Category: Stock Markets 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Asian Stocks Markets: Sand In The Gears Of The Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
George R. Harrison writes:
The Asian Stock Market scene has been dynamic and strong. At least until some sand got into the gearworks a few months back and started to grind the bull markets to a halt.
The 'canary in the coal mine' was first spotted in the Malaysian Stock Index.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Stock Indexes Continue Sell-Off Following Declining Oil Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,085 and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, December 15, 2014
Stock Market Time for a Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - A correction of currently indeterminate time frame has started. There is a good chance, however, that it will be more than a short-term correction.
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Monday, December 15, 2014
Stock Market Euphoria: The Mother of All Ponzi Schemes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The bubble of all bubbles. A house of cards waiting to collapse, says Paul Craig Roberts.
A great unraveling looms. America’s economy based on market manipulation. Rigging things one way.
Smoke and mirrors deception. Money printing madness. Privatizing profits. Socializing losses. Upside down reality.
Shifting wealth in unprecedented amounts. More than what’s comprehensible. To monied interests. From ordinary folks.
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Saturday, December 13, 2014
Stock Market Downtrend Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
A nasty week in many markets worldwide. The week started off with a gap down opening after closing last week at SPX 2075. It had another gap down opening on Tuesday, then a third gap down on Wednesday hitting SPX 2024. Thursday the market reversed the volatility with a gap up and hit SPX 2056. Then Friday resumed the turbulence to the downside with another gap down opening, and market ended the week at its low SPX 2002. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 3.65%, the NDX/NAZ lost 2.65%, and the DJ World index lost 3.60%. Economic reports for the week were biased to the upside. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: export/import prices, the PPI, and the monetary base. Next week lots of action. Highlights include the FOMC meeting, Industrial production, Housing, and Options expiration.
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Saturday, December 13, 2014
Overbought Stock Market Pullback...Finally.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The market was begging for it. Day after day we stayed pretty much at overbought levels on all the major oscillators. The RSI's are sometimes staying well above normal overbought levels of 70. Readings in the lower 80's are not abnormal. You sit and wonder how long it can last. You know it's going to finally sell hard, but figuring out that moment is not an easy chore by any means. We have stayed overbought longer than most would have thought possible, and those who shorted at the first signs of overbought paid a big price as the market kept climbing higher.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Stock Market SPX Top Valuations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The prevailing valuations in the lofty US stock markets are increasingly becoming a bone of contention. Wall Street calmly asserts stocks are fairly valued or even cheap, since it has a huge vested interest in keeping people fully-invested. But a growing chorus of dissenters is disputing that idyllic notion, warning that stock valuations are very high and portend great downside risk. Indeed, topping valuations abound.
Since investing is all about buying low and selling high, the price paid for any investment is everything. Buy good companies at cheap prices, and you’ll multiply your wealth over time. But buying those very same good companies at expensive prices radically stunts future gains. While cheap investments have great potential to soar as traders recognize their inherent value, expensive ones have already exhausted their upside.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
Largest Financial Bubble in History - 10 years of 'Why Sell Now?' / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
While finding the end of the largest financial bubble in history has proved very illusive over the last three years for some of the most seasoned market technicians in the world, the last fifteen have allowed us to have many reminders that wild rides to the top have always ended the same.
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Friday, December 12, 2014
A Probable Stock Market Crash Scenario / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Today we are at an equivalent point with the high on October 14, 1987. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
On Wednesday, October 14, 1987, the SPX retested the bottom trendline of its Broadening Wedge in a Minute wave [ii]. Today we crossed inside (for a second time) a more bearish Orthodox Broadening Top in a Minute wave [ii].
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
State of the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
We are seeing normal corrective declines in the broader indexes of late. December has been volatile from day one. Tax selling is obvious to me, and we are seeing extreme oversold set ups in Energy stocks. Insiders have been loading up the last few weeks yet those same stocks are still declining, and we think Hedge funds are taking on heavy losses, and selling is begetting selling.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014
Stock Markets Sell Off Following Negative Global Economic Outlook / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,085 and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Finally Some Stock Market Selling...Nothing Bearish Yet.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
And that's the key to the whole thing. Ask yourself, is the selling that took place today bearish? Answer is that for now, not at all. No heavy push negative on the daily oscillators. No big gap down that closed at or near the lows. Just overbought conditions getting unwound as they need to be. I get tired of staring at 70 RSI's, or higher, on the daily-index charts. Thankfully, they are now all below. Many in the 50's, except the Dow. Safest dividend stocks getting the action, thus, the Dow is still in the mid-to-upper 60's. At least it's an index of only 30 stocks. So yes, solid unwinding on the index sixty-minute charts and some decent unwinding on those key-index-daily charts.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
SPX Breaks Short-term Supports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The short-term uptrend is broken and SPX is trading back inside its larger Orthodox Broadening Top. However, it has also developed a smaller Orthodox Broadening Top (green). In order to fulfill its structure, it should decline to 1960.00-1980.00 in the next couple of days before a bounce. The bounce may either go back to mid-Cycle support/resistance at 2056.70 before proceeding back down to lower levels. Today’s decline may be considered an aggressive sell signal for SPX.
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Monday, December 08, 2014
Still No Short-Term Stock Market Direction As Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,085 and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, December 08, 2014
Stock Market High Level Levitation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - While everything technical points to an overbought condition which should require an adjustment, the exact timing of that correction is for the market itself to decide and reveal.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Stock Market Santa Mania Rally, Dow 18,000 New All Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The stock market's relentless santa rally grind higher on Friday put the Dow within a whisker of trading above Dow 18,000 for the first time ever! The trading session saw the Dow trade upto 17,991 by mid-day and then spend the next 2 hours flirting with a break above Dow 18k before trending lower into the close to still close at a new all time high of Dow 17,948.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Jobs Explode.... Financial's Do As Well..... Stock Market Grinding.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The market received a big jolt this morning. It came from the world of job creation. The market was expecting a decent report with 220k-230k jobs created. Also, there was the hope of a decent increase in hourly wages. A strong showing of some kind that the economy is hanging in there. The market was waiting and hoping that it wouldn't be a bad number since so many economic reports haven't been wonderful. Please, just no number that begins with a 1. Has to be a 2. The number was a 3. 321k to be exact. 100k more than expected. Wages also rose 0.4%, which was really good to see. Things are picking up. Well, at least for the past month.
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Friday, December 05, 2014
Are We In Another 1990’s-Style Super Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Bull markets normally last an average of 4.5 years. By that time, stocks are usually over-valued, the market is over-extended, the Fed is making plans to cool off the enthusiasm, and the bull market/ bear market cycle begins to sequence into the next bear market.
Super bull markets, those that go beyond the norm, have been once in a lifetime anomalies, driven by unusual, life-changing technological transformations. There have been two in the last 100 years.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
SPX Turns Down, XJY Ripe for a Turn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Having re-crossed the trendline of its Ending Diagonal, SPX appears to be headed for the Orthodox Broadening Top at 2060.00. Short-term support at 2058.93 is not very much lower. I expect to see these supports to be taken out quickly.
The NYSE Hi-Lo is back below the 50-day Moving Average, sparking the aggressive sell signal there. The VIX is emerging from its bottom. No signal there, yet.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
Stock Market New Record High As Stocks Slightly Extended Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,085 and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish