Category: Employment
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
Charts That Reveal US Real Employment Status and It’s Not Good / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
The “labor force” from which we get unemployment statistics includes only those people who are either working or wish to be working.
It ignores the retired, those in school, the disabled, and nonworking spouses—as well as those who are not interested in working.
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Wednesday, March 22, 2017
Raising the Minimum Wage Is a Jobs Killing Move / Economics / Employment
By: David_Galland
By Stephen McBride: In January, 19 US states raised their respective minimum wages. Washington was among the most generous, hiking by $1.53 (bringing it to $11 per hour). Arizona got an increase of $1.95—their “bottom rung” now sits at $10 per hour.
In all, 4.3 million workers are slated to receive a hike as they earn less than the new minimum wage in their respective states. Well, that’s what’s meant to happen. Judging by the fallout from recent hikes, it seems things aren’t going according to plan.
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Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Startups Will Define the Future of US Employment / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Research shows that technology has net-net created far more jobs than it has destroyed. A recent study by Deloitte drew on data going back to 1871 in England and Wales and found that technology has been a job-creating machine.
Part of that is because technology increases people’s spending power, which creates a surge in the demand for hairdressers, bar staff, etc.
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Friday, March 10, 2017
Why the US Will Lose Tens of Millions of Jobs in the Next 20 Years / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
A significant part of Trump’s campaign centered on the angst of the white middle class and the ongoing loss of jobs in the Rust Belt. And that focus gave him his margin of victory.
Trump promised to bring those jobs back, a sentiment that resonated powerfully with the electorate. The problem is—as we’ve talked about previously—that at least 80–90% of manufacturing jobs were lost not to companies moving factories to China or Mexico but to increased automation.
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Friday, February 03, 2017
Shocking Fact in Today's US Jobs Report: Employment Stalls / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction
Today's employment report shows a robust increase of 227,000 jobs. The good news stops there. The rest of the report was horrific.
The big news is in employment where the three-month trend worsened.
In the last three months, employment has only risen by a grand total of 33,000. Employment in January declined by 30,000. For the entire year, employment rose by only 1,548,000. The average increase from a year ago is only 129,000 per month.
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Wednesday, January 25, 2017
We Could See US Job Creation Fall off the Cliffs in the Months Ahead / Economics / Employment
By: Harry_Dent
Let’s do a quick thought experiment…Imagine you’ve got two people in the workforce. Let’s say one is 40 and the other 65.
When both are gainfully employed, the unemployment rate is 0%. We’re enjoying full employment within the labor pool.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016
A Closer Look at Our Recent US Employment Numbers / Economics / Employment
By: Rodney_Johnson
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 178,000 jobs – with 156,000 in the private sector and 22,000 in government – which is right in line with the monthly average for 2016.But let’s dig a little deeper past the headline numbers. For years we’ve argued that there’s more to the story than just the number of jobs created. We want to know, and our economy depends on, how much money people are paid.
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Monday, December 12, 2016
The Robot Workforce is Coming - Here’s Why It's Best for Everyone / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Every day brings a new warning: robots are coming to take our jobs. Soon we’ll all be unemployed… and unable to buy what the robots produce.
What good are robots if all they do is make stuff we can’t afford? I don’t know. But there's no doubt automation will replace some human workers—even (gasp!) writers and editors.
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Tuesday, September 06, 2016
Teen Labour, the Workforce Proves to Be Valuable Education / Politics / Employment
By: Rodney_Johnson
I lied to get my first job.
The minimum required age was 15, and I was only 13. Luckily, I was 5’ 10” at the time, so I could pass for a couple of years older. I proudly drew my first paycheck as a fry cook at the Dairy Bar, a local burger joint in Southeast Texas. I learned a lot more on the job than just how to flip burgers.
On this Labor Day, I was reminded of my days on the food line… and a celebrity hashtag theme #firstsevenjobs that began trending recently. The woman that started it listed her early employment history and many of her followers have since followed suit.
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Monday, August 15, 2016
Why Protectionism Won’t Save Unskilled Labor / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
I just read a policy paper from the German Marshall Fund of the United States. It defends the present trade model. The authors do a good job, but in the process, they describe the problem.
Take a look at this part. (I bolded a few key points.)
The global economy is no longer about making a product in one country, and shipping and selling it somewhere else. It is about complex supply chains that weave together activities all over the globe, supported by investment, technology, and skills that know no borders.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2016
The Phony U.S. Jobs Recovery / Politics / Employment
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Last Friday saw the release of a bombshell jobs report, with headlines exclaiming that the US economy added over 250,000 jobs in July, far in excess of any forecasts. The reality was far more grim. Those "jobs" weren't actually created by businesses – they were created by the statisticians who compiled the numbers, through the process of "seasonal adjustment." That's a bit of statistical magic that the government likes to pull out of its hat when the real data isn't very flattering. It's done with GDP, it's done with job numbers, and similar manipulation is done with government inflation figures to keep them lower than actual price increases. In reality there are a million fewer people with jobs this month than last month, but the magic of seasonal adjustment turns that into a gain of 255,000.
