness to a different asset class. I am uber-bearish on traditional asset classes like stocks, corporate bonds and commodities. Being in cash is no fun and not very helpful when one is trying to grow their wealth through investing and speculation.
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
Stocks Bear Market and Financial Crisis Not Over, US Regional Banks The Next to Go / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It is consistent in major bear markets that follow through to the end, for the stocks in sectors showing the most weakness to fall between 80% and 90% from their highs.
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
Inverse ETFs Let You Profit In a Falling Stock Market / InvestorEducation / Stocks Bear Market
Ron Rowland writes: I don’t have to tell you that the stock market can go down as well as up. And the huge volatility we’re seeing in the markets isn’t going away anytime soon.
Why not just stay safely in cash then? Well, for some people that’s exactly the right thing to do. For others, however, that might not be the best option.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Not Finished / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The aggressive rally which propelled the S&P 500 upward 35% from March to June appears to be only half of the bigger picture. Long-term models for the index indicate that the S&P 500 trades on an approximate 7-8 month cycle. The complete movement is from March to October. July represents the mid-point of the cycle.
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Sunday, June 21, 2009
Stock Market Rally Remains a Debt Induced Fictitious Rally / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
As we pen this brief, equity markets deliberate near term direction as they levitate from a hyper-thrust of massive (save our monopolies) intervention in tandem with a crumbling currency.
Share prices are attempting to recover from what is without doubt, an outright failure of long-term fundamentals and stewardship by every practical measure.
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Saturday, June 20, 2009
Stock Market Warning, Counter Trend Rally Moves Continue to Spark False Hopes / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The story remains the same. As a result, I feel that it is important to rehash the last article that I posted here a month or so ago. As I listen to the mainstream commentators, the public and even my local news, it is obvious that optimism remains high. William Peter Hamilton, the great Dow theorist who followed in the footsteps of Charles H. Dow, warned against allowing “the wish to father the thought.” I have listened and closely studied the words of many of the reporters and interviewees on the news and there is little doubt that their optimism is allowing “the wish to father the thought.” Wishing and optimism is not the basis for sound analysis.
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Thursday, June 18, 2009
Stocks Bull Markets Bullsh*T & Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
When credit growth is positive, bull markets result. When credit growth is excessive, bubbles result. When credit growth slows, recessions result and when credit growth contracts, all hell breaks loose.
In free markets, supply and demand determine price and profits. Capitalism’s paper-based markets, however, are not free markets. In today’s capitalist markets, price and profits are determined by credit flows emanating from government central banks.
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Thursday, June 18, 2009
Stock Market Rally Following 1931 Bear Crash Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Bob Chapman writes: The next major move in the stock market will be down. We are seeing the last vestiges of a rally similar to what we saw in 1931. The rally we expected at 6600 up to 8500 will end as soon as all the financial institutions that need to sell what stock is necessary to bolster their balance sheets. Our guess is the rally has been aided in a big way by short covering and the participation of the US government. Those who believe the SEC has stopped naked short selling are sadly mistaken.
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Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Targets / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
There's time and there's price. If you believe, like I do, that a deflationary wipe-out must occur before further cancerous U.S. Dollar debasement (oops, I mean green shoots) can, then you should also believe that this cyclical bear market in general equities ain't gonna take much longer if history is a guide. Most such wipe-outs take 2.5-3.5 years. We're already 1 year and 8 months into this bear market and I personally count the last 7 months (since November panic lows) as one big expanded zig zag correction.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Have Stock Markets Run Away from Reality? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The predictions of the members of the Barron’s mid-year Roundtable discussion over the weekend were in agreement that the March lows of the stock markets would not be broken. This reminded me of one of the famous “Investment Rules” of Bob Farrell, legendary former chief stock market analyst at Merrill Lynch. Rule # 9 stated: “When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.”
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Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally is Over / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Done. Finito. Put a fork in it. Be short or be out of the way if you're an intermediate-term trader. Forget commodities and forget inflation. The next bear leg down in the stock and commodities market is here. Yes, it is possible that there could be an up day in stocks and commodities tomorrow, but I believe the intermediate-term top for the stock market is in and that a full on resumption of the bear market has begun.
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Monday, June 15, 2009
Stocks Bull Market or Bear Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Martin Hutchinson writes: Since sinking to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index had risen 24% — the best such short-term rally since 1933. But this isn’t 1933 and you shouldn’t trust the rally. Happy Days are NOT here again, at least not yet.
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Monday, June 15, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally Running Out of Steam Reversal Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The counter-trend rally which started on March 6 is still up, but losing momentum. Red flags are appearing in the A/D and the sentiment indicator. These are signals that normally precede a reversal.
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Friday, June 12, 2009
Stocks Secular and Cyclical Bear and Bull Markets / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Earlier this week, a friend asked me if I thought this stock bear was over. My first thought was “which bear?”, for there isn’t just one. The stock-market action over the last couple years has been a tale of two bears. Investors who’ve failed to understand this critical truth are very confused on what to expect from stocks going forward.
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Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Ten Reasons to Buy Stocks Now / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Jeff Clark writes: For the past few weeks, I've been spouting off about all the reasons to stay out of the stock market.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Leading Economic Indicators, S&P 500, and 10 Month Moving Average / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Over the past month I have highlighted the strategy attributed to Mebane Faber. It is a simple but elegant strategy that probably gets more merit for its aversion to risk than its ability to time the exact bottom of a bear market. It is a strategy - a way of executing a plan of when to buy and sell. It is not a "call" or opinion on the market. That stuff I will leave to others.
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Sunday, June 07, 2009
Stock Market Extreme Bullish Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
As you would expect from the bullish price action last week, the "Dumb Money" indicator is moving to new extreme highs. Since 1991, this has been the 8th most extreme reading out of the 42 unique times the indicator went above the bullish extreme line (i.e., bear signal). Extreme readings, such as the current one, are generally associated with strong bull markets like those seen from 1995 to 1998 and from 2003 to 2004. The only real failure was in 2002, and this led to the flush into the July, 2002 lows.
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Saturday, June 06, 2009
The Great Crash Not Over, Stocks Bear Market Rally Built on Sand / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
A recovery is supposed to be in the works in the midst of increased savings, declining debt balances on credit cards, more bankruptcies, higher unemployment and new wave of foreclosures. Consumer participation in GDP is down from 72% to 70.4%. Bank and other financial firms’ balance sheets are what they say they are and we have a stock market bear rally built on sand just as we had in 1931. And, lest we forget, bogus government statistics calculated to confuse professionals and investors alike.
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