Category: Recession 2008 - 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
The Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_and_Markets
The Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come
Mike Larson writes: I invest prudently to help ensure the future financial well-being of my wife and two daughters. And Martin, who visited us recently, shares the same philosophy.
But when future history books are written on the twenty-first century, they will probably show that this time — right now — was the most dangerous for investors in decades.
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Saturday, October 18, 2008
The Financial and Economic Blue Screen of Death / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
The Psyche of the American Consumer - The Consumer Weakens
- The Paradox of Thrift
- An Economic Blue Screen Of Death
- Those Wild And Crazy Analysts
This week I am in California giving two speeches to the Financial Planning Associations of San Diego and Orange County. This and next week's letters will be the broad outline of the speech. We will look at how the retreat of the American consumer will affect the stock market. Has the recent drop (can we say crash, gentle reader?) in stock market valuations given us an opportunity to find value? We look at some very powerful evidence that suggests that may be so. Then we look at the counter to that view. Are we at the bottom, or is there more pain? And given the current state of affairs, how should we then invest? Where do we put our money to work when the dust settles, as it surely will.
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Saturday, October 18, 2008
Economic Crisis Worsens as Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low / Stock-Markets / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Confidence among Americans fell by the most on record and single-family housing starts hit a 26- year low, posing an increasing threat to consumer spending that accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Credit Crisis Bailouts Will Prevent Recession But Not Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Hans_Wagner
The rescue plan is now law. You might be wondering how this $700 (actually $850 billion) rescue plan will help improve the economy and help you beat the market. The credit markets remain tight and they are having repercussions across the US economy and throughout the world. Now that the government has arrived to help, will it work? Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Baltic Dry Shipping Collapse Sign of Consumer Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Baltic Dry Shipping Index covers dry bulk shipping rates and some view it as a proxy for general economic health. The index continues to collapse. Baltic Dry Index
Notice that the indicator is back at levels not seen since 2005 and is below levels seen in 2004.
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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The U.S. Housing Market Economic Double Negative Feedback Loop / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andrew_Butter
Perhaps the time for self-delusion is passed. The grand new plan, just replaced the $700 billion plan, that replaced the $80 billion plan to bail out AIG, that replaced the Bear Stearns bailout which was just pocket change.
Forgive me for being skittish but it seems like every time you blink the number goes up by a factor of ten. The way it looks now is that combined USA , Europe and UK , the damage could easily be $7 trillion.
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Friday, October 10, 2008
How to Save the U.S. Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Richard_C_Cook
The crashing stock market has given its verdict. The financial rescue plan currently being implemented by the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve System will fail to revitalize the producing economy, even with continued interest rate cuts. This is because the banking system is essentially a supply-side, trickle-down mechanism with a currency based on a pyramid of bank lending and debt. All the current plans being suggested by economists and others to save the financial system by varying degrees of tinkering are useless. Similarly useless is the pumping in of credit or liquidity by Treasury or the Federal Reserve because it is no more than new debt to roll over old debt. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
How To Protect Your Wealth During This Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Emanuel_Balarie
It is often in the midst of economic despair that wealth is both made...and lost. While history often focuses only on the financial loss that transpires during recessions, it is also important to point out that these types of market environments have also provided individuals with the opportunity to make money.
Consider, for instance, some of the biggest companies we have today. Microsoft was started during the recession of 1975, Hewlett-Packard was born during the Great Depression, Disney was founded during 1923, and GE started during the panic of 1873. The founders of these companies were all able to thrive during times of economic turmoil.
