Category: Stock Market Sentiment
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, July 09, 2023
The AAII Stock Market Investor Sentiment Switch Got Flipped! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently today's stock market sentiment is the most bearish since the March 2009 low! Which implies the end of the bear market is imminent. However there could be a double dip lower low.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Avi_Gilburt
Before you begin reading this article, I want to warn you that it is quite lengthy and also recaps some of our analysis over the past 20 months. So, if this will offend you or you don't want to hear that, feel free to stop reading right now.
I have been writing for Seeking Alpha now for over a decade. And, during that time, I certainly have had my share of critics. I have been told that I do not understand the markets I track. I have been called names like "insane," "dimwit," "charlatan," and "snake oil salesman." And, I have been told that my "squiggly line" analysis cannot foretell anything, is "absurd," "chart magic," and "highly unmeaningful."
And, these are just some of the comments I received over the last 20 months alone, as you can see for yourself:
Are You As Foolish As Most Market Participants?
So, it has certainly been an interesting past 20 months, in addition to the last decade.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
It's been noted before in these pages that ...
... Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined
That was an April CNBC headline.
That remains an astounding fact to contemplate and a testimony to a widespread cavalier sentiment toward risk. The basic attitude is that stocks almost always go up.
Well, nearly a half year since that CNBC headline published, the public's interest in stocks has remained intense.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Ed_Carlson
Technicians typically look for signs of excess bullishness or bearishness in sentiment polls to conclude markets have swung too far in one direction or the other. An extreme in bullishness is often followed by a decline in equities and an extreme in bearishness is often followed by a rally.
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Thursday, September 10, 2015
Stock Market Sentiment Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Gary_Tanashian
In the last 2 NFTRH editions, we noted extremely over bearish market sentiment conditions in Rydex bull/bear fund allocations and in Small Speculators’ net short positions. These sentiment indicators have been reset to traditional correction-ending, even bear market-ending levels. That’s the reality.
The latter especially, has been a reliable contrary indicator. Basically, the Small Specs have never been right at important market turns. For instance, they were heavily net short in the late 1990’s but by the time the market topped in 2000, they had covered and become net long. They have reliably been a contrary indicator all along the current bull market as well, going net short at each correction bottom, post 2009.
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Friday, July 10, 2015
Stock Market Sentiment Reset / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Gary_Tanashian
Excerpted from an extensive multi-market NFTRH update (including global stocks, commodities and precious metals) yesterday morning:
Volatility. It is what we expected and it is what we have with Tuesday’s big down and upward reversal, down hard again yesterday and today very green in pre-market. This volatility applies to most assets markets including the precious metals. It is the nature of the beast during a news-rich summer, with many operators on vacation or semi-vacation (with some players not able to resist peeking?).
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Monday, August 25, 2014
Stock Market Fear Is Good / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Investment_U
Steve McDonald writes: Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), the brainchild of Aubrey McClendon, has been though the ringer for the past few years. Its problems included McClendon using it as his personal piggy bank, or some such accusation; buying far too many assets in the shale areas in the U.S. and ending up in a cash crunch; gas prices dropping to ridiculous levels; and the stock price getting crushed from around $60 to the low teens.
Tuesday, February 04, 2014
Stock Market Bull - Bear Spread for Sentimental Reasons / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Ed_Carlson
The song (I love you) For Sentimental Reasons was recorded by Nat King Cole in 1946 and I feel as if I’ve been staring at my sentiment indicators for nearly that long trying to tell if equity markets are due for a bounce this week.
Survey-driven metrics such as the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) and NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) have definitely fallen but don’t appear to have fallen to levels associated with past lows in the S&P 500. The chart below shows the AAII bull-bear spread. It has turned negative for the first time since last August but it certainly hasn’t reached the level seen in late August which succeeded in turning the equity market back up from its low then.
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Monday, December 16, 2013
Stock Market Sentiment: Dow Industrials Weakening / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Declan. I have added a new market sentiment chart with relative momentum, trend and volume metrics in the one chart. As an example in the new chart, industrials (XLI) gained Thursday and Friday, but these gains were delivered with a drop in momentum, cooling volume and a weak bullish trend.
