Category: Stock Markets 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, March 03, 2014
The S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Stock Market Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: Here is a update in response to a standing request from David England, a retired professor now actively educating investors through his Trader’s Eye website. In his presentations, he likes to disprove the standard message of Wall Street, “Don’t worry! The market will always come back.” I furnished David with some charts, and I now share them with regular visitors to my Advisor Perspectives pages.
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Sunday, March 02, 2014
Stock Market Orthodox Broadening Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
-- VIX closed below its cluster of weekly Model supports after challenging weekly mid-Cycle resistance at 15.63. VIX did not make new lows this week, a non-confirmation of the SPX rally attempts.
SPX is repelled by Cycle Top resistance.
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Saturday, March 01, 2014
Another Stock Market Record High With Some Afternoon Drama / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: Before the US market opened, the Second Estimate of Q4 GDP showed slower growth than previously reported. But the market wasn’t fazed. The S&P 500 rallied for the first hour, assisted by an improvement in Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The index hit is 0.74% intraday high in the early afternoon. However, shortly before 2 PM it began a sudden and fairly dramatic selloff to its -0.36% intraday low — a move that roughly coincided with news of Russian military action in the Ukrainian crisis. The selloff reversed in the final hour, and the index closed with a trimmed gain of 0.28%, setting another record high.
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Saturday, March 01, 2014
Stocks Unconvincing Despite New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The S&P 500 closed at a new record high Friday, but again it was another stumbling, directionless performance. Markets opened higher, perhaps relieved that Q4 GDP was not much worse than forecasts, but then declined on news of heightened tensions in Ukraine. Gains were recovered into the close on late buying as investors realized that despite social media hysteria, a world war is not imminent.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 28, 2014
Stocks at New Highs, But Keep the Champagne on Ice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The S&P 500 closed at a new record high on Thursday, but the mood is far from celebratory. The index has made modest gains this year, a far cry from the fearless risk appetite one would expect to be associated with all-time highs. Instead, nervousness is prevailing over markets, with the S&P 500 closing at these lofty levels after several days of directionless trading.
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Thursday, February 27, 2014
Where’s the Stock Market New All-Time High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: Once again the S&P 500 spent a good part of the day slightly above its all-time closing high of January 15th, and once again it disappointed hopeful market watchers eager for that new high. The index opened in the green, sold into the shallow red, and then rallied to its 0.41% intraday high on the better-than-expected new home sales. It then lost traction and sold off to its -0.24% mid-afternoon intraday low. Ninety minutes later the index closed essentially at the flatline (at three decimal places was a gain of 0.002%).
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Thursday, February 27, 2014
Stock Market Strike Three-You're Out!......Well, Maybe...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Three consecutive days have come and gone, with each day testing above 1850 on the S&P 500 intraday. Each day the S&P 500 failed to complete the breakout. Normally, when a key index fails for three straight days the bulls give up for a while, allowing the bears to do some damage for the very short-term. I said normally. And this should be one of those normal times, but this market has been stubborn to fall, even when it's obvious that it should. That said, I would expect some selling here, but how much is difficult to know. It could be all the way down to key support approximately at 1800, or it could stay above that. It's very unclear, and we all know by now that anything between 1800 and 1850 on the S&P 500 is nothing but emotional noise.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Stock Market Ghosts of Bubbles Past / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The New Homes Sales number came in much higher than expected this morning, and so stocks reversed from their initial slump. They rose to challenge the overhead resistance once again, only to fall back down in the afternoon.
Rinse, wash, repeat.
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
What’s Happening in the Stock Market Today Reminds Me of 1999… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
What year is this—1999?
Some of you might have been active investors in the bull market during the late 90s, as I was, witnessing the S&P 500 soar during that decade. In fact, the bull market was so strong back then that it created a false sense of confidence, as many people quit their regular jobs to become traders. As we all know, this didn’t last forever and the S&P 500 bull market popped and sold off sharply.