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Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Is the United States In Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
At every FOMC meeting this year at least one voting member has dissented from the majority. The dissenter or dissenters either objected to the federal funds interest rate reductions implemented earlier in the year or wanted to increase the interest rate when the majority voted to keep the rate unchanged. The major reason for these FOMC dissents was a belief that Fed policy was too accommodative and, thus, would fan the flames of consumer price inflation. On the eve of the September 16 FOMC meeting, we believe that it is time for these FOMC hawks to “eat crow.”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
XL's Spreadsheet Fails to Addup / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
XL, Britain's third largest tour operator went bust today leaving more than 90,000 holiday makers stranded across the globe and another 200,000 with advance bookings facing a loss. The company was forced to call in the
administrators this morning after last minute financial backing talks failed.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Sectors Rotating into Recession as Credit Contraction Deepens / Stock-Markets / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Kurt_Kasun
Things are about to get really bad. Rotating bubbles are now becoming rotating sector recessions as the positive feedback loops, created as money and credit growth ballooned over the last 25 years, have reversed and are now becoming negative feedback loops. I expect to see those 25 years of excesses to dramatically unwind over the course of the next few years. The evaporation of paper wealth will be breathtaking. A "buy on the dips" mentality has been replaced by "sell on the rallies." Declining house values will further hinder the finance sector which will impede the real economy, causing asset prices to further plunge. The tipping point for debt creation's positive impact has been reached and we can expect economic convulsions similar to what a drug addict experiences after kicking the habit "cold turkey." Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Growing Herd Of American White Elephants as Corporations Shrink / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Harvard Illinois, located only a half hour or so from where I live, is home to very large white elephant. Please consider the story of the White Elephant of Harvard .
When the sun sets in Harvard, the lights inside the empty Motorola plant power up and a bright glow arches across the sky in this small farm town.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
US Recession with Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Bruce_Allen
"One foot on the brake and one on the gas, hey! " --Sammy Hagar, "I Can't Drive 55" It's the summer of 2008 in the U.S. . Recession is imminent, if not already here, and debate rages as to whether it will be accompanied by inflation, giving us that 70's show--stagflation. Most respected economists insist the inflation risk is small; a number of others think it's high. We examine the arguments, dividing them into Things We Know and Things We Suspect.
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Monday, August 18, 2008
The US Economy: All the little things that go to make a Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
Since 9/11 the US money supply has rocketed by about 70 per cent*. (The Clinton presidency was just as bad). The problem is one of bad economics, not bad investment decisions, wild speculation, the housing boom, the falling dollar, the current account deficit, the domestic deficit, etc. The vast majority of economic pundits have only a dim understanding of the link between the money supply and America's current economic difficulties.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
US Recession, Economic Data is a Lagging Indicator / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
In this weekend's Thoughts from the Frontlines, I quoted from part of a very thoughtful, right-on-target analysis by David A. Rosenberg entitled "The Elusive Bottom." Over the weekend, I decided that you should read the whole piece, as Rosenberg makes some very solid points about how the markets and the economy may play out over the next few years. He has a non-consensus viewpoint, but that is what I like for Outside the Box. In fact, I think this is one of the more thought-provoking pieces I have used in OTB for some time. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Crashing Global Economy Boosts Dollar as Interest Rate Differentials Narrow / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Almost exactly a year after the advent of the credit debacle, the term “credit crunch” squeezed into Britain's Chambers dictionary, defined as “a sudden and drastic reduction in the availability of credit”.
Fittingly, the past week witnessed market participants focusing anew on deteriorating global growth prospects, arguing that slower growth and belt-tightening times could reduce inflation pressures.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008
Economic Decoupling Fails as World Follows US into Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
- A Mid-Year Correction
- Whatever Happened to Decoupling?
- The UK Starts to Slow
- A Recession by Any Other Name
- What's a Central Banker to Do?
The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were starting to provide a consumer base for the world. And Europe's new and growing markets would be able to stave off problems from abroad and stay on their own growth path. The world, we were assured last year, would not suffer from problems in the US economy.
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Euro-zone on the Brink of Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Jennifer Yousfi writes: The Eurozone economy recorded its first decline in more than a decade as slowdowns in the European Union's largest economies dragged on gross domestic product (GDP).
The Eurozone economy, which covers the 15 nations that share the euro currency, contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, as a 0.5% decline in Germany and a 0.3% decline in France offset gains in the smaller economies of Austria, Portugal and Spain, Eurostat, the European Union's official statistics office, announced yesterday (Thursday).
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Fundemental Change as Global Economy Heads For Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The global economy is slowing rapidly. Let's take a look at some striking examples. Germany, France, Spain, Italy
Bloomberg is reporting German, French Economies Shrink as Spending, Investment Falter .
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Saturday, August 09, 2008
Italy Tips Into Recession as Q2 GDP Contracts / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Victoria_Marklew
The first of the Euro-zone's big economies reported preliminary Q2 GDP data today -- and the picture was not a pretty one. Italy's GDP contracted 0.3% q-o-q in Q2, and posted zero growth on the year.Read full article... Read full article...