Monday, December 10, 2012
The Twitter Stock Market Investor Sentiment Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: PhilStockWorld
The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is confirming the current uptrend. Both daily and smoothed sentiment are showing very strong readings that reflect the optimism of market participant’s tweets. We saw a good number of tweets early last week predicting the market would hold support and that any dip should be bought. This proved to be true as the dip to 1400 on SPX was bought aggressively. Later in the week traders were tweeting about trading the current range, but still wanting to be buyers to levels as low as the 1385 on SPX (near the 200 day moving average).
Friday, November 23, 2012
Contrarian Sentiment Indicator Says Stock Markets Have Bottomed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Over the last decade, this idea has been "a perfect contrary indicator," my friend Jason Goepfert explained on Monday.
Jason runs the excellent SentimenTrader website – my go-to site for all things "sentiment."
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Witness the Epic Battle Between Stock Market Investor Hope and Investor Fear / InvestorEducation / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
Can an investor ever know enough about financial markets to make a truly informed decision?
Even professionals must cope with imperfect knowledge, and the constant uncertainty that comes with it. That's why every investor looks to others for signals about what to do.
Read full article... Read full article...Have you ever watched a dog interact with its owner? The dog repeatedly looks at the owner, taking cues constantly. The owner is the leader, and the dog is a pack animal alert for every cue of what the owner wants it to do.
Saturday, June 02, 2012
Investor Sentiment at Stock Market Bottom / InvestorEducation / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Submissions
Ed Carlson writes: Everyone seems to be in on the ‘sentiment game’. Even non-technicians talk on CNBC and Bloomberg T.V. these days about throwing in the towel, capitulation, and washouts as if it’s something everybody watches and not just technicians. For the uninitiated the idea is that once sentiment (crowd psychology) has moved too far to one extreme (bearish or bullish) that the sentiment pendulum will then swing in the other direction. Call it reversion to the mean or what you will, it is a phenomenon which seems to hold throughout the human experience and the natural world. The ‘trick’ is to quantify an otherwise qualitative turn of events.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Stock Market Investor Sentiment and a Quick Dow Theory Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Tim_Wood
Sentiment alone is not a timing tool for the market. But, it is useful in telling us when too many people get on the same side of the boat, which in turn tells us that conditions have ripened for a turn. I have said many times of late that the recent sentiment environment reminded me of the 2006 and 2007 period. In the chart below I have included the S&P 500 and a sentiment indicator that is comprised of the Investor Intelligence Bulls divided by Bulls plus Bears. In other words, this shows us the percentage of Bulls to total Bulls and Bears. Now, note on the chart below that during the 2007 period when this reading rose above 72%, an intermediate-term top soon followed.
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Friday, November 26, 2010
North Korea, Euro Crisis… Trading News Psychology / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Zeal_LLC
Overnight Tuesday, selling pressure slammed futures on the ominous news of North Korea shelling a South Korean island. What ought to have been a relatively-quiet market day heading into Thanksgiving was suddenly filled with anxiety. How would the South Koreans retaliate? Was a new war erupting?
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Stock Market Dumb Money Turns Bearish Which is Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
As expected, the "dumb money" has turned bearish on the markets, and this is a bullish signal.
The "Dumb Money" indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1)Investors Intelligence; 2) Market Vane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. The "Dumb Money" indicator has turned bearish and this is a bullish signal.
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
This Shows the Current Stock Market Bias ... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Marty_Chenard
A down trend within an up trend?
Medium term, Institutional activity is showing an up trend in Accumulation.
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Friday, August 06, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Indicators At SubNormal Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Richard_Shaw
David Rosenberg, in his daily letter, presented some interesting sentiment statistics in perspective of historical values during good and bad times. The implication is that there is a major disconnect between bullish comments about the economy by some experts and the view of the people where the rubber meets the road. He combines that information to suggest that the S&P 500 is substantially overvalued.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
SP-500, GLD and GDX Investor Sentiment Trumps Everything / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: John_Townsend
Markets rise when the preponderance of participants are buyers, and fall when the preponderance of participants are sellers. One of the key ways to anticipate the pendulum swings of participant behavior, and therefore price behavior, is to evaluate sentiment. Sentiment, more than fundamentals or technical analysis, trumps everything.
When too many players are on the same side of a trade they eventually find themselves in a crowded position where most everyone around them has the same motivation – to reverse their position when the tide changes.