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Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Stock Market Breakout Fails...Nothing Bad At All........ / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
We spent the morning watching the futures play around with the flat line to up a four handle at the highs. We were well under S&P 500 1850, or the breakout level, but the bulls were very happy to see the market holding up after poor action on Friday. The bears seemed to be gaining some control, but the futures suggested another story. Nothing tremendous, but at least the bulls were preventing a blast down that would create technical damage for them. The market opened a bit higher, but took little time in doing what the bulls were hoping for. A break over 1850. It traded slightly below for roughly an hour, but when it was clear the bears could not bring the market down, the bulls became braver, the bears gave up, and the market broke through 1850. That's where the day actually got interesting.
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Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Stock Market New Highs… Now What? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Shah Gilani writes: The bulls are running today, being chased by hot mergers and acquisitions news.
As I write this, the S&P 500 is at an all-time high and the Nasdaq Composite is at a 14-year high. The Dow still has a few steps to climb, but there’s a good chance it too will reach for new highs in the next few sessions.
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Monday, February 24, 2014
Stock Market Rogue Rally Nearing Completion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Would you believe that the really took 85 hours and 40 minutes from inception to today’s high at 12:20? The Wave (B) analysis still stands, since the Dow, The Russell 2000 and the Trannies have not made new highs, giving a major non-confirmation of this rally. There is negative divergence at all degrees of trend.
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Monday, February 24, 2014
Stocks Fluctuate Near Their Recent Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, February 24, 2014
S&P 500 In An Uptrend, A Bullish Pattern For Dax / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The US stock market has been moving slightly down on Friday but most likely only for a short-term as a correction within a larger ongoing uptrend. We still expect S&P 500 to move into new all-time highs in the next couple of days, which will be supportive for risk-on currencies, such as EUR, GBP, AUD especially against the Japanese yen.
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Sunday, February 23, 2014
Stock Market More Consolidation / Correction Needed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - New uptrend still in doubt
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, February 23, 2014
World Stock Markets Second-Best Week of 2014 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: At Friday’s close the eight markets on my world watch list collectively had their second-best weekly performance in 2014 (the previous week being the best). Five of the eight posted gains, some quite substantial, and the three that didn’t advance had only fractional setbacks — the S&P 500 being the worst performer, down a tiny 0.13%. After three weeks as the biggest loser, Japan’s Nikkei 225 took the top spot with a 3.86% rally. The UK’s FTSE 100 was up 2.62%, India’s SENSEX 1.64%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 1.12% and France’s CAC 40 0.94%.
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Saturday, February 22, 2014
Stocks Bull Market Over? Are the Bears About to Break...even? / News_Letter / Stock Markets 2014
The Market Oracle NewsletterFebruary 3rd , 2014 Issue # 4 Vol. 8
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Saturday, February 22, 2014
Stock Market Forecast 2014 Crash or Rally? Drone Wars and the Nuclear Apocalypse / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The Market Oracle NewsletterNovember 11th , 2013 Issue # 19 Vol. 7
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Saturday, February 22, 2014
Stock Market Daily Charts Are Fine...Weekly Charts Are Not.....Implications? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The weekly charts are all wrong. The MACD negative divergences, along with negative divergences on the stochastic's, RSI's and histograms make for a very ugly picture. Then there's the daily charts. Nothing really bad there. Nice looking MACD's. Strong RSI's and stochastic's. So what is the message? It's really hard to know, but if we go back in time, the last time the Nasdaq had this type of negative divergence, when it finally kicked in, it was a 13% drop. You never know when it'll kick in, but that was the situation. It doesn't have to be so bad this time, or it could be worse, or obviously somewhere in between. Add in grossly overbought monthly charts and you get the idea things could get ugly soon.
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Saturday, February 22, 2014
Stock Market SPX Double Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
This morning heavy gusts of wind (50-60 mph) came through and knocked out power, phones and internet. We were only restored around 2:30 and there was much to do while getting back online.
SPX is set up for a potential gap down on Monday. There is a run on at least one Russian bank and it appears that the Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. Pray that the truce holds over the weekend, because it if doesn’t, what began as demonstrations for basic human rights may turn into a civil war and may foment ill will between Russia and the U.S.
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