Category: Stock Markets 2013
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, October 03, 2013
U.S. Government Shutdown Great for Stocks Bull Market, Bears Will be Crucified Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The U.S. Government has shutdown, some 700,000 workers told to stay at home and speculation rife that the U.S. is 2 weeks away from debt interest payment default, so it is not surprising that Doom and Gloom prevails as supposedly a new bear market has once more begun, right at the maximum point for seasonal weakness for the stock market. The perma bears and many other inexperienced but highly vocal market commentators can be found jumping up and down like demented rabbits proclaiming the likes of the "Top is In", just google the stock market and you will see an near infinite number of pages of commentary proclaiming that the bull market has ended, despite the fact that the same commentators never rode it on the way up!
Tuesday, October 01, 2013
A Good Day for a Major stock Market Down Turn? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Yesterday I had suggested a “hope rally” that would figure in a bounce back to mid-Cycle resistance at 1690.00, but it appears to have taken place in the overnight futures.
The Pre-Market is only nominally higher after going to 1691.00 (cash) overnight, so the bounce may have already come and gone.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2013
Too Much Stock Market Complacency / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Brian_Bloom
The breakaway gap followed by the runaway gap in the first chart of the Volatility (fear) Index implies that the 17.5 level on the second chart will be broken to the upside. If that does happen, we will very likely see fireworks. The financial markets seem to be taking the government shutdown with far too much complacency. The lines between Republicans (responsible management of government finances) and Democrats (altruistic aspirations paid for with other people’s money) have been drawn so deep in the sand that one might think of them as having been cast in concrete. Compromise seems a distant possibility.
Tuesday, October 01, 2013
The Real "Pin" That Could Pop the Stock Market Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Nothing goes up forever. Not the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, not global debt levels, and not stock markets... even when governments don't shut down.
Precisely because the Fed's balance sheet ballooned from $869 billion in August 2007 to over $3.6 trillion (and counting) today, and in spite of ballooning U.S. and global debt levels, U.S. equity benchmarks have been inflated to precarious heights.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2013
Stock Market Volatility Gains as Congress Showboats / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Daniel Sckolnik writes: “It’s more fun to talk with someone who doesn’t use long difficult words but rather short easy words like What about lunch?” — Winnie the Pooh
Washington is back doing what it seems to be best at these days, which is ramping up the national angst while it plays a Congressional game of “chicken.”
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Monday, September 30, 2013
Stock Market Hope Trade Lingers / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Afternoon!
The “hope trade” lingers for yet awhile. Any rumor of a settlement could boost the SPX back up to the H&S neckline. If so, I will re-label this spike as Wave [c] of 2. It may even go back to 1700.00 briefly. Everything is tentative, yet, so I may post another look at the SPX later. What I do know is that tomorrow is a double pivot day, so it makes te most sense that we get a spike from this low before the market turns down hard.
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Monday, September 30, 2013
Republican Baby Budget Battle Breaks the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Told you so!
As we expected, the Futures are off about 1% this morning and down about 3.5% on the Dow, S&P and NYSE since Thursday, the 19th, when we told you to ignore the Fed rally and the painted charts and focus on the FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES that were going to drive the market lower. I also had some opinion about what to do with the new oil contract, saying right in the morning post (where even the free readers could see it):
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Monday, September 30, 2013
October Stock Market Correction and the Secret Ruler of The Federal Reserve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Clif_Droke
In recent commentaries we've looked at the possible scenario for an October stock market correction. This scenario is based on Kress cycle "echo" considerations as well as a number of technical and market psychology indicators which suggest a market top may be forming. A number of individual stocks are still bullish, but intermediate-term indicators suggest that distribution has been underway in various sectors and industry groups for some time. Accordingly, traders should remain wary of the possibility for an "October surprise."
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Are the Bells Ringing At the Stock Market Top This Time Around? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Graham_Summers
It’s often argued that they don’t a bell at the top.
I would argue that we numerous bells ringing in the financial markets today.
Carl Icahn wants Apple to leverage up to boost returns to shareholders. Apple has maintained next to no debt for the better part of ten years.
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Stock Market Still Looks Bullish – In the Rear-View Mirror / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
In his 1999 warning that the stock market over the next 17 years “will not perform anything like it performed in the past 17 years”, Warren Buffett made several other interesting observations.