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Monday, June 06, 2016
The Keynesians Stole The Jobs / Economics / Employment
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Late last week the markets were shocked by a surprisingly bad May jobs report - the worst monthly report in nearly six years. The experts expected the US economy to add 160,000 jobs in May, but it turns out only 38,000 jobs were added. And to make matters worse, 13,000 of those 38,000 were government jobs! Adding more government employees is a drain on the economy, not a measure of economic growth. Incredibly, there are more than 102 million people who are either unemployed or are no longer looking for work.
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Thursday, April 14, 2016
Saving Middle-Class Jobs in America: Is It Worth $30 Socks? / Politics / Employment
By: Rodney_Johnson
My younger daughter doesn’t conform to, well, much of anything. As a very young girl she insisted on doing her own hair. She liked pony tails – lots of them – but as a four or five-year-old, she didn’t have much skill at getting them right. This meant that she often had 11 or 12 fountains of blonde hair sticking out all over her head. She was very proud.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Beware of March Non Farm Payrolls. They Have the Worst Record than any Other Month / Economics / Employment
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The table below shows the consistency of misses (actual figure below consensus forecasts) in March NFPs over the last three years. In fact, NFP figures for the month of March have come in below forecasts in 7 out of the last 8 March reports with an average miss of -59k.
Most strikingly & recently, last year's March report showed a 126K reading, well below consensus of 245K. Interestingly, that 129K reading was revised down to 88K one month later.
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Friday, March 04, 2016
US Jobs Report 242,000 Jobs: 304,000 Were Part-Time; Average Weekly Earnings Sank / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Jobs came in well above expectations at 242,000 despite tax data collections that support a Job Growth estimate of 55,000 to 85,000 .
A quick dive into the details shows the report is a lot weaker than the headline number indicates. Of the 242,000 jobs added, 304,000 of them were part time. That means the economy actually shed 62,000 full-time jobs.
Average hours worked declined as did average weekly earnings despite minimum wage hikes in numerous states at the beginning of the year.
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Saturday, January 09, 2016
U.S.December Payrolls: ‘Back End’ Still Strong; a Closer Look / Economics / Employment
By: Gary_Tanashian
It is important to distinguish the ‘back end’ from the ‘front end’ of the economy or else all you end up with hype emanating from the financial sphere every time an economic data release comes out. For example, I was critical of Martin Armstrong’s post, Is the recession Starting? in a rebuttal post, Armstrong 3+ Decades Late on Manufacturing because Marty’s post not only brought back some jaw droppingly old fashioned concepts about US manufacturing (JiT and automation replacing labor) but it focused only on the ‘front end’ of the economy, affirming the “ECM” in a short info-blurb.
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Wednesday, January 06, 2016
ISM a Leading Indicator of Jobs? Why 2016 Will Shock to the Downside! / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
ISM a Leading Indicator of Jobs?
I expect monthly jobs reports in 2016 will shock to the downside. Before I list all the reasons, here's an interesting chart that suggests manufacturing ISM is a leading indicator of jobs.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2015
UK Jobs: No Pay, No Play / Economics / Employment
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Today's release of the UK jobs figures confirms the suspicions of the doves at the Bank of England, with earnings (pay) growth continuing to decline, joblessness pushing higher for the fourth straight month even as the unemployment rate hit a fresh 7-year low of 5.2%.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2015
The Gig Economy Is the New Normal / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
An already-confusing employment environment grew even more complicated this past week. Many readers responded to my “Crime in the Jobs Report” letter with their own stories. Some confirmed what I wrote, while others disputed it. Some of the stories I read from readers who are stuck far from where they want to be in this job market were very moving. I think everyone agrees the labor outlook is uncertain. I sense a lot of nervousness, even from those who have secure jobs that pay well. In today’s letter, I’m going to respond to some of the observations and data that came in this week on employment.
Monday, November 09, 2015
U.S. Jobs NonFarm Payrolls +271,000; Is the Game Changing? / Economics / Employment
By: Gary_Tanashian
I can already tell NFTRH 368 is going to be a flowing thing because there is a lot of on-point material to talk about. So the usual standard charts will be minimized in favor of trying to get a good read on what is in process in the markets, in policy and in the economy.
Specifically, given the October Payrolls data, its effect on interest rates and the US dollar we seem to be back to a point similar to where we were 1 year ago when we used a strong USD (and corresponding weak Yen and Euro) to plot bullish trade possibilities in Japan and Europe, and a bearish environment for US exporters.
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