Friday, September 27, 2013
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to New Stock Market Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
The financial crisis of 2008 was the biggest panic America had witnessed since the Great Depression. Dubbed the “Great Recession,” its after-effects linger. In fact, this is the worst post-bust recovery on record.
Today, for investors, especially stock market investors, there are two camps: those who believe we are in recovery, and those (like me) who believe something is wrong with this recovery…it doesn’t feel or smell right.
Friday, September 27, 2013
Stock Market Sideways Consolidation Camouflages Danger Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today’s action was basically a sideways consolidation, buying time but little else as overhead resistance and low volume grind down the attempts at a rally. Sideways consolidations are generally signs of a continuation of the existing trend.
Several commentators have wondered why the current bottom has held so long. Others have pointed out the obvious Head & Shoulders formation with a minimum target of 1653.90. No one has recognized the Broadening Wedge which has a much more significant meaning.
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Tuesday, September 24, 2013
New Dow Components Enter Index on a Whimper / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Welcome GS ($165), V ($196) and NKE ($69) - Goodbye to AA ($8), BAC ($14) and HPQ ($21).
The changing of the Dow replaced $43 worth of stocks with $430 worth of stocks and, in the price-weighted index, this is a major shift of balance. Rather than over-analyze it, let's just say that it shifts the Dow to a far more consumer-spending orientation and GS pumps up the sensitivity to the banking sector. What we're taking away from, once again is the "Industrials" which, much like America, are barely a part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average anymore.
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Monday, September 23, 2013
Stock Market Tangling With 13 Year Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Afternoon!
BKX has lost all Model supports and appears to be capable of declining to its daily mid-Cycle support at 59.36. Should it stop there and bounce, we may have the setup for our first Head & Shoulders formation in this decline.
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Monday, September 23, 2013
DJIA Futures Elliott Waves Suggests Temporary Top Is In Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Gregor_Horvat
US stocks futures extended weakness in the last few hours and now we have five waves down on DJIA futures from the top which means that temporary high is in place. Therefore, market will make minimum three wave retracement to the downside because that’s the minimum structure of a contra-trend price action. With that in mind, be aware of more weakness in days ahead, but after a bounce in wave (b). This wave (b) could occur soon if we consider that price is already in fifth wave now of wave (a) down.
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Monday, September 23, 2013
Shake-Up For The Dow Jones 30 Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Clif_Droke
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is getting another makeover this week. On Sept. 20, the Dow 30 stock industrial index will replace three of its older components - Alcoa, Bank of America, and Hewlett Packard - and will replace them with Goldman Sachs, Visa, and Nike. This makes the 52nd time since its inception in 1885 that the index has changed components.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Fed Decision Speeds Up Stock Market Topping Action / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX has made a new high after ending its correction at 1627. It still has a little way to go to reach its current intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 22, 2013
Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
An expected volatile FOMC/Options expiration week did not disappoint. The market started the week with a gap up opening, held those highs on Tuesday, then spiked when FED chairman Bernanke did not taper QE 3 as was expected. Then the unwinding of that spike unfolded during Thursday and Friday’s expiration. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%, and the DJ World index was +2.0%. Economic reports for the week ended positive. On the uptick: industrial production, the CPI, existing home sales, the Philly FED, leading indicators, the monetary base and the WLEI. On the downtick: the NY FED, the NAHB, housing starts, building permits, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week: Q2 GDP (est. +2.5%), PCE prices and more housing reports.
Saturday, September 21, 2013
Stock Market Investors Have No Place to Hide / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It now appears that SPX has broken its 3-week Ending Diagonal formation. The minimum retrace is 100%. There are only 3 waves evident here, so the move is as yet incomplete. The most likely immediate target is either the Broadening Wedge trendline at 1692.00 or short-term support at 1688.12.
Saturday, September 21, 2013
Has Warren Buffett Nailed Another Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
I know. I know. Warren Buffett is not a market-timer, has no idea what the market will be doing this year, or next, or at any specific time in the future. Or so he says, and the media seems to accept it as fact.
So we probably shouldn’t pay attention to what he is doing and saying now.
However, in spite of what he says, Buffett has a remarkable track record of accurately calling the serious market tops and bottoms.
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